What I've never understood is why the other European countries seem to be less afraid of a nuclear Iran than the USA is. I understand Israel's concern, it pays to be wary. But I'd expect a ring of similarly concerned countries within the fallout radius.
EU countries will not be happy at all with a nuclear Iran.
That's why they made that agreement with the US and Iran before Trump blew it up.
The EU favors in general the carrot over the stick. And the EU stick is very small as well.
But first some context:
Although it is now along time ago...
Let's not forget how Russia and the US squashed France and the UK in the Suez crisis when these countries intervened in Egypt for commercial protection of the Suez canal.
Let's not forget how the US pressured the old western empires to give up their colonies, whether there would be a stable government lined up there or not.
Let's not forget that in domestic politics of former European countries many people did not want intervening in former colonies with military power because of that colonial abuse of the past.
And in general, because of all the wars on European soil, almost like Civil wars of "Europe" there is in general a much higher war weariness among the population than in for example the US (only 1 Civil war a long time ago). than in for example the UK (how many centuries ago had the UK a war on its own soil ? and those few bombings of WW2 are peanuts compared to what happened on mainland Europe).
Now.. we do live many decades later
but
say that Germany, 10 years after the fall of the wall, integration East-Germany up and running, would have put on the agenda in 2000 to build up a real German army again.... lots of surplus available public money to start up a military industry... it would boost the economy as well.
How many fearmongering articles would be there in the international newsmedia on the Krauts, the Nazis, reviving ?
Trump is forcing the issue now:
"Follow me and I decide what and how"
Ohh and BTW that agreement of that former POTUS you made with Iran and theUS does not have any value.
Ohh and BTW when I change tack again... and again... as with North Korea... because of personal political interests.... just follow me blindly.
That does not leave much room for an EU policy on Iran worthwhile to develop.
El_Machinae... my guess is that you (and I) get an answer on your question when Trump would be re-elected.
Just like with Brexit... in case that referendum would decide to exit... the EU will, I guess, have written down a full scenario with branches in case Trump is re-elected.
Not because they like it, but because they have to.
It will be a lose-lose for US-EU