Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[AdrienIer]

Also, what does that mean for all the commonwealth countries ? Are they sovereign states ? Or are they oppressed provinces of the dying British empire ?

Only a sith deals in absolutes

 

[Takhisis]

Gross-Herzog, dammit, prince, Duke, it's all the same.

 

[innonimatu]

So, by your logic, King Philippe of Belgium, King Harald of Denmark, King Carl Gustaf of Sweden, King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands and King Felipe of Spain are also no longer monarchs of their respective countries. Has anyone told them?

Can you point out where have I said that the UK is no longer - now - a sovereign country?

What is at stake is the future of the UK. That is why you guys are having a referendum: you can still choose, obviously you are still sovereign. The important word here being still.

 

[Arakhor]

That's usually one of the rallying calls for Leavers - "the UK is no longer a sovereign country!" (Add optional crying.) The UK is also specifically exempted from the phantom "ever-closer union" that other Leavers go on about, which I'm sure you have talked about.

If anyone is going to be presiding over the death of the kingdom, don't you think that would be the King of Belgium? The UK is more likely to see an independent Scotland than a united Republic of Europe and I think it unlikely that either will be in the Queen's lifetime.

 

[HAND]

That's usually one of the rallying calls for Leavers - "the UK is no longer a sovereign country!" (Add optional crying.) The UK is also specifically exempted from the phantom "ever-closer union" that other Leavers go on about, which I'm sure you have talked about.

If anyone is going to be presiding over the death of the kingdom, don't you think that would be the King of Belgium? The UK is more likely to see an independent Scotland than a united Republic of Europe and I think it unlikely that either will be in the Queen's lifetime.

By your phantom "ever-closer union" point, you're implying that it's imaginary? I'm not convinced that the concessions that Cameron won, will stand the test of time.

If the the UK votes to remain, it's not going to stop this march to ever closer union within the EU. The main issues for the EU are the Eurozone crisis and the migrant crisis and they will act to address these.. and the UK based concerns on any outcomes to these issues will be sidelined.

I'm willing to bet a significant number of remain voters really believe they are just voting for the status quo and the EU is just a trading block. I can imagine the howls from some remain voters in the following weeks/months/years after a remain vote when promises are broken and/or new proposals that are against the UK interest are approved.

The bottom line is the EU will find a way to get what it wants, probably by out flanking and rendering previous promises irrelevant with new legislation and treaties.

 

[Arakhor]

I'm sure that the EU will change, maybe for the worse, but the same can be said for all countries or polities. Unless "we" are suggesting that future leaders abstain from all those awkward political compromises they're so good at, a United States of Europe will not magically spring into being, simply because some people hate the idea enough.

 

[Akka]

This whole debacle has at least the side-effect of providing amusing black ironies. Seeing Cameron have all his long-time EU-dissing excuses ("it's not because of what we did, it's because the EU !") explode in its face has definite comedic value.

The gloomy doom predictions from both sides are also facepalmesques. It'd be a sad day for the world if one of its best peace-bringing organisation break down, but on the short term, not that much would change with a Brexit, for both UK and the EU.

And finally, there is potential humour in the future if the rabid Brexiters manage to realize afterward that not a lot has changed and that most of what they were blaming the EU about was just business as usual that wouldn't change afterward.

About the only actual concrete thing that this might end up bringing, is finally forcing all countries to have a real discussion about immigration. That one has been waiting in the sideline for 25 years now, and it's probably the real challenge that the EU faces, much more decisive than the financial crisis.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Sacre Bleu! The French appear to be more Eurosceptic than us.

Not content with being better than us at football, they now appear to be out-doing us at eu bashing. How dare they!

That’s according to a new survey just out – and it appears the Germans are just as Eurosceptic as us!
Only the Greeks outdo us all (for good reason of course).

France shuns Europe as Brexit revolt spreads

France has turned even more viscerally eurosceptic than Britain over recent months, profoundly altering the political geography of Europe and making it impossible to judge how Paris might respond to Brexit.
An intractable economic crisis has been eating away at the legitimacy of the French governing elites for much of this decade. This has now combined with a collapse in the credibility of the government, and mounting anger over immigration.
A pan-European survey by the Pew Research Center released today found that 61pc of French voters have an “unfavourable” view, compared to 48pc in the UK.
A clear majority is opposed to “ever closer union” and wants powers returned to the French parliament, a finding that sits badly with the insistence by President Francois Hollande that “more Europe” is the answer to the EU’s woes.
“It is a protest against the elites,” said Professor Brigitte Granville, a French economist at Queen Mary University of London. “There are 5000 people in charge of everything in France. They are all linked by school and marriage, and they are tight.”
Prof Granville said the mechanisms of monetary union have upset the Franco-German strategic marriage, wounding the French psyche. “The EU was sold to the French people as a `partnership’ of equals with Germany. But it has been very clear since 2010 that this is not the case. Everybody could see that Germany decided everything in Greece,” she said.
The death of the Monnet dream in the EU’s anchor state poses an existential threat to the European project and is running in parallel to what is happening in Britain.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/

 

[FriendlyFire]

Only the Greeks outdo us all (for good reason of course).

Reminds me instantly of this chart
Given the number of crisis and how slow the EU has been to deal with them, it dosnt surprise me that support for the Union had been declining

 

[AdrienIer]

Sacre Bleu! The French appear to be more Eurosceptic than us.

Not content with being better than us at football, they now appear to be out-doing us at eu bashing. How dare they!

That’s according to a new survey just out – and it appears the Germans are just as Eurosceptic as us!
Only the Greeks outdo us all (for good reason of course).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/

Having an unfavorable view of the EU is different from wanting to leave it. A lot of people here are much more left winged than what you could find in the UK and they have a Corbyn-esque view of it : the EU is too liberal economically but we need to change it not leave it

 

[EnglishEdward]

They do, but the bookies still don't. My money's on them.

I am unclear whether the opinion polls are factoring in the impacts of:

(a) UK citizens currently resident in other EU countries;

and

(b) of foreign nationals currently resident in the UK who have acquired
the right to vote in the EU referendum.

These groupings are likely to vote Remain by a significant margin and thus overturn
any narrow majority (if there is one) of UK nationals residents in the UK voting Leave.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Also, what does that mean for all the commonwealth countries ? Are they sovereign states ? Or are they oppressed provinces of the dying British empire ?:

British empire is long dead, RIP.

Well IIRC those members of the Commonwealth of Independent States
do what Vladimir Putin tells them to do.

If you are talking about what used to be known as the British Commonwealth
(previously the British Empire); then nearly all of them (e.g. Canada, India)
are generally independent states, but some (e.g. Diego Garcia and Grenada)
are ruled by the USA.

 

[Kyriakos]

There are also the Malvinas islands

And the southernmost tip of Spain.

 

[Arakhor]

If you are talking about what used to be known as the British Commonwealth (previously the British Empire); then nearly all of them (e.g. Canada, India) are generally independent states, but some (e.g. Diego Garcia and Grenada) are ruled by the USA.

Uh, what? Grenada is one of the sixteen realms over which the Queen is head of state and whilst Diego Garcia does have a US military base there, it's a British Overseas Territory and not a US possession.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Uh, what? Grenada is one of the sixteen realms over which the Queen is head of state and whilst Diego Garcia does have a US military base there, it's a British Overseas Territory and not a US possession.

Not sure why you bother with such quibbling.

There is the constitutional formality and the reality.

President Ronald Reagan invaded Grenada and Diego Garcia
has been a US Air and Sea Base for most of my lifetime.

 

[EnglishEdward]

There are also the Malvinas islands

And the southernmost tip of Spain.

It was the decision of the Argentine and Spanish governments to
remain neutral and loosely aligned with Hitler that accounts for those.

 

[Arakhor]

Not sure why you bother with such quibbling.

Stating that Grenada is absolutely not ruled by the US and is in fact an independent state is considered quibbling? You must be an absolute hoot at debates.

 

[really]

John Major and Tony Blair spoke for remaining in Northern Ireland earlier today.

The leave campaign really has no answer on what would happen at the border.

I don't see how migration controls and the common travel area between the UK and Ireland can be reconciled.

A customs border would also have to be recreated at great cost to the economies on both sides.

 

[Takhisis]

Of course, Northern Ireland is still not part of England and Wales or Scotland, de iure, but its own little secluded corner of the world where you can hide people behind walls, fences and barbed wire. Frankly, anything happening there is likely to cause a ‘breach of the peace’.

 

[EnglishEdward]

John Major and Tony Blair spoke for remaining in Northern Ireland earlier today.

The leave campaign really has no answer on what would happen at the border.

I don't see how migration controls and the common travel area between the UK and Ireland can be reconciled.

A customs border would also have to be recreated at great cost to the economies on both sides.

IIRC there is already widespread cigarette smuggling, and countermeasures there.

Obtaining a small portion of the corporation tax on UK business that companies
dodge by being officially incorporated in Ireland would pay for improving that.

The real challenges to customs borders lie in cyberspace.