How much intelligent life is there?

[Kennigit]

I don't know, so I said 5 sounds like a good number. Has more existed? Yes. Will more exist? Also yes.

If other intelligent life is like us, I bet that they ran into their own problems and ran their courses throughout at most 30,000 year spans (depending on how you are defining civilized). If we look at humans and say that ~8000 B.C. or there abouts (10k years ago) we began our "civilized" stage, we won't last another 20k years. 30,000 years is not a very large chunk of time in the universe, so although millions of intelligent species could have exist, I doubt they live in unison very much.

Of course, this is extremely arbitrary. Actually, I should say less than 1,000 at a time- 5 is waaaaaaaay to small.

 

[illram]

I read an essay by some scientist dude, about dyson spheres/dyson swarms and "Matrioshka brains" and their feasibility within the next million years, and how they could explain the fermi paradox. He posits that advanced civilizations have stuck around their own systems and have essentially uploaded themselves to china doll like dyson swarms of billions of computers orbiting their respective suns, utilizing all the resources within their own systems and any others they can get to. They do not ever physically leave or explore, because they exist within their own virtual world forever. They only need to expand if they require additional resources for more matrioshka brains/dyson swarms/whatever. And/or they have completely enclosed themselves in a dyson sphere and are therefore undetectable from long range. (And would also have no reason to ever leave.)

Completely unprovable and speculative but kind of cool to think about if you are a sci-fi nerd like myself.

As for how many aliens there are, I would just go with whatever reasonable number you could get from Drake's equation.

 

[Quiet Sound]

So there are hundreds of billions of star systems in our galaxy and you think there are 10?

SIM 'Lite' (formerly called Space Interferometry Mission), currently under development, will determine the positions and distances of stars several hundred times more accurately than any previous program. This accuracy will allow SIM to determine the distances to stars throughout the galaxy and to probe nearby stars for Earth-sized planets.

Granted it won't be examining the entire galaxy but...

 

[Fifty]

I BET THERES HELLA INTELLIGENT LIFE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!l

 

[jeps]

3.

I like to think, in general, humans are intelligent beings. not collectively, but as a whole. in groups, we're raving loonies.

and we ALL know that mice and dolphins are smarter than we are. therefore, 3.

 

[holy king]

And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space,
'Cause there's bugger all down here on Earth.

 

[Warman17]

The Drake equation states that:

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

where:

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

--------------------------

Thats from wikipedia. I don't know what it means, but I'm pretty sure it's relevant.

Except we have no idea what fℓ fi fc and L are and have nothing to base even a guess on. For all we know we really are the only intelligent life in the universe. They say there is 10^21 stars in the universe, but its possible the chances of intelligent life on any of those is 1/10^21 and we happen to be it.

In other words there is no way to make an adequate guess at the number of intelligent beings off this planet. I would agree it seems hard to believe we're the only intelligent lifeforms in the universe given its immense size, but until evidence shows to the contrary it is what we should believe.

 

[warpus]

More than 5 but less than 100,000

 

[El_Machinae]

I read an essay by some scientist dude, about dyson spheres/dyson swarms and "Matrioshka brains" and their feasibility within the next million years, and how they could explain the fermi paradox. He posits that advanced civilizations have stuck around their own systems and have essentially uploaded themselves to china doll like dyson swarms of billions of computers orbiting their respective suns, utilizing all the resources within their own systems and any others they can get to. They do not ever physically leave or explore, because they exist within their own virtual world forever. They only need to expand if they require additional resources for more matrioshka brains/dyson swarms/whatever. And/or they have completely enclosed themselves in a dyson sphere and are therefore undetectable from long range. (And would also have no reason to ever leave.)

Completely unprovable and speculative but kind of cool to think about if you are a sci-fi nerd like myself.

As for how many aliens there are, I would just go with whatever reasonable number you could get from Drake's equation.

It kinda makes sense that it would sometimes happen. I mean, we'll all be uploaded and orbiting the Sun having our super-fast thoughts and our super-fast communications. If I wanted to leave to another star, it would take me years. Years of having less access to the Sun's mass, energy, companionship, etc.

And think about the technological curve. If a team had left for Alpha Centauri 5 years ago, they'd be landing with 2003 technology. No iPhones! So, at best, they'd be 5 years behind financially and scientifically. If technology was advancing even more quickly, they'd be even more behind.

I often comment that I'm going to colonise my own star someday. I still think I will, but it's probably going to be 1,000-10,000 light years away. The worry is that I'll leave at near c and arrive to a 5,000 year old civilization that beat me there with FTL.

 

[Perfection]

Why so far El Mac?

 

[Sharwood]

The Drake equation is a great way to work this out. The problem is we have no idea of the numbers to put in most spots in the equation. Based solely on a wild guess, I'd say there are millions of intelligent species, but very few that will reach the level of interstellar travel. After all, there's already been at least one intelligent species on this planet that died out, and chimps and orang-utans show definite signs of sapience.

 

[El_Machinae]

Why so far El Mac?

So I can get a good star with little competition. It's a type of homesteading, and the probability of getting an uncontested 'good' star is higher if you go further out. On the downside, I'll lose all those years while everyone else is doing their thang. On the other hand, we all might want our very own galaxies, so we'll see how that goes.

 

[Eukaryote]

The GALAXY is huge. I went with 1,000-10,000 and I consider that a conservitive guess.

 

[Tee Kay]

Sapient life - possibly more than 10,000, perhaps millions.

Intelligent life on the other hand - I doubt there's any.

 

[El_Machinae]

When we do meet alien intelligent life, I think we'll wish we were more technologically advanced than we were. There's always a bigger fish, but there's no reason to be the smallest fish.

 

[silver 2039]

None.

There is probably some, but until it is proven and discovered I refuse to acknowledge it.

 

[choxorn]

When we do meet alien intelligent life, I think we'll wish we were more technologically advanced than we were. There's always a bigger fish, but there's no reason to be the smallest fish.

Not entirely true. Somewhere, there's the smallest fish, and somewhere, there's the biggest fish. Qui-Gon isn't always right.

 

[silver 2039]

Yeah us humans are the biggest fish on this planet over the millions of other creatures.

 

[El_Machinae]

We may be the biggest fish on this planet, but just today over 20,000 people died because we weren't technologically advanced enough to beat malaria.

And on the interstellar stage, there's no good reason to think we're the most advanced. And if we're not, I betcha we're going to wish we were more advanced than we were.

 

[silver 2039]

And on the interstellar stage, there's no good reason to think we're the most advanced. And if we're not, I betcha we're going to wish we were more advanced than we were.

There's no good reason to think there's anything else out there at this point either. And the last part of your sentence confuses me.