Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Mega Tsunami]

Yeah, here's the thing about the EU: You can't negotiate a trade treaty with Germany. You have to deal with the union. There are over two dozen countries that don't care how many German cars you buy. That's one of the main reasons why the German government doesn't want the UK to leave, but Germany doesn't decide alone.

Firstly it not just Germany that would want a deal - most others would too. Not just for trade, but for the movement of people (and their jobs).

Now I grant you Mrs M is a good diplomat, but if she says it happens then it happens.

She would, of course, put it much better than that.

 

[Arakhor]

The Leave camp seems to have at least two factions on this: the first says that we're fine out of Europe and we can trade with the US and other countries, so Europe can go screw itself, but the second says that no one can afford us not to trade with Europe, so nothing will change, even if we leave. They can't both be right at the same time.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I know it's crazy isn't it. Different people having differing opinions about what might happen in a fairly unpredictable situation. Who'd have thought it.

 

[Flying Pig]

It's a little crazier when the same people seem to have contradictory opinions on the same thing.

 

[Arakhor]

I know it's crazy isn't it. Different people having differing opinions about what might happen in a fairly unpredictable situation. Who'd have thought it.

But when it's Vote Leave's opinions that are apparently correct in any given situation, it is a bit more suspect, wouldn't you say?

 

[EnglishEdward]

The Leave camp seems to have at least two factions on this: the first says that we're fine out of Europe and we can trade with the US and other countries, so Europe can go screw itself, but the second says that no one can afford us not to trade with Europe, so nothing will change, even if we leave. They can't both be right at the same time.

It's a little crazier when the same people seem to have contradictory opinions on the same thing.

I know it's crazy isn't it. Different people having differing opinions about what might happen in a fairly unpredictable situation. Who'd have thought it.

That is a misunderstanding of the position.

There is no evidence that the Leave camp is obviously divided into factions on this.

An independent UK would have a range of options to deal with contingencies
(likely to arise from a range of possible EU attitudes; varying from pragmatic, to exploitive, to feeling jilted etc.) from:

For simplicity; I will list only three.

(a) Continuing trade with EU member states without quotas and tariffs

(b) Quotas and tariffs, and therefore reduced, trade with EU member states.

(c) Not trading with the EU and trading more with the rest of the world instead.


Most of us would prefer (a) to (b), but if the EU don't agree; we'd manage with (b)
and if the EU went into an embargo sulk, we could manage with (c) no EU trade.

I suspect that the outcome would likely be a mix of (a), (b) and (c); with
particular outcomes applying to different categories of goods and services.


After all what does the EU produce that the UK can not obtain from somewhere else?

 

[Arakhor]

To name just three things, French cheese, Belgian chocolate and Mediterranean wines.

 

[Flying Pig]

The problem is only being able to obtain those things more expensively. If you're getting the same thing for a higher price, that's self-evidently not good for anybody. If those things are raw materials, that has a knock-on effect to the finished goods that you make out of them. Moving to a less free and less efficient market inevitably means losing out either on quality or on price - that's a basic principle of economics. What that means is that the pound in your pocket doesn't go as far as it did before. That's not a good thing.

 

[AdrienIer]

After all what does the EU produce that the UK can not obtain from somewhere else?

If a UK company is using an EU product it's usually because it's cheaper or with a better quality than a non-EU equivalent. Not trading with the EU would mean exactly that : worst quality and/or more expensive things.
Note that it's not only true about this situation. If any country were to stop trading with any 30 odd countries including some of the world's biggest manufacturers, making for half of its imports, it's gonna have a hard time.

 

[Old Hippy]

are their any views on existing subsidies to agriculture on the Brexit

Farmers have voiced concerns that Brexit would prevent them having access to the single market and the Treasury would not match the £2.4bn of support they get through Europe, which accounts for an average 53% of farm incomes.

would conservative policies allow subsidies to be paid, they should be opposed to them, would they get new subsidies through the UK parliament , would people accept welfare payments to country squires out of their tax payments? would better uses be found for it?

an interested English expat

 

[EnglishEdward]

To name just three things, French cheese,
Belgian chocolate and Mediterranean wines.

(1) We can make our own cheese in England, I do not believe they cultivate cocoa bushes in Belgium, and we can get better wine from Australia, Chile, South Africa & USA.

(2) We could persuade someone in Ireland (sure 'really' has friends) to order it for us, for an appropriate middleman's fees.

If a UK company is using an EU product it's usually because it's cheaper or with a better quality than a non-EU equivalent. Not trading with the EU would mean exactly that : worst quality and/or more expensive things.
Note that it's not only true about this situation. If any country were to stop trading with any 30 odd countries including some of the world's biggest manufacturers, making for half of its imports, it's gonna have a hard time.

(3) Yes indeed, I agree that there would be an inflationary effect from a smaller sourcing base. However I have never said that freedom from EU rule would be free.


(4) For the very small proportion of goods where quality is absolutely critical; that would likely cause a temporary interruption while contingency measures are taken.
Such contingency measures include (a) setting up production in the UK, (b) having another global player raise their standards or (c) simply indirect ordering or smuggling.

Let us consider this: suppose for example a Danish manufactured wind turbine breaks down and a spare part is required: (i) we get a US customer to order the replacement (b) take the broken part, and reverse engineer a UK made component or (c) pay the Chinese to make one. German machine tool manufacturers are very good and often the world's best, but there are plenty of companies in Japan and the USA. French medical technology is very good, but would the French buy into embargoing that?

As above, all this is inflationary.

Point is Iran and South Africa survived embargos.

 

[Arakhor]

HAND's argument was that pulling out of Europe would be good for the economy; your position appears to be purely ideological and damn the economy.

 

[AdrienIer]

Point is Iran and South Africa survived embargos.

Iran recently voted for a president who ran on a platform of getting them off of the embargo. They survived, but the people were ready to make a lot of concessions in order to get out of it

 

[Mega Tsunami]

There might be some 20million(?) votes for Brexit. And I imagine there are 20million+ different points of view on what that might mean for them. We don’t know how things will pan out any more than Remainers know how things will pan out in the EU (whether we stay or go). What price freedom?

Talking of ‘what price freedom’ – this is what Tusk has to say today. Do we laugh or cry?
Tusk:
Brexit could threaten western political civilization, says EU's Tusk
In an interview with German newspaper Bild, Tusk said a so-called Brexit vote would provide a major boost to radical anti-European forces who he said would be "drinking champagne".
"Why is it so dangerous? Because no one can foresee what the long-term consequences would be," Tusk said. "As a historian I fear that Brexit could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also of western political civilization in its entirety."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-tusk-idUSKCN0YZ0Q9

Edit: (Don’t tell anyone, but these warnings are just beginning to get to me….)

 

[Akka]

(1) We can make our own cheese in England, I do not believe they cultivate cocoa bushes in Belgium, and we can get better wine from Australia, Chile, South Africa & USA.

It must really take an Englishman to have such a poor taste in food.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

It must really take an Englishman to have such a poor taste in food.

Oh yeah?

How British cheese took over the world (even the French love it)
British cheese used to have a bad reputation, but curd nerds all over the globe are now queuing up to buy imported Stinking Bishop and Colston Bassett Stilton

It used to be seen as the poor relation of the fromage world, but British cheese is now winning over curd nerds in New York, Madrid and (mon dieu!) even Paris.
UK cheese exports reached an all-time high in 2014, according to HMRC figures: a 7 per cent rise in volumes, with the premium end of the market performing particularly well. British cheese specialist Neal's Yard Dairy has seen overseas demand grow rapidly in recent years and today sends hundreds of tonnes of product made by small artisan producers to destinations including Spain, Belgium and Hong Kong, plus more than 200 customers in the US. But it is France where sales are growing fastest - up 20 per cent in the past year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodandd...k-over-the-world-even-the-French-love-it.html

Not to mention English sparkling wine out champaigning champaign…

 

[Mise]

I wasn't convinced about this whole Brexit thing but that Telegraph article on cheese makes some good arguments.

 

[EnglishEdward]

HAND's argument was that pulling out of Europe would be good for the economy; your position appears to be purely ideological and damn the economy.

I regard self determination as more of a practical rather than an ideological argument.

 

[Arakhor]

HAND's argument actually bore consideration; your argument that we should leave, even if it means an European embargo and an Irish black market, simply does not.

 

[Arwon]

"We'll survive" doesn't seem like a terribly inspiring argument for leaving the EU.