Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Akka]

This refernedum was non-binding. If the people in Westminster were cynical enough (which it wouldn't be surprissing because we're talking about the English here) they could pretend that nothing happened if they wanted to. Of course they won't out of fear of political suicide for doing so, but technically it's still possible to ignore the referendum altogether.

They won't pretend it didn't happen. They will just drag it for as long as it's convenient, kicking the can down the road.

 

[Snorrius]

Or it shows us that prosperous, stable countries don't experience the sort of social and political upheaval that tends to be associated to the collapse of traditional monarchies.

Are you familiar with the term "cargo cult", at all?

This term works both ways. If anything, we can apply the term "cargo cult" to blind adoption of democratic republicun institutions by countries which did not evolved the way successful Western democracies did and without deep understanding how institutions in this countries works.

Democracies was observed since antiquities -- and it was already clear at that time is that republics is less inherently stable than monarchies. To be stable they have either to limit significantly voting rights, or have ability to control mass opinion. Twentieth century had tools for that (radio and TV which helped to shape a unified opinion) but with Internet it is becoming way harder as unexpected happenings like Brexit or «Alien vs Predator», I mean, «Hillary vs Trump» drama show us.

 

[Verbose]

It is just fear of change.

Uncertanity rather. The UK actually doesn't NEED to change a bloody thing here, unless it insists on it. It's just that clearly no one has the first idea about what they are going to change, how, and one suspects also rather why?

It's being observed how the leave-side somehow demanded a political earthquake, yet somehow assumed the local political landscape would be completely unaltered.

Considering the leave-side has this line about "control" as the outcome, the situation is bloody ironic, since lack of it is precisely what everyone is getting.

 

[Traitorfish]

This term works both ways. If anything, we can apply the term "cargo cult" to blind adoption of democratic republicun institutions by countries which did not evolved the way successful Western democracies did and without deep understanding how institutions in this countries works.

Yeah, probably. But Spain wasn't Zaire: it had previously been a functioning democratic republic, and the eventual outcome of the post-Franco reforms was, like all surviving European monarchies larger than a postage stamp, "republic plus king".

Spain didn't retain its monarchy because Franco was particularly far-sighted or imaginative, it retained its monarchy because it was something that the right didn't want to abandon and something that the left was willing to concede. There's a reasonable argument that it contributed to the stability of prosperity of Spain in the post-Franco era, but that's largely because it gave reformers the legitimacy to barricade the Francoists out of power: hardly a testament to the political wisdom of Franco himself.

 

[Verbose]

What winner?

There are winners. They just didn't want the prize and apparently have no idea what to do with it.

Which probably boils down to not realising what a referendum would entail, IF they won.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yes, and?

Of all the democratic options, a referendum is probably the most brutal tool in the box. It makes very clear winners and losers, as if national politics needs that particularly. There are countries in Europe with scars lasting decades from things not disimilar to the present "Brexit" situation. (Clearly the British weren't aware.)

What's telling is how it tends to be brought out when none of the political parties wants/dares to make an issue the centerpiece of an ordinary parliamentary election process.

Instead we can get situation like the Brexit-confusion. Which even the winners now have second thoughts about.

But what was the practical alternative?

Do you really think that another 40 years of the mixture of scepticism
and luke-warm commitment from the UK was in anyone's interest?

Personally I'd have preferred a more US style constitution with all powers
not specifically allocated to the EU remaining with the member states,
with the EU Commission accountable to the EU Parliament, with direct
election of the President and key posts by EU citizens with recall option.

But nobody was going to agree that.


This may likely force another hard choice, for the Scots to decide to stay with
England or split; but the situation with the SNP MPs only being at Westminster to
sabotage the English & Scottish union is unstable and not tenable in the long term.

 

[Takhisis]

There are winners. They just didn't want the prize and apparently have no idea what to do with it.

Which probably boils down to not realising what a referendum would entail, IF they won.

Prize: one activated, pre-glued hand grenade. Catch! It's gonna be a blast!

 

[Kyriakos]

Depends, if you like divisive politics and winner-takes-all-situations I guess...

The loser standing small


Link to video.

(an excellent song, btw... although too sad)

 

[Tahuti]

There's a reasonable argument that it contributed to the stability of prosperity of Spain in the post-Franco era, but that's largely because it gave reformers the legitimacy to barricade the Francoists out of power: hardly a testament to the political wisdom of Franco himself.

Isn't Partido Populare populated with a significant group former FET-JONS types and supporters in the same vein, say, the Bulgarian Communist Party became Social Democratic?

 

[Traitorfish]

This may likely force another hard choice, for the Scots to decide to stay with
England or split; but the situation with the SNP MPs only being at Westminster to
sabotage the English & Scottish union is unstable and not tenable in the long term.

If prolonging the Union is something you favour, you could probably do better than characterising Scotland's elected representatives as saboteurs.

If anything, the surest way to neutralise the SNP's image as a rebel contingent at the gates of power is to treat them as a colourful but basically mundane party of centre-left regionalists, which is, outside of the specific context of independence debates, exactly what they are.

 

[Atticus]

I'm at the moment reading an article of the increased racism in UK after the referendum. Here's an international link of one case, and this is for Tak.

It reminds me of the 2011 parliamentary elections here, when the nationalistic "True Finns" got promoted to the big league. It was plainly visible that people took it as a license to be racist jerks. They began shouting on black people on the streets etc.

Another related thing is what the populist politicians will use as their means when they can't blame EU for everything. Will the foreigners in the UK become the bad thing. Or perhaps the wrong coloured Brits? Of course they will find something to blame, a different thing is how deep they have to go.

 

[Verbose]

What do you people think about the chances of domino effect? I think that it that case Denmark would be next. Big euroskeptic party, no euro (even though currency peg) and they only entered the EU because of the British. Lots of chances to be next in line IMO.

Right now? Low. Nothing about the current UK predicament makes anyone much inclined to follow.

The Danes have been polling themselves over the weekend. Turns out 53,5% think Denmark shouldn't hold a referendum on its EU membership, and if it did, a solid majority would vote to stay. The Danish government hasn't got the issue on its radar even.
http://www.jyllands-posten.dk/prote...national/ECE8753803/danskerne-vil-blive-i-eu/

Sweden has done the same, and with the same result: 56% think a referendum a bad idea, and 52% would vote to stay anyway (31% would like to leave). Swexit is a desiderata only for the extreme right and left.
http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article23070089.ab

 

[gangleri2001]

Isn't Partido Populare populated with a significant group former FET-JONS types and supporters in the same vein, say, the Bulgarian Communist Party became Social Democratic?

Yes it is. In fact a couple of days ago the newspaper Público published recordings on how the all PP and the prosecutor office cooperated back in 2014 in order to make up charges againt independentist politicians. Neofrancoism at tis finest.

 

[Verbose]

But what was the practical alternative?

Do you really think that another 40 years of the mixture of scepticism
and luke-warm commitment from the UK was in anyone's interest?

So go ahead and trigger Article 50 already for Pete's sake!

Get off the stove, you'll likely cook for rather a long time otherwise — and incidentally, unblock the situation for the remaning 27 EU member states, so everyone can start the process of moving on from the UK and it's politics-of-identity in relation to Europe.

Take the hits. Find out what's on the other side of the mirror, for better or for worse. It should be what the British voted for after all. (Well, not the Scots or the Northern Irish, but they probably should leave in a UK break-up anyway.)

Personally, I've thought for a long time that the UK cannot remain the EU if a majority of Britons are aganist it, not without doing its democracy a serious nuisance.

The question of course might be if the British are against the EU for any good reasons at all, if they even know why they are?

But it matters not in the end, IF they oppose the EU.

So the UK should leave. Unless the British have changed their minds? Do they even know today?

That's also the kind of outcome these kinds of referenda tends to produce. Very large, peed-off minorities that the marginally larger majority still have to relate to. About things that might actually matter. Just telling them to sit down, shut up, and suck it all up should ideally be sufficient. It's just that in itself that can make some people change their minds about it all.

 

[Snorrius]

Yeah, probably. But Spain wasn't Zaire: it had previously been a functioning democratic republic,

Was it? It only last for a few years and collapsed the way many others collapsed at the time.

and the eventual outcome of the post-Franco reforms was, like all surviving European monarchies larger than a postage stamp, "republic plus king".

It is not a bad result. After all, the zeitgeist was not benevolent to monarchies at all. Russia, for example, was not that lucky, so we have to deal with this republican nonsense almost 100 years.

Spain didn't retain its monarchy because Franco was particularly far-sighted or imaginative, it retained its monarchy because it was something that the right didn't want to abandon and something that the left was willing to concede. There's a reasonable argument that it contributed to the stability of prosperity of Spain in the post-Franco era, but that's largely because it gave reformers the legitimacy to barricade the Francoists out of power: hardly a testament to the political wisdom of Franco himself.

Well, we can not examine his mind, so we can only observe his actions and outcome. His economy policy was fine, he kept necessary distance from Hitlerian Germany, ward off Communists and transit his power in smart way. I think it is a good result for the ruler.

 

[sherbz]

I am totally despondent about all of this, it really really sucks. And i blame old people. They had the welfare state, they had the NHS, they had cheap council houses, which were then later bought by them. The younger generation has none of this. All tax rises should fall on their heads and not mine. They should lose their comforts in social security to pay for this mistake, it is the only way.

 

[classical_hero]

They won't pretend it didn't happen. They will just drag it for as long as it's convenient, kicking the can down the road.

The EU won't want that since they have already said they want the United Kingdom out as soon as possible. Neither side would look good if they drag this out.

 

[Snorrius]

I am totally despondent about all of this, it really really sucks. And i blame old people. [...] They should lose their comforts in social security to pay for this mistake, it is the only way.

Punish the old!

 

[Akka]

The EU won't want that since they have already said they want the United Kingdom out as soon as possible. Neither side would look good if they drag this out.

Of course the EU doesn't want that. They already said so. The problem being, it seems there isn't any legal way to actually kick the UK out if it drags its feet forever.

And the problem is, it's a very hard task ahead, and nobody in the Leave camp has any idea what to do nor any plan, so they aren't keen on actually having some balls and jump. It's telling that it's the Leave campaigners themselves who look the least eager to move forward now, despite this being their supposed entire goal.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I am totally despondent about all of this, it really really sucks. And i blame old people. They had the welfare state, they had the NHS, they had cheap council houses, which were then later bought by them. The younger generation has none of this. All tax rises should fall on their heads and not mine. They should lose their comforts in social security to pay for this mistake, it is the only way.

Precisely which mistake are you talking about?