BrendanM
Prince
If Russia didn't invade other countries we wouldn't be in this problem...
see how cyclical this is?
Georgian-Russian War: the Western response
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If Russia didn't invade other countries we wouldn't be in this problem...
see how cyclical this is?
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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- Dec 4, 2006
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jessiecat
Divine Monarch
Your signature describes you as coming from the "American Empire",
which of course never invades other countries, does it?
I see how "cyclical" this is, and how cynical too.
BrendanM
Prince
Your signature describes you as coming from the "American Empire",
which of course never invades other countries, does it?
I see how "cyclical" this is, and how cynical too.
Double post. please delete
BrendanM
Prince
Your signature describes you as coming from the "American Empire",
which of course never invades other countries, does it?
I see how "cyclical" this is, and how cynical too.
America is an empire, empires invade other countries...
I guess you can see what Russia is really up to now!
scy12
Deity
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- Feb 17, 2007
- Messages
- 5,181
So ...... Why don't we look it from the pipeline's point of view instead of everyone else point of view for a difference. Maybe by doing so , we may see more clearly what is the interest of everyone else.
The pipeline
As you certainly notice the Pipeline does not pass , from Russian soil , but from Azerbaijan and the Georgian region.
it does not pass from either Armenia due to controversy by the Turks . It also does not pass by Iran but that makes not only political sense but also geographical. Certainly not Pro Russian Nations.
What other conflict is a danger to the pipeline other than the current war ?
Translated from Greek to English so spare me for any small mistakes :
Now .... Some other baground information about the pipeline so we can understand which interests are at stake here. Like for example who financed it.
At a length of 1,768km, the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline is one of the great engineering endeavours of the new millennium.
It runs 443km through Azerbaijan, 249km through Georgia and 1,076km through Turkey to the Ceyhan Marine Terminal.
The pipeline is buried along its entire length. At its highest point where it crosses the Caucasus Mountains the pipeline climbs to an altitude of 2,800m. It has a capacity to export one million barrels of oil a day, designed to meet the export requirements of the full field development of the ACG field.
The BTC Pipeline facilities include eight pump stations (two in Azerbaijan, two in Georgia, four in Turkey); the Ceyhan Marine Terminal located on the Turkish Mediterranean Coast; two intermediate pigging stations; one pressure reduction station, and 101 small block valves.
The construction of the pipeline has been carried out by an integrated project team that has also led construction of the parallel South Caucasus Pipeline. At peak during the construction phase of the projects some 22,000 people were employed. In Turkey, the BTC pipeline is being constructed by BOTAS on BTC Cos behalf under a lump sum turnkey agreement.
Approximately 70% of BTC costs are being funded in the form of financing by third parties. The group providing loans, export credits and risk insurance to BTC comprises the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank, export credit agencies of seven countries and a syndicate of 15 commercial banks. Finalization of the financing agreements came in February 2004 after more than two years of far-reaching monitoring and scrutiny of the projects environmental and social impact, as well as a thorough public consultation process. The participation of the lenders enhances transparency in the project, and gives lenders the opportunity to influence project implementation, and to help ensure the development potential from the projects is realized.
By creating the first direct pipeline link between the landlocked Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean, the BTC project will bring positive economic advantage to the region and avoid increasing oil traffic through the vulnerable Turkish Straits.
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?cat ... Id=7014358
The BP company stand from British petroleum with headquarters in London.
So that pipeline does not serve
What where the war effects ?
Azerbaijan stops oil exports via Georgian ports: report
By Polya Lesova
Last update: 8:53 a.m. EDT Aug. 11, 2008
Comments: 3
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Azerbaijan has stopped oil exports via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi because of the escalating military conflict between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, AFP reported over the weekend, citing the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR. "Since last night the import and export of oil through the Georgian ports of Kulevi and Batumi have been halted," said Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR, in televised comments on Saturday, according to AFP. Abdullayev said that SOCAR was "looking into the possibility of exporting oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, but the capacity of this pipeline is quite low," AFP reported. End of Story
More articles are coming.
Conclusions ? It seems unlikely that other powers encouraged the Georgians to attack as they would have much to lose.
Oil places a role with everything that happens. But yes it is more than just oil.
The pipeline
As you certainly notice the Pipeline does not pass , from Russian soil , but from Azerbaijan and the Georgian region.
it does not pass from either Armenia due to controversy by the Turks . It also does not pass by Iran but that makes not only political sense but also geographical. Certainly not Pro Russian Nations.
What other conflict is a danger to the pipeline other than the current war ?
Translated from Greek to English so spare me for any small mistakes :
Spoiler :
Now .... Some other baground information about the pipeline so we can understand which interests are at stake here. Like for example who financed it.
At a length of 1,768km, the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline is one of the great engineering endeavours of the new millennium.
It runs 443km through Azerbaijan, 249km through Georgia and 1,076km through Turkey to the Ceyhan Marine Terminal.
The pipeline is buried along its entire length. At its highest point where it crosses the Caucasus Mountains the pipeline climbs to an altitude of 2,800m. It has a capacity to export one million barrels of oil a day, designed to meet the export requirements of the full field development of the ACG field.
The BTC Pipeline facilities include eight pump stations (two in Azerbaijan, two in Georgia, four in Turkey); the Ceyhan Marine Terminal located on the Turkish Mediterranean Coast; two intermediate pigging stations; one pressure reduction station, and 101 small block valves.
The construction of the pipeline has been carried out by an integrated project team that has also led construction of the parallel South Caucasus Pipeline. At peak during the construction phase of the projects some 22,000 people were employed. In Turkey, the BTC pipeline is being constructed by BOTAS on BTC Cos behalf under a lump sum turnkey agreement.
Approximately 70% of BTC costs are being funded in the form of financing by third parties. The group providing loans, export credits and risk insurance to BTC comprises the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank, export credit agencies of seven countries and a syndicate of 15 commercial banks. Finalization of the financing agreements came in February 2004 after more than two years of far-reaching monitoring and scrutiny of the projects environmental and social impact, as well as a thorough public consultation process. The participation of the lenders enhances transparency in the project, and gives lenders the opportunity to influence project implementation, and to help ensure the development potential from the projects is realized.
By creating the first direct pipeline link between the landlocked Caspian Sea and the Mediterranean, the BTC project will bring positive economic advantage to the region and avoid increasing oil traffic through the vulnerable Turkish Straits.
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?cat ... Id=7014358
The BP company stand from British petroleum with headquarters in London.
So that pipeline does not serve
What where the war effects ?
Azerbaijan stops oil exports via Georgian ports: report
By Polya Lesova
Last update: 8:53 a.m. EDT Aug. 11, 2008
Comments: 3
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Azerbaijan has stopped oil exports via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi because of the escalating military conflict between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, AFP reported over the weekend, citing the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR. "Since last night the import and export of oil through the Georgian ports of Kulevi and Batumi have been halted," said Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of the Azeri state oil company SOCAR, in televised comments on Saturday, according to AFP. Abdullayev said that SOCAR was "looking into the possibility of exporting oil through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, but the capacity of this pipeline is quite low," AFP reported. End of Story
More articles are coming.
Conclusions ? It seems unlikely that other powers encouraged the Georgians to attack as they would have much to lose.
Oil places a role with everything that happens. But yes it is more than just oil.
scy12
Deity
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
- Messages
- 5,181
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2005/may/26/businessqandas.oilandpetrol
Q&A: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
The first stage of a contentious oil pipeline running from the Caspian sea through Georgia to the Mediterranean has been opened. Mark Tran explains
* Mark Tran
* guardian.co.uk,
* Thursday May 26 2005 16:38 BST
* Article history
Where is the pipeline?
Once completed, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline will run 1,100 miles, from the Sangachal terminal near Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, through Georgia and to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
How much oil will it carry?
The pipeline will carry 1m barrels a day from the Caspian sea, which contains the world's third-largest oil and gas reserves. A total of 10m barrels of crude oil is required to fill it. Estimates put reserves in the region at 33bn barrels, compared with around 715bn barrels in the Persian Gulf. Caspian production amounts to around 2m barrels a day - roughly the same as Iraq.
How much did it cost?
The $3.2bn (£1.74bn) pipeline, the largest private construction project in the world, is part of a $20bn series of energy developments to produce and transport oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian. The British oil giant BP is the leading company in the consortium, which also includes the US firms Unocal and ConocoPhillips.
Why is the pipeline significant?
The US favoured the pipeline on the grounds that it would lessen western dependence on Middle East oil and Russian pipelines, as well as well as avoiding Iran. While the pipeline crosses areas plagued by separatist conflicts, the countries involved hope it will bring economic benefits and enhance political stability.
How much Caspian Sea oil goes through Russia?
Most Caspian oil exports currently go through Russian pipelines to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, where the oil is loaded onto tankers that squeeze through the very busy Bosporus. Russian officials tried to persuade Azerbaijan not to sign on to the project.
What regional impact will the pipeline have?
Azerbaijan is banking on it to raise its profile in the world and to bolster international support for Baku in its dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which was taken over by ethnic Armenian separatists more than a decade ago. The conflict continues to simmer, undermining the region's security. Meanwhile, Georgia - which has troubled relations with Russia - sees the pipeline as a way of lessening its dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Who stands to benefit economically?
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey stand to earn substantial revenue through transit fees and royalties. BP says the major oil and gas fields and pipelines will provide revenues of more than $150bn to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey between 2005 and 2024. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has forecast that Azerbaijan's economy will grow by more than one fifth this year, while oil revenues will swell government coffers by $50bn. Turkey says the pipeline could be the "Silk Road of the 21st century", and BP describes the Caspian as one of its major new profit centres.
Is anyone opposed to the project?
Environmental and human rights groups have criticised the scheme. The Kurdish Human Rights Project and Friends of the Earth, amongst others, are particularly critical of Botas, the nationalised Turkish pipeline company, which is carrying out the construction work in Turkey.
Botas has been accused of offering far less compensation to landowners than promised, and NGOs say there have been cases of landowners being threatened for refusing to accept offers of compensation. They also allege that Ferhat Kaya, a human rights activist, was beaten up and tortured last year as a direct result of his work on cases of abuses related to land expropriation in Turkey.
Is there a terrorist threat?
Because of the separatist conflicts in the region, terrorism cannot be discounted, but the pipeline is specifically designed to thwart such attacks. It is completely buried along its path through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The pipeline passes within a few miles of Nagorno-Karabakh, and critics have suggested it could be vulnerable to terrorist attacks at various points. The James Bond film The World is Not Enough featured a terrorist threat against the pipeline.
What about environmental concerns?
Some engineers who worked on the project claim there were insufficient checks on the risk of the pipe buckling in earthquake zones. Another concern cited by the Baku Ceyhan Campaign, a group opposing the pipeline, is the effectiveness of the coating designed to protect the pipe from corrosion. Any leakage in Georgia could affect the mineral water aquifer at Borjorni national park. Borjorni water is a major Georgian export.
What does BP say?
BP says it has set out to "raise the bar" and establish a new international benchmark in human rights and environmental standards on the project. The new benchmark, it says, extends to such diverse areas as leak detection, land acquisition, biodiversity and community investment. The company also says the pipeline is to be buried for its entire route, meaning nobody would be permanently displaced from their home.
Q&A: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
The first stage of a contentious oil pipeline running from the Caspian sea through Georgia to the Mediterranean has been opened. Mark Tran explains
* Mark Tran
* guardian.co.uk,
* Thursday May 26 2005 16:38 BST
* Article history
Where is the pipeline?
Once completed, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline will run 1,100 miles, from the Sangachal terminal near Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, through Georgia and to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
How much oil will it carry?
The pipeline will carry 1m barrels a day from the Caspian sea, which contains the world's third-largest oil and gas reserves. A total of 10m barrels of crude oil is required to fill it. Estimates put reserves in the region at 33bn barrels, compared with around 715bn barrels in the Persian Gulf. Caspian production amounts to around 2m barrels a day - roughly the same as Iraq.
How much did it cost?
The $3.2bn (£1.74bn) pipeline, the largest private construction project in the world, is part of a $20bn series of energy developments to produce and transport oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian. The British oil giant BP is the leading company in the consortium, which also includes the US firms Unocal and ConocoPhillips.
Why is the pipeline significant?
The US favoured the pipeline on the grounds that it would lessen western dependence on Middle East oil and Russian pipelines, as well as well as avoiding Iran. While the pipeline crosses areas plagued by separatist conflicts, the countries involved hope it will bring economic benefits and enhance political stability.
How much Caspian Sea oil goes through Russia?
Most Caspian oil exports currently go through Russian pipelines to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, where the oil is loaded onto tankers that squeeze through the very busy Bosporus. Russian officials tried to persuade Azerbaijan not to sign on to the project.
What regional impact will the pipeline have?
Azerbaijan is banking on it to raise its profile in the world and to bolster international support for Baku in its dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which was taken over by ethnic Armenian separatists more than a decade ago. The conflict continues to simmer, undermining the region's security. Meanwhile, Georgia - which has troubled relations with Russia - sees the pipeline as a way of lessening its dependence on Russian energy supplies.
Who stands to benefit economically?
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey stand to earn substantial revenue through transit fees and royalties. BP says the major oil and gas fields and pipelines will provide revenues of more than $150bn to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey between 2005 and 2024. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has forecast that Azerbaijan's economy will grow by more than one fifth this year, while oil revenues will swell government coffers by $50bn. Turkey says the pipeline could be the "Silk Road of the 21st century", and BP describes the Caspian as one of its major new profit centres.
Is anyone opposed to the project?
Environmental and human rights groups have criticised the scheme. The Kurdish Human Rights Project and Friends of the Earth, amongst others, are particularly critical of Botas, the nationalised Turkish pipeline company, which is carrying out the construction work in Turkey.
Botas has been accused of offering far less compensation to landowners than promised, and NGOs say there have been cases of landowners being threatened for refusing to accept offers of compensation. They also allege that Ferhat Kaya, a human rights activist, was beaten up and tortured last year as a direct result of his work on cases of abuses related to land expropriation in Turkey.
Is there a terrorist threat?
Because of the separatist conflicts in the region, terrorism cannot be discounted, but the pipeline is specifically designed to thwart such attacks. It is completely buried along its path through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The pipeline passes within a few miles of Nagorno-Karabakh, and critics have suggested it could be vulnerable to terrorist attacks at various points. The James Bond film The World is Not Enough featured a terrorist threat against the pipeline.
What about environmental concerns?
Some engineers who worked on the project claim there were insufficient checks on the risk of the pipe buckling in earthquake zones. Another concern cited by the Baku Ceyhan Campaign, a group opposing the pipeline, is the effectiveness of the coating designed to protect the pipe from corrosion. Any leakage in Georgia could affect the mineral water aquifer at Borjorni national park. Borjorni water is a major Georgian export.
What does BP say?
BP says it has set out to "raise the bar" and establish a new international benchmark in human rights and environmental standards on the project. The new benchmark, it says, extends to such diverse areas as leak detection, land acquisition, biodiversity and community investment. The company also says the pipeline is to be buried for its entire route, meaning nobody would be permanently displaced from their home.
Snorrius
Librivorator
Had you ever hear about Napoleon's Empire and Third Reich? They had similar aspiration. Napoleon, as I remember, said that he wanted "to liberate" peasants and give them "freedom". It is ridiculously similar to US aspirations to install democracy everywhere. History is repeating itself again.
People seem to have forgotten that Russia is actually a regional titan, it was keeping people from Japan and the Ukraine very busy since long before Lenin or Stalin. People seem to have deluded themselves into thinking that the end of the USSR meant the end of that geopolitical equation.
It's still not smart to piss them off. The more I think about it, I rate this war about on par with Panama or Granada, especially since Georgia really were the ones who massively upset the status quo right in a giant's back yard.
Though, one has to wonder how it was that we, the collective West, let Georgia think it had carte blanche western backing in the first place, when plainly that wasn't an option. Not smart. The US and Europe can exert a great deal of influence during peacetime, but when push comes to shove that's still not going to count for much in hard geopolitical terms.
It's still not smart to piss them off. The more I think about it, I rate this war about on par with Panama or Granada, especially since Georgia really were the ones who massively upset the status quo right in a giant's back yard.
Though, one has to wonder how it was that we, the collective West, let Georgia think it had carte blanche western backing in the first place, when plainly that wasn't an option. Not smart. The US and Europe can exert a great deal of influence during peacetime, but when push comes to shove that's still not going to count for much in hard geopolitical terms.
GoodGame
Red, White, & Blue, baby!
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2004
- Messages
- 13,725
But realistically if Russia wasn't backed by nuclear firepower, with some oil pipelines at stake I think the US would have helped Georgia hold the line without actually invading. Bottom line is that backyard wars like this aren't worth WW3 even at the loss of some prestige.
I don't quite see how some mutual military aid with USA over the years equals telling Georgia to escalate their border squabbles.
I don't quite see how some mutual military aid with USA over the years equals telling Georgia to escalate their border squabbles.
sgrig
Comrade
Looks like this conflict wasn't such an easy ride for the Russian military as it was made out to be.
Here are blogs (in Russian) from Russian reporters who were in South Ossetia from 8-10 Aug:
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/12/society/366011/
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/11/society/365842/
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/11/society/365833/
For non-Russian speakers, some key points:
1) The initial Russian attack on Tskhinvali was badly organised, APC crews didn't even have full ammo
2) Practically a whole batallion of the 58th army was destroyed by Georgian forces - only 5 APCs survived out of 30
3) The battle in Tskhinvali was very bloody with lots of casualties on both sides
4) Russians didn't control Tskhinvali neither on the 8th nor on the 9th august, contrary to official reports. Only on 10th August the city was more or less under control
5) Most of Russian forces taking part in the operation were conscripts, despite Russian authorities claiming that only professional forces were taking part. Moreover, many of these conscripts still thought it's only an exercise when moving into S Ossetia.
The impression I got from reading these blogs is that Russian military hasn't really learnt anything from Chechen wars, and is in the same chaos and disarray.
Of course, the MK isn't the most reliable source, but some of what what their reporters have said is probably true. Moreover, it is definitely not state propaganda.
Here are blogs (in Russian) from Russian reporters who were in South Ossetia from 8-10 Aug:
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/12/society/366011/
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/11/society/365842/
http://www.mk.ru/blogs/MK/2008/08/11/society/365833/
For non-Russian speakers, some key points:
1) The initial Russian attack on Tskhinvali was badly organised, APC crews didn't even have full ammo
2) Practically a whole batallion of the 58th army was destroyed by Georgian forces - only 5 APCs survived out of 30
3) The battle in Tskhinvali was very bloody with lots of casualties on both sides
4) Russians didn't control Tskhinvali neither on the 8th nor on the 9th august, contrary to official reports. Only on 10th August the city was more or less under control
5) Most of Russian forces taking part in the operation were conscripts, despite Russian authorities claiming that only professional forces were taking part. Moreover, many of these conscripts still thought it's only an exercise when moving into S Ossetia.
The impression I got from reading these blogs is that Russian military hasn't really learnt anything from Chechen wars, and is in the same chaos and disarray.
Of course, the MK isn't the most reliable source, but some of what what their reporters have said is probably true. Moreover, it is definitely not state propaganda.
sgrig
Comrade
The "Moskovsky Komsomolets" newspaper is generally quite sensationalist, so no doubt they can over-dramatize the situation.
However, I also tend to believe them in these reports. I would've been more sceptical if the Russian Army was portrayed as being efficient and organised.
However, I also tend to believe them in these reports. I would've been more sceptical if the Russian Army was portrayed as being efficient and organised.
C~G
Untouchable
- Joined
- May 24, 2006
- Messages
- 4,146
I can imagine the epitaph for the presidency of George W. Bush, "he was there to stand strong when 9/11 happened, he started the war on Iraq, he build amazing budget deficit...and oh, yeah and he started WW3 because there was some trouble in small country in Caucasus which name resembles his own."GoodGame said:
Yeah, I can imagine how NATO attacking russians in Georgia is extremely plausible scenario...
Snorrius
Librivorator
Strange, I was under impression that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will secede from Georgia. At list, it was not ruled out, and both were unclear when asked.
joshhh
Warlord
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2008
- Messages
- 272
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080812/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia
Russia is continuing its incursion into Georgia despite Medvedev's announcement of a ceasefire.
Medvedev doesn't control anything in Russia.
Russia is continuing its incursion into Georgia despite Medvedev's announcement of a ceasefire.
Medvedev doesn't control anything in Russia.
scy12
Deity
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
- Messages
- 5,181
I am sorry but i think you must check your source , once again.
The article is about what "Georgia says" , and other allegations.
Mostly by Georgian president.
bigdog5994
Lady Day
Oh come its ok for Russia to invade Georgia but it was wrong for the US to invade Iraq??
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