Future Update - Speculation Thread

[tedhebert]

They're adding images to the Steam store.

It looks like the headers now include a PC Gamer rating and quote

Wow ok...if that's the case, then they really are close to something !

 

[Jkchart]

It appears all Civ content is on sale again

 

[Eagle Pursuit]

Wow ok...if that's the case, then they really are close to something !

We've had bad luck trying to predict announcements with sales so far.

 

[Earl Grey - hot]

"Okay we've hit our quota for cheeky Steam depot names - we need a new way to let people know we have new content coming out shortly."

*raises hand* "How about a teaser from Marketing? Like we did with the natural disaster countdown clock?"

"No, no - far too expensive and obvious ..."

...

"You know what? Discount. Discount everything."

"But-"

"EVERYTHING"

 

[Kaan Boztepe]

Of course, Constantine is a good leader for Rome and of course you can throw them in together. I'd be okay with it by the way, if we then get some exciting new civ instead we've never had before .

Also: Scipio Africanus is the only right choice for an alternate Roman leader. We've never had Republican Rome after all. (And I know Scipio is a very ironic choice to represent the Republic, given his biography, but who else?).

We need some real news or else we will be chatting in hypothetics ad infinitum.

Cincinnatus? Fabian? Pompey? Marius? Sulla?

 

[RohirrimElf]

"Okay we've hit our quota for cheeky Steam depot names - we need a new way to let people know we have new content coming out shortly."

*raises hand* "How about a teaser from Marketing? Like we did with the natural disaster countdown clock?"

"No, no - far too expensive and obvious ..."

...

"You know what? Discount. Discount everything."

"But-"

"EVERYTHING"

It is still like 55 euros in total on steam. Life is so expensive. And when you buy it all. Another 25-40 euro season pass might hit you within 2 weeks. (Numbers season pass is just a guess)

 

[Jkchart]

interesting to note - I'm not sure how long it has been like this, but the DLC for Civ VI with the exception of the expansions aren't listed under the Steam "Content for This Game" page. You can still find/search for it though. and the DLC bundle is still advertised

 

[Pitohui]

10 achievements would be very little for 4 dlcs(even if they are mini dlcs),so I would guess the 10 achievements are first Depot only,which to me means we are getting a mini dlc first,then x(atm 2-3) another minis later,then(maybe,hopefully) a big one

 

[acluewithout]

We've had bad luck trying to predict announcements with sales so far.

Indeed. Terra Incognita sucks.

Sale runs until 20 April. I’m guessing no real news before then.

10 achievements would be very little for 4 dlcs(even if they are mini dlcs),so I would guess the 10 achievements are first Depot only,which to me means we are getting a mini dlc first,then x(atm 2-3) another minis later,then(maybe,hopefully) a big one

Yes? No? Maybe?

What you’re saying sounds right, but they could also just add more Achievements later before release.

What I know for certain is this: after all this waiting, if all we get is a relatively small DLC instead of a Long Speculated Third Expansion, it’ll be pretty disappointing.

But yeah. Sadly, the achievements and number of depots suggests relatively small DLCs. The best evidence for a Third Expansion are some comments by the Leaker (but they were made a long time ago, and they could have been wrong, could have been lying, or plans could have changed) and the rather obvious “gaps” in the game particularly as compared to Civ V BNW (but that is very speculative). So, certainly no guarantee of a Third Expansion. So it goes.

Like I said. Terra Incognita sucks.

 

[blackcatatonic]

Indeed. Terra Incognita sucks.

Sale runs until 20 April. I’m guessing no real news before then.

Hmm...

I seem to recall that 20 April was the original date of the Boston Marathon before it was called off. In the days where the only thing was 'Runner', and we had Ed's intriguingly-timed Boston Marathon tweet, a few people were speculating that 20 April might be announcement day or release day.

Probably nothing to it, but you never know

 

[Tsuchinoko]

Assuming we do get Ethiopia in this expansion (which honestly seems like a pretty safe bet) I'm predicting we'll see Dallol as a new natural wonder in their first look trailer.

 

[acluewithout]

snip

So, having thought about this just way, way, way too much, my thinking on all this basically boils down to this.

1. We’re probably getting a Third Expansion[0], and maybe getting additional DLC too[1].
   
2. An Expansion will likely have mechanics around Ideology and conflict, maybe something to do with Economics[2], and will certainly have Trebuchets (and other units)[3].
3. Whatever we’re getting, it’ll probably be really good[4].
4. FXS are clearly working on it now, but no idea when we’ll get something[5].
5. In the meantime, feel free to speculate, but there’s very little value doing so - FXS have already planned what they’ve planned to do, and they’re not going release any sooner whatever we say.

I’ve obviously struggled with Point 5. I blame being at home and sick of reading the same bleak news every day. Perhaps I’ll exercise some self-restraint and avoid Civ stuff until end of April.

[0] Evidence: mainly leaker comments, certain gaps in the game which are suggestive of a Third XP, and just generally how well GS sold. Key word here is “probably”. Definitely not certain, and there’s clearly an argument the 2019 Survey, 4 Depots and 10 Achievements suggest DLC only.

[1] I read the 2019 Survey as indicating what FXS planned to do after they release a Third and Final Expansion, but see note [0] above.

[2] Speculation, of course, but evidence re Ideologies is as follows: like, a million years ago, Ed said he wanted to do more with Ideology; Civ VI generally seems to recycle and rework previous mechanics, and BNW seems like a particularly good candidate for some recycling (especially given Ed worked on that); FXS already reworked Social Policies as Governors, so seems likely they’d try reworking Ideological Tenets as well (maybe as Mid or Late Game Governors); the game seems set up for Ideological Pressure, which was a well liked Mechanic in Civ V; Ideology would generally be a good theme for an Expansion that would let FXS work on other mechanics too like Diplomacy, World Congress, Economics / Trade / Corporations / Economic Victory, Spies, Future Units / Tech and just War in general.

[3] Come on sheeples, there was a Trebuchet in the RnF video! Trebuchet confirmed!! But more seriously, the game has obvious and problematic unit gaps, like Medieval Siege and Melee, Industrial Melee. More Future Tech stuff also seems likely given a whole extra Era was added in GA, and yet FXS didn’t do much with it.

[4] GS and the patch that came with it were awesome. Subsequent patches also awesome. I mean, past success cannot predict future performance and all that, but generally bodes well.

[5] Well, at least I have no clue. I thought we’d get news Oct 2019, then Jan or Feb 2020, then Mar 2020. Clearly I am both acluewithout and without a clue.

 

[Jkchart]

So, having thought about this just way, way, way too much, my thinking on all this basically boils down to this.

1. We’re probably getting a Third Expansion[0], and maybe getting additional DLC too[1].
   
2. An Expansion will likely have mechanics around Ideology and conflict, maybe something to do with Economics[2], and will certainly have Trebuchets (and other units)[3].
3. Whatever we’re getting, it’ll probably be really good[4].
4. FXS are clearly working on it now, but no idea when we’ll get something[5].
5. In the meantime, feel free to speculate, but there’s very little value doing so - FXS have already planned what they’ve planned to do, and they’re not going release any sooner whatever we say.

I’ve obviously struggled with Point 5. I blame being at home and sick of reading the same bleak news every day. Perhaps I’ll exercise some self-restraint and avoid Civ stuff until end of April.

[0] Evidence: mainly leaker comments, certain gaps in the game which are suggestive of a Third XP, and just generally how well GS sold. Key word here is “probably”. Definitely not certain, and there’s clearly an argument the 2019 Survey, 4 Depots and 10 Achievements suggest DLC only.

[1] I read the 2019 Survey as indicating what FXS planned to do after they release a Third and Final Expansion, but see note [0] above.

[2] Speculation, of course, but evidence re Ideologies is as follows: like, a million years ago, Ed said he wanted to do more with Ideology; Civ VI generally seems to recycle and rework previous mechanics, and BNW seems like a particularly good candidate for some recycling (especially given Ed worked on that); FXS already reworked Social Policies as Governors, so seems likely they’d try reworking Ideological Tenets as well (maybe as Mid or Late Game Governors); the game seems set up for Ideological Pressure, which was a well liked Mechanic in Civ V; Ideology would generally be a good theme for an Expansion that would let FXS work on other mechanics too like Diplomacy, World Congress, Economics / Trade / Corporations / Economic Victory, Spies, Future Units / Tech and just War in general.

[3] Come on sheeples, there was a Trebuchet in the RnF video! Trebuchet confirmed!! But more seriously, the game has obvious and problematic unit gaps, like Medieval Siege and Melee, Industrial Melee. More Future Tech stuff also seems likely given a whole extra Era was added in GA, and yet FXS didn’t do much with it.

[4] GS and the patch that came with it were awesome. Subsequent patches also awesome. I mean, past success cannot predict future performance and all that, but generally bodes well.

[5] Well, at least I have no clue. I thought we’d get news Oct 2019, then Jan or Feb 2020, then Mar 2020. Clearly I am both acluewithout and without a clue.

I really hope we get the Trebuchet. That's my biggest gripe about any of the unit gaps. Most of them I'm ok with (Rifleman would be nice though), but Trebuchet is almost a must.

 

[CPWimmer]

So, having thought about this just way, way, way too much, my thinking on all this basically boils down to this.

1. We’re probably getting a Third Expansion[0], and maybe getting additional DLC too[1].

...
[0] Evidence: mainly leaker comments, certain gaps in the game which are suggestive of a Third XP, and just generally how well GS sold. Key word here is “probably”. Definitely not certain, and there’s clearly an argument the 2019 Survey, 4 Depots and 10 Achievements suggest DLC only.
...

I hate to say it, but I think you are 100% incorrect on this. I think we are getting multiple smaller DLC's, most likely with a "Season Ticket" option to buy them up front in bulk at a discount,
Here are the reasons why:

1. There are currently 4 new DLC depots, meaning 4 separate pieces of software (at least) that are coming. I don't think Firaxis made those just to talk to us.
2. There are multiple Smoke branches, which is indicative of multiple pieces of software being developed in parallel
3. The (first) set of achievements that we saw had only 10 items, which is the number typical for a smaller DLC
4. The naming convention of these achievements (STK1_) hints that the internal name involves "STK" which could mean many things, including "Season Ticket" (see "RAF", "DLC" and "VSV" (Vesuvius was the Gathering Storm code name) used for previous achievement names)
5. The naming convention of these achievements (STK1_) hints at more than one set to be coming later, similar to the naming of achievements for for DLC 1-6 (see DLC1_, DCL2_ etc.)
6. The survey about DLC delivery preferences

In addition, here is why I think your two primary reasons FOR an XP3 aren't solid enough:

1. AssemblingTyphoon's information about XP3 was still somewhat tentative ("Assyria/Babylon, a Native American Civ"), and is now over 18 months old. A lot can and has changed in that amount of time.
2. All of the perceived gaps could just as easily be filled by DLC instead of one large XP

I DO believe that while GS was in development, the plan was for a 3rd Expansion Pack, but I believe that has now been broken up into multiple smaller DLC's to be coming "SoonTM".

 

[acluewithout]

snip

I’m sticking to my view, but I think all of your observations are certainly valid and agree I could well be wrong about a Third Expansion.

I don’t think too much can be read into the achievement names or having multiple depots. I agree four things are being worked on in parallel, but it could be one Expansion (or Mini Expansion) and three smaller related DLC, not necessarily four equally sized DLC. For example, maybe we’re getting an Ideology themed expansion and then three smaller dlc with ideological themed leaders and scenarios, all of which therefore reference “STK”.

Really, I think the biggest strike against an Expansion coming is not how the achievements are named, but the fact there are so far only 10.

Anyway. We’ll see what we get. Hopefully soon.

 

[Gyrofalcon]

I think we can get wiser if we look deeper into what depots get updated in the branches.
I notice that normally we see an update to main game, GS and RnF. Then I see that Viking and Nubia DLC's also gets changed from time to time, when the 3 major depots gets an update.

If we look at "2kqa_d" vs "usk_review": The 30th of March, 2kqa_d got an update on all depots (Main game, DLC x6, GS and RnF), the very next day an old branch was renamed to "usk_review", and got all depots updated. No flags there.
But later the same day, "usk_review" got an update to main game depots, and 1 hour after; "2kqa_d" got an update to the very same thing.
After this "usk_review" we see updates to "smokec" and "smoked", resulting in an update to "2kqa_d". The strange part here, is that normally we see an update to a depot in both encrypted_size_2 and corresponding encrypted_gid_2, but here we see that Nubia and Vikings gets changes in only encrypted_gid_2. Can someone enlighten me to what is the difference?

TL;dr; After the creation of 2kqa_d in early March, branches smokea - smokee, has all been active, pushing changes to 2kqa_d. Then a renamed branch usk_review emerged. And yesterday smoke classic was updated for the first time since the 19th of March...

And just a reminder: 2kqa_c was last active on the 10th of March, and the 12th they renamed and old depot to "2kqa_d". That is the only 2kqa branch that has been updated since then. So we have 2 dormant 2kqa-branches from 2019, and I guess only a and b has been tested by Aspyr. Will we see 2kqa_c also get shipped to Aspyr soon?

 

[blackcatatonic]

snip

I find this analysis very convincing. I am, nevertheless, hoping you're wrong

 

[Uberfrog]

I really hope we get the Trebuchet. That's my biggest gripe about any of the unit gaps. Most of them I'm ok with (Rifleman would be nice though), but Trebuchet is almost a must.

Trebuchet and a melee ship in the late Classical/early Medieval.

As it stands catapults and galleys can get torn to shreds long before their upgrades are available.

 

[AntSou]

Since the release of Gathering Storm that the jpg header read "New DLC out now".

They had to remove it because they are closing in on an announcement of new DLC, and the "DLC out now" would confuse buyers.

They'll probably go back to the "new dlc out now" logo once the new content comes out, hopefully in a few months.

Edit: and it might be relevant that the sale ends on the original date of the Boston Marathon.

 

[Haig]

I dont mind getting smaller dlc if it includes a couple of new features(ideology, random events etc) or redesigns of older ones.

I think it would be fun to wait for new content while occupying yourself with the latest one.

P.s. people want a medieval era melee unit. Where there actually regiments/footmen that were purely armed with shorter weapons that era?

I always had the feeling that infantry was pikes/halberds and short sword was a backup weapon or handy when threatening peasants to tell where they hid their valuables..