Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Takhisis]

Thankfully veiled intentions, I would say.

Well, it is regarded as a clear mandate in the tabloids.

Newsmen and no gentlemen from the press.

For most of us the referendum vote was the authorisation for the Prime Minister to send
the Article 50 letter and formally start the process of leaving the European Union.

So it authorises a government to do something which they have officially stated they do not want to do?

Some will try and likely fail.

A simple amendment to the EEA permitting signatory states to apply quotas to limit net
migration to perhaps 1/3 of a per cent (which for the UK would be 200,000) per year would do.

But the other states may not agree that so the 2020 UK election may be fought on leaving the EEA.

And then we can all enjoy seing an excited Nigel Farage on the TV?!

That amendment to the EEA would have to be approved by the other signatory states. A 2020 election fought on leaving the EEA? After the fallout of this year's vote? Hmmm. I seriously wonder how many voters will be available to the Leave side, given the skew in favour of older citizens it had/has(/will have?).

 

[EnglishEdward]

Thankfully veiled intentions, I would say.

Newsmen and no gentlemen from the press.

I am not sure that I'd actually describe those writing diatribes and polemics for the tabloids as newsmen.

So it authorises a government to do something which they have officially stated they do not want to do?

Mrs May's government is not the same as David Cameron's government.

That amendment to the EEA would have to be approved by the other signatory states.

Quite so.

A 2020 election fought on leaving the EEA?

The BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38129171

is interesting in what it does not say.

Ms Szydlo is sensibly concentrating on the wellbeing of Polish nationals already in the UK. She does not seem to be asking for any further mass migration
to the UK to take place. The EU offered David Cameron a very flimsy and caveated cap, but the UK still voted to Leave. Perhaps it is dawning on the continent
there is a problem with excessive net migration, they may be as or even more accommodating on the question of a more robust cap in the context of the EEA .

In which case, the election (or further referendum) on leaving the EEA may not happen.

After the fallout of this year's vote? Hmmm. I seriously wonder how many voters will be available
to the Leave side, given the skew in favour of older citizens it had/has(/will have?).

Thing is that while older voters like me may die off, younger voters often change their minds as they age.

And there is a lot that can happen between now and 2020.

 

[Arakhor]

The PM is doing an awful lot of "watch the birdie", given that we've still got another three months of this "everything is fine, everything is on track" routine and everyone knows that this simply is not true.

Even if the Government does have a coherent plan for Brexit and the PM can legally trigger Article 50 without resort to Parliament (both of which are seriously in question, to say the least), she has no more idea than anyone what's going to happen in the actual negotiations.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The PM is doing an awful lot of "watch the birdie", given that we've still got another three months of this "everything is fine, everything is on track" routine and everyone knows that this simply is not true.

Even if the Government does have a coherent plan for Brexit and the PM can legally trigger Article 50 without resort to Parliament (both of which are seriously in question, to say the least), she has no more idea than anyone what's going to happen in the actual negotiations.

With two legal challenges going through the courts (one on Article 50 and one on whether leaving the
EU includes leaving the EEA) she is rather stymied, and there is not a lot she can do this year.

In the meantime visiting and being polite to foreign premiers to maintain civilised relationships is quite sensible.

 

[Arakhor]

In the meantime visiting and being polite to foreign premiers to maintain civilised relationships is quite sensible.

I certainly agree with that, but perhaps instead of fighting the courts over whether or not she's allowed to disregard Parliament in this matter, a better use of the Government's time might be to actually table some motions to get Parliament on board and set up a legal framework for this whole mess.

 

[AdrienIer]

In the meantime visiting and being polite to foreign premiers to maintain civilised relationships is quite sensible.

May is playing political simulator on high difficulty with Boris Johnson pissing off every diplomat he meets.

 

[Agent327]

The BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38129171

is interesting in what it does not say.

Ms Szydlo is sensibly concentrating on the wellbeing of Polish nationals already in the UK. She does not seem to be asking for any further mass migration
to the UK to take place. The EU offered David Cameron a very flimsy and caveated cap, but the UK still voted to Leave. Perhaps it is dawning on the continent
there is a problem with excessive net migration, they may be as or even more accommodating on the question of a more robust cap in the context of the EEA .

This is interesting in what it does say - and does not say.

'The EU offered David Cameron a very flimsy and caveaed cap': Yes, obviously, since the EU has very little influence of any migration to the UK. For instance, there is no free migration between the EU and the UK, and this will obviously not change with a Brexit. How 'the context of the EEA' will provide a cap on migration is beyond me: the EEA is specifically designed to allow free movement of in particular goods and persons.

 

[Arwon]

There's also the not-trivial point that Net Overseas Migration includes the movement of a country's own nationals. You can't "cap" that for a particular year without blocking your own citizens from returning home all at once.

(And also that your migration rates and the size of your foreign born population are only middling and you should stop being babies, but that's a different argument)

Actually while I'm at it you're probably underestimating net migration anyway, by only counting 12 months continuously as the definition. It's probably missing a lot of students and others who are spending most of a year but then going home for a while each year. Australia adjusted its measurement to 12 of 16 months and that upped NOM by a lot.

 

[Arakhor]

Yet another of HomeOffice!TheresaMay's anti-immigrant policies has been leaked and (of course) it's a total fiasco, suggesting that schools should be expected to make passport checks on prospective pupils before granting them places at school. For those who don't know, all children under 16 are both required and have the right to be in full-time education, regardless of their background.

If I were being cynical, I'd say that the three buffoons supposedly 'in charge' of Brexit were placed in those jobs to distract from May's total incompetence in these matters.

 

[Samson]

Yet another of HomeOffice!TheresaMay's anti-immigrant policies has been leaked and (of course) it's a total fiasco, suggesting that schools should be expected to make passport checks on prospective pupils before granting them places at school. For those who don't know, all children under 16 are both required and have the right to be in full-time education, regardless of their background.

If I were being cynical, I'd say that the three buffoons supposedly 'in charge' of Brexit were placed in those jobs to distract from May's total incompetence in these matters.

It does seem incredible to suggest that one should withhold education from children while they are in this country, for any reason let alone one so questionable as this.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yet another of HomeOffice!TheresaMay's anti-immigrant policies has been leaked and (of course) it's a total fiasco, suggesting that schools should be expected to make passport checks on prospective pupils before granting them places at school. For those who don't know, all children under 16 are both required and have the right to be in full-time education, regardless of their background.

If I were being cynical, I'd say that the three buffoons supposedly 'in charge' of Brexit were placed in those jobs to distract from May's total incompetence in these matters.

All rather pointless, as many native UK national children simply do not have passports.

A competent civil servant who had worked their way up from the bottom of the DWP
or HMRC would have known that. But the highly paid administrators (usually Oxbridge
or management consultancy sourced) at the top of such departments or politically
chosen appointees are either too remote from the UK electorate to recognise that,
or our playing inter-departmental politics by deliberately making spurious suggestions.

 

[EnglishEdward]

It does seem incredible to suggest that one should withhold education from children while they are in this country, for any reason let alone one so questionable as this.

One might wonder why the Home Office did not have their lawyers first check the suggestion.

There is also a practical problem with false passports. How can teachers who are not trained
in detecting such and not provided with terminals to the databases of valid UK passorts check them?
One usually ends up with the bureaucracy specifying that if the teacher has doubts they should refer
it to someone else, and then there would be the inevitable issue that kids with black, brown or yellow faces
seem to be disproportionately disadvantaged (discriminated against) in obtaining good school placements.

 

[Arakhor]

All rather pointless, as many native UK national children simply do not have passports.

One imagines that the schools would be expected to passport-check the parents, rather than the children, but the idea is still both malicious and incompetent in the extreme. I wonder how such an obviously moronic idea was mooted in the first place.

 

[EnglishEdward]

There's also the not-trivial point that Net Overseas Migration includes the movement of a country's own nationals. You can't "cap" that for a particular year without blocking your own citizens from returning home all at once.

(And also that your migration rates and the size of your foreign born population are only middling and you should stop being babies, but that's a different argument)

Actually while I'm at it you're probably underestimating net migration anyway, by only counting 12 months continuously as the definition. It's probably missing a lot of students and others who are spending most of a year but then going home for a while each year. Australia adjusted its measurement to 12 of 16 months and that upped NOM by a lot.

Yes indeed, there a number of details to be thought through with a net migration cap regarding the EEA.

Most importantly a net migration cap with the EU is not in itself a net UK immigration cap because there are many immigrants
to the UK that come from outside the EU e.g. from Canada and India that come here and do banking and play cricket etc.

 

[EnglishEdward]

One imagines that the schools would be expected to passport-check the parents, rather than the children, but the idea is still both malicious and incompetent in the extreme. I wonder how such an obviously moronic idea was mooted in the first place.

To do that properly of course requires, unbudgeted for, DNA testing.

 

[Arakhor]

And in the very latest chapter of the Brexit saga, David Davis has admitted that the UK may still continue paying into the EU to secure the best trade deals. What a total surprise that has come has - I'm blown away by this utterly unforeseen news.

Any bets on how it will affect the elusive £350m a week that is definitely not for the NHS?

 

[EnglishEdward]

And in the very latest chapter of the Brexit saga, David Davis has admitted that the UK may still continue paying into the EU to secure the best trade deals. What a total surprise that has come has - I'm blown away by this utterly unforeseen news.

Any bets on how it will affect the elusive £350m a week that is definitely not for the NHS?

I have no objection to those UK financial services that want passporting to continue to directly
pay the EU for the costs of that themselves.

And I have no particular objection to the UK paying to help the Greeks support refugees.

However if the European Commission simply want a blank cheque so that they get as much money as before
and do not have to cut their budget to reflect the downsizing of the EU consequent to the UK's exit, I say No.

 

[Arakhor]

However if the European Commission simply want a blank cheque so that they get as much money as before and do not have to cut their budget to reflect the downsizing of the EU consequent to the UK's exit, I say No.

You may not have noticed but the Government is trying hard to ensure that no one gets a say on it any more (least of all random people on message boards).

Besides, why is your immediate reaction that the EU is an unfeeling greedy monolith that cannot be compromised with?

 

[HAND]

Children are the easiest to assimilate into a culture, so it does raise a few questions why it was proposed. Maybe it was to appeal to UKIP voters and immigration hardliners in the event of a general election being called if the Supreme Court rules on Article 50 being a Parliamentary matter.

 

[Arakhor]

Children are the easiest to assimilate into a culture, so it does raise a few questions why it was proposed. Maybe it was to appeal to UKIP voters and immigration hardliners in the event of a general election being called if the Supreme Court rules on Article 50 being a Parliamentary matter.

Well, these documents date from 2015, so that's unlikely, but the thought of the Government condemning the EU for treating our citizens abroad as political pawns and then proposing that we treat our own children at home in exactly the same way is not completely unbelievable.