Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Arakhor]

A phone poll of 1000 UK adults conducted for Radio 5 last week found, amongst others, that 61% of people agreed that referenda should not be used for major political decisions like these.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Edward, you can't create an internal border with Ireland because, by definition, an internal border is within the country. As really said, the least damning explanation is that it's simply poor choice of words.

Edward already said as much...

 

[Manfred Belheim]

A phone poll of 1000 UK adults conducted for Radio 5 last week found, amongst others, that 61% of people agreed that referenda should not be used for major political decisions like these.

We should have a referendum on that then. Bit late now of course.

 

[Arakhor]

We should have a referendum on that then. Bit late now of course.

There are lots of things that are a "bit late now". Maybe Alcuin of York really was onto something after all.

 

[Takhisis]

A phone poll of 1000 UK adults conducted for Radio 5 last week found, amongst others, that 61% of people agreed that referenda should not be used for major political decisions like these.

Leaving decisions such as these in the hands of Parliament would be extremely dangerous. It was they who started this game of Russian roulette in the first place.

Edward already said as much...

His post was a bit equivocal.

 

[Arakhor]

I didn't say that that was a particularly good idea, but we do actually elect our MPs to allegedly make these sorts of decisions.

 

[Takhisis]

I thought MPs were elected to keep things more or less the way they are and let the civil servants do their jobs.

 

[innonimatu]

I didn't say that that was a particularly good idea, but we do actually elect our MPs to allegedly make these sorts of decisions.

Your MPs seem to be quite busy feuding about party leadership and whether or not they'll retain their positions in Parliament through control of the party bureaucracy. Are you sure you want to rely only on them do do all decisions and rule out referenda in the future?

Perhaps before doing that the british people should invest more of their attention on improving the national political system, rather than expecting salvation from some external party (the EU).

 

[Takhisis]

But they just have!

*faradge.jpg*

 

[Arakhor]

Your MPs seem to be quite busy feuding about party leadership and whether or not they'll retain their positions in Parliament through control of the party bureaucracy. Are you sure you want to rely only on them do do all decisions and rule out referenda in the future?

Of course I'm not sure. but the tumult of the crowd and all that...

Perhaps before doing that the british people should invest more of their attention on improving the national political system, rather than expecting salvation from some external party (the EU).

Well, that's not going to happen, is it? The last referendum we had threw out AV and that was the only step we've ever had in that direction.

 

[Silurian]

Seems like Theresa May said that the government will not trigger the article 50 this year. Who would have guessed ?

So I suppose we'll have people continuing to blame the EU for the screw-up of the UK (by somehow claiming it's the EU preventing the UK to leave).
If only the EU could decide to vote for a rule allowing to kick a member out and then gives the UK the boot, this farce could maybe be over one day.

The UK will leave the EU two years after article 50 is triggered.
The EU will start negotiations when the UK triggers article 50.

But when will the negotiations end.

I assume that the result of the negotiations will have to be agreed by all the remaining EU states individually.

What is to stop an individual EU state, say France, for internal reasons to say that they are concerned about the slow start by the UK in the negotiations. But they understand that the UK is still deciding what it wants and so the UK should have a few more months to decide its position but France expects negotiations to be completed by 1st December 2018.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

His post was a bit equivocal.

Err...

However several posters here have delberately chosen to take unlikely worst possible interpretations, rather than more reasonably argue his answers were poorly worded.

The kindest explanation would be that he chose his wording poorly. Not what you would hope from the person negotiating but we are all human

As really said, the least damning explanation is that it's simply poor choice of words.

So yes. He already said as much.

 

[Takhisis]

Well, that's not going to happen, is it? The last referendum we had threw out AV and that was the only step we've ever had in that direction.

Some of the media insist on treating it as a victory of Groovy Dave's.

What is to stop an individual EU state, say France, for internal reasons to say that they are concerned about the slow start by the UK in the negotiations. But they understand that the UK is still deciding what it wants and so the UK should have a few more months to decide its position but France expects negotiations to be completed by 1st December 2018.

Of course they can say they are concerned about a slow start to negotiations. Why wouldn't they?

 

[Kyriakos]

The UK will leave the EU two years after article 50 is triggered.
The EU will start negotiations when the UK triggers article 50.

But when will the negotiations end.

I assume that the result of the negotiations will have to be agreed by all the remaining EU states individually.

What is to stop an individual EU state, say France, for internal reasons to say that they are concerned about the slow start by the UK in the negotiations. But they understand that the UK is still deciding what it wants and so the UK should have a few more months to decide its position but France expects negotiations to be completed by 1st December 2018.

Obviously the whole of the EU has to decide. That means both Germany and France.

 

[ori]

actually the article 50 negotiations end either after 2 years with no agreement - or prior to that with consent of the EU parliament and a qualified majority (55 % of EU members representing 65% of the population) - its not necessary for example for Germany to agree if pretty much all others are in agreement. France and Germany are just at the threshold of being able to block anything if they are in agreement against everyone else (~140 million population out of ~430 million) in an EUminusUK. So depending on the population numbers used its might be possible to pass without France and Germany in theory (as 4 opposed are also required to block anything) but that is theory. What is quite well possible is to have either France or Germany approve and the other not.

 

[EnglishEdward]

So yes. He already said as much.

Manfred, thank you for picking up on this.


Really, If I recall correctly Eire joined the EEC at the same time (end of 1972/
start of 1973) as the UK joined the EEC and that one of the many reasons for Eire
joining then was that the UK was a major trading partner of Eire and that joining at
the same time would minimise change and risk of disruption, so I understand why
our decision to vote Leave has not gone down well with people in the Republic.
That must be particularly galling as Eire gave up neutrality when EC became EU.

 

[EnglishEdward]

actually the article 50 negotiations end either after 2 years with no agreement - or prior to that with consent of the EU parliament and a qualified majority (55 % of EU members representing 65% of the population) - its not necessary for example for Germany to agree if pretty much all others are in agreement. France and Germany are just at the threshold of being able to block anything if they are in agreement against everyone else (~140 million population out of ~430 million) in an EUminusUK. So depending on the population numbers used its might be possible to pass without France and Germany in theory (as 4 opposed are also required to block anything) but that is theory. What is quite well possible is to have either France or Germany approve and the other not.

I do not disagree, but like to read the manual.

According to:

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/th.../title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

I have bolded the critical path that would apply in the absence of any agreement.

 

[ori]

Yeah, as I said the negotiations end after two years* - simply because the leaving party then leaves without a treaty (and any treaty negotiated afterwards would no longer fall under Article 50 - which then would make acceptance likely dependent on ratification by all remaining members). If a treaty is agreed upon beforehand then that treaty is merely dependent on a qualified majority - which in theory at least would make getting one easier than lateron.

*unless that time is unanimously extended.

 

[HAND]

A phone poll of 1000 UK adults conducted for Radio 5 last week found, amongst others, that 61% of people agreed that referenda should not be used for major political decisions like these.

That's a contradiction or hypocritical in itself though. A poll of the population says that a poll of the population shouldn't be allowed to make a significant decision.

I've just been reading the Guardian/Observer.. Theresa May maybe getting better concessions from the EU than David Cameron:

Brexit: EU considers migration ‘emergency brake’ for UK for up to seven years

Diplomats working on deal to give Theresa May greater concessions than those won by David Cameron, despite French doubts

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brexit-deal-free-movement-exemption-seven-years

 

[dutchfire]

The future is now: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/dover-port-delays-uk-home-office-reinforcements

Dover delays force UK Home Office to send in reinforcements

British officials drafted in to work with French border police after ‘extraordinary disruption’ caused by security checks

...

The Sikh relief organisation, Khalsa Aid, which supplies aid to refugees in makeshift camps, found itself helping motorists. The organisation was given a blue light escort to distribute 5,800 bottles of water and cereal bars to those stranded.

Aid worker Ravi Singh organised the drop after seeing images of the traffic on social media. He told Sky News the organisation normally works in the refugees camps where there is no water. He said: “And this is Britain, and I think the government should really have prepared for this, especially on a day like this, on a hot day, to provide some sort of reassurance if this happens there is a plan B.”