Is Elon Musk a fraud?

Is Elon Musk a fraud?

  • Yes, he is a fraud

    Votes: 46 69.7%
  • No, he isn't a fraud

    Votes: 20 30.3%

  • Total voters
    66
Status
Not open for further replies.
Not really feasible, alas.
Why not

Build some fudging catenary and trolley buses for christ sake.
Yeah, and that can handle a lot, hydrogen is just the clean burning take-it-anywhere fuel that seems to most directly address the shortcomings of petrol.

Can anyone explain why a fudging car needs weekly software updates? Why do we want more software in our cars? Do you people actually think the software industry does good work? We absolutely deserve to lose our industrial civilization. Good luck in digital feudalism, everyone. Hopefully your grandchildren get to be some of the lucky ones who still know how computers work.
 

Because they have basically the same drawbacks as electric cars (including needing expensive metals that have to be mined by child slaves in the Congo and such), except they run less efficiently when you take into account the hydrogen production (electrolysis from water; you can also manufacture hydrogen at scale by doing stuff to natural gas, but then the carbon goes into the atmosphere basically or you have to use a bunch more energy to "store" it).

@schlaufuchs is correct - the solution to land transport is to have a lot of trains and trolleys and monorails and stuff like that. A ratio approaching one engine per person is just too resource-intensive to be sustainable.
 
Because they have basically the same drawbacks as electric cars (including needing expensive metals that have to be mined by child slaves in the Congo and such), except they run less efficiently when you take into account the hydrogen production (electrolysis from water; you can also manufacture hydrogen at scale by doing stuff to natural gas, but then the carbon goes into the atmosphere basically or you have to use a bunch more energy to "store" it).
This is the line the electric car guys put out there, but consider:

1. Much greater energy density than lithium batteries (five to six times the energy density per unit weight, including the mass of the cell systems, tank, and H2 fuel itself).
2. Electrolysis has no carbon waste product whatsoever and is a pure electrical power-and-water input system with an output of clean-burning fuel that can replace any carbon fuel.

The real problem is that the battery economy is plug-and-play with all existing electrical infrastructure - including, and especially, the bad existing electrical infrastructure. Electrolysis is inefficient mainly in terms of profit: oil combustion can yield a very high efficiency in terms of power input to power extracted. That efficiency goes down to about 80%-90% when talking electrical power generated thus. For hydrogen electrolysis, that total efficiency is between 60% and 80%. But it is, however, an indefinitely survivable energy technology that could easily be placed into the people's hands, to guarantee the survival of industrial civilization. It's like oil, but anyone can make it down by the river. The only thing we really need to do, is stop paying the worthless people to do nothing, and start paying the unused masses to lay bricks. The inefficiencies, so-called, can be paid for by losses recouped from all the inefficiencies the capitalists have presided over the last 200 years.

@schlaufuchs is correct - the solution to land transport is to have a lot of trains and trolleys and monorails and stuff like that. A ratio approaching one engine per person is just too resource-intensive to be sustainable.
That's great but what about the ships and the planes?
 
Can anyone explain why a fudging car needs weekly software updates? Why do we want more software in our cars? Do you people actually think the software industry does good work? We absolutely deserve to lose our industrial civilization. Good luck in digital feudalism, everyone. Hopefully your grandchildren get to be some of the lucky ones who still know how computers work.
Weekly software updates are massive overkill (and indicative of an immature product). But software in general is not. Electronics has been present in cars since, what, the 80s? All electronics is on some level programmed.

Anyhow as a software engineer I'm biased, but it's not really any different to any other white collar industry. Not denying the bad, or Silicon Valley's oversized influence on both politics and stuff like the military-industrial complex, or the pathological union-busting.

But look at how people at Google protested the bad (and were subsequently punished for it). Repeatedly - workers there (and elsewhere) have demonstrated that they both have and exercise morals.
 
I actually just think software developers are too OK with failure and too uncritical of, well, critical requirements, and that it's a problem they're now trying to do everything. But I mean, nothing against the engineers per se. Except you should tell your bosses "no" sometimes. I get it, though. I really do.

There is also however a big difference between even the rudimentary software of cars and the way they were "programmed" in the '80s, and this absurd **** with trying to integrate multimedia features with "1-touch e-z accelerate 'quikdrive FUNmode'" bullfeathers. Like the CAN controls and adaptive cruise control features of the '80s? Great stuff, but also, developed in a way that was absolutely verifiable and provably functional on a mechanical level. Now we've got this extra layer of obfuscation and dodgy electronics between you and controlling your vehicle. I call that *insane.* On top of the dodginess of electrical drive systems in general. But oh boy, people are not ready to have that exposed.
 
Last edited:
Can anyone explain why a fudging car needs weekly software updates?

Ideally it needs to be constantly updated, but for now there are limitations.

1. Minor things like performance, ease of use, safety updates.
2. Many Tesla cars are connected to Dojo supercomputer, which uses reinforcement learning to build, over time, the network of autonomous driving by aggregating the knowledge on incidents on the road and sharing this knowledge among all cars. Millions of cars. Something happens on the road - computer updates every car with fresh logic and the best course of action for the chip included, as learned from the incident. It's a constant process of building a safer "autopilot".
3. Sometimes new apps come out, games, that need integration. The CIV clone "Polytopia" was a big hit among Tesla owners at one point.

Basically, a piece of software that becomes big enough and touches millions of people needs to be tweaked and worked on on a regular basis to adjust for the ever shifting reality, to adopt good ideas from competition. More importantly: to remove flaws, irrelevant code. That's just the nature of the thing. Otherwise: decay, stagnation, death.

Why do we want more software in our cars?

Not necessarily more software, but better data throughput. To make journeys safer. Look around. How many people really know how to drive? How many incidents are outside the scope of human reaction (150ms), but well within scope of computer reaction(3ms)? How many die on the road every year, while they could be alive under protection of aviation-grade autonomous driving system, which may not take over driving entirely, but intervene in critical situations. Cars are becoming faster and more agile every year. While humans don't. That needs to be compensated by software. So, we want better software. Sometimes that means more software.

Hopefully your grandchildren get to be some of the lucky ones who still know how computers work.

I'd say it's even more important for grandchildren to know economics and politics, so they can't be easily manipulated by those occupying the halls of power. Knowing the insides of calculator is nice, but not critical knowledge.
 
Ideally it needs to be constantly updated, but for now there are limitations.

1. Minor things like performance, ease of use, safety updates.
Why in the fudge should any of the following be tied to the software?!:

1. Performance?
2. Ease of use??
3. SAFETY UPDATES???

Three things software sucks at guaranteeing because they do not have a critical features design culture?!
2. Many Tesla cars are connected to Dojo supercomputer, which uses reinforcement learning to build, over time, the network of autonomous driving by aggregating the knowledge on incidents on the road and sharing this knowledge among all cars. Millions of cars. Something happens on the road - computer updates every car with fresh logic and the best course of action for the chip included, as learned from the incident. It's a constant process of building a safer "autopilot".
Millions! Hell, why not billions! Or TRILLIONS! How's it scale? How's it work? What's the exact amount of added value from +1 car? What's a piece of data? How does that data work? How is its quality measured? What are the diminishing returns? "Constant process!" "Autopilot!" Oh my god! I feel like I'm going insane!!!
3. Sometimes new apps come out, games, that need integration. The CIV clone "Polytopia" was a big hit among Tesla owners at one point.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Not necessarily more software, but better data throughput. To make journeys safer. Look around. How many people really know how to drive?
MANY MORE PEOPLE KNOW HOW TO DRIVE THAN COMPUTERS
I'd say it's even more important for grandchildren to know economics and politics, so they can't be easily manipulated by those occupying the halls of power. Knowing the insides of calculator is nice, but not critical knowledge.
Oh, I disagree. I think most of economics and politics - same thing, really - is mainly truisms that help make you feel comfortable with Elon Musk and his governments taking your money to play with toys. I think knowing how to build something is how you never go hungry.
 
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

For obvious reasons, they don't let you drive and play simultaneously. It's either one or the other.

Millions! Hell, why not billions! Or TRILLIONS! How's it scale? How's it work? What's the exact amount of added value from +1 car? What's a piece of data? How does that data work? How is its quality measured? What are the diminishing returns? "Constant process!" "Autopilot!" Oh my god! I feel like I'm going insane!!!

Well, before you go insane, I can tell you how it worked for my friend. He was leaving the gate of a roadside cafeteria, bushes on both sides of the fence, no visibility. Slowly pushing through the gate autopilot takes over and slams the brakes. A second later a cyclist zooms by at 40 km/h right in front of the car. The cameras on the front wings saw the threat human couldn't. (Because of the thick bush) Took over for a sec to save two lives from death or serious injury. Then went back to sleep again.

As for how's it work, here's the general idea:

 
No. I won’t be persuaded by anecdotes. I know how the technology works and I do not trust its unverifiable black box ass. Every time it magically finds a cyclist it might also same-day think a kid crossing the street is a puddle.
 
So in the Musk thread you'll stop criticizing the cars themselves but instead begin hoping they succeed.
I am far from convinced Tesla's will save the world. I think they take too much rescorces to be a true mass transport option. They may end up as a way for the rich to insulate themselves from the rest of the world.
I actually just think software developers are too OK with failure and too uncritical of, well, critical requirements
I kind of agree, but it is not really the software engineers fault.

The low standard of software in critical roles really irritates me, but I put it down to the general attitude of "We want this, what is the safest/cheapest way to make it happen" rather than "what can we do safely".

The primary way this shows is the amount of personal data that is lost by organisations that could do better, with recent examples of organisations that one would have thought WOULD care about their staffs data not being spread around the dark web would be the UK MOD and police who have both lost large amounts of staff data in recent months.

The police payroll system seems a perfect example. The police used to have a payroll system that was not on the internet. At some point someone decided to change to an internet connected system, knowing that this data breach was at least a possibility if not a likelihood or even certainty given enough time. They went ahead anyway. This decision was made by organisations all over the world, and now most (?) peoples data is in the hands of hackers.

To bring it back to cars, the range rover wireless key thing was a case where they had a secureish system and they made it loads worse because they wanted the feature that people could unlock their cars without doing anything (?). Their solution to the obvious security hole is not to design a secure system (perhaps a switch on the key) but to ban rf equipment, which is only becoming more important in our lives.
Basically, a piece of software that becomes big enough and touches millions of people needs to be tweaked and worked on on a regular basis to adjust for the ever shifting reality, to adopt good ideas from competition. More importantly: to remove flaws, irrelevant code. That's just the nature of the thing. Otherwise: decay, stagnation, death.
And then we come to software updates. Because of the standards that they hold themselves to they "need" OTA updates. They creates the obvious security hole that now your car can be hacked wirelessly. Are you confident that these people, who cannot design a key that is secure at release, can design a OTA update system that will be secure for the lifetime of the car? If it is not, what is the likely cost when "how to hack a car and make the brakes fail at speed" is a popular video on tiktok?

They could have just made it require a physical connection, right? Or required it to be taken to a garage? There were secure options, but they were rejected for convenience.
3. Sometimes new apps come out, games, that need integration. The CIV clone "Polytopia" was a big hit among Tesla owners at one point.
As an example of another obvious way to solve this problem, I have bought a car without a stereo and with a large space where one was. I suspect the original ones will be very expensive, so I am thinking about just putting a tablet there, perhaps with a solid state amp. This will give me all the "multimedia" functionality of a fancy connected car without any of the security problems, and I will still be able to turn the heater up without taking my eyes off the road because I have real knobs.

Having a hard airgap between safety critical features of a car and the internet seems such a good thing and so easy to implement I am amazed it is not offered.
For obvious reasons, they don't let you drive and play simultaneously. It's either one or the other.
So your passenger cannot play games on the move? Elon is such a kill joy.
 
Last edited:
And then we come to software updates. Because of the standards that they hold themselves to they "need" OTA updates. They creates the obvious security hole that now your car can be hacked wirelessly. Are you confident that these people, who cannot design a key that is secure at release, can design a OTA update system that will be secure for the lifetime of the car? If it is not, what is the likely cost when "how to hack a car and make the brakes fail at speed" is a popular video on tiktok?

Regulations ought to prevent such insecure systems, but regulatory capture has occurred.

As an example of another obvious way to solve this problem, I have bought a car without a stereo and with a large space where one was. I suspect the original ones will be very expensive,

These things are removed at scrap yards. I suggest you do an internet search. But don't buy the cheapest.
Buy one where the vendor promises a refund, if you return it promptly with a note stating it is not working.
 
These things are removed at scrap yards. I suggest you do an internet search. But don't buy the cheapest.
Buy one where the vendor promises a refund, if you return it promptly with a note stating it is not working.
The thing is I think the "stereo", which included a "TV" screen and stuff, was specific to the car. Only ~250 where sold in the UK and very few have been scrapped. It is possible I could get one from a different model, but it would not be a good as a modern tablet.
 
I understand. The price of near uniqueness.

Whereas cheapskate me buys common old car models on the
grounds that the car service industry can support them.

My next car may be electric, but it wouldn't be a Tesla.
 
I actually just think software developers are too OK with failure and too uncritical of, well, critical requirements, and that it's a problem they're now trying to do everything.
Speaking as one I think there’s a common mindset of “we can patch it later” that causes us to tolerate failure a bit much. Which is fine if you’re programming a video game. Not if you’re programming car safety features.

For obvious reasons, they don't let you drive and play simultaneously. It's either one or the other.
I don’t own a car so I might not understand, but why would you want to play a game in a parked car? The few times I have been in a parked car I could just play games on my phone.
 
Whereas cheapskate me buys common old car models on the
grounds that the car service industry can support them.
I would be amazed if you pay less for cars than me.
 
I drive automatics and aim to buy one that is not a fuel
guzzler and works, and that will last a couple of years.
That comes at a premium over large thirsty manuals.
 
I drive automatics and aim to buy one that is not a fuel
guzzler and works, and that will last a couple of years.
That comes at a premium over large thirsty manuals.
Actually, much as I dislike them, both my new car and the one it is replacing are autos. The last one I bought 11 years ago for £250.
 
That’s not “working” so much as “peacocking,” as anyone who has actually worked at an engineering startup knows. Every now and then you do get a technically engaged boss, but that is obviously not Musk, a guy who spends his entire time dropping inane brain babies and obsessing over the flush fit of door handles. He obviously has no respect for engineering let alone design and the only reason people care about him is their obsequious hero worship of the irresponsible morons whose incompetence is only matched by an ever-thinning pool of qualified and affordable professionals.

Tesla is an expensive failure of the incompetent business majors and landowners who run our society to recapitalize on a post-global warming car market. You can tell it’s a bubble because of how much bigger Tesla’s market cap is than the actual size of the global auto market. For a fraction of the value. There’s “good engineering” and then there’s “as good as it gets engineering,” here in the twilight of a society once ruled by technical experts but is now dominated by their spoiled children surrounded by legions of yes-men.

It goes beyond musk or Tesla or even cars in general. This is a pathology overwhelming the entire west. We are no longer a culture that loves machines. We love “efficiency” and numbers and the purity of the digital world. We love bright colors and flashing lights and impressive concept art. But you really just need to look at the demographics and employment figures, like always, to realize that America’s legacy of technical mastery is actually well behind it. Almost no consumer goods we can make economically to scale. Especially not electronics. Ours are more expensive and trussed up with bespoke “advantages.” Meanwhile western engineers literally can’t pass TSMC “how to build a semiconductor” tests. We’re too expensive for too little value and actually our peaks are lower than ever relatively speaking. The new masters of machines are in Asia, and we are pale imitators who are more interested in the stories we tell than the products we build. Well the stories are the products! That’s the only way you’d walk away somehow thinking Tesla is actually doing something impressive. It is a giant Potemkin operation, just like SpaceX. God SpaceX is even worse the way they’ve tied the fortunes of moon mission #2 to unproven designs nobody is actually responsible for making sure they work. What happens if a SpaceX rocket blows up? The government pays them for another one. What happens if we can’t debut robo taxi in the five years it was supposed to come out? The government lets prototype robo taxis kill people until we can brute force enough data through. How much data is enough? Somehow it’s literally never enough. It’s not only all highly inefficient, but it’s also an obviously incorrect hedge against the future. The correct play was to build light rail. Develop hydrogen fuel cells. Something cheap, sustainable, and maintainable using handheld equipment and flesh and blood. Leverage some of this human capital we got and can’t find a way to use. Instead we are trying to replace everyone’s cars with giant batteries hooked up to black box pilot computers. Complete insanity. What these people are doing is playing with expensive toys on your last dime.

And don’t get me started on Boeing. Musk isn’t the worst guy in the world. But just talking odds, if I had to pick, I’d say Bezos is the strongest overall candidate for Perma-Pharaoh of Earth and Space. At least he’s focused.
If only you were king of the world
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom