Developments in and the future of the EU

[Verbose]

Regardless, to some extent the future development of EU probably will rest on HOW the Greek situation gets resolved, one way or another...

 

[Akka]

Just wanting to point that Greece is, in fact, recovering. That the recovery is because or in spite of the austerity, and the question about "would have Greece fared better left to its own device or was it in the end helped by the loans of EU" will keep people at each other throat for awhile, though.

 

[Kyriakos]

Just wanting to point that Greece is, in fact, recovering. That the recovery is because or in spite of the austerity, and the question about "would have Greece fared better left to its own device or was it in the end helped by the loans of EU" will keep people at each other throat for awhile, though.

I wish this was true, but it isn't. Not only is the country not recovering, you also have to keep in mind that extortion interest paid now is partly smaller because it was pushed back to 2019. And then - if all goes according to the nice plan of 'recovery' - we would have to be paying three times as much as now each year.
Unemployment is the worst, and most people my age don't even have a job. Moreover, due to a creative way to go around this, the state allows you to work without being secured (ie no medical coverage) for only a small 20% off your pay. This is colonial, to put it succinctly, and not sustainable in any way.

The only possible development will be a future referendum here to quit the euro currency, and default on all debt, which is what will happen.

By the way, yesterday brought some new polls, which show the obvious, ie that this Syriza gov is dead. (16,6%, and its partner gets a 1,6%)

Note: Polls don't include Varoufakis' party, cause that is to officially exist in the 26th of March (ie in a month from now).



ND being the first party now, but that sucks too, given the only good thing its leader has is his first name - Kyriakos

 

[Yeekim]

Wow. The unemployment is brutal indeed.

Makes one wonder how Greece manages to show a decent growth of GDP like that.

The only possible development will be a future referendum here to quit the euro currency, and default on all debt, which is what will happen.

Would be painful, but go a long way towards restoring my respect for Greece.

 

[Kyriakos]

^No one cares about your respect or lack of it for Greece.
You may think what you want, but know that no one here would try to cause issues for Estonia when it was begging to be allowed into the Eu, along with the rest of the former soviet block.

 

[Yeekim]

^No one cares about your respect or lack of it for Greece.

Where have I ever implied otherwise that you felt the need to point it out? However, my unimportant opinion in the matter might be rather well aligned with mode opinion in EU.

You may think what you want, but know that no one here would try to cause issues for Estonia when it was begging to be allowed into the Eu, along with the rest of the former soviet block.

And? You're under impression that we've been ungrateful or something?

 

[Arakhor]

Kyriakos likes labouring under his country's international oppression, as if he were Tantalus and Europe was pitiless Zeus.

 

[Verbose]

Greece is not in some kind of "colonial" situation. It's deep in the cacky because it comprehensively failed at running a functioning national economy. Certainly the roof caved in on it in ways no other nations really experienced due to the Lehmann Brothers crash and attendant misery. But the reasons Greece got it harder than anyone else were already there, in Greece. Which is also why Greece isn't really managing to shift out of its crisis. And why these very strident and urgent demands on Greece to comprehensively reform — before anyone will let it touch serious money again — aren't going away. And it's Greece that has to do it.

If Greece WAS in fact roped into an outright colonial situation, whomever was doing the roping could then always take Greek finances and politics apart, and put the pieces back together some other way, to see if that might work better. But since it's NOT, it's Greece that has to do it all by its lonesome. The "colonial" bit is simply that Greece is being compared to other nations, and found wanting. And WILL be found wanting potentially forever, because damned if anyone can see what Greece could or should to do restore actual confidence in it. It's just best foot forward, toe the line, when asked to jump, say "How high?", and eventually a level of trust will establish itself, eventually... Sure, it might look somehow "colonial". It's almost certified to FEEL like it, often. But colonial it is not. If Greece was a colony, it would get forcibly retooled. But it's not. So here we all are, stuck with holding this bucket of feces of a situation.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Just wanting to point that Greece is, in fact, recovering. That the recovery is because or in spite of the austerity, and the question about "would have Greece fared better left to its own device or was it in the end helped by the loans of EU" will keep people at each other throat for awhile, though.

Yes, that is true. But what is true as well is that Europe should set up internal mechanisms in order to react much faster than it did with Greece.

The crisis started in 2010 and it's not untill 2017 that interest rates on Greek government bonds got back to their pre-crisis level. This has considerably increased damages on the Greek economy, and it has made the European financial contribution only bigger as a consequence. Reacting so slowly has been beneficial to absolutely no one.

 

[Kyriakos]

Greece is not in some kind of "colonial" situation. It's deep in the cacky because it comprehensively failed at running a functioning national economy. Certainly the roof caved in on it in ways no other nations really experienced due to the Lehmann Brothers crash and attendant misery. But the reasons Greece got it harder than anyone else were already there, in Greece. Which is also why Greece isn't really managing to shift out of its crisis. And why these very strident and urgent demands on Greece to comprehensively reform — before anyone will let it touch serious money again — aren't going away. And it's Greece that has to do it.

If Greece WAS in fact roped into an outright colonial situation, whomever was doing the roping could then always take Greek finances and politics apart, and put the pieces back together some other way, to see if that might work better. But since it's NOT, it's Greece that has to do it all by its lonesome. The "colonial" bit is simply that Greece is being compared to other nations, and found wanting. And WILL be found wanting potentially forever, because damned if anyone can see what Greece could or should to do restore actual confidence in it. It's just best foot forward, toe the line, when asked to jump, say "How high?", and eventually a level of trust will establish itself, eventually... Sure, it might look somehow "colonial". It's almost certified to FEEL like it, often. But colonial it is not. If Greece was a colony, it would get forcibly retooled. But it's not. So here we all are, stuck with holding this bucket of feces of a situation.

Ehm, your view has zero touch with reality given you fail to notice that this is what colonialism is when you can't invade with a military; you do it with local politicians and a charade of shaming. And given the forum isn't some personal antagonism, i won't bother responding to you again.

Kyriakos likes labouring under his country's international oppression, as if he were Tantalus and Europe was pitiless Zeus.

No, the eu isn't Zeus. Morelike Baal, but mostly Mamon

 

[Marla_Singer]

Ehm, your view has zero touch with reality given you fail to notice that this is what colonialism is when you can't invade with a military; you do it with local politicians and a charade of shaming. And given the forum isn't some personal antagonism, i won't bother responding to you again.

Do you remember the crisis once Greece voted the referendum against austerity? Germany wanted Greece out of the euro then, it's Alexis Tsipras then who finally accepted austerity in order to stay in the euro zone.

Do you believe Alexis Tsipras behaved this way because he was a traitor? No he did so because he had explored all the other alternatives, and they all turned out even worse for Greek people than the austerity plan. Greece wasn't in position then to build an even remotely reliable national currency: its value would have been zero. Greek people would have lost all their savings, but even worse than that, it wouldn't even have solved the financial issue for Greece. Yes, the Greek debt would have disappeared, but Greece would still be running on a deficit with this time no creditor ready to finance it.

There was simply no other choice. Now yes, Tsipras lied to you, but he did so in making you believe austerity could be avoided, not in eventually applying it. Resisting to austerity has only made austerity even worse.

 

[Hrothbern]

By the way, yesterday brought some new polls, which show the obvious, ie that this Syriza gov is dead. (16,6%, and its partner gets a 1,6%)

This is part of the "trust" problem.

The Greek people show by these numbers that they do not trust the way forward of this government.

AND
The EU will only trust Greece when Greece is able to get stability of allignment between the people and their government.
The EU wants a Greek government that is able to make deals with the EU that last longer than 1 government period.
(There was much bigger trust by the EU in promises and actions in Sweden when they were down)

Varoufakis

If he is able to get a government that:
A. lasts longer than 1 government period
B. has a mindset that alligns enough with the EU
It could be possible that the EU will find some ways to reduce austerity pressure on Greece.
Whereby noted that I think the EU does fear discontinuities in the current austerity course of Italy and Spain much more, because of their size.
Greece will stay, I think, a kind of disciplining example to keep pressure on Italy and Spain.

If I look at the difficult negotiations currently started to fill up the financial gap of the Brexit,
it would already be something when the rich EU members are going to compenstate for just that, to keep the level of project funding intact towards the weak members,
But I guess no room for additional efforts, unless something special happens.
All in all: I am afraid that Greece is in a tough spot for a while

 

[Kyriakos]

Do you remember the crisis once Greece voted the referendum against austerity? Germany wanted Greece out of the euro then, it's Alexis Tsipras then who finally accepted austerity in order to stay in the euro zone.

Do you believe Alexis Tsipras behaved this way because he was a traitor? No he did so because he had explored all the other alternatives, and they all turned out even worse for Greek people than the austerity plan. Greece wasn't in position then to build an even remotely reliable national currency: its value would have been zero. Greek people would have lost all their savings, but even worse than that, it wouldn't even have solved the financial issue for Greece. Yes, the Greek debt would have disappeared, but Greece would still be running on a deficit with this time no creditor ready to finance it.

There was simply no other choice. Now yes, Tsipras lied to you, but he did so in making you believe austerity could be avoided, not in eventually applying it. Resisting to austerity has only made austerity even worse.

Austerity has been going on for a full decade now. People don't tend to live for 100 years, so i am not sure who you think would accept this kind of situation if they were
1) living in it
2) had a working mind

The answer should be rather obvious.
Re Tsipras, (also @Hrothbern) he was elected for the exact opposite of that which he did; to keep him would be also impossible. Voters can be misled, it happens literally in all countries. But no country has the mentality of an actual slave, though many have the mentality of small-dog in a dog-piling. Greece happens to have neither - despite its many other issues with population traits; many people here are of very low quality but - guess what - that also is true in all other societies including all other euro societies.

That said, i am taking a leave from this thread, cause i don't see the point for me to post here as if it changes something.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Well, maybe the worst is behind you in Greece. Merkel has been weakened by her parliament crisis and there's a new French President which is better appreciated in Brussels.

EU creditors to start Greece debt-relief talks
BBC | 23 January 2018

EU creditors have agreed to start talks on possible debt relief for Greece as the country prepares to leave an eight-year bailout programme.

Greece's public debt totals 180% of its economy and the talks will focus on how to link any relief to economic results. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has long been in favour of substantial debt relief but has faced opposition from countries like Germany. The eurozone has also agreed in principle to pay out new loans.

Why give Greece debt relief?

The IMF says Greece's debt is "unsustainable" and has insisted on substantial relief from European creditors as a condition to join the current and third bailout, which ends in August. Eurozone countries have provided some debt relief already, in the form of lower interest rates and extended repayment periods, but some have been reluctant to go any further. Several face domestic political pressure over providing debt relief - it does not go down well to be seen rescuing foreign governments from what are seen as the consequences of their own irresponsibility.

But meeting in Brussels, the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers agreed to start "technical work" on a "growth-adjustment mechanism, as part of the medium-term debt relief measures to be implemented, if needed". Such an idea was first proposed by France and would see more relief should Greece's economic growth disappoint in the future, Euclid Tsakalotos, Greece's Finance Minister, was quoted by the Financial Times newspaper as saying.

Read more:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42787969

 

[Hrothbern]

(Re Tsipras, (also @Hrothbern) he was elected for the exact opposite of that which he did; to keep him would be also impossible. Voters can be misled, it happens literally in all countries. But no country has the mentality of an actual slave,

True.
The change Tsipras made was for a big part "a necessity" to stay alligned to the EU.
His voters clearly do not agree with that change considering that very, very low popularity his government has now.
Which shows how big the gap really is between the Greek people and the EU "necessities".
IF that gap continues (no change by the EU, no change by the people), a Greek government, after being voted in position, has the dilemma how to strike the balance, middleground, side up with the people or side up with the EU (as Tsipras did).
The real issue in terms of practical politics (the art or skill of the possible) is that gap between an impossible austerity in Greece and some EU wide principles of the EU.

 

[Marla_Singer]

The change Tsipras made was for a big part "a necessity" to stay alligned to the EU.
His voters clearly do not agree with that change considering that very, very low popularity his government has now.
Which shows how big the gap really is between the Greek people and the EU "necessities".
IF that gap continues (no change by the EU, no change by the people), a Greek government, after being voted in position, has the dilemma how to strike the balance, middleground, side up with the people or side up with the EU (as Tsipras did).
The real issue in terms of practical politics (the art or skill of the possible) is that gap between an impossible austerity in Greece and some EU wide principles of the EU.

I strongly disagree.

This was in no way about choosing between the people and "EU principles", this was about financing the Greek state and its public workers. There was simply no better alternative to simply pay the monthly wages in the administration.

It seems people forget that the whole crisis happened because Greece was no longer able to finance itself through the financial markets. It's not the first country facing such crisis, and the answer has always been an IMF intervention with a financial aid given in return of spending cuts in the administration. EU was involved here only because Greece is part of the euro zone. If it wouldn't, then the IMF would have still made the same dirty job.

Now yes, we can wonder whether the EU hasn't been too harsh in its conditions to give Greece an access to credit. As stated in the article I've posted above, there are ongoing discussion about granting debt-relief to Greece as it is a burden which won't help the country to recover any faster. But those debt-relief would be conditionned to evidence that Greece has taken back control of its budget deficit. Once again I repeat, euro or not, this would have changed nothing about that.

 

[Yeekim]

If not for euro, Greece could have devalued the drachma.
Of course, this would have wiped savings and hurt credit ratings as well.
And they never ever could have borrowed as much in the first place...

 

[Akka]

Wow. The unemployment is brutal indeed.

Spain had been in an even worse situation (25 % unemployed) a few years back.

 

[innonimatu]

This was in no way about choosing between the people and "EU principles", this was about financing the Greek state and its public workers. There was simply no better alternative to simply pay the monthly wages in the administration.

Tsipras claimed that. Voters in the referendum he called voted against it. And he did what a good european does, ignored the result of the referendum and did as Brussels wanted... Because democracy less important that... "the economy"? "the union"? "financial stability"? Brussels always knows best.

It seems people forget that the whole crisis happened because Greece was no longer able to finance itself through the financial markets. It's not the first country facing such crisis, and the answer has always been an IMF intervention with a financial aid given in return of spending cuts in the administration. EU was involved here only because Greece is part of the euro zone. If it wouldn't, then the IMF would have still made the same dirty job.

I do recall countries telling the IMF to **** off. Malaysia did it in the asian crisis of 1998, did much better that obedient Indonesia. But don't let that spoil the narrative of inevitability... better not let people know they have a choice, right?

 

[Marla_Singer]

Tsipras claimed that. Voters in the referendum he called voted against it. And he did what a good european does, ignored the result of the referendum and did as Brussels wanted... Because democracy less important that... "the economy"? "the union"? "financial stability"? Brussels always knows best.

Because democracy is less important than people's wages.