Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Gori the Grey]

She's got the crowd chanting "U S A!" Man, that feels good to hear.

And he made a couch reference!

 

[Voidwalkin]

I wonder what the strategy is here.

It may be she just likes his politics, him personally, or thinks highly of his ability.

I also wonder if it's meant to deflect criticism from an upcoming policy position expected to disappoint progressives. Gaza policy stands out here, because she isn't going to do anything unpopular with Dems on abortion. I wouldn't be surprised is the move is A; appease progressives while supporting maintenance of the status quo, or B, support ending arms shipments, which could complicate things with Shapiro.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Did you watch him?

Just watch him and you won't have any question.

 

[Ajidica]

Who would have thought the governor from Minnesota would end up a VP candidate?
When he first started showing up on lists I assumed it was only to round out the numbers.

I think it is a good choice for Harris. Walz is unthreatening, not a professional weirdo (like a lot of politicians are across the aisle), and solid progressive credentials to build enthusiasm.
Walz's and the DFLs big legislative accomplishments over the last few years have been a lot small but solid things that are hard for people to get butthurt about.

 

[Core Imposter]

A "play it safe" choice. She thinks she is winning. A lot has fallen in her lap.

 

[Angst]

a surprise vp. like a lot of people, i figured the dems would reach into the middle and pick a republican-esque democrat. this was more leftesque than expected.

i don't think the appeal of walz will be completely lost on the centre. he's like... a former teacher, he coached football, he has working class appeal, talks like a normal person, kind, stuff like that. while he has some bite when he needs to. his policies are a bit progressive, but he seems completely down to earth while not being boring. this quite contrasts with the expectations of politicians being upper class scrupulous people. is he that? i don't know him well enough. i'm talking about the optics. and like... contrast his vibe with trump and vance. so the pick may be more strategic than all-in progressive whatever that he may appear to be. like, you can pick someone who has moderate appeal but seems like a "political class" nepobaby, or you can pick a former school teacher who is straightforward, energetic, normal, and has tried to do good for his state.

edit: oh, and he's also formerly served in some branch of the military, i forget which. all these are real appeals.

 

[Ajidica]

A "play it safe" choice. She thinks she is winning. A lot has fallen in her lap.

Be honest, you would post that no matter who she chose.

 

[Core Imposter]

Shapiro would have been a high-risk high-reward choice.

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

Shapiro would have been a high-risk high-reward choice.

I've been hearing that people think Shaprio is too ambitious and would upstage Harris.

What she needed was someone like Biden in 2008. Someone who has the credentials, who knows when to stand in the back and be charismatic, and who can say things that a president can't say, like calling Vance a couchfudger without actually saying it in a campaign speech.

Also, I've only recently learned that Waltz is only 6 months older than Harris.

 

[Core Imposter]

I recently learned that there is no T in Walz's name.

The secret reason that Walz was selected was to nail down that rural district in Nebraska, where he was born. That's one electoral vote. Gotta guard against the tie.

 

[choxorn]

Walz's Midwestern Dad Energy is fantastic

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

I recently learned that there is no T in Walz's name.

That's going to be something I'm going to have to get used to.

 

[KMRblue1027]

For those who say Shapiro would have been a better pick you do realize he's a strong supporter of school vouchers right? Forget the questionable stuff on Gaza or the potential sexual harassment stuff that's not some moderate postion in education. That's a radical right-wing stance that even many Republicans are wary about for good reason as the policy is publicly disastrous. You'd lose way more center and left voters from that then any gain otherwise.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

For those who say Shapiro would have been a better pick you do realize he's a strong supporter of school vouchers right? Forget the questionable stuff on Gaza or the potential sexual harassment stuff that's not some moderate postion in education. That's a radical right-wing stance that even many Republicans are wary about for good reason as the policy is publicly disastrous. You'd lose way more center and left voters from that then any gain otherwise.

That wasn't my concern, at least; my concern is that in a response to Trump picking someone like Vance (who does nothing for him), Harris at least had an opportunity to say her side deserves to stretch out some more. Someone who won his last race by 15 points (Shaprio) in 2022 does do that. Walz does not do that.
Though I guess it could be too early to tell.
I'm sure you will hear much negativity of Walz's tenure in the future, then dismiss it, but simply for the opposite reasons you criticize Shaprio for now (e.g. "because Walz is a good progressive!" etc.)

But perhaps I'm just wasting my time around here: in light of Trump being her opponent, whatever Harris does will automatically be the greatest thing ever. Because that's how it has to be, for someone who already dropped out of her own presidential run before 1 vote was cast, and basically had this whole thing handed to her with Biden stepping down...Because, in my estimation, she is just not particularly good. (Better than Trump, perhaps yes).

I would only advise others to start picturing things from the perspective of someone who has not made up their mind yet...I have my doubts...

Here's just one opinion, but Nate Silver estimates that the Walz pick was designed to cause the least amount of problems for Democrat supporters and for them to not appear divided (particularly over Gaza, which I think the party discounts at its peril). Now how that exactly transfers to more votes being generated among independents than not, is anyone's guess:

Tim Walz is a Minnesota Nice choice

It's fine. But Shapiro was the higher-upside option that was probably worth the risk.

www.natesilver.net

 

[KMRblue1027]

He only won by 15 because he was against a literal crazy person. Shapiro is useless and you're majorly underestimating how much his right leaning stances would hurt in turnout which is way more important now. Undecideds don't exist in large numbers and those that are aren't moderate. The moderate undecided is a myth.

The Moderate Middle Is A Myth

Graphics by Ella Koeze Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the elec…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

I would only argue that Shapiro's "right leaning" stances as previously mentioned only conflict with teachers' unions re: school vouchers and a segment of anti-Israel protestors on the Gaza issue. Perhaps these groups would have presented some form of resistance at the convention, yes, but I do not find them particularly representative of the nation as a whole. Though I imagine this was the exact calculation Harris was running...

 

[EnglishEdward]

He only won by 15 because he was against a literal crazy person. Shapiro is useless and you're majorly underestimating how much his right leaning stances would hurt in turnout which is way more important now. Undecideds don't exist in large numbers and those that are aren't moderate. The moderate undecided is a myth.

The Moderate Middle Is A Myth

Graphics by Ella Koeze Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Independent voters will decide the election. Or better yet: Moderate voters will decide the elec…

fivethirtyeight.com

Tim Walz also has a better appearance (amiable grand fatherly) than Josh Shapiro (i'm repossessing your privates), and one lawyer is enough.

 

[Gori the Grey]

That's going to be something I'm going to have to get used to.

Trump wanted a wall; Kamala got a walls.

(Better than Trump, perhaps yes).

That's all that's necessary. Biden says that in campaigning he has always had a mantra, "I don't have to be better than the Almighty, just better than the alternative."

 

[Core Imposter]

It appears that Harris and Wolz is the leadership that this country deserves.

Hope ever stirs in the hearts of men.

 

[Gori the Grey]

A lot has fallen in her lap.

And a lot hasn't. The very first contrast she has drawn is Prosecutor vs Felon. She could only do that as a result of having served the people of California as their AG for seven years--to a high enough standard to get her then elected senator. She has put in the work to be able to have that contrast point. That's hers; no one gave it to her and no one can take it away from her.

The poll numbers Biden was running against Trump weren't guaranteed to be hers. And every point she's advanced from there in the last two weeks is all because people like her specifically as a candidate and the message she's running on.