Georgian-Russian War: the Western response

[Winner]

1) How should the West respond to the recent developments in Georgia, in your opinion?

2) What will be the real Western reaction, as far as you can guesstimate?

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Western = US, EU, NATO etc.
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1 - IMO the Western reaction should be resolute. If we let the Russians win in Georgia, crush its pro-Western government and turn it into a Russian client state, it will only strengthen their appetite. Next time, it could happen to other countries, the Russians have already warned Ukraine of supporting Georgia.

What we see here is a new proof that Russia still acts like an imperialist power bent on re-asserting its control over the former Soviet republics and the Eastern Bloc in general. The West led by the US must make it clear that this can't happen.

First non-diplomatic step should be, if the fighting continues, to supply Georgia with weapons, ammunition and other supplies.

2 - Nothing. Like in Munich 1938, Hungary 1956, Prague Spring 1968 etc., the West will just sit and watch how a small pro-Western country gets trashed by an aggression by a stronger power. US and the EU will issue some useless statements asking for suspension of hostilities, but they won't do anything to stop the Russians, as usual.

 

[Mr. Dictator]

i see no bias in this thread so far, keep up the integrity winner.

 

[Kozmos]

We should do nothing. 56,000 Ossetians to about 14,000 ethnic Georgians in the disputed area. At most we should negotiate a kind of a ceasefire and a breakoff of South Ossetia to Russia.

 

[Winner]

We should do nothing. 56,000 Ossetians to about 14,000 ethnic Georgians in the disputed area. At most we should negotiate a kind of a ceasefire and a breakoff of South Ossetia to Russia.

Not a good option. It would undermine and ultimately destroy the pro-Western regime in Georgia and it would be a victory of the Russian aggression, which would be de facto legalized.

 

[gegabitelord]

Not a good option. It would undermine and ultimately destroy the pro-Western regime in Georgia and it would be a victory of the Russian aggression, which would be de facto legalized.

You have a good point, but if there's no UN/NATO/US intervention, then we would have no choice, in other words, we ain't got no balls.

 

[salty mud]

Nothing should be done. If this escalates out of control, it would be a full scale war between the West and Russia and it's allies: World War.

 

[BEHIND_THE_MASK]

Not a good option. It would undermine and ultimately destroy the pro-Western regime in Georgia and it would be a victory of the Russian aggression, which would be de facto legalized.

Before I say anything... Can I just ask what makes 'Pro-Western' so good? Do these pro-western states always have the ideals of the West or are they just using their Pro-Western Attitude so that they themselves may get ahead and achieve their own imperialist goals... Not truly speaking of Georgia. But to back everything that is 'Pro-West' could very well be setting one up for their own demise or wounds.

Anyways... The goal should be not to destroy Georgia. If Russia's true claim is that it only wants to gaurantee the disputed areas independence then they should stop once that is guarenteed... If the Georgians however, continued attacking once said area is 'independant' then would they not be causing the shedding of their own blood.

This is of course if Russia's true goal is S. Ossetia's (spelling?) independence. For all we know there true aim may be to indeed be making Georgia a client state.

The sheer fact is we don't know...

 

[Arwon]

I think as long as there's a tacit understanding from everyone involved that South Ossetia is the field of battle here (as opposed to, say, the Russians bombing or marching into Tblisi) the West will tut tut and urge restraint and peace negotiations on both sides, probably continuing to arm/train the Georgians.

And I think we'll ignore hysterical comparisons to the Munich conference from paranoid Russia-hating Central Europeans.

 

[Julian Delphiki]

I have to take somewhat gray area here - Ossetia might very well deserve their independence and then again they just seem like pawns in chess game that Russia is playing trying to hold up their influence in the area.

I admit i'm biased and don't trust Russia - after all, our nation as whole does not have any reason for that.. (no.. i don't want Karelia back because it's ******* up and smells bad).

To continue the schizophrenia.. Chechnia? Russia did not want anyone to mention that, why is piece of Georgia breaking away so different?

Spoiler :

Realpolitik?

 

[A1CBOZ]

1) How should the West respond to the recent developments in Georgia, in your opinion?

2) What will be the real Western reaction, as far as you can guesstimate?

---------------------------
Western = US, EU, NATO etc.
---------------------------



-------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

1 - IMO the Western reaction should be resolute. If we let the Russians win in Georgia, crush its pro-Western government and turn it into a Russian client state, it will only strengthen their appetite. Next time, it could happen to other countries, the Russians have already warned Ukraine of supporting Georgia.

What we see here is a new proof that Russia still acts like an imperialist power bent on re-asserting its control over the former Soviet republics and the Eastern Bloc in general. The West led by the US must make it clear that this can't happen.

First non-diplomatic step should be, if the fighting continues, to supply Georgia with weapons, ammunition and other supplies.

2 - Nothing. Like in Munich 1938, Hungary 1956, Prague Spring 1968 etc., the West will just sit and watch how a small pro-Western country gets trashed by an aggression by a stronger power. US and the EU will issue some useless statements asking for suspension of hostilities, but they won't do anything to stop the Russians, as usual.

I agree on both counts. But I do think we should wait a day or so to make assumptions about supposed Russian imperialism.

 

[Mise]

2 - Nothing. Like in Munich 1938, Hungary 1956, Prague Spring 1968 etc., the West will just sit and watch how a small pro-Western country gets trashed by an aggression by a stronger power. US and the EU will issue some useless statements asking for suspension of hostilities, but they won't do anything to stop the Russians, as usual.

Funny. You claim to support "pro-Western" governments, but you yourself have views that completely oppose the views of the West. You don't like Western diplomacy? You don't like Western adherence to international law? You don't like Western peacekeeping? Yet you claim to be "pro-Western"?

Anyway, I think the response should exactly be diplomatic. Russia will probably ignore it at first, and then back down. Russia is sabre-rattling, just as it did with the Mugabe sanctions. They won't stay in Georgia; and if they do, they will have hell to pay internationally. This is a political stunt, to show Russian people that it has teeth, and to galvanise ordinary Russians behind the government.

 

[Julian Delphiki]

One thing to note about this crisis and internal politics of Russia.

It was Putin whose statement was noted and spread around first (hey, the duud is just meaningless PM) - not the fricking President of Russia who might have had his saying as well..!

At least, that is what me as biased Finn saw.

 

[A1CBOZ]

I think as long as there's a tacit understanding from everyone involved that South Ossetia is the field of battle here (as opposed to, say, the Russians bombing or marching into Tblisi) the West will tut tut and urge restraint and peace negotiations on both sides, probably continuing to arm/train the Georgians.

The Russians have bombed Tblisi. Government buildings have been evacuated.

 

[scy12]

A Diplomatic solution that gives autonomy to south Osetia.

 

[A1CBOZ]

One thing to note about this crisis and internal politics of Russia.

It was Putin whose statement was noted and spread around first (hey, the duud is just meaningless PM) - not the fricking President of Russia who might have had his saying as well..!

PLEASE! Putin is not PM of Russia... he is the CZAR!

 

[gegabitelord]

The Russians have bombed Tblisi. Government buildings have been evacuated.

Spoiler :

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Bombs rocked Tbilisi early Saturday morning as the fight between Georgia and Russia over a breakaway region intensified and moved into the Georgian capital.

A warplane drops bombs near the Georgian city of Gori on Friday as Russian and Georgian forces battle.

Government buildings, including the Parliament, were evacuated when the bombs fell.

Heavy casualties have reported on both sides since Russian forces moved Friday into South Ossetia, a pro-Russian autonomous region of Georgia.
Russian bombers were targeting Georgia's economic infrastructure, National Security Council secretary Alexander Lomaia said, including the country's largest Black Sea port, Poti, and the main road connecting the southern part of Georgia with the east and the airport.
Georgian television reported that the port had been destroyed.

Georgia, a former Soviet state, sent troops into South Ossetia on Thursday, aiming to crack down on the separatists, who want independence or unification with North Ossetia, which is in Russia. Russia responded Friday, sending troops into the Georgian province where it had peacekeepers stationed.
"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars," Lyudmila Ostayeva, a resident of the South Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, told The Associated Press on Friday.

"It's impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged," she said after fleeing to a village near the Russian border, AP reported.
"They are killing civilians, women and children, with heavy artillery and rockets," Sarmat Laliyev, 28, told AP.
One U.S. State Department official called the conflict a "very dangerous situation" and said diplomatic moves are afoot around the globe to stop it.
Georgia -- on the Black Sea coast between Russia and Turkey -- appealed for diplomatic intervention.

Georgia asked the United States for planes to bring back its 2,000 troops serving as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, a U.S. official said.
"All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting [the] civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among [the] civilian population all around the country," Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, said Friday. "This is the worst nightmare one can encounter."

Russia's ambassador to United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, put the blame on the Tblisi government.
"What is going on is a massive bombardment of residential quarters in Tshkinvali and other towns, too," Churkin said.
Eduard Kokoity, head of the rebel government in South Ossetia, said that 1,400 people were killed in the province, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html

 

[A1CBOZ]

Spoiler :

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Bombs rocked Tbilisi early Saturday morning as the fight between Georgia and Russia over a breakaway region intensified and moved into the Georgian capital.

A warplane drops bombs near the Georgian city of Gori on Friday as Russian and Georgian forces battle.



Government buildings, including the Parliament, were evacuated when the bombs fell.



Heavy casualties have reported on both sides since Russian forces moved Friday into South Ossetia, a pro-Russian autonomous region of Georgia.
Russian bombers were targeting Georgia's economic infrastructure, National Security Council secretary Alexander Lomaia said, including the country's largest Black Sea port, Poti, and the main road connecting the southern part of Georgia with the east and the airport.
Georgian television reported that the port had been destroyed.
Georgia, a former Soviet state, sent troops into South Ossetia on Thursday, aiming to crack down on the separatists, who want independence or unification with North Ossetia, which is in Russia. Russia responded Friday, sending troops into the Georgian province where it had peacekeepers stationed.
"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars," Lyudmila Ostayeva, a resident of the South Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, told The Associated Press on Friday.
"It's impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged," she said after fleeing to a village near the Russian border, AP reported.
"They are killing civilians, women and children, with heavy artillery and rockets," Sarmat Laliyev, 28, told AP.
One U.S. State Department official called the conflict a "very dangerous situation" and said diplomatic moves are afoot around the globe to stop it.
Georgia -- on the Black Sea coast between Russia and Turkey -- appealed for diplomatic intervention.
Georgia asked the United States for planes to bring back its 2,000 troops serving as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, a U.S. official said.
"All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting [the] civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among [the] civilian population all around the country," Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili, said Friday. "This is the worst nightmare one can encounter."
Russia's ambassador to United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, put the blame on the Tblisi government.
"What is going on is a massive bombardment of residential quarters in Tshkinvali and other towns, too," Churkin said.
Eduard Kokoity, head of the rebel government in South Ossetia, said that 1,400 people were killed in the province, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html

Thank you... I was looking for that report to post, but couldn't find it

 

[Julian Delphiki]

PLEASE! Putin is not PM of Russia... he is the CZAR!

Umh, sarcasm is pretty hard on theh internets but i was certain that it would be clear from my post.

 

[A1CBOZ]

Umh, sarcasm is pretty hard on theh internets but i was certain that it would be clear from my post.

Yeah, now that I re-read your post I see that it was obviously sarcastic. I apologize.Forgive me.... I've been up for about 20 hours... I'm tired....

 

[Princeps]

IMO the Western reaction should be resolute. If we let the Russians win in Georgia, crush its pro-Western government and turn it into a Russian client state, it will only strengthen their appetite. Next time, it could happen to other countries, the Russians have already warned Ukraine of supporting Georgia.

I can smell two fallacies here. Arguement from prejudice and slippery-slope. You need to provide a sound argument as to why "Russian appetite" would grow from this conflict?

Also, isn't it a little too early to assume that this is Russian attempt to just annex or destroy Georgia entirely?