Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[EgonSpengler]

I double-checked, this is not from The Onion:

The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it
The Washington Post, 24 June 2016

At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" had more than tripled.

The run-up to the vote was marked by a bitterly divided campaign, one that was as much about immigration fears as it was about the global economy. But despite the all-out attempts by either side to court voters, Britons were not only mystified by what would happen if they left the E.U.— many seemed not to even know what the European Union is.

"What is the EU?" is the second top UK question on the EU since the #EURefResults were officially announced pic.twitter.com/1q4VAX3qcm

— GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) June 24, 2016

[cont.]

 

[Gigaz]

I don't think that any political leader will call for a similar EU exit referendum in the next 5 years. They all want to know first which price Britain is paying.

On the EU side it seems like there's a "Hit them hard for leaving" and a "Make it as comfortable as possible, otherwise it will hurt the economy" fraction.
There will be likely a compromise in which the EU will try to damage Britain wherever it has to gain something (like when British Bankers move to the continent), but otherwise they will likely try not to hurt Britain.

 

[Akka]

* Now, you may see those things as good things, hence why you choose to translate them in terms such as peace and co-prosperity, but its something that the British people have never been keen on, and certainly wouldn't have voted for in the 70s. And that's the point. Just because *you* like them *now* doesn't British people in 1975 would have.

I know, that's my entire point :

1) Political union was the established goal of the EEC from the beginning, and common currency was a long-term goal.
2) The UK never actually was interested in the EU, it only wanted a glorified common market.

You just confirm the latter.

I'm just railing at the idea these voters could not know that the EEC was about that in the mid-70 and now claim "it's not what I voted for !". People might have paid no attention and been bloody ignorant idiots, but the information wasn't secret and was easily available for anyone who would bother to get it.
Just like the EU structure is easily available today, yet people blame the EU for tons of "undemocratic" stuff while happily ignoring this stuff is decided by the people THEY elected (hence is democratic).

I don't think that any political leader will call for a similar EU exit referendum in the next 5 years. They all want to know first which price Britain is paying.

On the EU side it seems like there's a "Hit them hard for leaving" and a "Make it as comfortable as possible, otherwise it will hurt the economy" fraction.
There will be likely a compromise in which the EU will try to damage Britain wherever it has to gain something (like when British Bankers move to the continent), but otherwise they will likely try not to hurt Britain.

Or settle for "let's be nice to Scotland and harsh to England" ?

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't think that any political leader will call for a similar EU exit referendum in the next 5 years. They all want to know first which price Britain is paying.

On the EU side it seems like there's a "Hit them hard for leaving" and a "Make it as comfortable as possible, otherwise it will hurt the economy" fraction.
There will be likely a compromise in which the EU will try to damage Britain wherever it has to gain something (like when British Bankers move to the continent), but otherwise they will likely try not to hurt Britain.

I don't think so. If anything, France has Lepen as the frontrunner, and she obviously called for the same referendum to happen soon.

 

[Recon Rover]

Any parallels between the United States voting to leave Great Britain and declare war and the amount of racists in the United States?

 

[AdrienIer]

I don't think so. If anything, France has Lepen as the frontrunner, and she obviously called for the same referendum to happen soon.

No. Juppé is the frontrunner and he's a fierce Europhile

 

[hoplitejoe]

Perhaps this is a little over the top, but how likely is it that the UK is still a permanent member of the UN security council by 2025 after this?

 

[Sommerswerd]

See, you may not have noticed, but most of the rest of the world has moved beyond your 18th-century thought processes.

That does raise an interesting dilemma... The British Empire was at least party forged by force. If it breaks up, how can it ever be reformed?

There's a humpty-dumpty reference in here somewhere...

 

[BvBPL]

On the EU side it seems like there's a "Hit them hard for leaving"...

Which affirms the UK vote. No one wants to be party of a voluntary organization that would be vindictive on departure.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

That does raise an interesting dilemma... The British Empire was at least party forged by force. If it breaks up, how can it ever be reformed?

There's a humpty-dumpty reference in here somewhere...

If it breaks up? Didn't it break up about 70 years ago?

 

[Serutan]

See, you may not have noticed, but most of the rest of the world has moved beyond your 18th-century thought processes.

People in the countries bordering Russia might take issue with that...

 

[Phrossack]

Perhaps this is a little over the top, but how likely is it that the UK is still a permanent member of the UN security council by 2025 after this?

By that year, there's a good chance that the UK won't be the UK anymore without Scotland and possibly other regions. It could very well be nothing more than an England with a shrunken military and economy, and there's also the possibility of it giving up its nuclear arsenal. By that point, it really wouldn't make sense for such a small, weak country to be a member of the UNSC.

That does raise an interesting dilemma... The British Empire was at least party forged by force. If it breaks up, how can it ever be reformed?

There's a humpty-dumpty reference in here somewhere...

The Empire is dead and buried. There's not much left outside the British Isles, and even the membership of Scotland and perhaps even Northern Ireland is in question.

People in the countries bordering Russia might take issue with that...

Most of the rest of the world. But it should be noted that he's proudly extremely reactionary by Russian standards as well, and that's saying something.

 

[Zkribbler]

Perhaps this is a little over the top, but how likely is it that the UK is still a permanent member of the UN security council by 2025 after this?

If the UK still exists, IMHO it will still be a permanent member of the Security Council.

More likely, the UK will be replaced by England, which will take the UK's seat much the way that Russia took the seat of the former Soviet Union.

 

[Lexicus]

If the UK still exists, IMHO it will still be a permanent member of the Security Council.

More likely, the UK will be replaced by England, which will take the UK's seat much the way that Russia took the seat of the former Soviet Union.

That'd be my guess too. Is there even procedure in place for a permanent member exiting the Security Council? What exactly happened when the USSR broke up?

 

[Sommerswerd]

If it breaks up? Didn't it break up about 70 years ago?

By that year, there's a good chance that the UK won't be the UK anymore without Scotland and possibly other regions. It could very well be nothing more than an England with a shrunken military and economy, and there's also the possibility of it giving up its nuclear arsenal. By that point, it really wouldn't make sense for such a small, weak country to be a member of the UNSC.

The Empire is dead and buried. There's not much left outside the British Isles, and even the membership of Scotland and perhaps even Northern Ireland is in question.

So what happened yesterday and what will continue to happen over the next couple years is just the continuation of what has been going on for almost a century... the British Empire reverting into just... England, a minor nation, sharing an island/group of islands with some other minor island nations... like Haiti or something like that?

 

[Arakhor]

My children are eight (8) and ten (10) years old.

Would you give them the vote?

No, but I'd have given Sixth Formers the vote too. It is their Britain at stake too.

What's more, if people in their 20s and 30s can't be trusted to make the 'right' decision, why bother enfranchising anyone younger than 40?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Does this mean England gets kicked out of Civ 6?

 

[Snorrius]

Most of the rest of the world. But it should be noted that he's proudly extremely reactionary by Russian standards as well, and that's saying something.

I am just being honest. Britain actually does not need to apply any force. It is Scotland who have. If Scotland makes a vote to exit the kingdom, London official can just say: "Yeah, we hear ya, now we need to think and come up with plan how to implement it.. or not". If Scotland will try to actually implement this idea, it is them who have to apply force.

To think that some vote abide London to voluntarily help Scotland to exit the kingdom -- is to indulge in pony-fantasizing.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The NASDAQ futures index appears to be already down about 5%. I'm not sure what the usual threshold for suspension would be, though. FTSE futures index is down about 10% meanwhile, similar to DAX.

The Nikkei is down 8% today already. ASX seems to have settled at about -3.5% for the last few hours.

My sister and her boyfriend are moving to the UK quite soon, and had decided to hold off on buying pounds. Seems like a smart decision.

A few minutes ago the DOW was down 3%.

Let's hope this only creates a blip in the world's financial markets. A big, long lasting hit will not help anyone. But it might be a good time to visit the UK umm England.

 

[AlmostCivilized]

I am pretty sure this move cannot happen (UK minus Scotland applying to join the Eu), cause it is pretty farcical atm..
Also, the map alone tells you it would not be viable/expressing the population anyway.

According to Sturgeon's actual legal argument, the vote and map results are unsafe and invalid because the facts about the UK are continually changing:

2014: Scotland voted to remain the UK given the fact that the UK is a permanent member of the EU.

2016: UK votes to leave the EU given the fact that the UK contains Scotland, Wales, England, Northern Ireland, etc.

2016: The Scotland voting results in 2014 are invalid because the facts about the UK have changed*.

2016: Scotland is negotiating entry into the EU; this has already begun according to Sturgeon.

20??: (scenario) Scotland calls for a second referendum on its UK membership.

20??: The UK voting results in 2016 to leave the EU are invalid because the facts about the UK have changed*.

20??: (scenario) Scotland vote to leave the UK.

20??: (scenario) England, Wales, N.I., Gibraltar vote to leave the UK in-line with above.


* Same legal precedent. The actual argument as presented by Sturgeon. 2016 map results would be invalid from the moment Scotland calls for 2nd referendum.