How will Obama or McCain impact the 2010 elections?

[The Tollan]

I have been wondering how the victory of either a Dem or Rep will affect the 2010 Congressional elections.

If McCain wins will the Repubs have a harder time recovering in 2010 or not?

If Obama wins will the Dems be helped in 2010 or will voters not be as inclined to give the Dems all of Congress with an Obaman presidency?

Will it be a less Dem Congress with Obama and a more Dem Congress with McCain or is the opposite true?

Since this is speculation and there are many unknowns (performance of the candidates in office, circumstances, etc) this may be hard to predict. Still, these elections will be interesting to see as they will be following the 2008 electoral extravaganza/bloodbath and be the first of the next "era."

In the internet age political winds can change rapidly. But will some of the old patterns still have some hold? Is this question so unknowable right now that it cannot be answered with any degree of accuracy?

I did not want to go too off topic on my other thread so I made this one.

 

[JollyRoger]

I think that either will have tough midterm elections and lose seats. McCain may have an easier time, since the Dems will likely have majorities, but if McCain is still waiting for his 100 of years of peaceful occupation of Iraq to kick off and the Republicans in Congress are backing him on it, I could see losses.

 

[Joker85]

I think that either will have tough midterm elections and lose seats. McCain may have an easier time, since the Dems will likely have majorities, but if McCain is still waiting for his 100 of years of peaceful occupation of Iraq to kick off and the Republicans in Congress are backing him on it, I could see losses.

Of course the opposite could happen with Obama. The American public is fickle, 80% supported the invasion now they act like they were against it all along. If Obama is elected and pulls out of Iraq and we start seeing chaos and carnage that makes 06 look like mission accomplished he could very well get the blame. I would laugh watching people switch again back to "I TOLD YOU WE SHOULD HAVE STAYED THERE LOOK AT THIS MESS NOW"

 

[zjl56]

I don't know about people focusing so much on the carnage after the war. We seem to only care about something that involves American lives, just look at the way we bailed on South Vietnam.

 

[downtown]

Its really pretty impossible to tell from this point.

Historically, the president's party usually lose some seats during his first midterm election

 

[El_Machinae]

Obama has a LOT of bad news to give to the American people. If he can get people to understand his gameplan towards solutions, then he'll do fine. I'm pretty sure he can explain himself well, but I don't think that some people are very good at listening.

 

[emzie]

Its really pretty impossible to tell from this point.

Historically, the president's party usually lose some seats during his first midterm election

The Senate is easier to look ahead to...

In 2010:

Chuck Grassley (R) Iowa
Judd Gregg (R) of New Hampshire
Richard Burr (R) of North Carolina
Kit Bond (R) of Missouri
Arlen Specter (R) of Pennsylvania

are all up for reelection. I don't know how popular any of these Senators are in their respective states (other than Specter, anyway) but each state is trending D. Harry Reid could get his 60.

The House is going to stay D for a while regardless, imho.