Newcomb's Problem

[PutCashIn]

Epic indeed, I got to page 11 befor my brain melted.

I chose both, mostly because I'm poor and in a 'take the money and run without doing any maths' frame of mind, but also because Omega being right 100 previous times doesnt imply anyone actually got 1.001 million clams, the past 100 people may have been predicted to be 'choose both boxes' people.

 

[Integral]

Hey! I remember this thread!

And the twist is that Omega has put a million dollars in box B iff Omega has predicted that you will take only box B.

...I went through a few minutes of elementary probability and game theory, came up confuzzled, and decided to one-box. This is a significant improvement from my purely descriptive post a twenty-odd months ago.

 

[Mise]

I'm still a "Box B only" kinda guy btw. Tbh all this philosophising is a bit... silly... cos, like, $1,000,000 is soooo much more than $1,000 (which I could certainly use but could do without really) that it seems stupid to waste a shot at $1m for an extra $1k.

 

[Darth_Pugwash]

Yeah this thread was epic business... one-boxing for the win.

 

[Catharsis]

Oh you poor, pathetic one-boxers.

When the world economy collapses and we return to a state of nature as Mother Gaia intended, your $1,000,000 will be nothing more than worthless bits of paper, a testament to human greed. You'll have to scavenge for food in this glorious new world too, and what's more, you'll only have one box to hold the meagre rations you manage to find or catch.

And how many boxes will I have?

 

[Ayatollah So]

[...] worthless bits of paper, a testament to human greed. You'll have to scavenge for food in this glorious new world too, and what's more, you'll only have one box to hold the meagre rations you manage to find or catch.

And how many boxes will I have?

Way to think outside the box!

 

[Kennigit]

2nd line
<------------

plus my sig

 

[sophie]

I demand a Box A only option!

 

[sanabas]

The one-boxer justification in the OP makes little sense.

I'm happy enough to believe in some sort of superior alien. But I'm not prepared to believe he's telepathic, in predestination, or anything similar. So I've got no reason to believe the 100 previous correct guesses are anything other than the alien lying to me, or fluke, or the alien using his superior powers to supress the footage of the ~100 wrong guesses. Based on that, I'd have to assume it's a fair game, that the contents of box B are fixed BEFORE I make my choice. In which case, I should choose both, as I get the same box B contents either way, and an extra $1000 bonus for taking box A too.


However, there is a reason to take just one box, and it isn't the expected value bit you have in the OP. If the alien is able to rig a trigger to cause box A to vanish in a puff of smoke the moment you open box B, then the alien can just as easily rig a trigger to cause the million dollars in box B to vanish in a puff of smoke as soon as you open both at once. That guarantees 100% success rate on the predictions.

So, if you think the game is fair, take both. If you think the game is rigged, take just one.

 

[Dachs]

I have no flipping idea why I picked B when I voted in this poll.

 

[Onionsoilder]

I shall only take one box.

Box A!

The alien will be all "WTH mate?!?"

 

[Kennigit]

How does it even matter what he predicts? He predicted what he thought my choice would be, put the money in the boxes, and put them in front of me and left forever. The money in the boxes is based on his prediction of my choice, not my actual choice. The value of the boxes isn't going to change when I make my choice, so I might as well take both.

Lets say he predicted I would choose both boxes, and thus I would get $1,000 if I chose what he predicted. But what if he was wrong, and I chose box B. That leaves me with $0. Box B isn't going to spawn a million dollars just because I chose only it.

Damn straight son.

Anyways, breifly skimming through the 2008 me's posts, I saw someone- scy12 I think- say something that I actually can agree with more (others may have said this in the past, namely maybe mise et. al). I asked if you think taking Box B is the only way possible to get 1,000,000 dollars.

Scy12 said something to the effect of: "No. But I think Box B guarentees one million."

So, I can accept that taking Box B only might be a safety measure (thats what I interpret that as). It is not the choice that maximizes money, but if you're willing to give up a guarenteed free extra $1,000 dollars just to quell suspicions that the game is rigged- although the OP specifically sets up a scenario where the boxes cannot be changed- then I can see that as an option.

Box A is still, 100% without a doubt in my mind, the best option. But considering 1,000 dollars isn't much compared to 1,000,000 and is small enough to not be too hurt if you end up with $0 from taking Box B only, I can see being irrational.

But, I still think ordinary people can predict fairly well what other people would choose. 100/100 doesn't necessarily show great predicting ability.

and Lastl,y I never addressed Perfection's simPerf. From what I remember, here is my response:

I assume sim-me took Both boxes. I would do the same. Then, I'd go out and find sim-me, and seeing such an intelligent and rational man, I'd proceed to ask him out on a date and live happily ever after.

 

[PiMan]

This question would do better with box B having just $2000

 

[Perfection]

This question would do better with box B having just $2000

How would that effect your decision process?

Talking about altered versions of the problem certainly is allowed!

 

[PiMan]

It would actually make it worth the gamble to pick both boxes, because of the probabilities involved, as covered in the first couple of pages and I'm sure ad nauseum on subsequent pages.

 

[Mise]

I agree with PiMan - for an extra $1k it's not worth risking that the alien is wrong / game is rigged / we live in a non-deterministic universe / any other "unknown unknowns". For an extra $999,000, it's worth risking it.

 

[Yeekim]

The one-boxer justification in the OP makes little sense.

I'm happy enough to believe in some sort of superior alien. But I'm not prepared to believe he's telepathic, in predestination, or anything similar. So I've got no reason to believe the 100 previous correct guesses are anything other than the alien lying to me, or fluke, or the alien using his superior powers to supress the footage of the ~100 wrong guesses. Based on that, I'd have to assume it's a fair game, that the contents of box B are fixed BEFORE I make my choice. In which case, I should choose both, as I get the same box B contents either way, and an extra $1000 bonus for taking box A too.


However, there is a reason to take just one box, and it isn't the expected value bit you have in the OP. If the alien is able to rig a trigger to cause box A to vanish in a puff of smoke the moment you open box B, then the alien can just as easily rig a trigger to cause the million dollars in box B to vanish in a puff of smoke as soon as you open both at once. That guarantees 100% success rate on the predictions.

So, if you think the game is fair, take both. If you think the game is rigged, take just one.

Damnit, you stole my reasoning!
I would add that based on the info we have, it makes a lot of sense to suspect the game is rigged. So I´d go for just one box.

 

[Gustave5436]

From a deterministic standpoint, do whatever you're supposed to do. You win either way, and there's no real choice which win you get; it comes down to the specific details of your neural net at the time 'Omega' scans your brain.

 

[Souron]

Even with a deterministic mind, there is a choice. And I'd be happy to explain why ... in another thread.

 

[Darth_Pugwash]

Oh you poor, pathetic one-boxers.

When the world economy collapses and we return to a state of nature as Mother Gaia intended, your $1,000,000 will be nothing more than worthless bits of paper, a testament to human greed. You'll have to scavenge for food in this glorious new world too, and what's more, you'll only have one box to hold the meagre rations you manage to find or catch.

And how many boxes will I have?

Well played, sir, well played indeed.