This round of AI bubble is the same as previous round. Watched two such cycles before and I am not bothering to waste time with this one. I understand you have a different opinion. But even so, if you talk of litography as a tech some countries are 5 years ahead, China is catching up very fast. If it can be done it will be done (replicated), the thing that sometimes delays technologies for years is figuring out that that it
can be done - lacking that there's a lack of will to work on it.
Taiwan is geopolitically relevant for its geographical position, not its semiconductor industry. They have valuable know how but it can be done elsewhere. Long term - geopolitics is a long-term game - these things come and go, industries in country X or Y. Technology is easier to change that geography or politics. It's no accident that field is called geopolitics
The US had been deindustrializing in a number of areas due to its internal politics, not due to lack of resources or technology. Which is why I'm saying that trend isn't going to reverse anytime soon -
politics. And this deindustrialization affected its military capacities, which were never as mighty as the propaganda depicted anyway.
Are you however under the delusion that the US could even
invade Iran? It can't. And therefore it cannot destroy is current government, or military. The US tried bombing only in several countries, notably North Vietnam, and failed. The US tried partial invasions in Iraq (1992) and Syria (ongoing) , and failed to dislodge their goverments.
Iran cannot be invaded by the US because the US has no safe staging ground to lauch an invasion from. The military presence it retains in northern Iraq is extremely vulnerable and without either good lines of supply (would have to depend on a hostile Turkey, much like in Afghanistan it depended on a hostile Pakistan) or even a route to flee if things escalate to war. Those soldiers would be wiped out fast in a real regional war involving Iran.
To invade Iran the US would have to first re-invade Iraq fully, overthrow its government and impose a military occupation. To make it a sate staging ground it would have to garrison it with over a million troops (very hostile population, plenty of small arms and porous borders), required to stay put there in garrission duty. In addition to that it would have to gather
at least a couple of million more for attacking Iran while guarding against counter attacks and flanking moves (check the Iran-Iraq war).
That is not happening.
Those armies do not exist and will never exist. It would require a social effort comparatively greated that the Korean War. There is a reason why the PNAC maniacs didn't proceed with their plan, from attacking Iraq to attacking Iran: it would be suicidal, result in total defeat. And that was in a time when the technical edge did favour the US, and it had a greater number of available forces, greated influence worldwide, and a more gung-ho domestic public. And hadn't deindustrailized so much and let the skilled personel retire and die yet.
The US currently has officials admitting that they
no longer know how to maintain the only ICBM the have in service. There are SLBM but what kind of state, and military industry, loses track of those skills? The super-duper F35 planes have to spend more time in maintenance than in the air. It has a military not fit for a serious war, for 20 years trained and used to bombing already wrecked countries. That is why this "retaliation", which is a political show for Biden's benefit, was done on iraquis and syrians. Not on Iran. Iran
can escalate, can wipe out those isolated bases in Iraq and Syria, and indeed perhaps some of the naval assets that happen to be close to its shores. Can interdict the Gulf to the US navy and expell it from its bases there. Then what? The US attempts some bombing sorties from afar into iranian territory? Is anyone under the delusion that the US play in Ukraine ("we are not beliligerents we are just providing weapons") would not be answered in exactly the same way in such a war: Iran will have available whatever AD systems the russians can spare and they build A LOT of that.
End game the US cannot even bomb Iran and is forced to run away from any place within missile range of Iran. Iran's missiles cover the Middle East. A war with Iran ends in strategic,
and military, US defeat in the Middle East. Imo people in the pentagon know it even in people in the capitol do not. And must have been having a hard time explaining that to the chickenhawks over these last few days.
Now, the iranians are not stupid. They know all this but they also know that time alone will see the US out of the Middle East. A war will still be damaging, as the Iran-Iraq war was even though Iran won (sucessfully defended and left Iraq weakened, leading to Kuwait and all that). Iran will not escalate and start this full blown war unless it has to - it is directly attacked.
Ultimately I'm trusting that sane people in both governments will prevail and this war won't happen.
