I voted for Sarkozy.
Likely French Presidential Runoff Poll
- Thread starter mazzz
- Start date
ComradeDavo
Formerly God
*cough* 3 French posters and still no answer for my question about Le Pen's voters!
Can it be assumed that Le Pen's votes will go to Sarkozy? Or is it likely that many of them will stay home?
Can it be assumed that Le Pen's votes will go to Sarkozy? Or is it likely that many of them will stay home?
Masquerouge
Deity
I believe they will, yes. That's what most analysts say, and it makes sense.
ComradeDavo
Formerly God
MamboJoel
Cool.
To be precise : Usually Le Pen voters go 20% to the left and 80% to the right (without abstention).
The "problem" here is that he maid a very low score, in fact he only got his hard core voters and very few of the protesting voters that headed towards more credible candidates this time : because of 2002, but also because of the kind of nationalist stances of Sarkozy and Royal : Flag, National Identity, National anthem etc...
So what will do these voters is pretty hard to say. If Le Pen makes a call to vote for Sarkozy or Royal (declaration on May 1st), they will likely follow the will of their historical leader. But if he doesn't give any orientation they might abstain.
So these 10% would usually give about 8% to the right and 2% to the left, but a possible abstention could reduce this to say... 5%- 1% which could be less harmful for Royal...
PS : note BTW that the main struggle for Sarkozy in the 1st round was against Le Pen, so there is now some kind of antagonism between the two...
The "problem" here is that he maid a very low score, in fact he only got his hard core voters and very few of the protesting voters that headed towards more credible candidates this time : because of 2002, but also because of the kind of nationalist stances of Sarkozy and Royal : Flag, National Identity, National anthem etc...
So what will do these voters is pretty hard to say. If Le Pen makes a call to vote for Sarkozy or Royal (declaration on May 1st), they will likely follow the will of their historical leader. But if he doesn't give any orientation they might abstain.
So these 10% would usually give about 8% to the right and 2% to the left, but a possible abstention could reduce this to say... 5%- 1% which could be less harmful for Royal...
PS : note BTW that the main struggle for Sarkozy in the 1st round was against Le Pen, so there is now some kind of antagonism between the two...
MamboJoel
Cool.
Ok, additional info about Bayrou and Le Pen voters in a poll here (french) :
http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentiel...sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html
Royal gets 46% of Bayrou, Sarko gets 25%
Royal gets 16% of Le Pen, Sarko gets 62%
Note that none of Bayrou and Le Pen have given any instruction to their voters yet. Bayrou tomorow, Le Pen on May 1st.
Also, 54% of Royal 2nd runoff voters do it to avoid Sarkozy while 57% of Sarkozy voters do it because they support him. Note that usually voter's attitude in the 2nd runoff is to eliminate more than to support.
Besides, this poll gives 51% - 49% in favor of Sarkozy (which clearly means undecided).
http://www.lefigaro.fr/presidentiel...sofres_duel_serre_entre_royal_et_sarkozy.html
Royal gets 46% of Bayrou, Sarko gets 25%
Royal gets 16% of Le Pen, Sarko gets 62%
Note that none of Bayrou and Le Pen have given any instruction to their voters yet. Bayrou tomorow, Le Pen on May 1st.
Also, 54% of Royal 2nd runoff voters do it to avoid Sarkozy while 57% of Sarkozy voters do it because they support him. Note that usually voter's attitude in the 2nd runoff is to eliminate more than to support.
Besides, this poll gives 51% - 49% in favor of Sarkozy (which clearly means undecided).
How do you pronounce it? Isn't it "Sar-co-zee"? Or did I just butcher that?
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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If France existed in a vacuum, and I was a French citizen, I would vote for Royal. But Im not a French citizen, and France doesnt exist in a vacuum
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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They try to make themselves sound more worldly by pronouncing it in the French, but to me, they only end up sounding neither French, nor worldly. They sound stupid. Which they wouldnt, if they were just honest, and pronounced it as best they could in English (especially since 'Sarkozy' isnt even a French name)
But what is the actual way of pronouncing it? Don't you know? If you don't, then what's the big deal?
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Sarkozy is a Hungarian name, isnt it? So why expectorate all over a journalist by attempting to make it sound like a French name?
nonconformist
Miserable
Shhh...he's French
Masquerouge
Deity
It is. It's pretty straightforward.
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Shhh...he's French
Not really...Is he French enough to beat Royal, who couldnt be more French if she went to school for it?
At this moment, Royal IS France. Sarkozy, at best, is seen as some new and alien France. This is the true strength of Royal.
Raisin Bran
Cereal Killer
Jean-marie Le Pen all the way!
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Nahhh, how would France benefit by moving towards a failed past? Xenophobia and racism are illogical.
Irish Caesar
Yellow Jacket
More straightforward to English speakers than Royal, I would ironically imagine...
Masquerouge
Deity
He he he... Yeah, just think of the Kansas City baseball team: it's exactly not how you pronounce it
kryszcztov
Deity
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Sarkozy will pass a reduced European Constitution at the Parliament, so as to make sure the French don't have a say about it.
Marla : "But krys, the Parliament will be new, so it's like if the French had voted it".
Me : No, the Parliament isn't the people.
Marla : "Ah OK, you think about the proportionnelle. Well, Sarkozy may be in favour of a bit of that."
Me : So what, it still isn't the people.
Marla : "What the heck, many countries did it that way, why not us ?"
Me : Because maybe we want to do it better than the (crappy) rest of them, and because doing it at the Parliament after a failure at a referendum is the sign of a President who doesn't trust his people. And that would really help the French people feel even more distant with the EU.
Sorry, I had to pick someone for my little fiction.
Plato did it many times with my avatar after all...
Marla : "But krys, the Parliament will be new, so it's like if the French had voted it".
Me : No, the Parliament isn't the people.
Marla : "Ah OK, you think about the proportionnelle. Well, Sarkozy may be in favour of a bit of that."
Me : So what, it still isn't the people.
Marla : "What the heck, many countries did it that way, why not us ?"
Me : Because maybe we want to do it better than the (crappy) rest of them, and because doing it at the Parliament after a failure at a referendum is the sign of a President who doesn't trust his people. And that would really help the French people feel even more distant with the EU.
Sorry, I had to pick someone for my little fiction.
Plato did it many times with my avatar after all...
Marla_Singer
United in diversity
Krys, in trying to guess others opinions, we often get off their point. And this specific example just prove it.
The EU constitution is dead. French and Dutch people have voted "no", it required to be unanimously accepted in order to pass, it didn't have. Then my question is simple, what do you want to do ? Don't you believe it would be insulting to ask a second time the same question to French people ? They would answer the same way as the first time.
Unfortunately, the EU is blocked and in this context, it's very difficult to move forward and to elaborate a brand new text. As such, Sarkozy's proposal is rather interesting : We pass through the parliament a smaller treaty, which is not a constitution, in order to unfreeze the EU so that everyone could elaborate freely a brand new constitution. Saying that it is the EU constitution is wrong. That treaty would group only 40 articles out of the 450 articles of the EU constitution, those which have made consensus during the debate on the EU constitution.
Actually kryszcztov, this is exactly the solution Laurent Fabius, leader of the "no" voters, have proposed during the referendum campaign !
Personally, I consider Sarkozy respects better French voters than Royal or Bayrou do... since both want to ask a second time the same question on the same text to people who have already said they reject it.
The EU constitution is dead. French and Dutch people have voted "no", it required to be unanimously accepted in order to pass, it didn't have. Then my question is simple, what do you want to do ? Don't you believe it would be insulting to ask a second time the same question to French people ? They would answer the same way as the first time.
Unfortunately, the EU is blocked and in this context, it's very difficult to move forward and to elaborate a brand new text. As such, Sarkozy's proposal is rather interesting : We pass through the parliament a smaller treaty, which is not a constitution, in order to unfreeze the EU so that everyone could elaborate freely a brand new constitution. Saying that it is the EU constitution is wrong. That treaty would group only 40 articles out of the 450 articles of the EU constitution, those which have made consensus during the debate on the EU constitution.
Actually kryszcztov, this is exactly the solution Laurent Fabius, leader of the "no" voters, have proposed during the referendum campaign !
Personally, I consider Sarkozy respects better French voters than Royal or Bayrou do... since both want to ask a second time the same question on the same text to people who have already said they reject it.
