Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[danjuno]

Lately we don't get snow till around MLK day in the DC area.

 

[innonimatu]

RFK Jr's speech was pretty darn good. I have problems with his take on Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine (and how he ignores that Putin never implemented a single article of either Minsk 1 or Minsk 2)

A lie doesn't become true because it is systematically repeated. Good for RFK Jr if he has the balls to refuse to parrot the lie. Especially him who knows how deadly imperial politics that can be in Washington DC. Or Dallas.
Many pollsters will seem embarassed in the coming election. But their job is to make sure the circus produces a maximum of income, so they must predict a "tight race". Otherwise the infotainment would lose audience.

 

[Birdjaguar]

A lie doesn't become true because it is systematically repeated. Good for RFK Jr if he has the balls to refuse to parrot the lie. Especially him who knows how deadly imperial politics that can be in Washington DC. Or Dallas.
Many pollsters will seem embarassed in the coming election. But their job is to make sure the circus produces a maximum of income, so they must predict a "tight race". Otherwise the infotainment would lose audience.

So who do you think will win?

 

[innonimatu]

So who do you think will win?

Aren't votes here public? Trump, obviously. I said so many months ago. Kamala not being Biden wears out pretty fast, if indeed there was any bump with likely voters at all.

The VP who supposedly handles the administration for the half-senile president (pushed out of the race for exactly rthat reason!) claiming she's going to do anything different from what she's doing now can't stick. The people dumb enough to overlook that lie were voting for her party no matter what already. The switch changed nothing.

Whomever is "left" in the US, not "liberal", has finally accepted that the Democrat's purpose is to neutralize good people. A different face for evil isn't going to make those people vote. Trump wins by default, like he won agaisnt Clinton. Harris taking one of her billionaire owners to such a well-covered convention just confirmed what her role is.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Thanks. Before Biden dropped out, I would have said it will close. With Harris in the race, at this point she is looking like a winner. I think for Trump to have a chance he will need to substantially up his game, but he seems reluctant to do so.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Donald Trump hosting Jan. 6 awards gala sparks fury: 'Absolutely horrid'

A gala to raise money for those arrested after the January 6 2021 Capitol Hill riot is being held at a Trump owned resort.

www.newsweek.com

A January 6 "awards gala" is due to be hosted at Donald Trump's New Jersey golf resort, and the former president is listed as an "invited guest speaker," along with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The event, in Bedminster, has sparked outrage on social media. One former Republican White House official branded it "absolutely horrid," accusing Trump of "glorifying violence."

On January 6, 2021, hundreds of Trump supporters stormed Congress in a bid to prevent Joe Biden's 2020 presidential election victory from being certified, following a rally addressed by the then president who made discredited claims of election fraud. In the ensuing violence one demonstrator, 36-year-old Ashli Babbitt, was shot dead by police, five other deaths were linked to the mayhem, and many police and demonstrators were injured.

The gala is being organized by Stand in the Gap, a group formed to support "January 6th defendants and their families during their time in incarceration," and is being held on Thursday September 5. More than 1,200 people were charged over their alleged involvement in the Capitol riot, and more than 460 were sentenced to prison.

According to Stand in the Gap the "unforgettable evening" is being held to "honor and celebrate the twenty defendants who contributed to the powerful Justice For All song," along with "all J6 defendants who have shown incredible courage and sacrifice."

Justice For All is a song released by the January 6 Choir, which features prisoners incarcerated over their role in the chaos singing the national anthem, interspaced with Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. The song briefly rose to Number 1 on the on the iTunes download chart and was played at Trump rallies across the U.S.

The gala will also function as a fundraiser, and the proceeds will provide "much needed assistance to the January 6 defendants," according to organizers.

To recap: Fallen soldiers and POWs, suckers and losers

J6 Criminals should be honored and celebrated for their incredible courage and sacrifice ....


USA! USA! USA!

 

[Moriarte]

I think for Trump to have a chance

With polls it's hard to tell what's really going on. Asking a hundred (a thousand?) people on the street or over the phone/internet doesn't really tell much about the mood. The low sample just doesn't provide the level of detail needed to know for sure. Even high samples, like this are flawed: (5 million people globally)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826015426658415033

Flawed due to geography, platform bias, etc.

Lower samples are just worthless in uncovering tectonic shifts within various demographics. Then there are high sample betting shop votes. Again, it's impossible to tell whether those are gamified for various purposes, such as profit or politics. These are global too, so, not really applicable to working America - the biggest demographic about to vote in November.

I's not over till it's over!

 

[Sommerswerd]

With polls it's hard to tell what's really going on. Asking a hundred (a thousand?) people on the street or over the phone/internet doesn't really tell much about the mood. The low sample just doesn't provide the level of detail needed to know for sure. Even high samples, like this are flawed: (5 million people globally)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826015426658415033

Flawed due to geography, platform bias, etc.

Lower samples are just worthless in uncovering tectonic shifts within various demographics. Then there are high sample betting shop votes. Again, it's impossible to tell whether those are gamified for various purposes, such as profit or politics. These are global too, so, not really applicable to working America - the biggest demographic about to vote in November.

View attachment 701004

I's not over till it's over!

Internet polls are not the same as polls conducted by professional polling firms. All polls certainly have flaws. Internet polls just have a lot more flaws.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Harris is pushing ABC for live mics and no muting whatsoever.

 

[JollyRoger]

According to Trump's crybabying on that lemonade stand of a social network.

 

[danjuno]

The VP who supposedly handles the administration for the half-senile president (pushed out of the race for exactly rthat reason!) claiming she's going to do anything different from what she's doing now can't stick. The people dumb enough to overlook that lie were voting for her party no matter what already. The switch changed nothing.

Pretty sure his handlers were his own people, not Harris'. Harris wasn't even in federal politics until the same time Biden was stepping down as VP. Most people view VPs as figure heads, the effect will be moderate.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Kamala not being Biden wears out pretty fast, if indeed there was any bump with likely voters at all.

I don't know about that inno... Biden sustained a successful 2020 campaign for 8 months based primarily on not being Trump. So I'm thinking Harris can sustain a campaign on not being Biden for 3 months.

The switch changed nothing.

Well... for the sake of argument, nothing... except the polls... changing what was a 3% lead for Trump over Biden into a 3% lead for Harris over Trump. You can argue that nothing has changed in terms of what policies Harris will have, but there's no reasonable argument that nothing changed about the polls.

 

[Oerdin]

Thanks. Before Biden dropped out, I would have said it will close. With Harris in the race, at this point she is looking like a winner. I think for Trump to have a chance he will need to substantially up his game, but he seems reluctant to do so.

Harris has never once been in a leading position on the electoral map. They all still show Trump winning and RFK seals it because most of his supporters in the swing states are switching to Trump.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Harris has never once been in a leading position on the electoral map. They all still show Trump winning

Well, 538 has Harris 1.5% ahead in Pennsylvania, 2.9% ahead in Michigan, and 3.6% ahead in Wisconsin. That would put her in a leading electoral position, especially since she also leads by 1.1% in Arizona, and narrowly by 0.4% in Nevada. Even in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump's once comfortable leads against Biden have gone down to 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. So in fact the 538 model electoral map has her currently leading Trump 251 to 219.

 

[Gori the Grey]

They all still show Trump winning and RFK seals it because most of his supporters in the swing states are switching to Trump.

Your source for this particular piece of information? Seems too early for any polling on the matter.

 

[Oerdin]

Well, 538 has Harris 1.5% ahead in Pennsylvania, 2.9% ahead in Michigan, and 3.6% ahead in Wisconsin. That would put her in a leading electoral position, especially since she also leads by 1.1% in Arizona, and narrowly by 0.4% in Nevada. Even in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump's once comfortable leads against Biden have gone down to 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. So in fact the 538 model electoral map has her currently leading Trump 251 to 219.

Did you see James Carville on Maher's show last week? He has been a big Democrat pollster for many campaigns and several Democratic presidential campaigns and even he admitted the polls are over sampling Democrats as many independent and Republicans just hang up on them. He literally said any polls not showing Kamala up by at least three points is her actually losing that state.

Do you believe him?

 

[Gori the Grey]

Carville has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Of late polls have oversampled Republicans, is the going wisdom.

 

[Oerdin]

Carville has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Of late polls have oversampled Republicans, is the going wisdom.

Why do you say that? He pointed out that polls were off by five points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. All under counts of Trump voters.

 

[Sommerswerd]

RFK seals it because most of his supporters in the swing states are switching to Trump.

When Biden dropped out, both Trump and RFKs polling started to go down simultaneous with the polling on Harris going up. That indicates to me that a significant portion of RFKs support was from people in the "Biden and/or Trump are too old" mindset. Those people aren't going to switch to Trump. If they don't like Harris, they will go with Stein, West, stay home or just write-in.

I also think that the voters who are willing to vote for Trump are already voting for Trump. A person who was voting for RFK, when Trump was already available, is very likely a voter who specifically didn't want to vote for Trump. RFK dropping out isn't necessarily suddenly going to make that voter want to vote for Trump.

 

[Lexicus]

Did you see James Carville on Maher's show last week? He has been a big Democrat pollster for many campaigns and several Democratic presidential campaigns and even he admitted the polls are over sampling Democrats as many independent and Republicans just hang up on them. He literally said any polls not showing Kamala up by at least three points is her actually losing that state.

Do you believe him?

Carville's statements also need to viewed through the lens of him being a Democrat, desperately wanting to win this election. That is, he's making an anti-complacency argument: please vote because we could still lose this thing even if Harris is up in the polls.