How is everything not collapsing in the US?

[amadeus]

There was a thread before about the coronavirus and economics. I’ll restate my position as I believe I had written it before:

I think because we have an easily-identifiable disaster as opposed to a typical economic recession where the cause is opaque. The unemployment subsidy is also playing a role of course in masking the damage, but then I think that gets into a numbers game more than a reasoning of why attitudes are the way they are.

Comparing it to the housing bubble, what are the conditions necessary to “get out” of it? Were banks lending too much? Were Fed. rates too low? Too high? It gets into questions that most people wouldn’t have an answer for, and questions that many economists couldn’t agree on.

I have no idea if that’s what’s really going on, but that’s my gut reaction.

 

[innonimatu]

I think because we have an easily-identifiable disaster as opposed to a typical economic recession where the cause is opaque.

I think that the coronavirus was just the trigger for the current crisis. A number of things that were already going on: the US-China confrontation, the concentration of wealth in most countries, the compensation for that with more debt, financial asset bubbles...

 

[Zardnaar]

But those countries are taking a GDP hit too.

Not 33%. Last I looked our unemployment hit 7% and we're running at 95% pre Covid.

 

[Commodore]

How is everything not collapsing in the US?

Because USA #1, that's how.

 

[amadeus]

I think that the coronavirus was just the trigger for the current crisis. A number of things that were already going on: the US-China confrontation, the concentration of wealth in most countries, the compensation for that with more debt, financial asset bubbles...

I think there existed the possibility of a slowdown or contraction, but I would not have called that a crisis.

I think given the situation we are in now, it almost seems that some of Trump’s rhetoric was prophetic, although his actions haven’t been at all consistent with it and poorly executed where it has.

 

[Lexicus]

In your post i quoted, you said market collapse. Above you seem to be talking about more than that. Can world markets collapse such that the damage is mostly done to the wealthy? Or must they take everyone else down too? In any widespread collapse, it is likely that the top 20% will not be affected substantially unless the stock markets also go fully to zero.

it depends on...bear with me here...the government's macroeconomic policy response. Since this is a depression being caused by a pandemic rather than a financial crisis, it will also depend on the government's covid-19 strategy.

Since the government has neither, it doesn't take a genius to conclude we are going to have big problems, and even if the election happens properly and Biden wins he is going to have quite a hole to dig us out of. The former point is what really concerns me because while I do think putting the Democrats in power will be a good thing wrt the pandemic, I am not sure they know what they're doing when it comes to the macro.

That is a zero-sum game: if workers start making demands instead of meekly submitting to the "discipline of the market", the extremely wealthy upper class lose some of their power over the rest of the population: to be served unquestioningly by them as an "economic necessity". They'd rather lose half their wealth (or more...) in a crisis where everyone loses, but keep their power of command over the rest of society.

This is exactly correct.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Even before this crisis, basically my whole life since I understood what global warming was I've had this uncomfortable feeling that everything is fake and fragile and held together by collective belief and sacrifice of the future.

this is a good post and I agree fully

I think the fact that for some of us this feels like literal end times while others act and feel like everything is completely normal is one of the causes of major stress and confusion. I don't want to go full Ben Shapiro facts and logic in this one, but some things are objectively horrible about the current state of the world, climate change, environmental degradation and """civilizational diseases""" are some of those.

one thing I consider really interesting is a look at Saudi Arabia. here is a country that is rich as all freaking hell, still enjoying slave labor today, enough "social cohesion" to make solid policy choices, honestly sheer infinite potential to transform all that wealth and all the ressources they have into something positive. a land protected by the strongest military nation in the world, on toop of the ME food chain, a land which literally did not know of obesity in the slightest for the last 8000 years of human history, and in the span of just a few years (!) they have become on of the fattest, most heart diseased nations in the entire world, and once the oil runs out, or once climate restrictions get harder, they will most definitely drive everything in the ground.

 

[AmazonQueen]

this is a good post and I agree fully

I think the fact that for some of us this feels like literal end times while others act and feel like everything is completely normal is one of the causes of major stress and confusion. I don't want to go full Ben Shapiro facts and logic in this one, but some things are objectively horrible about the current state of the world, climate change, environmental degradation and """civilizational diseases""" are some of those.

one thing I consider really interesting is a look at Saudi Arabia. here is a country that is rich as all freaking hell, still enjoying slave labor today, enough "social cohesion" to make solid policy choices, honestly sheer infinite potential to transform all that wealth and all the ressources they have into something positive. a land protected by the strongest military nation in the world, on toop of the ME food chain, a land which literally did not know of obesity in the slightest for the last 8000 years of human history, and in the span of just a few years (!) they have become on of the fattest, most heart diseased nations in the entire world, and once the oil runs out, or once climate restrictions get harder, they will most definitely drive everything in the ground.

I'm just glad I don't have grandchildren (yet). I reckon the collapse will come after I'm gone but unless our society changes drastically I don't think the long term outlook is good.

 

[Bugfatty300]

How is everything not collapsing in the US?

Winter is coming.

 

[The Civs 6]

What a stupid thread. We'll continue being #1 while the haters keep on hating. Every other country tries to hide their problems because they have a sad inferiority complex. We are the only country on the planet that airs our dirty laundry and puts our own flaws and faults on a microphone for the world to see and judge. Most of you outside the US live in countries with a smaller economy than California, Google, Microsoft or Amazon, who represent a small fraction of the US. Chew on that for a second.

 

[r16]

america is just a follower of New Turkey , as in the handlers of the latter decided to bring their exercise of truly running countries to the ground , because let me see , well , money is somehow running out . Typical r16 garbage , except ı have been hearing the same exact statements for almost two decades now , without America's statistics , too . lnferiority complex of others might very well be a delusion of superiority in one ...

 

[The Civs 6]

america is just a follower of New Turkey , as in the handlers of the latter decided to bring their exercise of truly running countries to the ground , because let me see , well , money is somehow running out . Typical r16 garbage , except ı have been hearing the same exact statements for almost two decades now , without America's statistics , too . lnferiority complex of others might very well be a delusion of superiority in one ...

I honestly can't tell what you are saying. I'll be happy to respond if you can be a little more clear with your writing.

 

[AmazonQueen]

What a stupid thread. We'll continue being #1 while the haters keep on hating. Every other country tries to hide their problems because they have a sad inferiority complex. We are the only country on the planet that airs our dirty laundry and puts our own flaws and faults on a microphone for the world to see and judge. Most of you outside the US live in countries with a smaller economy than California, Google, Microsoft or Amazon, who represent a small fraction of the US. Chew on that for a second.

Must be a Texan.

 

[The Civs 6]

Must be a Texan.

You can't deny any of the facts that I posted. Try denying one. Sadly you must resort to ad hominem attacks, because all you have are emotions and ideology and no logic or facts on your side.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Too many bear avatars. More diversity please.

 

[Hrothbern]

You can't deny any of the facts that I posted. Try denying one. Sadly you must resort to ad hominem attacks, because all you have are emotions and ideology and no logic or facts on your side.

Hey...
You are using my avatar !

 

[r16]

I honestly can't tell what you are saying. I'll be happy to respond if you can be a little more clear with your writing.

because Capitalism can no longer produce its non-stop wonders , the boys from Langley , especially those who think themselves as modern day Templars , fit to run the world by force or conspiracy , allowed the creation of Trump Presidency , where the norms and rules that enforced a more humane version of the fakeness that is called American dream are being removed as fast as possible . What you believe to be American superiority over other nations ? We have been hearing it for ages , how the world is jealous of New Turkey and none of the statistics that come from Ankara these days is ever taken to be true . Your country was actually THE banana republic , Dulles Brothers and Guatamela and how that fruit decided the path of the "greatest power" on earth . With Trump and company you are on your way to become a banana republic in its more widespread definition .

 

[The Civs 6]

because Capitalism can no longer produce its non-stop wonders , the boys from Langley , especially those who think themselves as modern day Templars , fit to run the world by force or conspiracy , allowed the creation of Trump Presidency , where the norms and rules that enforced a more humane version of the fakeness that is called American dream are being removed as fast as possible . What you believe to be American superiority over other nations ? We have been hearing it for ages , how the world is jealous of New Turkey and none of the statistics that come from Ankara these days is ever taken to be true . Your country was actually THE banana republic , Dulles Brothers and Guatamela and how that fruit decided the path of the "greatest power" on earth . With Trump and company you are on your way to become a banana republic in its more widespread definition .

Okay then... I would suggest laying of the conspiracy Youtube videos for a while.

 

[Farm Boy]

Too many bear avatars.

Impossible.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Every other country tries to hide their problems because they have a sad inferiority complex. We are the only country on the planet that airs our dirty laundry and puts our own flaws and faults on a microphone for the world to see and judge.

He says, in a world where a good amount of the free world is struggling with Coronavirus, Australia and Brazil are literally on fire, half of Europe is falling for autocrats, Chinese are openly making minorities disappear and crush down on Hong Kong, with regular coverage of bombings in the middle east. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are never critisized, nah.