No, it's dark speed.
Hmm?
Perhaps he's referring to the Neanderthals? I wouldn't call them quite as intelligent as us, but they were almost surely the second-most intelligent species to ever exist on this planet.
How much intelligent life is there?
- Thread starter choxorn
- Start date
No, it's dark speed.
Perhaps he's referring to the Neanderthals? I wouldn't call them quite as intelligent as us, but they were almost surely the second-most intelligent species to ever exist on this planet.
bigdog5994
Lady Day
i think about 75
TheLastOne36
Deity
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oh that makes sense... IIRC they were as intelligent as us, or maybe even more so, but they had problems communicating.
cubsfan6506
Got u
No none of those are.
No, they aren't.
Sharwood
Rich, doctor nephew
TheLastOne36
Deity
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I'm not sure if they would count though. There just a branch of our Genus...
Sharwood
Rich, doctor nephew
Our genus yes, but different enough to qualify. I know some scientists are now qualifying them as homo sapiens, but I wouldn't. After all, I believe the point is how many intelligent species there were. Could Neanderthals breed with us, and produce offspring capable of reproducing themselves? If not, they're a different species, and would qualify. I have to admit I don't know the answer to that question though.
theskald
This is a picture of me.
Life: Any single system that consumes energy to fuel a number of chemical processes which maintain an interior state of homeostasis and with a mechanism for reproduction or replication of said system.
I'm sure someone has a problem with this definition, so come on, let's hear it.
Intelligence: The most important stat in Fallout 3.
They evidently had a different number of chromosome pairs, so the answer is no.
LucyDuke
staring at the clock
Perfection
The Great Head.
So the universe must be proliferate with bobble head dolls? Pretty uncompelling argument.
I don't think anyone was making that claim, and certainly your views don't just fit that view.
As I see it, there's no reason it can't be that so incredibly rare, and there's no reason it must be that so incredibly rare. Anyone who says otherwise is either making a highly tenuous guess or isn't basing their belief on scientific principles.
Your view, that intelligent life exists in multiple iterations within the galaxy is pinning the probability to within a few orders of magnitude with absolutely no methodology. Those my friend, are ass numbers.
No I'm not. I'm saying that:
1. your estimated ranges are totally out of your ass
2. and that you can't discount such low probabilities
I never said that there was no intelligent life elsewhere in the universe or that the probability must be vanishingly small.
Here's the deal, there's about 5*10^22 stars in the universe, so for the universe to be empty besides us we'd need a probability of (native) intelligent life at ~0.0000000000000000000001 (10^-23) per star, please state specifically why it can't reasonably be below this number? "OMG, look at all the zeros" is not an acceptable response. Random plugging in ass numbers is also not an acceptable response. If you can't come up with a good reason, then I will continue to feel justified in calling your numbers ass numbers.
And it gets even assier numbers if we go to your original post which baselessly pegs the number between 0.00075 and .0000000125
You sure as heck do! You estimate a range? Back it up with math. Your cruddy intuition is a pile of horsecrap. Say it's above a certain value? Back it up!
warpus
Sommerswerd asked me to change this
natural processes
There's no reason it has to be so rare as to only appear on 1 planet, so rare to only appear on 2 planets, so rare .. 3 planets .. 4, 5, 6, 7 .. 100 .. 1000 .. 10^1005 planets, etc.
All I'm saying is - you pick one of the trillions (gazillions?) of numbers above (such as 1), and your probability of getting it right is going to be very very low. Close to 0.
I'm not picking an individual number - I'm picking a large range of numbers - making the probability of my guess much higher than yours.
See, I'm picking a range. You're picking 1 value... out of an immense collection of numbers.
It's like rolling a huge loaded die. You don't know how it's loaded, and your job is to guess what value is going to be facing up. Your options are anywhre between 1 and 10,000. You are picking 1. I am picking the range of anything between 2 and 5,000. Even though we have no idea what the probabilities of each number coming up are, I have more of a chance of being right (because yeah, it's possible that 1 is loaded in such a way that it will come up 90% of the time - but there are millions of possibilities the die could be loaded, and we just have no idea how)
LucyDuke
staring at the clock
Where did Perf pick a number?
Perfection
The Great Head.
Bobble head production is a completely natural process. And if you're going to suddenly lump out, "no intelligently created stuff", then I get to rule out, "no millions of years of evolutionary chaos stuff".
Well the thing is if the likelihood of the probability being of any given star having intelligent life is greater than ~.0000000125 is significantly less then .5 then 1 becomes by far the most favored choice.
Since you do not have any reason to suspect that .0000000125 is below median point of plausible probabilities I call that an ass number.
Humorously, I can pose the same challenge to you, out of any given trillion observable universes, your range neglects the values of 1 to 1 trillion observable universes without life and instead only allows for 0.
Sharwood
Rich, doctor nephew
Or something more sinister? I hereby quote this as proof of the alien astronaut hypothesis.
The Fermi Paradox is a really valid argument against the proposal of a common alien life in the universe. The distances may be huge, but considering the time our solar system has been around and the number of extrasolar planets proposed, the lack of any evidence and artifacts from alien civilizations are puzzling! If they existed, someone SHOULD have visited earth by now! And if they have we SHOULD be able to see evidence of it.
Of course, astroarcheology is proposing that the evidence already exists, in ancient archeology and religion, but isn´t that a spit in the face to ancient man and the awesome accomplishments of their civilizations, like: "You were too primitive to be able to build something like that, so aliens must have helped you!"
If we really are all alone, I wonder what is the "point" of the rest of the universe? I guess only God knows...
Also, if we are indeed alone, I think it is our duty to try to spread life in universe. Millions of years from now, the ancestors of the life of earth may have spread over large distances in the Mily Way, and evolution would create unique lifeforms out of the common origin. Then the life of earth itself would have created the alien life.
Of course, astroarcheology is proposing that the evidence already exists, in ancient archeology and religion, but isn´t that a spit in the face to ancient man and the awesome accomplishments of their civilizations, like: "You were too primitive to be able to build something like that, so aliens must have helped you!"
If we really are all alone, I wonder what is the "point" of the rest of the universe? I guess only God knows...
Also, if we are indeed alone, I think it is our duty to try to spread life in universe. Millions of years from now, the ancestors of the life of earth may have spread over large distances in the Mily Way, and evolution would create unique lifeforms out of the common origin. Then the life of earth itself would have created the alien life.
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
Nonsense. We've been making ourselves known for what, 60 years now. If we'd be detected it would probably be by the radiowaves we send out. In 60 years those waves have only just travelled a tiny distance from our planet, with regard to the size of our galaxy. Even if by chance those waves would alert any alien right now, it would mean they would be very close by in galactic terms, but an 'answer' would take 60 years to travel back. That could imply that intelligent alien life is more than just common. If one assumes that on average every galaxy has 1 intelligent lifeform, that would mean 100 billion intelligent lifeforms in out universe. The Fermi Paradox not only assumes there are many, many more. Thousands per galaxy even, it makes a whole lot of other assumptions. Why assume that aliens feel the need to go exploring into space or feel the need to reach out? Why assume that aliens do know how to break the light speed barrier?
And when you judge the time involved, it really gets mind boggling. Why assume that alien civilisations will be around for millions of years, when our own society has been around for just a couple of thousands? One big asteroid and we're toast.
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