Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[bathsheba666]

Well, whether we are talking about Romanians, Bulgarians, or whoever, it does not matter; this is EU immigration, which the UK government could not control with free-movement of people. One of the below is only showing as single jail, and the other four articles are not from entirely reliable sources (actually biased right-wing newspapers), but it gives a rough idea of the extent problems I am talking about.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdSA8D9c4TU

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/659620/Britain-prison-huge-rise-EU-convicts-150million-taxpayer

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...in-three-Romanians-arrested-figures-show.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/378232/Immigrant-crime-soars-with-foreign-prisoners-rising

Yes it gives a rough idea that what you are talking about is not reliable.

 

[SMcM]

The most ironice thing is, it's specifically the UK which pushed to expand the EU to Eastern Europe.

The hypocrisy never fails to give me a disgusted grin.

I didn't even know that (or if I did I forgot). Under which prime-ministers?

Yes it gives a rough idea that what you are talking about is not reliable.

Stop trying to be a smart-arse. The first link was a BBC video; that is reliable- they, if anything, have a pro-immigration bias. I actually recommend you watch the full show, as it is quite interesting. And the yes, the opinions given in those articles will mostly be drivel, but the statistics won't likely be pulled out of the air; that would have caused people to give the newspapers a lot of flack, so they'd likely only want to report on something where there are statistics which support their propaganda.

I'm not saying I support the 'no immigration' stance these papers are taking. But you're ignoring the facts if you claim that the EU allows controlled immigration. We would not have hundreds of Eastern Europeans in our jails if we had a system which allowed us to prevent the immigration of people who would not be of use to the economy. Admittedly only a very small fraction of immigrants have been arrested for significant periods of time, but we could have avoided getting these had we had controlled immigration in the first place.

What are the figures when controlled for things like age, gender, income, etc.? Because, as a rule, single young men of low socioeconomic status are more likely to be involved in crime and particularly violent crime regardless of ethnic or national origin.

Absolutely. But single young men of low socioeconomic status are likely overrepresentated in the immigration from countries like Romania (there is a lack of opportunity for them at home, so they are more likely to move to the UK to find oppurtunity than more successful people), and single young men of low socioeconomic status that have immigrated from Romania are probably more likely to end up in UK jails than single young men of low socioeconomic status from the UK are (perhaps due to things like it being harder for non indigenous people to get work, so they are more likely to be forced to turn to crime).

 

[bathsheba666]

If I ever feel like making that claim I promise you'll be the first to know.

Yes, the UK pushed for expansion eastwards of the EU, in pursuit of our thousand year policy towards Europe. (Too many prime ministers to list)

 

[Traitorfish]

Absolutely. But single young men of low socioeconomic status are likely overrepresentated in the immigration from countries like Romania (there is a lack of opportunity for them at home, so they are more likely to move to the UK to find oppurtunity than more successful people), and single young men of low socioeconomic status that have immigrated from Romania are probably more likely to end up in UK jails than single young men of low socioeconomic status from the UK are (perhaps due to things like it being harder for non indigenous people to get work, so they are more likely to be forced to turn to crime).

Regarding the first part, I do acknowledge that, I just think it's important to establish exactly why Romanians are over-represented in prisons. The articles you linked would prefer the reader to conclude that Romanians are just more strongly disposed to be criminals that British people, and in the case of the Mail, that the 99% of Romanians who aren't in prison simply haven't been caught yet, so I think it's important to put the statistics in context.

As for the second part, that's precisely what I'm asking: are young, single Romanian men of low socioeconomic status actually more likely to end up on the wrong side of a prison wall than other ethnic or national groups, and if so, to what extent? Because if you're going to treat this is a problem of immigration and not just of young working class men being a demographic which exists, you're going to have to flesh out your reasoning.

 

[Cheetah]

Aren't Romanian statistics like this influenced by a lot of Gypsies with Romanian citisenship? I've heard the Romanian over-representation would be reduced if Romanian Gypsies were grouped by themselves in the statistics. I haven't actually tried to look into the validity of this claim myself though.

 

[SMcM]

Regarding the first part, I do acknowledge that, I just think it's important to establish exactly why Romanians are over-represented in prisons. The articles you linked would prefer the reader to conclude that Romanians are just more strongly disposed to be criminals that British people, and in the case of the Mail, that the 99% of Romanians who aren't in prison simply haven't been caught yet, so I think it's important to put the statistics in context.

Well, I was just pointing to these articles due to the statistics, no one is claiming that the mail has anything useful to say in terms of opinions.

As for the second part, that's precisely what I'm asking: are young, single Romanian men of low socioeconomic status actually more likely to end up on the wrong side of a prison wall than other ethnic or national groups, and if so, to what extent? Because if you're going to treat this is a problem of immigration and not just of young working class men being a demographic which exists, you're going to have to flesh out your reasoning.

Well, I already laid out my reasoning in simple terms- it is harder for them to get work, so easier for them to be forced into crime. I'm not attached to that idea though, it could just as easily be false. The only thing which would make me think otherwise is the attitudes of the Romanians in the jail documentary; they come here, there is nothing for them contrary to what they'd been led to believe and they have no loyalty to the country, and so they have turned to crime. One even brags about how he will go out and do it again. But it's not like there isn't a lot of similarly minded indigenous people anyway, so I could very well be wrong.

I was only speculating that as a reason for the large numbers of Romanians in prison. It could well be that the first reason (single men of low socioeconomic status possibly being overrepresentated in immigration from Romania) is the sole reason for overrepresntation of Romanians in the UK prison population. Or it could just be completely random (I would be sceptical of that though).

Regardless, it is a problem of immigration; the types that are in our prisons are likely people that we would rather have not introduced to the country. There may only be some 600 Romanians currently in UK jails, but as one of those articles I posted was pointing out, that is costing quite a bit.

Aren't Romanian statistics like this influenced by a lot of Gypsies with Romanian citisenship? I've heard the Romanian over-representation would be reduced if Romanian Gypsies were grouped by themselves in the statistics. I haven't actually tried to look into the validity of this claim myself though.

Sounds likely. This could be a significant part of the explanation.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Well, whether we are talking about Romanians, Bulgarians, or whoever, it does not matter; this is EU immigration, which the UK government could not control with free-movement of people.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

So according to the DailyMail a whopping 0.092% of Poland are criminals
And are grounds for leaving the EU immediately because I assume they all failed at MATHS ?

And the Daily Mail comments are hilarious, sad but hilarious

Statistics will reignite the EU immigration debate as election approaches

Whereas Poland, which has the largest population of 617,000 in the UK, ranks high in the table, with 573 prisoners imprisoned, it comes second to Romania, which saw 760 of its 126,000 population incarcerated.

The bulk of those jailed – 34,168 out of 39,773 – are Britons and only a tiny minority of foreign nationals fall foul of the law.

 

[innonimatu]

Aren't Romanian statistics like this influenced by a lot of Gypsies with Romanian citisenship? I've heard the Romanian over-representation would be reduced if Romanian Gypsies were grouped by themselves in the statistics. I haven't actually tried to look into the validity of this claim myself though.

What's the point of this question? They're still romanian.

 

[Takhisis]

And are grounds for leaving the EU immediately because I assume they all failed at MATHS ?

It's a point of cultural pride to claim that one is bad at mathematics in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Aren't Romanian statistics like this influenced by a lot of Gypsies with Romanian citisenship? I've heard the Romanian over-representation would be reduced if Romanian Gypsies were grouped by themselves in the statistics. I haven't actually tried to look into the validity of this claim myself though.

What's the point of this question? They're still romanian.

Gypsies are a particular subset.

 

[JohannaK]

One that is particularly marginalised and criminalised, too.

 

[innonimatu]

One that is particularly marginalised and criminalised, too.

To be honest that is not simply prejudice, it is a direct result of the actual behavior of a very large number of people from that subset...

 

[aronnax]

Well, I already laid out my reasoning in simple terms- it is harder for them to get work, so easier for them to be forced into crime. I'm not attached to that idea though, it could just as easily be false.

Surely if anything, it is easier for Romanians and other immigrant groups to get jobs given their willingness to work for lesser pay than the British in the same low skilled-jobs.

After all, it's part of the whole 'dem immigrants stealing our jobs and lowering wages' rhetoric that is quite popular with anti-immigration movements.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/17/eastern-european-immigration-hits-wages

It's a point of cultural pride to claim that one is bad at mathematics in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

In my statistics class at uni, my British friends were completely unrepentant on the usefulness of stats (I'll just hire an intern to do this for me) and refused for days to let me teach them Microsoft Excel because it was not necessary.

 

[Takhisis]

One that is particularly marginalised and criminalised, too.

To be honest that is not simply prejudice, it is a direct result of the actual behavior of a very large number of people from that subset...

It's a bit of a vicious circle by now.

Surely if anything, it is easier for Romanians and other immigrant groups to get jobs given their willingness to work for lesser pay than the British in the same low skilled-jobs.

After all, it's part of the whole 'dem immigrants stealing our jobs and lowering wages' rhetoric that is quite popular with anti-immigration movements.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/17/eastern-european-immigration-hits-wages

Schrödinger's immigrant: too lazy to work but at the same time takin' er jerbs!

In my statistics class at uni, my British friends were completely unrepentant on the usefulness of stats (I'll just hire an intern to do this for me) and refused for days to let me teach them Microsoft Excel because it was not necessary.

Plotinus posted something about the ‘not good at maths’ fad two or three years ago IIRC.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Problem SOLVED !

Many brexiters think we've already left the EU, so should be an easy sell to the... less informed people that voted out, that we've left the EU, totally and entirely of course, we're just being friendly with our continental neighbours, and wonderfully keeping all the trade deals and passporting we used to have - and EU migration would instantly drop to 0 to boot!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/04/britain-japanese-brexit-letter-eu

 

[SMcM]

So according to the DailyMail a whopping 0.092% of Poland are criminals
And are grounds for leaving the EU immediately because I assume they all failed at MATHS ?

And the Daily Mail comments are hilarious, sad but hilarious

You seem to be the one not doing maths; 0.09% of Poles in the UK are currently part of the prison population. The number that have previously been arrested will be far higher, and not every criminal is caught. Not that this means anything, but the statement that '0.092% of Poland are criminals' is nonsense- are you not a criminal till you're caught or something?

Spoiler :

Anyway, the case being made is not 'Polish criminals are grounds for leaving the EU immediately', it is that there are 760 Romanians, 573 Poles, 386 Lithuanians, 168 Latvians, and hundreds of other eastern Europeans in UK jails including Slovaks, Bulgarians and Albanians (Albania isn't EU obviously, but I presume the Albanians migrated to other EU countries before they got here, so that can probably be put down to them too). This is not a reason to leave the EU, and clearly most EU migrants are beneficial to the UK, but represents a flaw in the policy of the EU, and demonstrates the point I made earlier that the UK does not, regardless of what you choose to believe, have controlled immigration. Yes, the UK has its fair share of criminals already, but what good are we doing gaining thousands more from the rest of Europe?

Surely if anything, it is easier for Romanians and other immigrant groups to get jobs given their willingness to work for lesser pay than the British in the same low skilled-jobs.

After all, it's part of the whole 'dem immigrants stealing our jobs and lowering wages' rhetoric that is quite popular with anti-immigration movements.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/17/eastern-european-immigration-hits-wages

Well it is actually harder for immigrants to get the jobs, but then they work much harder in many cases, so it is possible they are more likely to end up in jobs.

 

[FriendlyFire]

but represents a flaw in the policy of the EU, and demonstrates the point I made earlier that the UK does not, regardless of what you choose to believe, have controlled immigration. Yes, the UK has its fair share of criminals already, but what good are we doing gaining thousands more from the rest of Europe?

UK cannot stop Syrians refugees camping in France from entering the UK ???
Or the EU dosnt enforce the Dublin rule, has poor borders since expanding and immigration laws are up to each country to act unilaterly and sovereign despite what EU law may say ?

Because it seems every country in the EU is pretty much doing whatever it feels like in regards to immigration. Brussels can whine and do little else.

UK still has an wide arsenal of options regarding law enforcement and punishment if it wants to combat crime including crimes by Eastern Europeans. Just have "special" prison for Romanians.

 

[SMcM]

UK cannot stop Syrians refugees camping in France from entering the UK ???

That agreement is not related to the EU; those people illegally entered France in the first place, so are not entitled to free-movement.

Because it seems every country in the EU is pretty much doing whatever it feels like in regards to immigration. Brussels can whine and do little else.

Well, if that is what it seems then clearly things are not as they seem. If we were to pull the plug on free-movement, you really think there would be nothing in the way of consequences on the part of Germany and the EU? Most likely we would be denied the single market. Yes, countries are getting away with not taking non-EU refugees, but a country would certainly not be able to get way with blocking immigration from another EU member state. There is absolutely no way that the UK government could get away with blocking immigration from Romania or anywhere else.

UK still has an wide arsenal of options regarding law enforcement and punishment if it wants to combat crime including crimes by Eastern Europeans. Just have "special" prison for Romanians.

Really? The only sensible solution I can see would be sending the EU immigrants in our prisons back to their own countries to serve their time there. Most of them don't even want to remain here after they have finished their sentences anyway. But sending them back is not something the EU would approve of.

 

[Arakhor]

But sending them back is not something the EU would approve of.

I don't see why not. They won't be in danger of torture or execution by going home and they've certainly breached the social compact by landing in gaol.

 

[Takhisis]

Because it amounts to deportation, which might be construed as going against the free movement of people but, more importantly, means saddling a country with the task of enforcing a prison sentence that British courts cannot order them to. British courts can only imprison people in British gaols.

 

[Arakhor]

True enough, I suppose. We'd decry being forced to do the same by another country.