Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Arakhor]

A slightly lower pound is actually a good thing for British competitiveness...

That does seem to be a popular apologetic for why the crash in the pound in the last six months is actually a good thing, but there's nothing 'slight' about its loss of value and the one-third rise in inflation over the winter is huge.

And the UK government would not mess about, it would very quickly block all French/German/Italian cars/wine etc from entering the UK.

What it is this fantasy? Why do Brexit-lovers seem to have this bizarre idea that the UK is this plucky underdog being picked on by the evil EU? (That sentiment, if not those words.)

Is the combined EU stance really going to be that if the UK peaceably and democratcally exercises its rights under Article 50 to leave the EU, that it will declare a trade war?

To democratically do anything, there would need to be a vote or something like that, you know the very thing that the Government is trying furiously to avoid?

 

[Gigaz]

I know how customs officials work.

With respect to Poland and other Slavic countries. If there is a trade war, they lose the money the
guest workers in the UK are sending back. They therefore have an incentive not to initiate a trade war.

There may well be no deal because no deal can be brokered that is acceptable to all.

But having no deal, does not mean the EU must misinterpret customs procedures to start a trade war.

Do you think that Theresa May will support a trade deal that leaves the immigration from eastern EU countries essentially where it is? That seems implausible to me, from what I have heard. Therefore, the Slavic countries lose either way.

 

[JohannaK]

Thank you for your concern.

There are vinyards in England, and in California, Chile, Australia, South Africa.

Besides which wine is simply not essential and it is largely the liberal elite (the pro Remain) who enjoy wine.

The rest of us can manage on beer and whisky.

In all seriousness, we would be impacted more if India stopped exporting tea.

Wow. Seriously, your response to an admittedly poor attempt at a joke is "The liberal elite"? Just how much of the cool-aid have you had?

If I were to actually address you point, I'd say you're saying that the WTO option could only go wrong if customs officials do their job. So you are arguing that it is an option because the EU won't enforce its own rules?

 

[EnglishEdward]

What it is this fantasy? Why do Brexit-lovers seem to have this bizarre idea that the UK is this plucky underdog being picked on by the evil EU? (That sentiment, if not those words.)

That is not my sentiment.

The thing with the recent free trade agreements was that they are hard to negotiate, and that large countries rarely compromise. So Britain will always be in the Take it or leave it situation.

Although Gigaz's reply implies that the UK is the weaker party e.g. what may considered the underdog in negotiations.

To democratically do anything, there would need to be a vote or something like that, you know the very thing that the Government is trying furiously to avoid?

There was a vote on 23 June 2016.

 

[AdrienIer]

I'm starting to think that it would be better for everyone if there was no real negotiations. If the final deal is too advantageous to the UK the EU will have lost quite a lot in the brexit, and the UK is apparently not going to accept any important deal that is not absurdly advantageous to it. The best the EU could do is sign a few minor treaties so as to avoid complete hostility with the UK (like accepting that current UK nationals living in the EU can stay there without doing paperwork if there is full reciprocity). Basically thanks for the last 40 years, bye, we have a continent to manage, please leave us alone now we won't return your calls.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I'm starting to think that it would be better for everyone if there was no real negotiations. If the final deal is too advantageous to the UK the EU will have lost quite a lot in the brexit, and the UK is apparently not going to accept any important deal that is not absurdly advantageous to it. The best the EU could do is sign a few minor treaties so as to avoid complete hostility with the UK (like accepting that current UK nationals living in the EU can stay there without doing paperwork if there is full reciprocity). Basically thanks for the last 40 years, bye, we have a continent to manage, please leave us alone now we won't return your calls.

Quite so. I do not believe in the all encompassing big deal. A separate deal or treaty as you put it for each topic would be best.

 

[Arakhor]

There was a vote on 23 June 2016.

Yes, but I don't recall there being an option about leaving the single market, the customs union or anything else. What's more, it would be a dramatically sad state of affairs if the people have a greater say in the issue than our elected MPs. If the Government is so certain about their course (which we all know is not true, anyway), they should put the matter to Parliament and stop wasting money on an appeal that by all rights they will lose.

 

[really]

Quite so. I do not believe in the all encompassing big deal. A separate deal or treaty as you put it for each topic would be best.

The Swiss option. I haven't heard any clamouring for this on the EU side.

 

[Arakhor]

Quite so. I do not believe in the all encompassing big deal. A separate deal or treaty as you put it for each topic would be best.

That would probably be easier and avoid the Government with massive egg on its face when its absurd ideas get nowhere, but I imagine that it will also take much, much longer.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The Swiss option. I haven't heard any clamouring for this on the EU side.

The current EU line seems to be that unless the UK guarantees to the continuing unlimited
unrestricted movement of peoples e.g. the de facto colonisation of the UK, no deals are possible.

If they hold to that line, the UK will look to pragmatic arrangements with individual member states.

The Swiss people have the misfortune to be surrounded by the EU so have less choice.

 

[Arakhor]

The current EU line seems to be that unless the UK guarantees to the continuing unlimited unrestricted movement of peoples e.g. the de facto colonisation of the UK, no deals are possible.

It's good that no one has suggested recolonising the UK then, so all deals should be possible.

 

[EvaDK]

The Swiss option. I haven't heard any clamouring for this on the EU side.

Switzerland has practiced free movement of citizens with the EU for many years now. So has Norway. The Norwegian Parliament implements EU laws and regulations on a regular basis, as they are implemented by the EU member states. Despite not being a part of the EU.

 

[Takhisis]

Mostly it is I think you are being deliberately obtuse. For instance, our current line of discussion started with why the ECJ should not have authority over a post Brexit UK. which I said that is how it should be. You then questioned why a nonEU member shouldn't remain subordinate to a foreign court which is often hostile and not responsive to the will of the British people.

Now you are back to pretending the Brexit vote never happened so, yes, I am wondering if you are being obtuse or simply arguing in bad faith.

It is absolutely clear that a UK which is not a member of the EU should not be bound by a foreign court. It shall have its own court system which shall have sole power to review the laws of the UK.

Given that you claim that I said things I did not say, I think the one arguing in bad faith is you.

Essentially, Britain wants everything it already has, without any commitments or oversight, yet somehow the EU is the bad guy for not compromising?

Yes! That's exactly the sentiment of today's speech.

Nope, they do want free trade but you can shove the rest. Which is all the UK ever wanted anyway.

Which part of it?

Show me someone who claims free trade cannot happen without political union and I will show you either a fool or a liar. Free trade just means free trade and nothing else.

Oh, look, another instance of you claiming that posters say things they haven't and attacking that position. Men are made of straw.

It's good that no one has suggested recolonising the UK then, so all deals should be possible.

Colonisation? It's not as if immigrants already learned English in their home countries while people in the UK generally don't?

 

[Arakhor]

Well, if we're discussing what the electorate really wants, it's free trade with Europe, but the PM has decided in her wisdom that we're not going to have that, because she's totally unwilling to compromise. If anyone is starting a potential trade war, it doesn't look like it'll be that amorphous EU bloc, which totally isn't made up of 27 other nations and always thinks in robotic lock-step.

As Tim Farron said recently, it doesn't matter who you are, the PM has likely just hung you out to dry.

 

[EvaDK]

This sums up May's speech pretty good, me thinks.

Spoiler :

 

[Arakhor]

This popped up in my Twitter digest email today. I don't know why, given that I barely even go to Twitter and I leave my political wrangling for this forum, but hey. It's almost as if Theresa May decided to put her career ahead of her principles or indeed her own country.

 

[Arakhor]

In similar images from today, it seems that Mrs May just can't stop lying, but then I guess that since that poor cat from years back worked out so well for her...

 

[FriendlyFire]

The current EU line seems to be that unless the UK guarantees to the continuing unlimited
unrestricted movement of peoples e.g. the de facto colonisation of the UK, no deals are possible.

If they hold to that line, the UK will look to pragmatic arrangements with individual member states.

The Swiss people have the misfortune to be surrounded by the EU so have less choice.

SWEXIT is fine*
*Just dont read any "facts" and ignor "reality"

This is hilarous, because the UK was given an emergany break halting immigration and with no treaty in place for the Swiss Bank this Febuary approaching cut off date fast approaching
the UK being larger will get a better deal, but how many concessions UK have to give to get immigration control it wants.

I suggest next time the UK actually dose what the EU asked for which was curb immigration from Poland for 7 years, But you opted out and so with only 2 EU countries open to them. Well the Poles all went to the UK. An amergancy break for the UK wouldnt be a bad idea, let the UK set its immigration for 7 years so it can fix its own mistake. EU UK will probably have to bribe Poland with some euromonies Pounds but that shouldnt be too hard

Swiss route poses a challenge for Brexit UK
EU agreements may be difficult for Bern to maintain and even harder for London to follow

While Europe’s leaders scramble to deal with the UK, Swiss politicians are frantically seeking ways to preserve a web of trade and other agreements while implementing the outcome of a referendum that has caused problems of its own. In February 2014 the Swiss voted narrowly for quotas on EU immigration — in direct contradiction with the EU’s cherished principle of the free movement of people across the continent.

But with Switzerland formally abandoning its goal to join the EU, Brussels has refused to deepen ties any further until the country has signed up to a broader deal to adopt EU rules as they evolve. Swiss voters would almost certainly reject any agreement to obey rulings of the European Court of Justice — also one of Brexiters’ chief causes of complaint.

To the dismay of Swiss banks, talks have been shelved on a financial services agreement.

the timing of the UK vote was bad for Switzerland. A three-year deadline for implementing the 2014 referendum result expires next February.

Swiss officials are working on compromise solutions, such as introducing an “emergency brake” procedure to halt immigration if the country becomes overwhelmed.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4c7f5a0-4288-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d

 

[innonimatu]

When will the leave people start making sense ? Half of the UK exports go to the EU. How much of the EU exports go to the UK ? I can't find the number anywhere but it's certainly not 50%. So the exporting companies of the UK have to (on average) find new exporting countries for half of their production, while the EU ones will only have to find new partners for a quarter/decile/whatever the percentage is of their production. The relative loss will be much worse for the UK so no, the EU companies won't be begging for the EU to make a deal with the UK : the UK companies will be begging for the UK to make a deal (much worse than the current one) with the EU.

As pretty much everyone on the EU side has said, the EU economy will take a hit but the UK economy will take a MUCH bigger hit.

And how did that "we'll harm them more than they can harm us" work with the "sanctions on Russia" thing, pray tell?

where are you gonna get your wine if not from Europe? California? Is it really worth it?

From the countries that would leave the EU rather than play along with the "embargo of the year for the sake of the franco-german master plan"? Even the french are starting to get that the rope will break on their side if they keep pulling... the germans won't, though.

 

[FriendlyFire]

And how did that "we'll harm them more than they can harm us" work with the "sanctions on Russia" thing, pray tell?

Russia Stronk !
The sanctions were quite limited, military, financial and travel bans. Russia decided it would show the west who was boss and ended up with economic crisis when oil prices plummeted. Poor Bulgaria and Ukraine ended up bearing the blunt of economic pain.
The EU as a whole suffered less then Russia overall. (poor Bulgaria)

Russia’s economy is roughly the size of Italy or Canada, and is dependent on oil revenues to stay afloat, said Thoburn. Western countries, including the United States, placed sanctions on Russia when it annexed Crimea, and intervened in Ukraine and Syria. At about the same time, Russia — one of the world’s top two oil producers — saw oil prices plummet from a high of $100 per barrel to about $40 per barrel. Despite a slight improvement in oil prices these days, Russia’s economy took a beating and it is still working to climb out of a recession.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/how-strong-is-russia-now/