Halo Mafia [Game Thread]

[Buddhafish]

On that note, my Internet connection is down, so no update tonight. Votes are still accepted until I call the day to an end. I'll update as soon as possible.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Visorslash

I believe in the magic of voting for someone who already has votes on them, and doing it randomly.

Clap, clap if you believe.

 

[Takhisis]

 

[NinjaCow64]

Haelluhia!

 

[spaceman98]

 

[Mat93]

vote: Verarde

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

What I was going to do was edit my post and have it read: clap if you have ever had romantic feelings for barnyard animals, but it's like shooting fish in a barrel at this point.

And we all know how animal-lovers feel about such things.

 

[SamSniped]

I don't think this was clear in the rules, so I'll say it now:

Do not quote any PMs from one person on another in thread. True or faked, no quoting PMs.

SamSniped, please edit your post. I understand that people have already seen it, but I see now that that was unclear in the rules.

Sorry, fixed it. Although the Private Communication section said nothing about that, just "No quoting role PM," in essence. In any case, the point still stands that I am suspicious of Verarde, and so was Earthling.

 

[Zack]

and so was Earthling

So what?

 

[Buddhafish]

Yes, that was my bad. I forgot to write that in there.

Votes Locked; Update Pending

Sorry abou the delays, but my Internet has just returned.

 

[Buddhafish]

Day 5​

“Loyal, Betrayer, Leader, Traitor, Good, Evil.” The Shipmaster said aloud as he paced around the Bridge on this day. “Why can I not find answers?” he wondered. “These things, they all describe me, but how do I know what is what? Who am I? What is the Truth?”

And there it was again, Truth. He didn’t know what it was, let alone how it applied to him. He heard someone behind him. He turned to see who it was. It was Master Chief.

“There is none.” Master Chief told him. “Truth is what you want to see. What you believe. What you believe in. It’s not a concrete thing. Truth and the way things are are two separate things. You want truth? You can have it. But to have truth, you give yourself to ideology. You give away free will to have Truth. It’s not the way things are, but if you fully believe it, it becomes Truth. It’s what you know. To see things objectively, you will never have Truth. It’s not there because you don’t believe that any one thing is concrete. It’s just a point of view.

“Truth. It’s overrated,” the Master Chief finished. The Shipmaster just stared as he walked away, thinking about this new insight.

“Damn shame,” Johnson said, still smoking a cigar, as he walked over to the Shipmaster. “Man’s one of the brightest people out here, he just don’t open his mouth up long enough to share it. Consider yourself lucky, Shipmaster. He don’t make speeches like that to just anyone.”

The Shipmaster thought about this. Then his thought switched to his duty. Truth or not, there were Covenant aboard his ship. And he wanted them dead.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was a close vote between Verarde and Visorslash that day.

When it came down to it, however, it was determined that Visorslash was meant to die. Everyone took aim, and fired upon him. Upon inspection of his body, it was determined that he was in fact not part of the Covenant Loyalists.

“Well, let’s all get some sleep,” Johnson said. “Tomorrow’s another day.”

The soldiers grunted and went to their quarters, all wondering if this was the last time they would see the bridge.

Spoiler :

Visorslash was a Covenant Separatist.

Spoiler :

He was an Elite.

Spoiler Tally :

10 Visorslash (azzaman333, classical_hero, Double A, Kennigit, NinjaCow64, Optical, Verarde, Zack, Takhisis, askthepizzaguy)

9 Verarde (Autolycus, Capt Blackadder, Gone 3 the Celt, Mat93, mayor, Mergle, SamSniped, The Black Knigh, Visorslash)

NOT VOTING: Dumanios (2), robbiecon (2), topsecret (1)

Night 5 has started.
It will last for 25 hours. Get your night orders in!
[TIMER="11/012/2012 3:00 PM EST; Phase Over"][/TIMER]

Posting at Night is allowed.​

 

[Dreadnought]

I am quite certain that the truth does exist.

 

[Takhisis]

Sorry, fixed it. Although the Private Communication section said nothing about that, just "No quoting role PM," in essence. In any case, the point still stands that I am suspicious of Verarde, and so was Earthling.

Earthling'd be suspicious of himself if he hadn't established a special 'trust yourself' clause.

I am quite certain that the truth does exist.

You can't handle the truth!

 

[Visorslash]

When it came down to it, however, it was determined that Visorslash was meant to die. Everyone took aim, and fired upon him. Upon inspection of his body, it was determined that he was in fact not part of the Covenant Loyalists.

Would ya look at that.

 

[Takhisis]

So? You're a scummah. Die, scummah.

 

[Earthling]

Well, not suprising when it looks like nobody at all went back and looked at any previous votes.

The good news is there's so much the town is close to figuring out already that's worth discussing.

Visorslash, you could do the town a tremendous favor if you have time to do something. If you can, go back and look at the D2 votes up until the Dreadnought vote and comment on anything you found significant. (After the Dreadnought vote if you really must or think it means something)

Visorslash - skip the below for now if you're going to do that independently. I'm of course not recommending others read/comment except for townies who are actually concerned.

Spoiler :

So it's rather obvious Zack should be lynched as a member of the mafia team, get him tomorrow as today was a failure, but that's already been advocated. The rest of the conclusions will follow at the end, let's read through the votes because I think some good hypotheses explain an awful lot.

The questions to consider going along: Why was spaceman killed (by the likely cult/serial killer/whatever third party) and of course, who are his allies?

Opening sequence of public events. Night 1, Takhisis claimed vanilla townie. Some players announce they don't believe him - Dreadnought conspicuously, then NinjaCow responds to the reveal positively, and to start day 2 Visorslash and spaceman vote for NinjaCow because they also didn't accept a vanilla townie reveal and thought it was a joke.

Was BSmith1068 targeted by two peoples?


Vote: Spaceman98 for wagoning

PIS, the same thing on noticing the nightkill spread happened more recently, and suspicious vote for spaceman

vote: spaceman98, his comment reeks of scumminess.

Keep this in mind when we look at votes later, a vote with no real reason by a possible scum with PIS

Autolycus, Mergle, Jarrema join onboard. Autolycus could be a lazy townie bandwagoning. Possible third party PIS. The latter two give actual reasoning that seems townie.

The initial response to Visorslash saying he could die instead does not seem too significant. One-line votes could be townie, the chance of a scum ally wanting to save spaceman is individually low.

Unvote, Vote: Warman

This is a hasty attempt at a real counterbandwagon.

Vote: Warman

Ninja, Zack and Tak? how could I not jump on the wagon?

There are the couple other votes, but the significance here is johnhughthom is not on the spaceman wagon, which could be due to third party insider info. Johnhughthom's role, replaced by BSmith, we all remember was neutral.

In that case,

Unvote, Vote: JoanK

Immediate attempt at another bandwagon.

In my opinion, either he's a cult member, or acting strangely scummy from this behavior.

vote: Visorslash

If you consider the Visorslash vote to be the mafia attempt to save spaceman, keep this in mind, but I don't think that's right.

Haven't had much time to be on today, but I am going to vote: SamSniped.

ENORMOUSLY townie vote. At this point, at least two non-town factions are probably trying to win the vote. A townie would of course be oblivious to this and vote randomly, not a scum failing to work with his partners.

Then, discussion over PIS and a cult. What's significant:

Fair enough then, let's lynch G3C, blatant PIS.

Okay then, I guess a Tak and Visor wagon is worth joining. Unvote; Vote: G3C

johnhughthom is third party. He is the one with PIS, so his accusations are of course, scummy in retrospect. Good indication of who is not allied/not third party. johnhughthom did give up on this later, so it also seems he didn't want to kill townies unnecessarily, and he doesn't seem associated with the other third party suspects. So either his faction (Forerunners) is not anti-town (jht could be alone) or remarkably good distancing by him overall.

Zack supports the existence of a cult - a narrative we'll see the mafia want to push - and tries to talk down the Visorslash and spaceman votes together, which would in effect save spaceman.

I don't think the Gone bandwagon is justified. vote: Visor

Keeping in mind the question of what bandwagon the mafia really wanted. I don't think it's this one, but having the vote listed for completeness.

Thus, G3C being a cultist is plausible. Since it is better than any of the other cases, Unvote:Vote:G3C

And... Gone 3 the Celt is not mafia, so he's pretty much clear. The mafia want any distractions they can get on third parties. Spaceman backs off on this vote later when the alibi against PIS is too strong - probably knows that publicly just voting against a townie for sure will lose him the lynch.

Visorslash sticks out to me as being a bit odd at the moment.

Because of Visorslash kinda asking for the votes, I think it's a mostly townie wagon. Optical's full post seems like townie reasoning, but on the record.

Vote:Spaceman
Visorslash seems very normal right now. He's acting like himself.

Ridiculously scummy PIS. Could easily be the point when the mafia decided they had to bus their teammate or distance or split their votse.

I will join the spaceman bandwagon with the hope that there is actually something behind-the-scenes for it.

Also huge PIS. Already knew spaceman was guilty much? No townies claimed such evidence against spaceman.

So now here's the guess you might have thought developing:

A third party team (cult/serial killerish) discovered something about spaceman. This explains the quick development of reasonless votes and the ongoing capability to rally votes.

It also explains why spaceman was nightkilled, when that looked like a bad choice at the time - half the town was suspicious of the day's events, spaceman flipped as vanilla temporarily - it didn't make sense. A serial killer could have just killed townies like publicly claimed vanilla Takhisis. Well, the cult/serial killer already knew spaceman was bad, so to them it was an easy choice. They failed to lynch him during the day and possibly lost one of their own, so had to strike back.

Unvote, and vote: Spaceman. Blind Bandwagoning, yes, but I've got nothing else.

Last bit of possible bussing, and:

Unvote, Vote: Dumanios

boooo

Another counterbandwagon/distancing. We don't know if this could have taken off and got townies onboard to counter the spaceman lynch, as Dreadnought soon gets decisively lynched.

Now there's one last thing to discuss - what is the pattern to the scum flipping townie.

For one, people are allowed to contribute after death. BSmith/johnhughthom's role, which might have been a lone neutral, tried to figure out his killer but seemed to be wrong about JoanK. I'm of course providing analysis for the town as I can.

Dead scum spaceman went very silent compared to how he was before death. Makes sense now. However, we have these jewels:

I think he was a Vidgelante whoes goal was to outlive the cult, but hard to say...

Promoting possibly wrong information about third parties, to the benefit of the mafia.

Wait, could Xeno be a jester?

Maybe trying to save Xenoneb from the lynch, but at the very least trying to confuse the town.

Spaceman might or might not have expected to ever be revealed as non-town, in any case he probably thought his partners would flip townie too and it looks like more scum did and will. If the reveal would come eventually, it's a temporary distraction for the scum team as they get more desperate (having lost 2, and soonish 3 members) It also seems possible spaceman/Dreadnought other scum could communicate with their team after death. With Xenoneb being over the top I'm gonna flip town and being a valid town lynch he's a good one to look out for.

As for third party, Dreadnought never posted again after his death until just after Visorslash was lynched; why would a townie not contribute? At any rate, we saw his many posts along the lines of when I temporarily flip town, kill town power roles asap. The other dead townie flips (nightkills especially) could just be townies who gave up as it was still early, and no one else went mysteriously absent anyway.

So from Day 2, we have the guess that a third party team wanted spaceman dead. They contributed to the spaceman bandwagon at some point, and then they had to kill spaceman at night because he wasn't lynched. Dreadnought is still probable scum who hasn't flipped and Xenoneb lynched yesterday could still be mafia.

Zack seemed desperate to save spaceman, on top of other indications of his scumminess later, (indicating he's not a Covenant townie and no role claim, plus his continued bad votes and cases) so lynch him tomorrow.

Conclusions:

Spoiler :

Zack is mafia, as spaceman's ally, there's a good chance Xenoneb was with them. Lynch Zack tomorrow

Cult/Serial Killer suspects include The Black Knigh, for PIS both on Day 2 and more recently, and Kennigit for PIS and bussing. The third party team wanted spaceman dead and were probably behind part of his lynch, and then they nightkilled him Night 2. Those two are really some of the best suspects if the third party team is in fact a team of multiple players from the start. If it is just a serial killer the town analysis can develop for a couple days and we'll see who is nightkilled.

It's ultimately not sure whether spaceman knew his identity would be revealed, and if other third party scum have the same deal. If a townie's ability or role is causing true reveals -- don't think that's the case -- hit Xenoneb next and Dreadnought is of course worth a check if you never did.

Also, all townies who die should here on out should make a little effort to contribute after death - if a vanilla is nightkilled, no reason you can't speak up. As the scum might be working with their teams after death the living players should consider that.

Lastly, seems pretty clear that any allies of johnhughthom should reveal to the town, because it'd be fully the best move for the town to let you be and only eliminate the other scum and third parties for hopefully a joint victory. You could do this to trusted townies in private of course, but if it doesn't happen, the town should assume jht's role was effectively solo and all other third parties are hostile.

 

[Buddhafish]

Orders Locked; Update Pending

 

[Zack]

<snip>

So, no reasoning besides "Zack is obviously mafia"? That's all you've got?

 

[Dreadnought]

Earthling, while I think your accusation against me is cute, I haven't been posting because, quite frankly, I don't want to break any rules about dead people's posts. I usually don't ever post in a game after I die for that reason.

 

[NinjaCow64]

I think Earthling's case against Zack is scummy and BS. Why isn't he dead yet?