Libya: Seriously, where is this going?

[kochman]

Every alliance is an alliance of convenience, but I think this is a genuinely close one. I know it can be very, very hard for some people to imagine but for a lot of countries Russia is not the evil bogeyman. I think Armenia has a slight military edge over Azerbaijan BTW, but I'm open to being corrected.

Armenia is more powerful and has better troops...

Putin recently called the USA a "parasite"... swell guy.

 

[Camikaze]

I don't think anyone got the hint...

Moderator Action: Yeah, getting back to Libya would be a good idea. Feel free to start another thread to continue the current discussion.

 

[Camikaze]

Moderator Action: If you feel that the conversation is worth continuing, it's a better idea to either start a new thread as was suggested, or take it to PM (or even visitor messages if you prefer). Ignoring a mod action isn't the best way to go. Off-topic spam deleted.

 

[Red Door]

Well, in spirit of the revolution of the thread (Pun VERY intended), it looks like Libyan rebels have entered Tripoli.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Yup yup, here's the BBC article:

Libya conflict: Heavy gunfire erupts in Tripoli

Explosions and sustained gunfire have been heard in parts of Tripoli, as rebels close in on the Libyan capital.

A BBC correspondent in the city says it sounded like exchange of fire rather than celebratory gunshots.

Residents spoke of clashes in the city, amid reports that opponents of Col Muammar Gaddafi were being urged to go on the streets.

The rebels earlier claimed control of of Zlitan, 160km (100 miles) east of Tripoli, and Zawiya, 30km to the west.

However, pro-Gaddafi forces have been fighting back at the oil port of Brega, with the rebels admitting that they fell back from the eastern town's industrial zone under heavy bombardment.
Gaining momentum

There are reports of protests and gunfire in areas to the north and east, including the Tajoura district, where there was trouble at the start of this uprising against Col Gaddafi, the BBC's Matthew Price in Tripoli reports.

One credible source told the BBC there was heavy fighting in the city.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote

We will be victorious”

Moussa Ibrahim Col Gaddafi's Information Minister

Col Gaddafi's Information Minister Moussa Ibrahim said late on Saturday that the situation was under control, putting the trouble down to "small armed gangs".

"We will be victorious," Mr Ibrahim said.

Col Gaddafi certainly has support in Tripoli, our correspondent says.

In recent weeks at night more and more checkpoints have sprung up across the city. Pro-Gaddafi men and women have received weapons training.

However, rebel TV said this was the start of the uprising in the capital.

The momentum is clearly against Col Gaddafi and his supporters, our correspondent adds, with rebels having better weaponry.

Heavy shelling

A rebel military spokesman, Col Ahmed Bani, earlier confirmed that rebel forces had fallen back in Brega.

Brega, home to Libya's second-largest hydrocarbon complex and the place where the country's main oil fields feed into for refining, has repeatedly changed hands during the six-month-old conflict.

"Yesterday, the industrial zone was under our complete control, but the truth is that today the situation has changed due to heavy artillery shelling," Col Bani said on Saturday.

"We withdrew to the eastern part of the industrial zone."

After visiting Zlitan, the BBC's Orla Guerin said the rebels appeared to have a firm grip on the town, controlling the centre and manning checkpoints.

However, small-arms and mortar fire could still be heard, and rebels told the BBC that beyond a strategic bridge in the centre, there was still a risk of attack.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Zawiya said the rebels have succeeded in pushing Col Gaddafi's forces out of the city.

He said the bodies of sub-Saharan Africans could be seen on the streets, amid claims by the rebels that many of those fighting for Col Gaddafi were foreign mercenaries.

Rebel forces have also moved towards Tripoli from the south.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Zawiya says pro-Gaddafi forces no longer control the area

Nato, enforcing a UN-mandated no-fly zone to protect civilians since March, controls sea access to Tripoli.

Late on Friday, Col Gaddafi's Information Minister, Moussa Ibrahim, continued to insist government troops had the upper hand in both Zlitan and Zawiya.
Workers stranded

Meanwhile, reports suggest fresh senior figures in the Gaddafi camp may have defected:

Abdel Salam Jalloud, who helped Col Gaddafi come to power in 1969 but fell out with him in the 1990s, is believed to be making his way to Europe from neighbouring Tunisia

Libyan Oil Minister Omran Abukraa failed to return to Libya on Thursday after a visit to Italy and went to Tunisia instead, Tunisian sources said

Libya's conflict broke out in February, inspired by uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt which toppled the presidents of those countries.

Rebels in the east rapidly consolidated their gains, but a stalemate developed in the west as rebels there faced overwhelming military force.

The fighting has stranded thousands of migrant workers - many of them Egyptians - in Tripoli.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said it was planning to evacuate them in the coming days.

Since the conflict in Libya began, an estimated 600,000 migrant workers have fled the country, many with the help of the IOM, but many remain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14605391

 

[Ajidica]

$10 bucks that when they hold an election that elects a vaguely Islamist president who tries to nationalize the oil we will quickly find ourselves with a coup and a new dictator.

But in a less pessimistic move, it looks like this could finaly be resolved.
Unfortunately Yemen is still hopeless.

 

[aronnax]

$10 bucks that when they hold an election that elects a vaguely Islamist president who tries to nationalize the oil we will quickly find ourselves with a coup and a new dictator.

It's not 1953 anymore you know.

 

[Tee Kay]

It's not 1953 anymore you know.

Like anything has really changed since then.

 

[aronnax]

Since the fall of the Communism, what nation/government has been intentionally coup by Britain, America, France or similar Western powers? Aside from Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[Dachs]

$10 bucks that when they hold an election that elects a vaguely Islamist president who tries to nationalize the oil we will quickly find ourselves with a coup and a new dictator.

Such a person might actually be popular in Libya. Who'd be launching the coup?

 

[Ajidica]

The dictator? Lets all prepare for this in another 42 years.

 

[Tee Kay]

Since the fall of the Communism, what nation/government has been intentionally coup by Britain, America, France or similar Western powers? Aside from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Cote d'Ivoire?

Anyway, coups have gone out of fashion mostly. But you can still interfere in other ways. Remember when Hamas got elected.

 

[aronnax]

Cote d'Ivoire?

Anyway, coups have gone out of fashion mostly. But you can still interfere in other ways. Remember when Hamas got elected.

Yeah, but that's a far cry from installing a pro-western dictator.

 

[Tee Kay]

There just haven't been a case where that's required yet.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Since the fall of the Communism, what nation/government has been intentionally coup by Britain, America, France or similar Western powers? Aside from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[aronnax]

Iraq and Afghanistan.

You don't read do you.

 

[Winner]

The journalists these days are a joke.

"Heavy gunfire": a few guys with AK-47 shooting wildly in all directions
"Heavy casualties": more than one dead on either side
"Massive destruction": a few cars and houses burned
"Heavy shelling": a couple morons firing a few mortar rounds at a town
etc.

Have these idiots never heard of a real war? If a few dead constitutes heavy casualties, how would they call what happened on the Somme or Okinawa?

 

[Ayatollah So]

And if the rebels sometime soon conduct a serious assault on Tripoli, do they have a realistic chance of taking it?

 

[Winner]

And if the rebels sometime soon conduct a serious assault on Tripoli, do they have a realistic chance of taking it?

Depends entirely on whether the Gaddafi supporters give up or not. If they stand and fight for the city, it could be a bloodbath, especially since the rebels are worse than weekend soldiers. Defending is usually easier than attacking, and defending in a dense urban environment with thousands of civvies to use as shields against NATO air support is even easier.

 

[Cheetah]

The thing that complicates the situation is that everyone knows which tribe they belong to.

And the tribes who were treated well by Gaddafi may be in for some unpleasantness or worse...

It may very well be that Gaddafi's followers are fighting with their backs to the wall. If Gaddfi goes, so might they.