Has the Republican party imploded, and can it stop a demographical meltdown?

So winning elections boils down to playing the race card well. Got it.

Anyone else detect a racist undertone in the OP?

That's a big part of their problem going into the future. They alienate minorities with race-baiting, and they turn off whites with their positions on abortion, same-sex unions, etc. (Whites as a percentage are the least socially conservative).

They need to either de-emphasize the social issues or repair the damage to their image among minorities if they're going to survive in the long term.

In the short term they just need to wait for the Democrats to screw up.
 
That's a big part of their problem going into the future. They alienate minorities with race-baiting, and they turn off whites with their positions on abortion, same-sex unions, etc. (Whites as a percentage are the least socially conservative).

They need to either de-emphasize the social issues or repair the damage to their image among minorities if they're going to survive in the long term.

In the short term they just need to wait for the Democrats to screw up.

But the implication in the OP is that they need to play the race card well, not stop playing the race card.

Changing racial demographics is described as the death knell for the Republicans because they are the party of the diminishing white people, whom we all know are a subject of the minorities' hatred.

Any decent person can see that there's something wrong with the premise.
 
Percent of popular vote:
1988 Bush, George H.W. 53.4%
1992 Clinton, Bill 43.0%
1996 Clinton, Bill 49.2%
2000 Bush, George W. 47.9%
2004 Bush, George W. 50.7%
2008 Obama, Barack 52.9%

Note: When Bush 1 clobbered Dukakis, and he really clobbered him far worse than Obama did McCain, in every catagory... people were talking about the collapse of the Dems... what happened after... 8 years of dem.

You people are some kind of reverse chicken littles. Get a grip.

yes, that was the past.

but demographics are changing.
as downtown pointed out, the republican party will have to adapt.
 
Are you seriously suggesting that the GOP lost, and will further lose because of demographic trends & the ethnic vote?

ahahaha, well put! I am becoming Canadian slowly it seems.

This election, the GOP lost pretty much every single demographic except white males. Maybe even young white males. And that's a shrinking demographic.

They also lost nearly every single competitive election nationwide. Just about everybody gets at least 40% nationally...the concern is that its becoming a *regional* party. (i.e, only really strong in the south and parts of the mountain west). Given their demographic strengths, and the way the US demographics are projected to change, its obvious they are going to have to adapt. In the future, there are going to be a lot more downtowns in this country.

Sonok had a great post on this. I'll go more in depth when I get back from class today

If you increase the share of the vote cast by blacks in 1992 by that amount -- and offset their gains with equal reductions among college and noncollege whites -- the result tightens, but McCain still edges out Obama, 49.2 percent to 49.1 percent. The distance between these "fantasy baseball" results and Obama's 7-point real-world victory underscores the political impact of demographic change.

...

The best way to illustrate that prospect is to pitch the thought experiment forward 12 years. Imagine that the major demographic groups voted as they did in 2008, but cast a share of the vote equal to their expected share of the population in 2020. (For argument's sake, let's divide whites among college and noncollege voters in the same proportions as today.) In that scenario, Obama beats McCain by nearly 14 points -- almost twice as much as in 2008. Demography will indeed be destiny if Republicans can't broaden their reach.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php
 
The Republican approach to minority politics has always been through social issues, as many minorities hold reactionary views that fit with the Republican mold. However, one big problem for the Republicans is that minorities happen to hate white people and wealthy people in general, something that the GOP has always been known for.

You Sir/Madam are quite deranged, minority groups don't hate white people or wealthy people, though some distrust white people because there are many racist white people, and some do not like rich people because there are groups that want very low taxes for the rich
 
i dislike rich people and i'm white...
 
You Sir/Madam are quite deranged, minority groups don't hate white people or wealthy people, though some distrust white people because there are many racist white people, and some do not like rich people because there are groups that want very low taxes for the rich

I congratulate you on your common sense.

The premise should have been shot down since the beginning.
 
Percent of popular vote:
1988 Bush, George H.W. 53.4%
1992 Clinton, Bill 43.0%
1996 Clinton, Bill 49.2%
2000 Bush, George W. 47.9%
2004 Bush, George W. 50.7%
2008 Obama, Barack 52.9%

Note: When Bush 1 clobbered Dukakis, and he really clobbered him far worse than Obama did McCain, in every catagory... people were talking about the collapse of the Dems... what happened after... 8 years of dem.

You people are some kind of reverse chicken littles. Get a grip.

When the Democrats were handily defeated for a third time it took a large amount of reform and luck, from Perot, to finally win back the white house. The Republicans are going to have to do the same level of reform or expect the Democratic control for atleast 12 years.
 
And Change, is one thing conservatives have difficulty with.

Kind of the definition of conservative... but somehow i think they will pull through just fine.
 
In Canada( more multicultural than the US) the conservative Party has recently done better in high immigrant areas then has the Liberal or NDP(socialist) party. I don't think ethnicity or cosmopolitanism is contrary to conservatism.
Thats a rather laughable statement considering canada is 85 percent white.

On topic the republican party will implode just like the democratic party did in 02 which is to say not at all. Its not like its hard to adapt and the older generation of neoconservative republican politicians has been largely discredited so we should be on the up.
The fastest growing minority group hispanics are generally religious and socially conservative its just a matter of demonstrating that as well as quieting the scaremongers and we are back up again.
 
Just remember in 2002, 6 YEARS AGO, the talk was of a permanent Republican majority. Things change quickly.

Yes and had the Republicans thought out what they were going to do such a thing might have happened. If the Democrats approach their gains very pragmatically, don't skip on the small stuff (state legislature control, 2010 redistricting), build proper coalitions and focus on growth they could marginalize the Republicans for years to come. Or they could sit on their asses like I expect them to.

I can't fathom just how big an issue race is in the US.. :(

It's every bitter feeling Quebec and the rest of the country have ever held towards one another... multiplied many fold.
 
Yes and had the Republicans thought out what they were going to do such a thing might have happened. If the Democrats approach their gains very pragmatically, don't skip on the small stuff (state legislature control, 2010 redistricting), build proper coalitions and focus on growth they could marginalize the Republicans for years to come. Or they could sit on their asses like I expect them to.

Yeah. This is the Democrats. Not gonna happen :p
 
Various ridiculus posts in the thread aside, I guess I can still say something here. Who knows, maybe this post and the other few good ones would help the thread be just a little more decent.

The Republicans do have a problem... a problem one major branch of the party denies and the other clearly sees. When Palin was picked, certain fiscal conservs wanted her to talk about energy, the economy, the budget, and anti-corruption. That would have been a huge addition in the Republican ticket. Coupled with the economic problems, making the election about social conservatism was an automatic loss for the Republicans. Both candiates on the Republican side looked much more conservative than either actually was. The only group not to think so was the conservatives.

The alliance within the party is slowly coming apart. If Dems start picking up social conservatives who are turning away from more capitalistic measures and the Republicans do not expand their base in any direction, than the Dems will have control for years to come.

Hispanics. Mexican-Americans are the swing group (largest documented group of immigrants are young, male Mexicans). They are more conservative and slightly to the left than the average person. The key issue to bring Mexican Americans over to Republicans is immigration reform. It couldn't be more obvious. I bet even Holy King knows this. ;) The Southwest hangs in the balance, here. Cuban-Americans are generally capitalistic. There is a notable difference in social beliefs between older and younger Cubans. If the Republicans want to keep the Cubans with them, they will need to shift in social policy (no embargo... before the Dems start doing things like that) and learn how to balance a budget. Florida hangs in the balance. Puerto Ricans are just not very suitable for Republicans, only unforseeable trends of either group would change it. New York isn't exactly hanging... at all.

Every demographic increase through immigration into this country should be heavily considered by the Republicans, especially if the immigrants are the "Land of opportunity" types looking for a right-wing society that would gave them a fair shake to play the game.

Here is another way to look at it. The social conservatives are like that player that causes a lot of disruption in the locker room of a team. The team would not want to bring in free agents, who would probably not work so well with him. The team keeps him, because he has a huge following, and the team needs the support to win the game. Unfortunately, he thinks he is the team and is the highest paid player on the team (platform hoggers). If things continue to go bad, the negativity must be stopped, and that means striking the contract. It is actually not inherantly bad for the fiscals, if there is a break up. They can make other deals with FAs or actually draft rookies (immigrants). It is bad for the one about to lose his contract with the team, who would have to depend upon his former rival team for scraps. Yes, I know the fiscals would suffer from an initial sting from the break of contract. That's why it has not been done, already.
 
Zarn you cannot dump the social conservatives and still have a Republican party, it would be the libertarian party but with maybe 15-20% of the vote. This is the party that Reagan built along with Robertson,Falwell and Bush II. It will take a while to change it and there is no rationale for that change ATM.

Immigration Reform:lol::lol:. That would drive away the 20 million or so ditto head racists in the party. A huge hit to take. And their racist hyperventalating would taint the party anyway even if the mainstream Republicans went along. It is a tough spot.
 
Immigration Reform:lol::lol:. That would drive away the 20 million or so ditto head racists in the party. A huge hit to take. And their racist hyperventalating would taint the party anyway even if the mainstream Republicans went along. It is a tough spot.

Except you forgot that Bush campaigned heavily on the notion of immigration reform in 2004 and the so called "ditto heads" still voted for him.
 
Top Bottom