Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Zardnaar]

538 interesting but what was the best 3-5 polling companies from 2016/20?

 

[KMRblue1027]

He literally performed worse then any GOP candidate except those against Obama with Latino voters in both 2016 and 2020 which the latter has skewed exit polls due to the pandemic. No Republican has hit 35% since GW Bush in 2004. If anything the slight gains in 2020 which may or may not be real since exit polls leaned more in person which is GOP friendly is simple regression from the nadir of 2012.

Go look at cross-tabs for current polling and it doesn't make sense compared to actual election results Harris will often have like 60-40 black support in a poll, a only 20 point split hasn't happened in 80 years. It's why I'm fairly confident she'll outperform her polling average just the question is by how much and is it enough to win WI which gets her to 270.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Really good podcast.

‘They’ve given up on the idea that they can get women.’ How Trump is turning to the other gender gap for victory.​

A profound gender gap is shaping the 2024 election. And after listening to voters in hundreds of focus groups, Sarah Longwell thinks she knows why.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/11/how-trump-the-manosphere-and-abortion-are-driving-the-gender-gap-00183393

 

[Birdjaguar]

Donald Trump Makes The Pettiest Jealous Gripe About Barack Obama​

"There's a lot of unfairness in this world," the Republican nominee said of a matter regarding Obama.

Donald Trump Makes The Pettiest Jealous Gripe About Barack Obama

"There's a lot of unfairness in this world," the Republican nominee said of a matter regarding Obama.

www.huffpost.com

 

[Takhisis]

This is really just par for the course and not unusual at all. Detroit is a majority black city. He may need black voters but he really is not trying hard to get them. On the contrary he is courting white voters with dog whistle comments like these. His whole political pitch is white grievance politics and comments like these are quite popular among his base and others.
I suppose the election will answer one question, are there enough dissatisfied whites in America who are willing to put DJT back in office? TBD.

Well, he's going out of his way to attack black people by name, such as Whoopi Goldberg, so this does seem to be a strategy.

Everyone needs paper towels.

Are you sure? I'm pretty much sure that the towel referred to in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is a non-disposable towel, i.e. a cloth one.

 

[Strong Reaction]

The white savior complex is somewhat frayed by his picking up of gains in nonhwhite constituencies over time.

DJT's appeal more about lacking a.. certain class.

No, that is definitely his message, white grievance. To your point there is no shortage of minority apologists who assimilate to feel safer if they align themselves with the Trump movement. Its probably a bit more complex why Latino and blacks vote for him. My guess is its the stupidity of democrats at not recognizing that, at least in the Latino community they tend to embrace conservative values, anti abortion, traditional views about gender etc. and the (democrats) refusal to moderate those views. I still believe Trumpism is a cultural revitalization movement for whites. Lots of other factors play into it of course, but the base is lets change the society back to the "golden era" i.e. jim crow [ended in 1965], mass deportations [Operation Wetback 1954] yup thats a real thing, stratified class based on race etc.

revitalization movement definition | Open Education Sociology Dictionary

(noun) An organized attempt by a group to build a society or culture that is more attuned to their beliefs, values, or traditional way of life; typically in response to a rapid change in a society or culture.

sociologydictionary.org

 

[Takhisis]

At least among Latinos, (I get this from individual people who've moved to the US so I wonder how representative a sample it is) there is the dream of becoming a 'Murican and so they want to be upgraded to white. Or their children/grandchildren to be allowed to.

Also, the equivocal attitude towards our various self-style progressive dictatorships south of the Rio Grande by various First World political groupings who self-perceive as progressive makes anybody who even acknowledges the dictators being dictators gain a crapton of otherwise wholly undeserved sympathy points.

 

[innonimatu]

Trump is a populist. And the entire lower class has grievances, whatever their color. He will have their votes, those who bother to vote, because the opponent is a walking wardrobe of empty suits.

Someone managed to outdo Hillary, I had though that impossible. Even having read about the shallow carrer of this one.

Also, is the demented one still holding office out for vengeance or what?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Everyone needs paper towels.

As Taks says, no one needs paper towels. We haven't used any since 1990. You just go to the $1 store and buy two bundles of a dozen wash cloths. Put them in the kitchen cabinet and use as needed. Wash them weekly or whenever you do laundry.

 

[Farm Boy]

No, that is definitely his message, white grievance. To your point there is no shortage of minority apologists who assimilate to feel safer if they align themselves with the Trump movement. Its probably a bit more complex why Latino and blacks vote for him. My guess is its the stupidity of democrats at not recognizing that, at least in the Latino community they tend to embrace conservative values, anti abortion, traditional views about gender etc. and the (democrats) refusal to moderate those views. I still believe Trumpism is a cultural revitalization movement for whites. Lots of other factors play into it of course, but the base is lets change the society back to the "golden era" i.e. jim crow [ended in 1965], mass deportations [Operation Wetback 1954] yup thats a real thing, stratified class based on race etc.

revitalization movement definition | Open Education Sociology Dictionary

(noun) An organized attempt by a group to build a society or culture that is more attuned to their beliefs, values, or traditional way of life; typically in response to a rapid change in a society or culture.

sociologydictionary.org

If your policies are wrong for the people, the people need to change.

 

[Strong Reaction]

He's outperformed his party's historical take on those metrics already.

NPR couldn't stop wildering over the non hwhites not voting thier race last time the results came in.

I found this report:

2. Partisanship by race, ethnicity and education ​

2. Partisanship by race, ethnicity and education

The Republican Party now holds a 15-point advantage among White registered voters and a 6-point edge for voters without a college degree.

www.pewresearch.org

​

Majorities of Hispanic, Black and Asian voters continue to favor the Democratic Party, while White voters remain more aligned with GOP

www.pewresearch.org

From the link above from around 2004 -2023 it seems Republicans have made marginal gains with the Hispanic vote while Democrats have had marginal losses though they still have the overall majority. From 04 to 23 Dems have lost 4% and Rep have gained 3% essentially a 7% shift. The Asian vote seems to have dipped a bit for Republicans for the same time span. What that translates to as far as the election goes I have no idea.

 

[Farm Boy]

I guess i care less about the thread's limited purpose at that point.?

Either way, yes, acknowledging that Detroit has been served a **** sandwich seems to have been a meta republican win despite the pride loss that comes to the saviors when thier work isn't gushed over

Poor things. Wonder if they'll be alright?

 

[Voidwalkin]

He boosted a point in Michigan polls. It's kinda hard to argue that it hurt him on the whole.

It's an interesting thing. Two things are true at once. Trump's distaste of Detroit is surely partly racism, but Detroit has suffered, it isn't great. Even compared to other Midwest cities that struggled to transition from manufacturing Detroit is in worse shape. Maybe only Youngstown or Gary are comparable.

I expect most will focus on the racism of Trump but it is simultaneously true that I can't imagine a Dem speaking that plainly. Too many angles, words clearly measured for political effect with so many different sensitivities in constant balance. This is much less present in Trump world. I think it baffles people that Trump succeeds despite the lack of these calculations and observance of pieties, but this nonchalance is actually amongst the most influential reasons for his success - a general loss of faith in the political class seems pretty widespread.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Trump succeeds despite the lack of these calculations and observance of pieties

because of (as you go on to say):

but this nonchalance is actually amongst the most influential reasons for his success

(here, I'd change nonchalance to aggressive and deliberate defiance of)

and I owe @aelf a concession on a point from a month or so back:

Sarah Longwell thinks she knows why.

If one listens to the podcast that Bird links, she says that "anti-woke" is all over the "man-o-sphere" and it is that that accounts Trump's huge polling advantage with men. (Now, whether it's grounds for drawing yet more people to his side is still an open question).

 

[ConquestsMaster]

Trump is a populist. And the entire lower class has grievances, whatever their color. He will have their votes, those who bother to vote, because the opponent is a walking wardrobe of empty suits.

Someone managed to outdo Hillary, I had though that impossible. Even having read about the shallow carrer of this one.

Also, is the demented one still holding office out for vengeance or what?

The lower class voted against Trump the last 2 times he ran for office, including against Hillary.

 

[Voidwalkin]

(here, I'd change nonchalance to aggressive and deliberate defiance of)

I'm not entirely sure it's intentional, though. Or at least not intentional to a great extent. He may have a vague sense of how a thing'll play, but this is often wrong.

Given his career pre-politics, he's operating now much as he did before, afaict - headline good, get headline, dopamine loop. That that so happened to suit the time is more about the time than it is any conscious creation of his I think.

Somewhat in evidence of that is that he didn't seem to be able to sense how heavily abortion would hurt him here. I don't think he knew that some of his wilder remarks in the 1st repub primary, particularly about McCain, were going to play well. It just so happened that Republican orthodox political thought had evolved wildly differently than the general population and it was ready for a counter-elite. The current Dem evolution is similarly vulnerable, but much more resilient to capture by Trump specifically, because he is genuinely racist. That won't go unnoticed.

Like if it really were intentional, if he could have held back, avoid things like his Charlottesville commentary, he probably COULD have collapsed Dem political orthodoxy too. It's that weak, that even with his wild mistakes, the race is still competitive.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Well, he's going out of his way to attack black people by name, such as Whoopi Goldberg, so this does seem to be a strategy.

Are you sure? I'm pretty much sure that the towel referred to in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is a non-disposable towel, i.e. a cloth one.

Everyone needing paper towels is not mutually exclusive with everyone needing a cloth towel.

As Taks says, no one needs paper towels. We haven't used any since 1990. You just go to the $1 store and buy two bundles of a dozen wash cloths. Put them in the kitchen cabinet and use as needed. Wash them weekly or whenever you do laundry.

That wastes water. Paper towels waste less water in exchange for wasting more wood. Water is a more precious and less renewable resource than wood so its better to waste wood than wasting water. Wood literally grows on trees.

In other news... Harris' lead definitely seems to be trending downwards, both on 538 (2.5%) and RCP (1.8%), and Silver has her at 3%

 

[Gori the Grey]

Somewhat in evidence of that is that he didn't seem to be able to sense how heavily abortion would hurt him here. I don't think he knew that some of his wilder remarks in the 1st repub primary, particularly about McCain, were going to play well.

It's scattershot which ones actually hit, but he knows that as long as he says something that will offend, some number of them will resonate. He's constantly operating a focus group. He'll say something at a rally; if he gets a reaction, he'll keep saying it; if it doesn't he'll say something else. But each one is a deliberate attempt to "own the libs" by offending against contemporary pieties.

 

[Voidwalkin]

It's scattershot which ones actually hit, but he knows that as long as he says something that will offend, some number of them will resonate. He's constantly operating a focus group. He'll say something at a rally; if he gets a reaction, he'll keep saying it; if it doesn't he'll say something else. But each one is a deliberate attempt to "own the libs" by offending against contemporary pieties.

That's convincing.

I suppose his latest stumbles could be concluded to be in part due to the feedback loop of this process. His followers gain more appetite for trespasses as time goes on, which necessitates wilder ones, often distant from the real baseline of the public pulse.

 

[aelf]

If one listens to the podcast that Bird links, she says that "anti-woke" is all over the "man-o-sphere" and it is that that accounts Trump's huge polling advantage with men. (Now, whether it's grounds for drawing yet more people to his side is still an open question).

I feel the influence of the man-o-sphere is bleeding into mainstream, moderate spaces. So there's potentially a trickle of new support for Trump from there.