"The following may well be the most controversial dilemma in the history of decision theory." http://pastie.caboo.se/195189.txt Assume that you're playing the game in the above situation and that the rules have been explained to you, then vote in the poll. The usual positions in the argument are as follows. TWO-BOXER: Spoiler : ONE-BOXER: Spoiler : One-boxers are usually confident that their opinion is correct and that picking two boxes is silly. Two-boxers are usually confident that their opinion is correct and that picking one box is silly. Nonetheless, people tend to be about evenly split on the issue. Let the arguing begin. Which do you pick, and why? Addendum: "iff" in the starting quote means "if and only if".