Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Yeekim]

If your law requires armies of thugs and violence to enforce, regardless of how just that law is, you're still on the hook for the human rights abuses that result.

Any law ultimately requires violence to enforce...

In the US case what's fascist is allowing immigration law to create a floating population of over 10 million people in the country on a permanent basis with no legal protections. The creation of populations with no legal protections really is fascism 101 (@Estebonrober).

You're saying it was fascist to allow for the entry of illegals, whereas their expulsion is not.

 

[Gorbles]

You're saying it was fascist to allow for the entry of illegals, whereas their expulsion is not.

No, that's not what he's saying. What he is saying is clear in the quote you're responding to, so I don't really understand how you can misinterpret him so thoroughly.

 

[Farm Boy]

My suspicion is that complaints about inflation and inflation as an issue will fade, regardless of the realities of actual inflation. With Trump in the White House, conservative media will no longer push inflation as an issue and so the electorate will no longer see it as an issue.

There is also the strong possibility/probability that, as is ironically, and repeatedly the case... the policies pursued by the Democratic administration, that got the country through the crisis caused by the prior Republican administration, have the long term effect of creating positive economic conditions, that the incoming Republican administration takes credit for, then promptly institutes policies that crash the economy, that Democrats are then called upon to fix... rinse, repeat...

I've been beating the drum of how much of produce price is the labor... much of which is coming out of relatively new higher wage states, and the complaints of inflation are coming from people who say things like "nobody I know got a raise." They aren't lying, they're being priced out of the labor of the food distribution chain based, in significant part, on regional economic differences(people who whine about cost of living can sort of just shove it). That sounds familiar, right?

So, if your take on the deportations is accurate, what is the historical precedent? It'll drive the labor under table and without benefits. Prices, if they do it "right historically" might actually come down when your meat packers and strawberry pickers are appropriately scared and keeping their heads down again. For those of you who eat fruit, at any rate.

If this is the most important economic issue people voted on, and "it's the economy stupid," the county level election maps(assuming we know the population density is a different map represented in part in this one) is a telling indicator of shared economic interests.

Spoiler :

 

[Bamspeedy]

France is bigger than California with half more people and we still get north of 90 % votes counted before midnight. And it's entirely paper, counted by hand and without any electronic machine. That's not a problem of scale, that's a problem of terrible organisation.

How many things do you vote for on a single ballot?

I voted on i think it was 6 races, then there was an additional 2 uncontested races. Then on the back there was 2 ballot propositions (giving non citizens who are legal residents the right to vote, and if the local school can exceed its budget). So i had 10 things to vote for. So someone has to count my ballot 10 times.

In california there was 10 ballot propostions, so their ballots might have to be counted nearly 20 times. If ballots arent finished being counted on election night, scheduling a time to continue the counting with volunteers who may have other full time jobs they need to return to.....waiting for overseas ballots to come in, etc.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Imagine. 80 Gazas along the Mediterranean coast. A collection of Old Towns turned into walled ghettos and concrete hovels thrown up and wrapped in barbed wire.

We're sleepwalking into it either way. Would it really be so bad to attempt integration?

For stability and the planet, depopulation in the developed world is preferable.

Immigration to replacement level birthrates is a recipe for some kind of structure that can reconcile populations with different views and values. Empire, in other words. I have no interest in that.

 

[Akka]

How many things do you vote for on a single ballot?
I voted on i think it was 6 races, then there was an additional 2 uncontested races. Then on the back there was 2 ballot propositions (giving non citizens who are legal residents the right to vote, and if the local school can exceed its budget). So i had 10 things to vote for. So someone has to count my ballot 10 times.

In california there was 10 ballot propostions, so their ballots might have to be counted nearly 20 times. If ballots arent finished being counted on election night, scheduling a time to continue the counting with volunteers who may have other full time jobs they need to return to.....waiting for overseas ballots to come in, etc.

I'd say it illustrates the problem of organisation here. You shouldn't have so many points on one ballot, that's just a mess.

 

[Farm Boy]

Empire, in other words. I have no interest in that.

Turn up the heat on that chunky stew, the melting pot returneth.

 

[Senethro]

For stability and the planet, depopulation in the developed world is preferable.

Immigration to replacement level birthrates is a recipe for some kind of structure that can reconcile populations with different views and values. Empire, in other words. I have no interest in that.

And your wishes for it to be so will count for nothing. Its going to happen. It should best be handled in a planned and least harmful manner. Denialism will ensure it happens in a bad way.

 

[choxorn]

What is your idea then? Everyone is welcome to stay everywhere?

Honestly? Yeah, more or less, I don't actually see what the problem with letting people live where they want to is, as long as they're not causing problems for the people around them (which the vast majority of illegal immigrants aren't). Why does which side of a line you were born on prevent you from living somewhere?

 

[Lexicus]

It's funny you say yourself you'd push for replacing one population by another, but that it's not doing that is a national suicide.
True orwellian language.

Do you deny that birth rates among the native-born population of essentially every Western country are well below replacement level? If not, then you know it is a question of whether the population will simply decline or whether it will be replaced by immigrants. If you do deny that, then let me know when you are willing to join us in reality.

On a broader note, I think this point gets at differing definitions of the polity between Europe and the US. The US is not a nation in the conventional sense, it is rather made up of people of many nations (or no nation, as the case may be; many Americans are arguably not meaningfully part of any nation). The states of Europe tend to be conceived as the national states of particular nations (France being the state of the French nation for example). A slightly different point is exactly how porous the boundaries of the nation are. How easy is it for a person to become French? Evidently it is not easy, if immigration is considered to be a "replacement" of the French people rather than an increase in their numbers.

In the US we generally tend to see immigration as increasing the number of Americans rather than replacing Americans. It is therefore not clear what "replacing" the American people would even mean, unless what you actually mean is replacing white people, which...well...good luck making the whites have more babies is all I really got to say about that. I don't think you can terrorize women into returning to the social conditions of the 19th century, but I guess you can try.

So, if your take on the deportations is accurate, what is the historical precedent? It'll drive the labor under table and without benefits. Prices, if they do it "right historically" might actually come down when your meat packers and strawberry pickers are appropriately scared and keeping their heads down again. For those of you who eat fruit, at any rate.

This gets right back into what Sommerswerd and I were discussing. This may well be true if the deportation is just going to be performative. If they are serious about deporting 11 millions and not letting any more in, then you're likely to see not just skyrocketing prices but outright shortages of many goods. The price of the labor will rise accordingly, and then I guess we'll have a new equilibrium where you can get a package of strawberries for like $60? I have a feeling people won't like this.

Anyway, I appreciate the honesty of this post. "Deport the illegals" sure sounds better than "terrorize the workers picking my strawberries so they accept lower wages so I can pay less for strawberries."

 

[Farm Boy]

Or hey, check those coasts, they live in an alternative money universe. That's why they think printing it is free. But yeah, there is more than one thing going on at a time.

You don't need to overappreciate me, I don't hire agricultural labor, I am agricultural labor.

 

[Zardnaar]

I agree that the start of the current schism was the Clinton administration.

Newt Gingrich gets blamed for it commonly, but I have argued that there was an even earlier catalyst.

My take on it has been that what really caused the rift, was that after the Republicans winning near total EC victories in 1984 (Reagan) and 1988 (Papa Bush), the Republicans expected to do the same in 1992 but Ross Perot's unusually strong third party run was perceived to have spoiled it. That led to a bitterness among Republicans that Clinton was illegitimate, having won by a plurality, rather than majority, which was, in their view, made possible only by Perot's candidacy. This bitterness was expressed in the resounding wins of Republicans in 1994 and compounded by Clinton winning in 1996, again in the perception of Republicans because of Ross Perot running (after pledging not to).

That bitterness over the Clinton wins were what fueled/justified the scorched earth approach of Gingrich and the Monica Lewinsky scandal/impeachment, which in turn led to Gore (Donna Brazile)'s disastrous decision to distance Gore's campaign from Clinton, which in turn led to Gore's needlessly close loss to Baby Bush in 2000, which led to Democrats seeing Baby Bush as illegitimate... and so on... you know the rest...

But it all started with Clinton's plurality election upset in 1992.

My earlier catalyst is an event. Vietnam War.

 

[Lexicus]

You don't need to overappreciate me, I don't hire agricultural labor, I am agricultural labor.

Oh that wasn't a veiled insult or anything, I was being serious. Terrorizing people into accepting horsehockey working conditions (including pay) is the point of our immigration policy, more or less. We need more honesty about that.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I'd say it illustrates the problem of organisation here. You shouldn't have so many points on one ballot, that's just a mess.

My ballot was 2 sides of a legal page and small print: federal races (3), state races (2), city races (2), constitution amendments (4), bonds (12) and judge retention (20)

 

[Farm Boy]

Oh that wasn't a veiled insult or anything, I was being serious. Terrorizing people into accepting horsehocky working conditions (including pay) is the point of our immigration policy, more or less. We need more honesty about that.

There are borders for economic regulatory reasons as well as social ones. But we're prohibited from protecting ourselves from other US states. So what are the options left? Historically, again, considering the ambulances will still come for them... gentler than a lot of options will be. The youngest kids are in in with birthright citizenship. My party abandoned the path to citizenship when it started courting the unions. Will yours pick up the the dropped sword?

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

it seems a little ironic to me to blame Biden now and lay the loss at his feet when everyone was holding up "Thank You Joe" signs at the convention. When we thought Harris could win, he was the hero, but now that it didn't go our way, he's the villain? I don't know...that doesn't seem right. Its a catch 22. If he'd stayed in, its his fault we lost, but he dropped out and its still his fault?

The other possibility is that Biden simply dropped out too late for it to make much difference, despite getting praise for it in certain quarters...

fwiw, I think he had a ploy to get reelected and then resign for health reasons, but his timing was (way) off.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

PA State Supreme Court orders counties to not count mail-in ballots without a date

Pennsylvania’s Top Court Tells Counties to Stop Defying Its Ballot Order

The decision came after officials in at least four counties had ignored the court’s pre-election guidance not to count mail ballots that were undated or misdated.

www.nytimes.com

[non paywalled version]:

Pennsylvania’s Top Court Tells Counties to Stop Defying Its Ballot Order​

The decision came after officials in at least four counties had ignored the court’s pre-election guidance not to count mail ballots that were undated or misdated.

Listen to this article · 4:35 min Learn more

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Processing ballots on Election Day in Philadelphia. Credit...Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times

By Nick Corasaniti
Nov. 18, 2024Updated 6:45 p.m. ET
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday directed county election officials to stop defying the court’s guidance not to count mail ballots that were missing dates or had errors in the date field on the outer return envelope.
Last week, officials in several counties — including Bucks, Philadelphia and Montgomery — decided to count mail ballots with such errors on the outer envelope. They argued that the State Supreme Court’s pre-election guidance to throw out such ballots had not been decided on the merits, allowing them to interpret the election code and count the ballots.
The decision to count the ballots — about 400 in Bucks County, 600 in Philadelphia and an unspecified total in Montgomery — immediately became a source of controversy in the state’s contentious race for U.S. Senate. Dave McCormick, the Republican challenger, is leading Senator Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent, by about 17,000 votes. The margin, less than half of a percentage point, has set off an automatic recount in Pennsylvania under state law.
The State Supreme Court’s decision tried to leave no room for interpretation for local election officials to continue to count the ballots.

“All Respondents, including the Boards of Elections in Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia County, SHALL COMPLY with the prior rulings of this Court,” the court wrote.
In a concurring opinion, Justice P. Kevin Brobson, a Republican, warned officials that they did not have the “authority to ignore Election Code provisions that they believe are unconstitutional.”
“Only the courts under our charter may declare a statute, or provision thereof, unconstitutional,” Justice Brobson wrote.
The moves by the election commissions had put a new spotlight on the role of local election officials in post-election decisions and certification of results.
During a pre-election period awash in litigation, legal experts expressed concerns about rogue election officials acting outside the law, potentially refusing to certify an election or removing voters from the rolls.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, issued a statement on Monday both criticizing lawmakers for failing to clarify vagueness in state election law, and calling on local officials to now heed the court’s order.
“The Department of State had advised counties repeatedly of their duty to segregate challenged provisional ballots and undated ballots in anticipation of a ruling by the court,” Mr. Shapiro said. “The court has now ruled on the counting of these ballots specific to the Nov. 5, 2024, election, and I expect all county election officials to adhere to this ruling and all the applicable laws governing our elections.”
He added that “any insinuation that our laws can be ignored or do not matter is irresponsible and does damage to faith in our electoral process.”
Neil Makhija, the Democratic chair of the Montgomery County board of elections, said in a statement that he would “respect the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s opinion, which, unfortunately, means that thousands of votes cast by lawfully registered citizens will be thrown out in this election.”
He added that he hoped the court would revisit the merits of the legal questions regarding undated or misdated ballots before the next election.

Lisa Deeley, a Democratic commissioner from Philadelphia, said the decision was “being reviewed by our lawyers.”
“Regardless of next steps, I will continue to fight, through every viable legal avenue, to make sure that we are enfranchising eligible voters, not disenfranchising,” Ms. Deeley said.
Robert Harvie Jr., the chairman of the Bucks County board and a Democrat, said in a statement that the ruling from the court on Monday was “precisely the clarity we were seeking from the courts in this matter” and that the board “will of course comply with the order of the court.”
Mr. Harvie also posted the partisan breakdown of the 407 ballots in question, showing Mr. Casey receiving 225 and Mr. McCormick 182. “These numbers make clear, as has been known by both parties, that these votes were never going to alter the outcome of this race,” Mr. Harvie said.
The three counties vary in their political makeup. In Philadelphia and Montgomery counties, registered Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans; Bucks County has more registered Republican voters than Democrats.
A correction was made on
Nov. 18, 2024
:
An earlier version of this article referred incorrectly to the court’s decision. While it was a “per curiam” decision from the court, meaning that it was a joint ruling not signed by any particular justice, it was not unanimous.

Thought this would be obvious; apparently not.
But I guess each post office is different, and there may be some that simply don't date the envelope, or miss some. (I've certainly seen it at my workplace).

As of now, in the US senate race, Bob Casey (D) has yet to concede to Dave McCormick (R), as I guess he thinks the recount will vindicate him. A recount is allowed if the difference is 0.5% of all votes cast.

 

[choxorn]

In the US we generally tend to see immigration as increasing the number of Americans rather than replacing Americans.

Well, generally yes, but as Trump's continued popularity proves, quite a few Americans, well, you said it:

It is therefore not clear what "replacing" the American people would even mean, unless what you actually mean is replacing white people,

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that some of the descendants of the people who created a national identity out of replacing indigenous people with themselves would end up irrationally fearing that someone would do unto them what their great-great-great-grandparents had done unto others.

 

[Lexicus]

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that some of the descendants of the people who created a national identity out of replacing indigenous people with themselves would end up irrationally fearing that someone would do unto them what their great-great-great-grandparents had done unto others.

There's no question this has been a matter of contention for much of our history, with a significant % of people wanting to restrict Americanness to whatever conception of "white" was prevalent at the time.

Of course, contra the absurd claims that have been made in this thread, the US experienced much higher immigration levels in the late 19th century than currently, and the current situation in the US is that our population growth is entirely due to immigration.

Today the white nationalists are a minority, probably a smaller minority than they've ever been. Trump winning this election was not a mandate to restrict Americanness to white people only, whatever some people might want to make of it.

 

[Lexicus]

So what are the options left?

You know the only real option, but you're afraid of it.