How much damage will Trump do?

How much damage will Trump do?

  • Thin skin + nuclear codes = Armageddon

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Are you kidding? This guy's too incompetent even to *fail* in any measurable degree

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    35
...but their temptation to go all in...

With a clear "you're on your own if you do" statement from China I'm pretty sure they would not be tempted at all. And since China is no more interested in seeing that ground war than anyone else outside the US Neo-Con and Alt Right movements that statement is almost certainly being made.

As I said, NK would claim that "the air strikes missed all vital targets and hit only schools and hospitals but in the interests of global peace this warmongering will be handled through diplomatic channels in the UN where North Korea is the most respected of all voices." This would be laughed at in all the usual places and accepted without open debate (which is not the same as believed, exactly) in North Korea. They would set about rebuilding their nuclear programs and the status quo would be maintained.

No decimating ground war that would send millions of Korean refugees flooding into China is going to happen.

No "getting China to go along with tighter sanctions" that would send millions of Korean refugees flooding into China is going to happen.

And no, bloodthirsty totalitarian maniacs, the US isn't going to "glass" twenty-five million people for your entertainment. Hopefully. You do have some of your own frighteningly close to the seat of power though, I'll grant you that.
 
I'm not so sure we can argue about the rationality of such a regime, an attack on their installations could well be interpreted as an attack on their legitimacy. Even if the top leadership refrains from responding, their entire culture has oriented itself to expect a war with the Main Adversary. All it would take is one jumpy or eager border commander to interpret whatever military action as the beginning of a full scale assault. They shoot, South Koreans shoot back and the whole thing escalates way beyond anyone's intention.

And China? What's a few million refugees to them? It's a bother sure, but they ain't go to break themselves over any human rights violations and we certainly won't stop buying their cheap goods. Would they want to avoid this? Absolutely. But if the whole thing spirals out of control...
 
I'm not so sure we can argue about the rationality of such a regime, an attack on their installations could well be interpreted as an attack on their legitimacy. Even if the top leadership refrains from responding, their entire culture has oriented itself to expect a war with the Main Adversary. All it would take is one jumpy or eager border commander to interpret whatever military action as the beginning of a full scale assault. They shoot, South Koreans shoot back and the whole thing escalates way beyond anyone's intention.

And China? What's a few million refugees to them? It's a bother sure, but they ain't go to break themselves over any human rights violations and we certainly won't stop buying their cheap goods. Would they want to avoid this? Absolutely. But if the whole thing spirals out of control...

I tend to think of things like this as "arrogance of the west," though I could be wrong. I also don't mean anything personal by using the word "arrogance." Thing is that it is just really easy to question the "rationality" of a rival, unless you acknowledge some realities. You don't maintain control of a nation of 25 million by being irrational. You don't make brazenly foolish decisions that will lead inevitably to your downfall and demise. And you don't keep a loose grip on your border commanders.

I am certainly biased by having been deep into MAD during the cold war...but I believe there are really no 'hair trigger happy' people at the front lines of confrontation. That sort of thinking gets weeded out in the run up and by the time the actual standoff is in place everyone involved is ice cold pragmatic about it. I see no reason to think that the standoff in Korea is any different.
 
I think if Best Korea were inclined towards that particular route of national suicide, it'd already have happened a while ago. I may be wrong, but I'd guess that it hasn't happened yet is a pretty strong argument that, barring some great upheaval, it won't happen in the foreseeable future. Because AFAIK Best Korea hasn't gotten significantly more nutty, or seen any serious changes to its political system, in decades.
 
I think if Best Korea were inclined towards that particular route of national suicide, it'd already have happened a while ago. I may be wrong, but I'd guess that it hasn't happened yet is a pretty strong argument that, barring some great upheaval, it won't happen in the foreseeable future. Because AFAIK Best Korea hasn't gotten significantly more nutty, or seen any serious changes to its political system, in decades.

Right. If a Kim were looking for national suicide there have been any number of "affronts" that could have been puffed up as justification.
 
I tend to think of things like this as "arrogance of the west," though I could be wrong. I also don't mean anything personal by using the word "arrogance." Thing is that it is just really easy to question the "rationality" of a rival, unless you acknowledge some realities. You don't maintain control of a nation of 25 million by being irrational. You don't make brazenly foolish decisions that will lead inevitably to your downfall and demise. And you don't keep a loose grip on your border commanders.

I am certainly biased by having been deep into MAD during the cold war...but I believe there are really no 'hair trigger happy' people at the front lines of confrontation. That sort of thinking gets weeded out in the run up and by the time the actual standoff is in place everyone involved is ice cold pragmatic about it. I see no reason to think that the standoff in Korea is any different.

I don't know. I've been reading US and Soviet political/military/espionage archives as a hobby for some time now. I no longer believe that such people can be entirely eliminated and even during the Cuban crisis, certain commanders on both sides lobbied for a first strike right that moment. Even when such people are marginalized there were a lot of close call events (of varying degrees and levels) on both sides that nearly blew us all to hell. We have been incredibly lucky in my opinion, or as you say such people have been selected against.

All it takes some fear and confusion and bam you have your outlier event. The Tonkin event was US shooting at shadows and the administration politicizing it as a conclusive proof of a brazen attack. Similarly I can imagine a commander seeing everything is being jammed and hearing aircraft and bombs. Does he respond and risk war? Does he not respond and risks being shot or gulag'd? I have no idea, North Korean information is hard to come by. I hope you're right.
 
I don't know. I've been reading US and Soviet political/military/espionage archives as a hobby for some time now. I no longer believe that such people can be entirely eliminated and even during the Cuban crisis, certain commanders on both sides lobbied for a first strike right that moment. Even when such people are marginalized there were a lot of close call events (of varying degrees and levels) on both sides that nearly blew us all to hell. We have been incredibly lucky in my opinion, or as you say such people have been selected against.

All it takes some fear and confusion and bam you have your outlier event. The Tonkin event was US shooting at shadows and the administration politicizing it as a conclusive proof of a brazen attack. Similarly I can imagine a commander seeing everything is being jammed and hearing aircraft and bombs. Does he respond and risk war? Does he not respond and risks being shot or gulag'd? I have no idea, North Korean information is hard to come by. I hope you're right.

Fit the Gulf of Tonkin into what I said. If Kim wanted to lead NK to national suicide there have been any number of affronts that could be puffed up as justification. GoT was just such an affront that got puffed up...just not as justification for national suicide because the US vs Viet Nam was a flyswatter action. There was no "fear and confusion" involved.

Yes, there will always be idiot commanders advocating for "first strikes" and "survivable outcomes." That is actually sort of what commanders in those positions are paid to do. But the guy at the top of the 25 million person pyramid knows that a disastrous war with massive civilian casualties and devastation of the homeland is not a "survivable outcome" for them personally. Kennedy didn't ignore those commanders because he disagreed with them in regards to a nuclear exchange with the Soviets. The US would have, at that time, most likely have survived such an exchange.

But for the sitting president who would have been held responsible had it occurred a bullet to the head would have been the least painful thing he could have hoped for. There is no way to claim victory in a ruin, and all leaders know it. "You should see the other guy" just doesn't carry the freight.
 
I just don't think your emphasis stands as actually true.

First off, we agree that lil Kim doesn't 'want' to perform national suicide. He's certainly willing to bluff. And he's willing to surround himself with people who necessarily cannot stop him from bluffing.. But Kozmos specifically mentioned outlier events. Once his nukes are on the table, many fewer errors in judgment need to be made in order to have an outright horror. You don't know how he views the power of his new bluff vs the power of his old bluff.

I'll also be more worried about outlier events when a bank has a $1 trillion portfolio than a $100 million one. It's just easier to have a series of screwups mean something. And you need fewer screwups before something awful happens.
 
I voted constitutional crisis and erosion of political institutions & the public's faith in them. Although environmental damage is also a very serious one. The silver lining on that one is we're far enough along the move towards renewable energy that there's no chance of coal reviving, and renewables (and in the short term, natural gas) will continue to gain. But there's still a lot of additional pollution and reversed environmental regulations that could kill large numbers of people and/or contribute significantly to global warming. I have no faith in the EPA under Scott Pruitt.

Erosion of political institutions and the public faith seems almost inevitable. Besides being the only president with no relevant prior experience, and losing the popular vote by the second-largest margin ever (to John Quincy Adams), the ability of the executive branch to, err, execute effectively seems doubtful given its record so far, and his policies are only increasing polarization in the country, which will further erode public faith in government. The possible upside is a significant increase in political activism among liberals and independents, which could lead to longer-term civic engagement, assuming it doesn't lead to a yo-yo effect of alternating between populists and liberals and continually increasing polarization.

There are several ways I could see a constitutional crisis emerging, many of them exacerbated by questions about the president's willingness to cede power when the time comes for that. One of the big questions is ties to Russia and the possibility of treason, which could certainly provoke a constitutional crisis if the ties prove to be substantial, particularly if the president doesn't have the grace of Nixon in resigning. Even if the ties shown are more tenuous, it would significantly weaken public faith in the government and the executive branch's ability to advocate for policies. I would be surprised if at least some ties are not shown given the current evidence and the administration's denials, smear campaigns, and attacks on the media.

There also could be constitutional crises around civil rights and the Bill of Rights - already the Muslim Bans have rubbed up against that territory. Election results in 2020 could also provoke one if they are close and there are allegations of the election being rigged (or even in 2018, although that seems less likely). I also have misgivings about the possibility (likely at this point) of Senate Republicans being willing to "go nuclear", not so much with the filibuster itself, but potentially in other areas in the future. Their refusal to so much as hold a confirmation hearing for Merrick Garland in 2016 has already put them at the lowest possible rung of respect for normal government procedures in my opinion. And while this may not be directly attributable to the president, I doubt they would have tried to delay another four years had Clinton won the electoral college as well as the popular vote.

There is the possibility of war as well, but I see significantly damaging America from within as a considerably more likely scenario.
 
I just don't think your emphasis stands as actually true.

First off, we agree that lil Kim doesn't 'want' to perform national suicide. He's certainly willing to bluff. And he's willing to surround himself with people who necessarily cannot stop him from bluffing.. But Kozmos specifically mentioned outlier events. Once his nukes are on the table, many fewer errors in judgment need to be made in order to have an outright horror. You don't know how he views the power of his new bluff vs the power of his old bluff.

I'll also be more worried about outlier events when a bank has a $1 trillion portfolio than a $100 million one. It's just easier to have a series of screwups mean something. And you need fewer screwups before something awful happens.

Thing is that bluffs don't really matter. He's willing to claim that he will fire massive artillery into South Korea. Fine as a bluff. But he also knows that if he does there will be shooting back and he will be that leader standing in a ruin trying to claim victory. He's also willing to claim that his missile test shots into the ocean mean that he could actually hit something with them, and maybe he can. But again, if he actually did he would be standing in that ruin. A more powerful bluff is still a bluff.

The US is not bluffing. Dingbat Don or some other president, the US is by far and away the most dangerous force on the planet. If NK, or anyone else, were to fire a genuinely provoking shot they would be committing national suicide, and no one on the top of a 25 million person pyramid is so stupid that they don't know it.

So just like we did with GWBush at the helm if it comes down to it the US can and will get away with whatever we do. If an airstrike takes out NK's nuclear facilities the UN will gnash their teeth, and then say "yes, we authorized that" because the alternative is to either impose sanctions on the US that they couldn't enforce or not sanction the US in the face of saying that the US just took rogue actions. NK will cry on the outside while L'il Kim claims victory on the inside so he doesn't lose his own people. And that will be that.
 
Kim serves at the pleasure of Beijing
Well, yeah. That doesn't mean they could just say "step down" and point to someone they like better and say "your turn." They could support the international sanctions and cut the last lifeline and hungry Koreans would be eating Kim by the end of the month though. The reason they don't is because even more hungry Koreans would be swarming over the borders...and one of those borders is their own.

Plus, by the time the civil war and food rioting ended there's no telling who would be in power in NK. Better the devil you know, as the saying goes.
 
With a clear "you're on your own if you do" statement from China I'm pretty sure they would not be tempted at all. And since China is no more interested in seeing that ground war than anyone else outside the US Neo-Con and Alt Right movements that statement is almost certainly being made.

Interestingly, to this group I would add a small cadre of Posadist Facebook commenters who apparently believe that a Best Korea-initiated nuclear war is the only way to destroy the edifice of US imperialism.
 
North Korea haters, post here, please, when you're about to die from the nuclear missiles sent in retaliation, which seemed to be impossible.
 
  1. Thin skin + nuclear codes = Armageddon - I highly doubt it. His decisions thus far have been those of advisers (Previously this seems to have been chiefly Steve Bannon, who was at least against this intervention in Syria, and now Jared Kushner and H. R. McMaster seem to have the president's ear), and whilst his advisers seem to be giving him poor advice, there is no way hey would ever advocate such an action.
  2. Major pointless international military conflict costing tens of thousands of lives - * Possibly hundreds of thousands of lives- look at the death toll in the Iraq wars, and the hundreds of thousands that have already died in this current comflict with ISIS in Syria and Iraw. And yes, that definitely seems to be the current direction. They'll also be another migrant crisis, putting pressure on Merkel and the EU to take more refugees, and as these refugees will often first be entering Turkey, this will give Turkish dictator Erdogan (also allegedly an anti-semite, having supposedly made Hitler-esque propoaganda when he was younger- https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mas-Kom-Yah) even more bargaining power.
  3. Constitutional crisis so severe as to provoke armed conflict within the US- I highly doubt Trump will provoke such a conflict.
  4. Mostly non-violent Constitutional crisis that nevertheless shakes America to its core- However, I suppose that a non-violent constitutional crisis is definitely possible.
  5. Unstinting erosion and corrosion of all political institutions and the public's faith in them- Well, the public already seems to have lost faith in the government which is going backing on its promises (Hilary was for intervention in Syria, and Trump attacked her because of this, and now he's implementing her policy- what the hell was the point in anyone voting for him?) and in intelligence agencies that are destroying internet privacy.
  6. Kleptocracy, mostly; he'll line his pockets with taxpayers money- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...axpayer-barack-obama-month-year-a7586261.html - I don't know if he'll directly extort the country, but he's already living a life of luxury on your taxes.
  7. The checks and balances are strong; he won't make trouble of any significant degree- True to an extent- for example he can't put in place some domestic policies that are ill-advised (such as travel bans that don't even target the main countries terrorists come from). But, in terms of foreign policy, there is really not all that much in his way, and he seems to be surrounded by people who are giving him some very poor advise on foreign policy.
  8. Are you kidding? This guy's too incompetent even to *fail* in any measurable degree- To incompetent to fail? What does that even mean? You don't need malicious intentions to fail horribly, gross incompetence will do just fine!
  9. What do you mean damage? He's going to make America great again!- I definitely got where he was coming from on some points during the campaign. For one, whilst a wall is probably entirely impractical and really just a gesture, and his broad-brushing of illegal immigrants as 'criminal' is very inaccurate (most are good, hard working people), I do agree that it is important that the United States has a secure border that is enforced properly. I also am not in favour of the culture of 'political correctness' (where you can't tell the truth when it is offensive) which Trump has attacked- though perhaps that pendulum has swung too far in the other direction now, and a lot of 'alt-right' supporters of Trump are not more . Also, the economy hasn't collapsed like many said it would- in fact there is a lot of optimism that the economy will continue to perform well under Trump, and that Trump has the opportunity to deliver on his job promises. But definitely his foreign policy, his awful handling of criticism and his continual inconsistency and dishonesty leave a lot to be desired.
 
  1. Kleptocracy, mostly; he'll line his pockets with taxpayers money- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...axpayer-barack-obama-month-year-a7586261.html - I don't know if he'll directly extort the country, but he's already living a life of luxury on your taxes.

Keep in mind that an awful lot of those taxpayer dollars being spent to accommodate security, the president's entourage, and his foreign guests are being spent at properties that the president owns. Our tax dollars are indeed lining his pockets, and despite having been supposedly SO UPSET at the thought of someone (HRC) using public office to enrich herself, Trump is simply doing the exact same thing, only he's using OUR money, in addition to the increased fees at his properties that he is able to charge solely because he is now president.
 
He is Trump. He can do that because he is Trump. Trump is better than them. Heil the Trump.
 
Keep in mind that an awful lot of those taxpayer dollars being spent to accommodate security, the president's entourage, and his foreign guests are being spent at properties that the president owns. Our tax dollars are indeed lining his pockets, and despite having been supposedly SO UPSET at the thought of someone (HRC) using public office to enrich herself, Trump is simply doing the exact same thing, only he's using OUR money, in addition to the increased fees at his properties that he is able to charge solely because he is now president.

You've got to remember that lots of people have been put off Trump's businesses due to his presidential campaign. His net worth is actually declining, so as we stand right now, to argue that he is enriching himself on taxpayers dollars seems pretty silly.
 
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