Is Britain about to leave the EU?

Status
Not open for further replies.
It's interesting to see this little drama unfold. It was clear from the start that this whole thing isn't actually about the EU. If after days of negotiating, the most important things you can come up with are: a) striking a single sentence in the enormous corpus of EU treaties b) Deregulating your pals in the City and c) Reducing child benefits for a couple of Poles*, then was that really worth the fuzz?

It was clear for a long time that these negotiations and the referendum where mainly important from a domestic British POV. Cameron promised them, and Cameron needed to make some moves to counter UKIP politically. The actual content of those moves was not so important, only that they would look like big things to the poorly-informed-on-EU-matters UK voting public.**

Now, though, this saga seems to have gone from European via national politics to a good old intra-party fight between Osborne and Johnson over who will succeed Cameron as Tory leader (and PM?). Cameron will either lose the referendum, or will hang on by the skin of his teeth and by Labour support. Either way, he is damaged goods and the vultures are positioning themselves.

* So now they'll also bring over their children!
** Spoiler: He failed
 
Yeah, if there's one problem with the EU, it is overregulation of the banking sector :rolleyes:

Have you read the abominations put into the single resolution mechanism? Even considered the effect of curtailing political options regarding the national specificities of financial crisis?
Have you noticed that the way the non-elected ECB behaves is arbitrary (they have shown themselves to not be boud by rules, rather to make them up when desired), yet elected national governments are being bound to strinct (and inappropriate) procedures?

Surely the best argument in favour of England voting for the exit is that it'll lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom.

Pointless. The UK just had a referendum on that, there is no political cover to repeat it soon.

If an exit from the EU was decided only on a government level there might be grounds to call for a new referendum (we were betrayed by the government!). But if it results from a nationwide vote there is no excuse for one anytine soon (the people of the country - of which you just chose to be part - decided it).


I'm disappointed at Sweden's lukewarm feelings about Brexit. For Sweden, UK is a very important if not the most important ally in EU politics, we often find common ground on various issues. For this reason it would be sad if UK left. :(

Easy solution: just leave the rotten empire also.

It's interesting to see this little drama unfold. It was clear from the start that this whole thing isn't actually about the EU. If after days of negotiating, the most important things you can come up with are: a) striking a single sentence in the enormous corpus of EU treaties b) Deregulating your pals in the City and c) Reducing child benefits for a couple of Poles*, then was that really worth the fuzz?

It was clear for a long time that these negotiations and the referendum where mainly important from a domestic British POV. Cameron promised them, and Cameron needed to make some moves to counter UKIP politically.

Everything in the national politics of a sovereign state is about the domestic POV. And rightly so.

Cameron wanted to keep the UK in the EU, so he'd take any deal offered in the end. Others want it out for a variety of reasons, and most of those reasons are non-negotiable.
Sovereingty is something you either have, or lack. That is big for the nationalists, traditionalists, the "conservatives" in general, and they won't trust any promises, not after all the moves the EU has been making towards enforcing central rule, putting the governments of member countries in a position of impotence.
Financial regulation is important for the City interests, the business-liberal types. And they know that the ECB and the continental banks are on course to inevitable collapse: there is no technical solution to the mess (piles and piles of bad debt) in dug itself into that is also politically acceptable. They are not scared of any continental retaliation for brexit. Rather, they are jumping ship before it sinks.
Democracy is important for the "liberals" and "liberal left". And the EU has proven itself undemocratic time and again. The way the Lisbon Treaty was pushed after the "European Constitution" was rejected in referendum on the countries that counted (the ones that didn't were just ordered to vote again until their voters voted right) is prima facie evidence of its undemocratic nature. If the pro-EU party didn't fear democracy they'd put any new treaties to the vote. Hell, the UK's goverment had the courage to do it with the issue of Scotland!
And finally, security is an important issue to the career bureaucrats and intelligence-military apparatus that remains in the UK, even after it divested itself of its empire. The security of the country (many will be nationalists), and the security of their own careers. The EU reduces their options, makes their jobs harder, or even threates it with replacement by some new central bureaucracy layer. Introduces conflicts that cannot be managed directly but must (or should) go through other actors in Brussels, Strasbourg, or Frankfurt. Binds the UK to a political construct that is already fraying due to multiple conflicts (Ukraine/Russia, the unsolved and unsolvable financial crisis of the Eurozone, the central european nationalist rebellion inside the EU, the political rebellion brewing in the souther coutries, etc) and would force them to put effort into holding this misbegotten polituical construct together... for the benefit of whom? The UK can have the same benefits outside of it, no one would cease trading after a brexit.

Every organized constituency in the UK has good reasons to support "brexit". The "pro-eu" group is basically made up of the people who are pathologically afraid of change (leaving the EU will be a disaster... because!), those eating out of EU managed funds, and a few who against all evidence remain deluded abut some nebulous european ideal.
Cameron probably now regrets having bet on the wrong horse but feels it it too late to change his position. He can see where things are heading, that is why he let his cabinet members campaign for what they wished and already said he won't resign after the referendum.
 
Now, though, this saga seems to have gone from European via national politics to a good old intra-party fight between Osborne and Johnson over who will succeed Cameron as Tory leader (and PM?). Cameron will either lose the referendum, or will hang on by the skin of his teeth and by Labour support. Either way, he is damaged goods and the vultures are positioning themselves.

Actually, that how this whole thing started: with Cameron ignoring anti-EU voices within his own party.

Have you read the abominations put into the single resolution mechanism? Even considered the effect of curtailing political options regarding the national specificities of financial crisis?
Have you noticed that the way the non-elected ECB behaves is arbitrary (they have shown themselves to not be boud by rules, rather to make them up when desired), yet elected national governments are being bound to strinct (and inappropriate) procedures?

You might have a point, but then you went off the deep end with a complete lack of understanding of ECB procedures. Point gone.

Everything in the national politics of a sovereign state is about the domestic POV.

Usually, yes. What seems to be entirely missing from the British POV here, is the the EU is actually to the advantage of the UK. No mention of that anywhere. Curious.

Cameron wanted to keep the UK in the EU, so he'd take any deal offered in the end. Others want it out for a variety of reasons, and most of those reasons are non-negotiable.

Non-negotiable reasons? What's that?

Sovereingty is something you either have, or lack. That is big for the nationalists, traditionalists, the "conservatives" in general, and they won't trust any promises, not after all the moves the EU has been making towards enforcing central rule, putting the governments of member countries in a position of impotence.

Assuming that's correct, the UK already opted out of several of these moves. Which are mostly about border regulations, customs, and the like anyway. Contrary to certain popular belief, there has been no move to 'central rule', but rather to increased democracy. If there's anything the EU lacks, it's precisely that: central rule. (Check any foreign policy crisis.)

As to the economic crisis response: that does not result from any EU directive (there, in fact, is no such directive, nor can there be), but on the apparent belief in the 'neo'-liberal policy of austerity. The same policy that proved disastrous in the 1930s. At which point, I'm sure you'll realize, there was no EU.
 
If an exit from the EU was decided only on a government level there might be grounds to call for a new referendum (we were betrayed by the government!). But if it results from a nationwide vote there is no excuse for one anytine soon (the people of the country - of which you just chose to be part - decided it).

If the vote in Scotland is massively at variance with that of the UK, there absolutely is grounds for a new referendum to ask the people of Scotland whether they feel more strongly about the first referendum or the second.
 
I've made up my mind what I'm voting in June.

Despite thinking that the EU is a "good thing" in the long-run, I'll be voting to exit.

Partly because I don't like Cameron, but mainly so that I don't have to pay any attention to the incessant bleating about the issue we'll be enduring for the next 4 months.

Also, I don't think the referendum will take the UK out anyway. People fear the unknown, and change to the status quo, too much for that.

I predict a 55%-Stay-In-45%-Leave split.

With a relatively low turn out around the 60% mark.
 
Is this another of your "not serious" posts?
 
If the vote in Scotland is massively at variance with that of the UK, there absolutely is grounds for a new referendum to ask the people of Scotland whether they feel more strongly about the first referendum or the second.

That scenario must be considered on two levels: internal UK politics and international EU politics.

Inside the UK, I remember that one point made last yead on the campaign about Scotland's referendum was that entry of the new contry to the EU would not be automatic. But now an exit of Scotland from the UK sould lead to an automatic entry to the EU? It stinks of the EU playing an Yugoslavia on the UK. It that possibility is even seriously raised during the UK exit referendum campaign it'll paint a very bad image of the EU with most of the UK's population. And with its government and bureaucracy. Even Scotland's politicians would probably shy away from being tarnished as "fifth columnists" for the EU.
You may be thinking of a long term situation: another referendum in a year or two. But the EU is dealing now with existential challanges that won't wait one or two years.

In international EU politics it would be nothing new to use the EU's influence to break another country. Or usiung the threat of breaking it to gain concessions. But the UK is not Yugoslavia! It is far more solid and far more powerful than the already broken yugoslavs were. And Spain and Italy, just to name two big EU member countries, would not look kindly on any such encourage-the separatists game carried out by Berlin and Paris to preserve their disfunctional european empire.

I kind of hope that the powers that be in the EU will be foolish enough to make some public threats about scottish independence during this UK referendum. It'll just strengthen the "no" v ote in the UK and put several governments scambling to set up their own exit plans. Then contingency plans will make the unthinkable possible, and the possible highly desirable over the dead-end present status of the european empire.
 
I'm not sure if you followed the Yugoslavia Wars (looks like you didn't) but former Yugoslavia didn't need external help in breaking up itself: it did so fine by itself. (There even was an arms embargo during the wars.)

Secondly, the EU played no part in it. Perhaps you are confused with NATO's interference with Serbia's Kosovo? This was well post-Yugoslavia.

Thirdly, I know of no country being broken by the EU. The EU doesn't even have a common foreign policy in most cases. (In the case of successive Greek governments committing fraud against the EU, that was not really something which could be ignored as it set a dangerous precedent if allowed.)

Lastly, if the UK is in the EU (which it is), then so is Scotland. Automatically. No conspiracy theory needed to explain 'EU interference'.
 
Nothern Irish unionists have a dilemma.
The generally dislike the EU, but voting to leave could break up the UK, which they really wouldn't like.
 
English people seem to think that everything is some darkly muttered EU conspiracy. It doesn't help rise the quality of the debate
 
Is this another of your "not serious" posts?

Yes. Of course. None of my posts is serious. I'm just a seriously not seriously-minded person at all.

The world is one huge joke; and if only more people would take it, and themselves, less seriously it might be a better place.

Though it probably wouldn't be.

Even so, there's no shortage of people - like Cameron, and Farage - who take it all very seriously indeed and seem utterly convinced that they know what's best for all the rest of us. I make no such claim for myself. And it matters not at all to other people what I think. It doesn't matter much to even me.
 
I wonder how many people in England will vote to leave the EU as a way of forcing the Scots to leave the UK and how many will vote to stay in the EU so that Scotland will stay in the UK.
 
Given that it's incredibly easy (if not actually obligatory) for a human being to hold two contradictory ideas in their heads at the same time, I'd say very few.
 
Seriously you may be correct
 
Scottish government saying there would almost certainly be new independence referendum if the UK votes for exit but Scotland doesn't. This isn't some darkly muttered EU conspiracy.

The SNP is chomping at the bit to have a 'legitimate' reason to hold another referendum. Of course, it's a really shady way to go about it as by far the vast majority of anti-EU people are in England.
 
The SNP is chomping at the bit to have a 'legitimate' reason to hold another referendum. Of course, it's a really shady way to go about it as by far the vast majority of anti-EU people are in England.

Sturgeon tried this sort of nonsense before the referendum was even penciled in. She wanted a separate Scottish referendum or some other rubbish to run alongside the UK one. Ultimately she needs to appreciate how a United Kingdom actually works. She might think that she is lord of the castle at the minute. But all political castles are merely a house of cards. And her white bible on the case for independence is now utter trash with the price of oil being what it is.

My prediction:

Scotland - 65% remain
Wales - 60% remain
Northern Ireland - 60% remain
North of England - 55% remain
South of England - 45% remain
London - 60% remain

Over all:
Remain - 53.5%
Leave - 46.5%

As for me? On balance i think we should remain in the EU. I have not heard a single credible argument in what to do if we leave. I am a classic liberal politically, so I do not trust big government and dont like bossy and interfering politicians, and Europe has plenty of that.

But i am swayed by Cameron securing an opt out of ever closer union. I think Europe needs a two speed europe - one for those in the euro and one for those out. It is also the largest market in the world, and thats not something you really want to be leaving any time soon.
 
If the UK leaves the EU the are pretty much going to stay in it, just like Norway technically isn't a part of the EU but is signatory to a lot of the treaties that bind EU countries together anyway. They'd have to follow most of the rules other EU countries have to follow anyway, they'd have to contribute money to the project, but would be shut out of any voting rights and ability to influence the organization.

Brilliant!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom