Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


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Well, at its price point it's totally acceptable for mixing. I'm only ever going to buy the fancy ass bourbon(nicest booze I've likely ever drunk(the wedding baijiu in Nanjing is going to run competition)) to drink on vacation straight and when shared with friends.

But it does mix nicely. Maybe better than higher quality boozes. Everything for its purpose. Everything for its season. Let it shine.

Straight is turrible.
 
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TL;DR - She explicitly told the crowd to accept the result of the election, she stated that she called Trump to congratulate him on his victory, she concedes the election and will assist in the transition and the peaceful transfer of power. She told the crowd that its going to be OK and they should keep working to make the world a better place.

Plenty of booze left, you're welcome to partake. They mercifully called the election so early compared to last cycle so I didn't have to drink all of it.:p

EDIT - Short and sweet. About 12 mins total and very positive overall.

Here it is.
Kamala Harris concession speech:

 
I know this is from 2 month ago, but it is still interesting to read.
The election autopsy will be interesting.

Did the pollsters mess up again?

I too predicted Harris would win privately.
I stumbled across Allan Lichtmans site a while back and thought he made a compelling argument and had a decent track record at predicting elections. I don't think his model fit in perfectly with the actual scenario, i.e. was the incumbent really running, shortened campaign runway, and just the unusual nature of Biden dropping out. Maybe I was being hopeful since Donald Trump is the representation of the worst impulses humans have, greed, selfishness, hatred for the proverbial other. However, a couple days ago I was on the website 270 to Win and playing with possible election scenarios for a Kamala win and frankly kept getting stuck on Penn. I just did not see her winning that state and therefore her chances of winning were less than poor. Turns out she did worse than not winning Penn. she did not win any of the swing states. I did not follow the polls, but from what I saw there were no egregious errors, everything was within the margin of error, I believe.


Early Results Suggest the Polls Were Notably Accurate​

Collectively they indicated that the presidential race would be close, and it appears they got it right without significantly underestimating Donald Trump’s support.
Mr. Trump was also on track to sweep all seven swing states, according to Times estimates, giving him a more comfortable victory in the Electoral College. But that is well within the range of outcomes the polls had suggested. His margins of victory in most of those swing states appeared to be relatively narrow, as the polls had suggested they might be.



My thoughts on the last two elections is this: win or lose the loser represents a sizeable portion of the population. You cant really ignore them. I mean you can but there are consequences.
 
Something tells me that the democratic party won't bother to (even now) switch to Bernie-type candidates.
I can see Bernie being eternal by now, so in theory an AOC-Bernie ticket (Bernie as VP) could be possible. But I don't trust the democratic party's leadership to not work against it.

My theory is the need a younger Bernie.

But illegal immigrants and Gazans don't vote.

Democrats pro immigration they're basically screwed.
 
I don't know. innonimatu was accusing me transitively of being a Trump supporter sometime last month, so when you finally learn to accept him as a Putin propagandist you'll be at peace with yourself, my young Padawan.
?I was making a joke about the one prophetic post by innonimatu, wasn't talking about him in general
 
I'm taking it most people here aren't familiar with the Apology Form meme

 
I was thinking the same thing :lol:

Actually, what I need a forward-looking thread for is rumination on how Trump might operate in office in this second term. That's what I've been mulling this morning.

At the center of my still-hazy thinking is wondering whether Trump will be motivated to do much of anything at all. First, he's already achieved the primary thing that motivated this run: Merchan now won't sentence him to prison time, and he can dismiss all the other cases. He's never been much motivated by the work of the job, except to create the impression that he's being successful. He won't be campaigning any more, and I think that might make a difference. He's very motivated by seeking people's approval, but the consequential form of approval is being elected and he can't shoot for that again. (There will maybe be some idle talk of repealing the 22nd amendment). He might invent some pretext for holding rallies, but it will probably feel a little flat because they'll be inconsequential. He'll mostly just want to golf and not be bothered, I would think.

I mean early on he'll end the war in Ukraine (by telling Zelensky we're not going to fund him any more, so seek the best deal he can with Russia). He'll bring peace to the middle east (since there has to be some point when Israel thinks it has achieved its military objectives, and that moment will fall during Trump's term; he'll be happy to package that as him ending the war that Biden couldn't). I think he'll have to make a show of deporting a bunch of people, but that may not prove as popular when people see it as it is when people think of it in the abstract, so if there's a PR downside, he'll just declare that issue solved and his followers will care as little as they care that the wall didn't get built.

He'll have no interest in grooming a successor or bolstering the R party. I'm not sure he thinks in terms of legacy, and to the extent that he does, he'll just tell himself that whatever happens during his term is the best in the history of the country, and maybe not actively go after very much.

I just think we might see a ton of golfing and not much attempt to get anything done. Now don't get me wrong, if I'm correct, a bunch of evil will get done by the people in whose hands he leaves the government.

But I just think he himself might default to his baseline laziness, again since just by winning he's achieved the primary objective he had for running in the first place.

Dunno.
Wishful thinking. Trump is not baseline lazy, he needs to be fed constantly (physically & emotionally), he's lazy when he can get away with it, trusting his ability to dodge questions that would've required homework.

My take on why he won is, he's malleable.

The president used to be seen as some larger than life avatar, unreachable & untouchable by the common person.

But Trump has be influenced by anyone who kisses his ass, Elon, Joe Rogan, Tulsi, RFK. He's like a twisted version of Jesus, you can be a sinner your whole life, calling him Hitler like JD Vance but if you bow down, apologize & accept him as your lord & savior you're instantly forgiven. People get the sense if they were in the room with him & suggested some off-the-wall idea he might actually take it seriously. And any idiot with clout or influence (which can be anyone in this Internet age) has a shot. Meanwhile Kamala going with 'safe' bets like Liz Cheney & Taylor Swift.

He's like the little kid in the limo pushing all the buttons, even though he's a narcissist he gives people a sense anything is possible.

Kamala is like "I'm gonna be Biden 2.0, now in off-white!". She's like the toy you didn't ask for for Christmas. Trump is like the scary movie everyone goes to see even tho it will give them nightmares.

Trump (like Obama) promises a revolution, it will be dystopian sure, but like jumping into a horrible relationship it promises something different from the current dreariness of modern life.
 
I think celebrity endorsements for either candidate had didly squat to do with who won.
 
My theory is the need a younger Bernie.
Meh, Bernie has no balls, he always got out of the way when he was told to. Being excited about him in 2016 was exusable, now he's just 🥱 , do we really need more impotent whinging (legit or not)?

That's the difference between him & Trump, America is the land of disobedience.

The left used to be that party (back in 60's/70's) now they're the 'let's be good now and don't cause a fuss, unless the fuss is on our list of officially sanctioned things to fuss about' party.
 
I think celebrity endorsements for either candidate had didly squat to do with who won.
Trump made the podcast tour while Harris was off campaigning with Liz Cheney. I don't think the 'endorsements' made much difference but shooting the ---- with 'everyman' types did.

That Rocky 3 montage comes to mind
 
Mitt Romney and John McCain as well as George w b people all are against trump. The establishment pre trump GOP was not great by any means but at least they were pro fascist and anti democracy
 
When he was alive he was against trump. Ditto for Colin Powell
 
He was alive last election and endorsed Biden. My point is mostly the same group of celebs endorsed trump vs the Biden or Harris in 2020 and 2024 so that is irrelevant as to why trump won this time.

edit: hispanic men in a landslide (as a demographic of people) voted for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024.
 
Trump made the podcast tour while Harris was off campaigning with Liz Cheney. I don't think the 'endorsements' made much difference but shooting the ---- with 'everyman' types did.

That Rocky 3 montage comes to mind
Chuckled at everyman, that's a stretch, quotes noted. Joe Rogan the 200 million dollar everyman, Theo von the 5 million dollar everyman, Tucker Carlson, Logan Paul, Dr. Phil all qualify as an everyman? Influencers yes, everyman no.
 
Slightly off topic but during Trumps victory speech I noticed a white NBA center standing next to Milania, who the hell is that?
 
Chuckled at everyman, that's a stretch, quotes noted. Joe Rogan the 200 million dollar everyman, Theo von the 5 million dollar everyman, Tucker Carlson, Logan Paul, Dr. Phil all qualify as an everyman? Influencers yes, everyman no.
That's how they try to come off. Impression more important than reality.
 
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