How much intelligent life is there?

[warpus]

There's no good reason to think there's anything else out there at this point either.

If intelligent life sprang up here, but nowhere else in the entire Universe, then the odds of intelligent life popping up are insanelysmall.

If they're that small, then we are really really really really really really lucky & special to be here.

I don't think we're that lucky..

 

[silver 2039]

If intelligent life sprang up here, but nowhere else in the entire Universe, then the odds of intelligent life popping up are insanelysmall.

If they're that small, then we are really really really really really really lucky & special to be here.

I don't think we're that lucky..

Neither do I, but really at this point we don't have much evidence to support the prospect of life elsewhere. I will not presume there is life, let alone intelligent life when there is very little to support it. I've heard your argument a lot. Oh the universe is so huge that there must be something out there. It reeks of a sort of faith based argument to me.

 

[emzie]

Either just us, or an irrelevant number as they're too far away for us to discover one another.

If intelligent life sprang up here, but nowhere else in the entire Universe, then the odds of intelligent life popping up are insanelysmall.

If they're that small, then we are really really really really really really lucky & special to be here.

I don't think we're that lucky..

If we were that lucky, how would we know it? There's no way to know, so you can't assume either way based on our existence.

 

[El_Machinae]

Neither do I, but really at this point we don't have much evidence to support the prospect of life elsewhere. I will not presume there is life, let alone intelligent life when there is very little to support it. I've heard your argument a lot. Oh the universe is so huge that there must be something out there. It reeks of a sort of faith based argument to me.

It is faith-based. My comments are quite similar to Pascal's Wager, except that the Wager applies even more strongly in this case.

 

[emzie]

It is faith-based. My comments are quite similar to Pascal's Wager, except that the Wager applies even more strongly in this case.

I always understood Pascal's Wager to be an expression of self-interest. What is to be gained by believing there's intelligent life out there?

 

[El_Machinae]

I think there's value in preparing as if there's advanced intelligent life out there. We're gonna want to be advanced if we meet them. But in the meantime, being advanced doesn't hurt so much.

 

[North King]

More than 100, less than 1,000. So one for every billion stars, or one for every 100 million. Kinda lonely, when you think about it.

 

[warpus]

If we were that lucky, how would we know it? There's no way to know, so you can't assume either way based on our existence.

Well, here's the breakdown of possibilities as I see them:

1. We were really^5982385 lucky
2. We were really^5982384 lucky, but there is intelligent life on one other planet
...
18532854...32862680. Not lucky at all, intelligent life can be found in almost every solar system in the Universe

Now, that's a multitude of probabilities. You're right, we have no idea what they are, but it seems to me like picking the VERY EXTREME of all the potential possibilities is not going to be as probable as all the options in between, combined.

That's why I think the answer is somewhere in between.

Is it faith? Nah, it's just statistics.. It'd be faith if I was saying that there are exactly 7815 intelligent species out there, and listing the planets they hail from.

Call it an educated guess.

 

[Perfection]

That's not statistics; that's pulling numbers out your ass.

There's no good reason to think that intelligent life isn't exceedingly rare.

 

[Lord Parkin]

This whole thing is of course just speculation... but my guess goes for about 100, or maybe a bit more. One for every billion or so stars.

That is ridiculous.

The Drake equation is actually quite interesting, and not really too hard to grasp. Of course we don't have any idea about most of the numbers just yet, but it's philosophically interesting to consider the possible contributions to how many civilizations are out there in any one time. Personally, I find the "survival time" the most interesting factor in the equation to think about. Does intelligent life tend to destroy itself, or are we just too cynical?

Well, if they're common, why haven't they take over the galaxy yet?

Perhaps it's just too tricky to get around. Perhaps they're just not interested. Perhaps they have, but haven't noticed anything unusual in the neighbourhood of Earth yet. (After all, in galactic terms, we really only started using sticks and stones as tools the blink of an eye ago.)

There's the Fermi paradox to consider. As well, an intelligent species can colonise portions of the galaxy, and thus prevent the indigenous evolution of intelligent life by co-opting the ecosystem.

Another interesting thought is that perhaps they realise that intelligent life is developing in a certain system, and just let it develop while they watch. Sort of like a zoo.

I read an essay by some scientist dude, about dyson spheres/dyson swarms and "Matrioshka brains" and their feasibility within the next million years, and how they could explain the fermi paradox. He posits that advanced civilizations have stuck around their own systems and have essentially uploaded themselves to china doll like dyson swarms of billions of computers orbiting their respective suns, utilizing all the resources within their own systems and any others they can get to. They do not ever physically leave or explore, because they exist within their own virtual world forever. They only need to expand if they require additional resources for more matrioshka brains/dyson swarms/whatever. And/or they have completely enclosed themselves in a dyson sphere and are therefore undetectable from long range. (And would also have no reason to ever leave.)

Completely unprovable and speculative but kind of cool to think about if you are a sci-fi nerd like myself.

Very cool indeed.

Except we have no idea what fℓ fi fc and L are and have nothing to base even a guess on. For all we know we really are the only intelligent life in the universe. They say there is 10^21 stars in the universe, but its possible the chances of intelligent life on any of those is 1/10^21 and we happen to be it.

In other words there is no way to make an adequate guess at the number of intelligent beings off this planet. I would agree it seems hard to believe we're the only intelligent lifeforms in the universe given its immense size, but until evidence shows to the contrary it is what we should believe.

I'm not so sure about this. Regardless of whether there's intelligent life elsewhere or not, I think it's a good thing for us to assume that it might. If we assume there's life somewhere else, there's more incentive for us to put effort into advancing more quickly, and to emphasizing colonization of the galaxy - instead of wasting time bickering over flags and faces on this puny planet. The mysterious and vast universe around us awaits exploration.

None.

There is probably some, but until it is proven and discovered I refuse to acknowledge it.

Aren't you acknowledging it by saying "there is probably some..."?

There's no good reason to think there's anything else out there at this point either. And the last part of your sentence confuses me.

There are quite a few good reasons to think that we aren't the only intelligent life in the universe. I think the main one is that, unless you are a deeply religious person, it's pretty difficult to believe that we are that special.

Neither do I, but really at this point we don't have much evidence to support the prospect of life elsewhere. I will not presume there is life, let alone intelligent life when there is very little to support it. I've heard your argument a lot. Oh the universe is so huge that there must be something out there. It reeks of a sort of faith based argument to me.

I think it takes much more faith to believe that we are so very, very special and privileged that we are the only intelligent life around in the universe.

 

[bender19]

The Drake equation is rather useful, using the variables it gave and taking out the communication variable since that wasn't part of the question the estimate would be 50000.

My own estimate assuming 400 billion stars is that around 1 million would have intelligent life. This might seem high, and possibly is however that means 1 intelligent life form in every 400 000 stars makes the distance to travel to find another intelligent life form extreme, further once you factor in the different technoligical states its no surprise we haven't found anyone else.

I think the odds that we are the only intelligent life form are so extreme that the notion is simply ridiculous. People might ask why if its probable that there 1000s or even millions of intelligent life forms out there why isn't one so technologically advanced that its decides to take us over. The reality is we probably aren't worth taking over, given the rate of technology advancement to them it would seem impossible that we would advance sufficiently to pose a risk. We don't destroy every ant nest on our planet, likely they would only destroy us to utilise the resources of our solar system, and presumably a super intelligent life form would use the resources of the galaxy in a sustainable manner and thus not use them all at once.

 

[J-man]

Life in our galaxy is rather common I think, but intelligent is quite rare. Probably there are 2 to 5 intelligent species in the galaxy.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I'm guessing around 1.4

More than 1, but just low enough to be rounded down.

 

[Truronian]

It doesn't really matter, as we're unlikely to meet any of them.

 

[J-man]

It doesn't really matter, as we're unlikely to meet any of them.

It still is an intriguing idea and it seems now that it is highly unlikely that we ever meet them, but that could be different a hundred years from now.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

I refuse to accept the Drake Fake theory but you can all go ahead.

El Mach, I do think 10 is a ridiculously low number, I think 10,000 is a ridiculous low number. And I removed trillions about 5 seconds after that post. If there are 400 billion star systems, 10 is impossible unless you're the most ignorant of all the species that do exist in our galaxy.

 

[classical_hero]

If intelligent life sprang up here, but nowhere else in the entire Universe, then the odds of intelligent life popping up are insanelysmall.

If they're that small, then we are really really really really really really lucky & special to be here.

I don't think we're that lucky..

But many ardent evolutions do not even know how life first started on earth, due to the massive problems with abiogenesis. We hvave not seen one scenario come even close to come up with a plausable solution to the problem on how life first started on earth. So on that note I will say that there is not even intelligent life on here at times. Also anothe thing you need to realise is how inactive our region of the solar system is in comparision to the rest of the Universe, so there have only ever been found conditions on earth to be just right for life. I believe it takes more faith to believe that there is life outside of this planet than it does to say that God created life on earth and earth for a place to live with all the righ conditions for life to survive. I mean look at all the wild guesses that are going on and yet no one knows the real answer, but there is hope that it might be true, but if yo were to go on the evidence as presented, life outside of this planet is impossible.

 

[Alpine Trooper]

But many ardent evolutions do not even know how life first started on earth, due to the massive problems with abiogenesis. We hvave not seen one scenario come even close to come up with a plausable solution to the problem on how life first started on earth. So on that note I will say that there is not even intelligent life on here at times. Also anothe thing you need to realise is how inactive our region of the solar system is in comparision to the rest of the Universe, so there have only ever been found conditions on earth to be just right for life. I believe it takes more faith to believe that there is life outside of this planet than it does to say that God created life on earth and earth for a place to live with all the righ conditions for life to survive. I mean look at all the wild guesses that are going on and yet no one knows the real answer, but there is hope that it might be true, but if yo were to go on the evidence as presented, life outside of this planet is impossible.

No, you're just trying to make an insignificant ant like yourself feel important in a galaxy where you can't even get yourself to the next planet over let alone to work safely.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

But many ardent evolutionists [me] do not even know how life first started on earth, due to the massive problems with abiogenesis.

Neither do you. You just hail back to some old myths and say: there it is, without a shred of evidence.

So ready to critique science when it poses hypothetical scenarios but not bringing anything to the table because, hey man, it's faith, it don't need no evidence. So far all I have heard is: that is too improbable, so it must be God.

And evolutionist don;t deal directly with abiogenesis, but don't let that slow you down.

Also anothe thing you need to realise is how inactive our region of the solar system is in comparision to the rest of the Universe, so there have only ever been found conditions on earth to be just right for life. I believe it takes more faith to believe that there is life outside of this planet than it does to say that God created life on earth and earth for a place to live with all the righ conditions for life to survive.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/02/0203_050203_deepest.html

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,894282,00.html?promoid=googlep

http://www.panspermia.org/bacteria.htm

Right conditions indeed.

I mean look at all the wild guesses that are going on and yet no one knows the real answer, but there is hope that it might be true, but if yo were to go on the evidence as presented, life outside of this planet is impossible.

Going on the evidence presented you would conclude that it is unknown whether life exist outside our planet. Not impossible.

By the way, not conclusive, and not evidence, but interesting still ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/277674.stm

 

[classical_hero]

No, you're just trying to make an insignificant ant like yourself feel important in a galaxy where you can't even get yourself to the next planet over let alone to work safely.

Every attempt to find life on another planet has been proven to be fruitless. There has not been one contact made even though we are sending out radio waves out to the farthest reaches of the universe, s it is only the stuff of Sci Fi that we see such things, so start to accept reality for what it really is, that we are the only intelligent life form around. Do not say that there is probability, since first you need to show that life first formed here, since we know that Life could not have come from out of space, since Panspermia has been dealt a massive blow. Meteorite experiment deals blow to 'bugs from space' theory