Obamacare enters Death Spiral

[Kaitzilla]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/17/

Aetna the nation's fourth-largest health insurer, just decided to stop offering plans on Obamacare's exchanges in all but four states in 2017. The firm says that it was losing roughly $300 million per year on these policies. And it projected that its losses would only increase, since the share of covered individuals "in need of high-cost care" was growing, according to CEO Mark Bertolini.

Aetna isn't the only insurer giving up on Obamacare. UnitedHealth, America's biggest insurer, will sell plans in just three states next year, down from 34 this year. Humana will offer coverage in just 156 counties in 2017, 88 percent fewer than this year.


In other words, the insurance "death spiral" has arrived. Obamacare's critics have long predicted that exchange plans' high premiums and deductibles would keep all but the sickest Americans from enrolling. These people would need so much medical care that insurers would lose money no matter how much they raised premiums. Eventually, insurers would have no choice but to pull out.

Oh my!
Those republican operatives at CNBC are obviously insane to draw such a conclusion.


The co-ops are doing fine too.
The remaining 2 of 23 left alive in 2017 will prove it.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/10/the-8-obamacare-co-ops-most-likely-to-fail-this-year/

Eight of the 11 remaining Obamacare health insurance co-ops appear likely to fail this year, according to an analysis of financial documents obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation.

Twelve of the original 23 federally-financed co-ops have already collapsed. The co-op program was funded with $2.5 billion in 2010.

How about premiums?
In 2017 the average will come in around +10%
http://www.newsweek.com/obamacare-premiums-rise-10-percent-2017-490268

Covered California has locked in +13.2% for 2017.
http://norcalrecord.com/stories/510...by-announced-covered-california-rate-increase

Kaiser has very accurate info.
http://kff.org/health-reform/issue-...able-care-acts-health-insurance-marketplaces/





The Obama administration says the Obamacare Marketplaces are on sound footing.
http://khn.org/news/administration-paints-rosy-future-for-obamacare-marketplaces/

The media is treating any potential difficulties with complete seriousness.
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/p...s-ceo-on-whats-next-after-aetnas-exits-215953

THIS IS THURSDAY PULSE — Where the drama of Aetna vs. Obamacare meant your author is just now catching up on this week's real mystery: Ryan Lochte vs. Brazil. Do you think America's favorite runner-up swimmer made the whole thing up, jeah or no? Send tips and tall tales to ddiamond@politico.com or @ddiamond on Twitter.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

All very dramatic.

Now, if true, other than chant gleefully what do you want to do about it?

Conservatives and Republicans all pretend healthcare was "doing just fine until Obama came along," which is about as far from the truth as it is possible to get. You offered no solutions, and when a solution came along you sabotaged it, and if it fails you will cheer. That is among the most disgusting displays of the reality of the conservative movement there has ever been, and probably accounts for why you have lost any possibility of regaining influence and will just waste away. You are the Neros of our time.

 

[Kozmos]

since the share of covered individuals "in need of high-cost care" was growing

Hey, people were sick and dying? Who would have guessed decades of ignoring the issue and saying the 'private sector is efficient' would result in this.

 

[BvBPL]

Someone on this board was trying to tell me that Romneycare has reined in health care cost increases. Where insurers are requesting 27% premium increases, obviously that didn't happen. Romneycare was never going to be a sustainable solution though. It was a compromise born from the inability of the Democrats to come up with a cohesive plan. It was always going to be transitional, No surprise that it is ending.

The problem going forward is that we have no idea what's next. The Democrats have squandered the last eight years by trying to sell up the existing half baked idea rather than laying the groundwork for the next thing. Which means when the time comes to move on from Romneycare, we will be treated to another four months of constant bickering between the democrats. Except this time they will be without Kennedy as a fulcrum. No one can guess what nonsense they will come up with.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Someone on this board was trying to tell me that Romneycare has reined in health care cost increases. Where insurers are requesting 27% premium increases, obviously that didn't happen. Romneycare was never going to be a sustainable solution though. It was a compromise born from the inability of the Democrats to come up with a cohesive plan. It was always going to be transitional, No surprise that it is ending.

The problem going forward is that we have no idea what's next. The Democrats have squandered the last eight years by trying to sell up the existing half baked idea rather than laying the groundwork for the next thing. Which means when the time comes to move on from Romneycare, we will be treated to another four months of constant bickering between the democrats. Except this time they will be without Kennedy as a fulcrum. No one can guess what nonsense they will come up with.

Yet another conservative demonstrating what a bunch of scum the movement has become. "Born from the inability of the Democrats to come up with a cohesive plan" should end with "and the apparent lack of interest from conservatives in even thinking about the problem." "Squandered the last eight years"? What have the conservatives done with the last FIFTY, since one of their own pointed out the problem looming in the distance? NOT THING ONE EXCEPT LOOK FOR A WAY TO BLAME IT ON THE DEMOCRATS.

As I said, this issue will, thankfully, be the death of the conservative movement because it illustrates so clearly that they are about nothing, will do nothing, and that their constant accusations are born of their complete failure as human beings, much less political leaders.

 

[BvBPL]

Yet another conservative demonstrating what a bunch of scum the movement has become. "Born from the inability of the Democrats to come up with a cohesive plan" should end with "and the apparent lack of interest from conservatives in even thinking about the problem." "Squandered the last eight years"? What have the conservatives done with the last FIFTY, since one of their own pointed out the problem looming in the distance? NOT THING ONE EXCEPT LOOK FOR A WAY TO BLAME IT ON THE DEMOCRATS.

There is little reason for myself or others to point out the faults of conservatives on this matter when you do it so aptly. The faults of the Democrats are not so evident and deserve to be addressed. They seem to have everyone thinking they are progressive liberals. That illusion breaks down when you look at corporate welfare programs like Romneycare.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

There is little reason for myself or others to point out the faults of conservatives on this matter when you do it so aptly. The faults of the Democrats are not so evident and deserve to be addressed. They seem to have everyone thinking they are progressive liberals. That illusion breaks down when you look at corporate welfare programs like Romneycare.

There is no illusion about it. The democrats have been about as progressive/liberal as they have been able to get away with while saddled with the anchor of the conservative movement around their necks.

"We have no plan but we have the power to make sure yours fails!" is the motto of the conservative movement, and it has unfortunately held true for decades.

 

[BvBPL]

There is no illusion about it. The democrats have been about as progressive/liberal as they have been able to get away with while saddled with the anchor of the conservative movement around their necks.

the party does little to throw off that fetter. In the interests of being the big tent party, it has for too long been open to blue dogs and other conservative elements. All of that waters down the core of the Kennedy-Johnson liberalism to the point where the party will be represented nationally by the errand girl of Wall Street.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

the party does little to throw off that fetter. In the interests of being the big tent party, it has for too long been open to blue dogs and other conservative elements. All of that waters down the core of the Kennedy-Johnson liberalism to the point where the party will be represented nationally by the errand girl of Wall Street.

Your preference, of course, would be for them to have continued the stand against moderation that lead to the Reagan revolution and allowed conservatives to destroy the economy. Sorry, until the conservative movement is crushed it presents too much of a danger for moderates and liberals to not stand together.

 

[BvBPL]

Ted Cruz, Reagan's standard bearer, is lying in the gutter, beaten and bloodied. Clinton is the conservative candidate this election. The war has been won. Time for the Democrats to tighten up.

 

[danjuno]

More like time for them to pony up on the "progressive" stuff they said they'd do. It's never their fault, even when they had majorities in both house in '09. It's the same as it was with 2000. "Al Gore dindu nuffin wrong, it was all Nader's fault!!!!!11!!!1!"

 

[Dachs]

The reason that Aetna is leaving the ACA marketplace is because of the Obama administration's resistance to a merger between Aetna and Humana. It has nothing to do with costs to the insurer; Aetna's market cap has consistently risen since the passage of the ACA and their stock prices are perfectly fine. If the ACA is "collapsing" - a dubious claim since the number of insured continues to rise - then it has nothing to do with the economics of the program and everything to do with what is in essence corporate blackmail.

Talking about rises in premiums without also comparing them to expected rises without the ACA is lazy at best and dishonest at worst.

 

[BvBPL]

The ACA didn't do much of anything to reduce premium prices. The reduction in premium increases between 2009 and 2015 was because of the economic slowdown, not because of Romneycare. Now that the economy is recovering, rates are rapidly increasing again.

 

[Zkribbler]

There's a bunch of stuff going on here.

Aetna is playing hardball because the feds aren't rubber-stamping its plan for a megamerger, which would decrease competition.

The penalty for not having insurance is too low and thus is failing as a motivating factor.

The feds flim-flammed the profit corridor. The original premise was that profits would be stabilized by requiring overly profitable insurers to turn over their excess to the feds while struggling insurers would be subsidized by the feds. However, when the ratio of overly profitable to under profitable insurer turned out to be about 6:1, the feds declared the profit corridor must be revenue neutral. The insurers who were most hurt by this switch were the new co-ops. They folded, leading to a decrease in competition.

"Covered California has locked in +13.2% for 2017" is a true statement. California voters have already rejected price controls. However, even when these price rises go into effect, the increase over three years is just 7% per annum.

In sum, this isn't a death spiral. This is growing pains. Adjustments have to be made. After the election, whether the GOP will be in a position to continue to block Americans from getting affordable health care remains to be seen.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Ted Cruz, Reagan's standard bearer, is lying in the gutter, beaten and bloodied. Clinton is the conservative candidate this election. The war has been won. Time for the Democrats to tighten up.

Beaten and bloodied, but not yet dead and buried. The zombie of conservative obstruction needs to be put down for good. Until the party of "always vote no, don't even pause to think" loses its grip from top to bottom the liberal/moderate coalition must remain intact.

 

[Lexicus]

My guess is that private insurance is actually entering a death spiral.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

My guess is that private insurance is actually entering a death spiral.

I wouldn't bet on it. Despite all their crying and hand wringing, insurance companies are top notch profit makers. They aren't likely to give up any time soon.

 

[Hygro]

the party does little to throw off that fetter. In the interests of being the big tent party, it has for too long been open to blue dogs and other conservative elements. All of that waters down the core of the Kennedy-Johnson liberalism to the point where the party will be represented nationally by the errand girl of Wall Street.

And that's our democracy. Kick out those party members and they rejoin the Republicans. It's not like they disappear and we get a huge green wing in its place.

 

[Zkribbler]

The ACA didn't do much of anything to reduce premium prices. The reduction in premium increases between 2009 and 2015 was because of the economic slowdown, ...

I thought the official line from the opposition was that, forcing people to buy insurance was going to cause prices to skyrocket.

 

[Leoreth]

Any reason why anyone would seriously name an insurance company after a currently dormant volcano which might unexpectedly blow up at some indeterminate point in the future with disastrous consequences?