Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
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The policy has been that the military cannot be armed at the border, thanks in part to this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esequ...Hernández Jr.,the United States–Mexico border.
I can't imagine the U.S. military handling this without many a fubarity.
Traffic-related deaths are / were equivalent to respiratory disease-related deaths over here, statistically. I'm not sure "less" is relevant.
Estebonrober
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Amnesty for all. Yes, this is the first play in the fascist playbook.
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- Fear of difference. “The first appeal of a fascist or prematurely fascist movement is an appeal against the intruders. Thus Ur-Fascism is racist by definition.”
- Appeal to social frustration. “[…] one of the most typical features of the historical fascism was the appeal to a frustrated middle class, a class suffering from an economic crisis or feelings of political humiliation, and frightened by the pressure of lower social groups.
- The obsession with a plot. “The followers must feel besieged. The easiest way to solve the plot is the appeal to xenophobia.”
I will not, fight back by all means available.
I think the Fugitive Slave Act is way too remote to be relevant here, but as an aside... I wonder if the slave owner involved in the Christina riot, Edward Gorsuch, is an ancestor of our SCOTUS Justice Neil Gorsuch... would be an interesting and somewhat ironic bit of trivia if that was the case.
This is my cynical view of the situation.
I can see the theoretical potential for a similar incident, but again... I'm wondering if we've ever had something like this in the context of mass deportation, or even individual deportation. I can't remember anything like that ever being featured on the news.
My expectation is that they will be going for a big raid(s), at a farm, factory, assembly plant, food processing facility, or shipping warehouse/dock, where they can have footage of a large scale roundup of defenseless immigrants in broad daylight, and the potential for any resistance is very low or non-existent. They only need to have a few such events involving a few hundred or few thousand immigrants to achieve, what I suspect is the desired result... satisfying the American public's lust for human suffering. Deporting millions of people isn't remotely necessary to accomplish that.
So much of what Trump has been, is a show, a scam, a farce, an illusion... I strongly suspect that his mass deportation promise will follow this trend. I'd actually be a little surprised if actual deportations under the new Trump administration deviate in any significant measure, from the levels in past years.
Rather than immigration/deportation, I actually think the most pernicious threat that Trump poses, is that he will refuse to leave office at the end of his term, and/or put some mechanism in place that allows him to claim some legal right to stay in office. If Judge Merchan sentences him, but defers the sentence until his Presidency ends... or defers sentencing entirely until his Presidency ends... it could be further motivation for Trump to try and stay in office at all costs.
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Estebonrober
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this kind of thing, when armed people show and start stealing your children, the potential for violence is very very real.
I think this specifically is less likely because of the optics. What Trump supporters want... and concurrently, what Trump opponents want... is to see adults, and in the latter case, particularly Trump supporters, getting rounded up at their places of employment and being hauled off for deportation.
For the conservative media, the holy grail is footage of a mass raid of a business where there are a bunch of illegal immigrants employed and seeing them all rounded up and cuffed and carted off to jail. For the liberal media, the holy grail is to get the interview of the Trump voter/supporter whose family member/friend/co-worker is being deported, crying that they regret voting for Trump and that they never thought it (deportation) would happen to someone they knew and/or cared about.
After 2 weeks, 96% of California's votes have been counted, so it is possible to do some comparisons with 2020 now.
In 2020, Joseph got 81.2 million votes and Donald got 74.2 million votes.
In 2024, Kamala got 74.2 million votes and Donald got 76.7 million votes.
These numbers will bump up a bit more, but not a lot.
Just a lower turnout year for some reason.
In 2020, Joseph got 81.2 million votes and Donald got 74.2 million votes.
In 2024, Kamala got 74.2 million votes and Donald got 76.7 million votes.
These numbers will bump up a bit more, but not a lot.
Just a lower turnout year for some reason.
He was the start of it in Congress with his 1994 win of House control and was fueled by Rush Limbaugh and the launch of Fox News (1996).
Estebonrober
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Ok, I mean I can't argue with your take here but suffice to say raiding workplaces is not going to be enough if they are actually going to follow through on this promise to the electorate.
If they avoid homes, then I'd think it much less likely to see violence.
Lexicus
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There are many questions about how this plays out. I certainly think Trump would be content with a more performative version of mass deportation, but there are certainly people around Trump whom I believe would want to pursue a 'real' mass deportation and how much free reign they're going to get is an open question. Trump isn't any younger or more vigorous than he was last time around, when he reportedly spent more time watching TV and playing golf than doing work.
As to Trump staying in office I think it's useless to speculate that far in the future. I am not sure the real threat is Trump staying in office past his appointed term so much as the GOP in general doing what they've been doing since like the 70s, exploiting the anti-majoritarian features of the Constitution to exert disproportionate power. But we'll have to see how things go. Imo it remains an open question whether Trump will live through this term.
In NM it will mean no more yard workers, cooks, dishwashers, construction labor, probably and end to home health care and maid services too. And all those office cleaning services. Ag workers too. No more chile pickers!
Lexicus
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I personally dislike the framing that sees immigrants as valuable primarily because they provide cheap labor, but it will indeed be interesting to see the effect of deporting cheap labor on prices. The next four years may be a useful test case to determine how much "economic pain" is constructed by right-wing propaganda - if inflation stays the same or gets worse but fades as an issue, then the problem is less the state of the economy and more how do we bring mass extinction to the right-wing media ecosystem.
I agree that the start of the current schism was the Clinton administration.
Newt Gingrich gets blamed for it commonly, but I have argued that there was an even earlier catalyst.
My take on it has been that what really caused the rift, was that after the Republicans winning near total EC victories in 1984 (Reagan) and 1988 (Papa Bush), the Republicans expected to do the same in 1992 but Ross Perot's unusually strong third party run was perceived to have spoiled it. That led to a bitterness among Republicans that Clinton was illegitimate, having won by a plurality, rather than majority, which was, in their view, made possible only by Perot's candidacy. This bitterness was expressed in the resounding wins of Republicans in 1994 and compounded by Clinton winning in 1996, again in the perception of Republicans because of Ross Perot running (after pledging not to).
That bitterness over the Clinton wins were what fueled/justified the scorched earth approach of Gingrich and the Monica Lewinsky scandal/impeachment, which in turn led to Gore (Donna Brazile)'s disastrous decision to distance Gore's campaign from Clinton, which in turn led to Gore's needlessly close loss to Baby Bush in 2000, which led to Democrats seeing Baby Bush as illegitimate... and so on... you know the rest...
But it all started with Clinton's plurality election upset in 1992.
The Feds should raid a Trump-branded hotel and round up all the illegals
So every country with limited visa entry is fascist.
My suspicion is that complaints about inflation and inflation as an issue will fade, regardless of the realities of actual inflation. With Trump in the White House, conservative media will no longer push inflation as an issue and so the electorate will no longer see it as an issue.
There is also the strong possibility/probability that, as is ironically, and repeatedly the case... the policies pursued by the Democratic administration, that got the country through the crisis caused by the prior Republican administration, have the long term effect of creating positive economic conditions, that the incoming Republican administration takes credit for, then promptly institutes policies that crash the economy, that Democrats are then called upon to fix... rinse, repeat...
Intentionally and obviously misreading people is probably a habit you should look to grow past.
Lexicus
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I think the roots of this go back further. The major catalyst for a lot of the subsequent political trends was the passage of the Voting Rights Act, which white Americans never forgave the Democrats for. The roots of the GOP's derangement I think go back to the downfall of Nixon - there was a resolution at that time not to allow the same thing to happen to another Republican President, which is what in turn led to the creation of a bunch of conservative groups like the Federalist Society (and later, right-wing media including Fox) to recapture the institutions that were seen to be hopelessly "liberal" as they had "betrayed" the President - or at least create parallel conservative versions of them. This was also the origin of the impulse to purge the GOP of RINOs which effectively meant any Republican elected official more committed to the Constitution than to the partisan goals of the party. The end result of that of course has been the complete failure of GOP officials to act the way they are supposed to act under the Constitition - the GOP Supreme Court and the GOP Congress do not check the criminal GOP President in any meaningful way.
I do think 1994 will be the year future historians will point to as a watershed for the end of the American republic - by analogy, Trump would be Caesar, the guy who most people think of as ending the Roman republic, but Newt Gingrich would be Sulla, the guy who actually ended it years before Caesar took over.
1994 was the year that a GOP majority openly hostile and contempuous of parliamentary democracy took over the parliament as it were. You can a draw a straight line from the strategy and tactics the GOP began using then to the present situation.
Yes, but the reality of a large round up is that those more menial jobs will lose their workers. In other parts of the country the losses will be different. NM has a large undocumented population that is mostly employed or self employed at the lower end of the wage scale.
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