I somehow don't think you do, either.
I'm sure China loves the Euro-/Western-/Anglo-centric bias of the Civilization games. And the fact that they are consistently represented as a "has-been" civ. I think an ancient Tibet civ would be less controversial than you think, especially since there really aren't any other ways to give that quarter of the world population extra representation besides another leader. And worst case, they could just leave it for a DLC pack that just conveniently isn't sold in China. I'm personally torn on the idea, because any sort of ban would prevent the sort of positive global PR reaching younger Chinese, so maybe they do have to be careful. But I'm not completely ruling it out.
Israel I think is less likely than Tibet, if only because the devs could conveniently make a Khazar civ as an alternative. Although a generic "Hebrew" civ led by Baldwin would be relatively safe, apart from the whole Jerusalem capital thing.
As the Cree, Mapuche, and Scotland have shown, Civ can be more documentary in its approach to history than in previous iterations. As long as they very strictly maintained that these are historical representations of the past, I think they can get away with a lot more than when they were some silly children's wish fulfillment game.
My position on "controversial" civs--particularly those of significant historical and cultural import--is that it isn't the responsibility of players to do the political filtering in online fora that the developers almost certainly read. Our responsibility is to steer public discourse toward ideas that we are most likely to purchase and enjoy; to widen options. The developers can do the political research and self-censoring on their own, without us prematurely limiting their ideas.