Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[GoodSarmatian]

The pro Leave leaflet posted through my front door had "up to £350m" for the NHS.

"Up to".
Nice weasely marketing platitude that only means "Definitely not more than 350m. Almost certainly significantly less. Possibly nothing at all."

 

[Snorrius]

... have about 0.01% approval rating in Russia.

It is just a matter of PR. Here is a template:

USSR used American help in times of crisis.
We have crisis now and could use some American help.
England is an old good land of gentlemen.
We might be better off to have a gentleman as a head of state for a change.

We could throw some inside joke as well:

Now we have a ruler who WORKS and UNDERSTANDS .

 

[EnglishEdward]

Those MP want to oust him before he can oust them. The results of this referendum provide the necessary argument for the party leadership to back different candidates in the next election. Which is likely to come sooner that previously expected.

The blairite wing could tolerate Corbyn as an opposition leader for a couple of years, waiting for him to suffer some setback and them getting rid of him. With the resignation of the government and the conflict among the Tories the likelihood of a general election is now high - meaning that Corbyn suddenly became a threat to these MP. The knives are out.

Innonimatu, you continue to astonish me. You have more insight
into UK politics than very nearly all the UK citizens who post here.

An early election is indeed quite likely.

For this the:

"I will implement Brexit" candidates

may be facing the:

"I will not be hasty on Brexit" candidates

and the campaign may only partially be on
traditional Conservative/Labour lines.

Jeremy Corbyn was always a strong euro-sceptic, and could only justify being
pro EU by saying he was in favour of a different EU, a pro-social justice EU .

Now he can say that the people have spoken, and suggest that local Labour
party members should only select "I will implement Brexit" candidates.

Rather than admit that being pro EU was a mistake, the inflexible
pro EU Blairites in their panic turn like Brutus upon Caesar.

The irony is that Jeremy Corbyn is being true to his old guru,
Tony Benn, while Hilary Benn betrays his father's beliefs.

 

[Verbose]

Voting is democracy in case you lot did not know that.

Yes, and?

Of all the democratic options, a referendum is probably the most brutal tool in the box. It makes very clear winners and losers, as if national politics needs that particularly. There are countries in Europe with scars lasting decades from things not disimilar to the present "Brexit" situation. (Clearly the British weren't aware.)

What's telling is how it tends to be brought out when none of the political parties wants/dares to make an issue the centerpiece of an ordinary parliamentary election process.

Instead we can get situation like the Brexit-confusion. Which even the winners now have second thoughts about.

 

[luiz]

It doesnt look so. Polls have been proved wrong again. PSOE is going up and Podemos down. Anyway we are in a similar situation like before.

And apparently PP got 10 seats more than last time... go figure. The pundits on El País are saying Podemos was punished for not being reasonable during coalition negotiations. I don't know what to make of anything.

 

[Birdjaguar]

It is just a matter of PR. Here is a template:

USSR used American help in times of crisis.
We have crisis now and could use some American help.
England is an old good land of gentlemen.
We might be better off to have a gentleman as a head of state for a change.

We could throw some inside joke as well:

Now we have a ruler who WORKS and UNDERSTANDS.

The campaign slogan could be: A free dash cam in every car!

 

[Snorrius]

Instead we can get situation like the Brexit-confusion. Which even the winners now have second thoughts about.

It is just fear of change.

 

[Akka]

Although I have selected Arwon's text as above, my comment applies to
all those who say the UK referendum on the EU should not have been held.

The contempt is not about the referendum being held, it's about it being held without any actual thoughts put into it.

It's obvious nobody had actual plan about what to do if "Leave" won. Which is pretty unbelievable.
Also it's obvious that nobody had actually thought about the actual, practical consequences of a "Leave", be it about treaties or what to negociate.
And finally it's not just obvious but even acknowledge, that the campaign was based on pure lies.

THAT is what is just unacceptable.

 

[EnglishEdward]

"Up to".
Nice weasely marketing platitude that only means "Definitely not more than 350m. Almost certainly significantly less. Possibly nothing at all."

No, I think some in the Leave camp realised that some of that £350m would be needed to replace lost EU funding.
But there were instances when the "up to" was lost. However I think that was when text was firmed up by those not
understanding or short of space. The point I am trying to make to In camp is that confusion over the £350m is not lying.

 

[gangleri2001]

What do you people think about the chances of domino effect? I think that it that case Denmark would be next. Big euroskeptic party, no euro (even though currency peg) and they only entered the EU because of the British. Lots of chances to be next in line IMO.

 

[Kyriakos]

Yes, and?

Of all the democratic options, a referendum is probably the most brutal tool in the box. It makes very clear winners and losers, as if national politics needs that particularly. There are countries in Europe with scars lasting decades from things not disimilar to the present "Brexit" situation. (Clearly the British weren't aware.)

What's telling is how it tends to be brought out when none of the political parties wants/dares to make an issue the centerpiece of an ordinary parliamentary election process.

Instead we can get situation like the Brexit-confusion. Which even the winners now have second thoughts about.

If anything, a referendum is far more democratic than just electing a party and then seeing if they actually implement anything they supposedly were elected to do. Cause if you vote in a referendum, the result stands.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

And apparently PP got 10 seats more than last time... go figure. The pundits on El País are saying Podemos was punished for not being reasonable during coalition negotiations. I don't know what to make of anything.

Those 10 seats more came from Ciudadanos, the other center-right new party which went down. So the landscape continues the same with no a clear way to pact a path to form government.

If anything it seems new parties are going down and old ones remain. Probably it can be explained on the low participation. Young people get bored and spent the whole day at the beach while oldies remained at home watching the Eurocup and went vote in the half-time, and of course voted for who they always vote for.

 

[red_elk]

You are probably right, but that begs the question of which situation would be an improvement for the majority of the Russian people.

When I'm choosing any kind of specialist for myself (doctor, lawyer, etc.), I'm estimating his/her professionalism and motivation. No, the fact that the man was born in America and raised in England doesn't make him a good candidate to lead our country. Rather the opposite.

 

[Kyriakos]

What do you people think about the chances of domino effect? I think that it that case Denmark would be next. Big euroskeptic party, no euro (even though currency peg) and they only entered the EU because of the British. Lots of chances to be next in line IMO.

There is a local gag i read on my FB feed: "In the end the only members of the EU will be us (Greece) and Germany"

 

[gangleri2001]

This refernedum was non-binding. If the people in Westminster were cynical enough (which it wouldn't be surprissing because we're talking about the English here) they could pretend that nothing happened if they wanted to. Of course they won't out of fear of political suicide for doing so, but technically it's still possible to ignore the referendum altogether.

 

[Kyriakos]

This refernedum was non-binding. If the people in Westminster were cynical enough (which it wouldn't be surprissing because we're talking about the English here) they could pretend that nothing happened if they wanted to. Of course they won't out of fear of political suicide for doing so, but technically it's still possible to ignore the referendum altogether.

Actually that is not the english style (at least in recent decades). They would never do a thing like overruling their own referendum.
And indeed doing so is very dangerous (let alone that in this case they would look more clownish, and even this Eu would not be able to alter its position, cause it is beyond bizarre already).

 

[EnglishEdward]

The contempt is not about the referendum being held, it's about it being held without any actual thoughts put into it.

Really, they have had 1 year since they were elected on the promise of Referendum.

I have had 40 years myself.

It's obvious nobody had actual plan about what to do if "Leave" won. Which is pretty unbelievable.

Well I, for one, believed they did not have an options plan, risk assessment etc.

I have never had the slightest doubt that none of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove
or Nigel Farage ever had anything like a transition plan. It is not in their background.

Also it's obvious that nobody had actually thought about the actual, practical consequences of a "Leave", be it about treaties or what to negociate.

I rather think the EU Commission civil servants have done their homework there.

And finally it's not just obvious but even acknowledge, that the campaign was based on pure lies.

I agree those in the In campaign told a lot of Lies.

 

[gangleri2001]

There is a local gag i read on my FB feed: "In the end the only members of the EU will be us (Greece) and Germany"

C'mon! Enjoy! You'll the to pay some unpayable debt! Isn't that your idea of fun?

As Blur said: Greeks who pay debt that won't pay 'cause they paid a Tsipras not to pay but that not what he said! Always should there be someone to be your creditor!

 

[Verbose]

If anything, a referendum is far more democratic than just electing a party and then seeing if they actually implement anything they supposedly were elected to do. Cause if you vote in a referendum, the result stands.

Depends, if you like divisive politics and winner-takes-all-situations I guess...

 

[Takhisis]

What winner?