Rethinking Greenspan

DNK

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Excerpts from http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/economy/09greenspan.html?pagewanted=1&ref=business
[emphasis added] George Soros, the prominent financier, avoids using the financial contracts known as derivatives “because we don’t really understand how they work.” Felix G. Rohatyn, the investment banker who saved New York from financial catastrophe in the 1970s, described derivatives as potential “hydrogen bombs

And Warren E. Buffett presciently observed five years ago that derivatives were “financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”

. . . .

As the long-serving chairman of the Fed, the nation’s most powerful economic policy maker, Mr. Greenspan preached the transcendent, wealth-creating powers of the market.

A professed libertarian, he counted among his formative influences the novelist Ayn Rand, who portrayed collective power as an evil force set against the enlightened self-interest of individuals. In turn, he showed a resolute faith that those participating in financial markets would act responsibly.

An examination of more than two decades of Mr. Greenspan’s record on financial regulation and derivatives in particular reveals the degree to which he tethered the health of the nation’s economy to that faith.

. . . .

“The sudden failure or abrupt withdrawal from trading of any of these large U.S. dealers could cause liquidity problems in the markets and could also pose risks to others, including federally insured banks and the financial system as a whole,” Charles A. Bowsher, head of the accounting office, said when he testified before Mr. Markey’s committee in 1994. “In some cases intervention has and could result in a financial bailout paid for or guaranteed by taxpayers

. . . .

Mr. Greenspan warned that derivatives could amplify crises because they tied together the fortunes of many seemingly independent institutions. “The very efficiency that is involved here means that if a crisis were to occur, that that crisis is transmitted at a far faster pace and with some greater virulence,” he said.

But he called that possibility “extremely remote,” adding that “risk is part of life.”

Later that year, Mr. Markey introduced a bill requiring greater derivatives regulation. It never passed.

. . . .

In 1997, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal agency that regulates options and futures trading, began exploring derivatives regulation. The commission, then led by a lawyer named Brooksley E. Born, invited comments about how best to oversee certain derivatives.

Ms. Born was concerned that unfettered, opaque trading could “threaten our regulated markets or, indeed, our economy without any federal agency knowing about it,” she said in Congressional testimony. She called for greater disclosure of trades and reserves to cushion against losses.

Ms. Born’s views incited fierce opposition from Mr. Greenspan and Robert E. Rubin, the Treasury secretary then. Treasury lawyers concluded that merely discussing new rules threatened the derivatives market.

. . . .

In November 1999, senior regulators — including Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Rubin — recommended that Congress permanently strip the C.F.T.C. of regulatory authority over derivatives.

Mr. Greenspan, according to lawmakers, then used his prestige to make sure Congress followed through.

. . . .

“You will go down as the greatest chairman in the history of the Federal Reserve Bank,” declared Senator Phil Gramm, the Texas Republican who was chairman of the Senate Banking Committee when Mr. Greenspan appeared there in February 1999.

. . .

Mr. Greenspan said that Wall Street could be trusted. “There is a very fundamental trade-off of what type of economy you wish to have,” he said. “You can have huge amounts of regulation and I will guarantee nothing will go wrong, but nothing will go right either,” he said.

. . . .

“Aren’t you concerned with such a growing concentration of wealth that if one of these huge institutions fails that it will have a horrendous impact on the national and global economy?” asked Representative Bernard Sanders, an independent from Vermont.

“No, I’m not,” Mr. Greenspan replied. “I believe that the general growth in large institutions have occurred in the context of an underlying structure of markets in which many of the larger risks are dramatically — I should say, fully — hedged.”

So, is it fair to say no one told us so? How much blame do you think Greenspan's policies have played in this current crisis in terms of the derivatives market (ignoring the Fed rates issue)? Were Greenspan, Rand, and Rubin correct, or were Soros, Buffet, the GAO, the CFTC, and Rohatyn?
 
I find it ironic, however, that he, a presumably wise and learned man, expected Wall Street to regulate itself. That strikes me as being excessively naive.

Haha, what? Isn't that more or less the centerpiece in American free-market capitalism dogma?
 
Ok, to come back to the OP, I believe that yes, there were people that warned about the crisis, but what matters is that at the time nobody listened to them, and even more everybody obviously thought they were wrong, or we wouldn't have had the crisis in the first place.

You will ALWAYS find people who "predicted" a crisis. Because it's very easy to take the cautious attitude and say "well, this could go wrong".

The irony is that if your warnings are heeded, and corrective measures are taken, and as a result the crisis is avoided... well, you'll never know if there really was a crisis in the first place, right?
 
Haha, what? Isn't that more or less the centerpiece in American free-market capitalism dogma?
Laissez-faire? Yes, I believe so.

Rand was mentioned in the article, Masquerogue. Ctr-F it if you can't see it in the text there. A "formative influence" on Greenspan.

What I found "funny" (depressingly ironically so) was a bit I don't think I quoted: "In his Georgetown speech, he entertained no talk of regulation, describing the financial turmoil as the failure of Wall Street to behave honorably."

Yeah, imagine that, Wall Street acting on greed rather than "honor". Who'd have thunk it? It was like a lot of the financial business was run by yahoos out to make money as quickly as possible or something...

Edit (to above): Soros, Buffet, the GAO, and the commission set up to oversee derivatives aren't just random people. You really can't find a more comprehensive list of people we should have listened to. Maybe if Jesus, another Fed chairman, and Einstein were on the list...
 
Yes it is.

But what I meant was that he expected businessmen to behave honorably, something businessmen are not known for doing.

But thank you for further reinforcing my point.

Ah, sorry, its late over here, should get some sleep. :)
 
I find it ironic, however, that he, a presumably wise and learned man, expected Wall Street to regulate itself. That strikes me as being excessively naive.

Inteligence and education (not to be mistaken with wisdom) don't make people immune to superstition or ideology.
Some people just want to believe in something.
 
Anyone could see Greenspan for the fraud he was when he cut rates to the point he did almost 8 years ago.
 
Laissez-faire? Yes, I believe so.

Rand was mentioned in the article, Masquerogue. Ctr-F it if you can't see it in the text there. A "formative influence" on Greenspan.

I know. I still don't understand how she's relevant in the article (maybe I should have made that clearer in my post)


Edit (to above): Soros, Buffet, the GAO, and the commission set up to oversee derivatives aren't just random people. You really can't find a more comprehensive list of people we should have listened to. Maybe if Jesus, another Fed chairman, and Einstein were on the list...

But you won't know they're right until the crisis hit!
 
Since it's impossible to know whether anyone will be right, shall we just do anything we want?
 
And you agree with it?
 
Ok, to come back to the OP, I believe that yes, there were people that warned about the crisis, but what matters is that at the time nobody listened to them, and even more everybody obviously thought they were wrong, or we wouldn't have had the crisis in the first place.

You will ALWAYS find people who "predicted" a crisis. Because it's very easy to take the cautious attitude and say "well, this could go wrong".

The irony is that if your warnings are heeded, and corrective measures are taken, and as a result the crisis is avoided... well, you'll never know if there really was a crisis in the first place, right?

Since it's impossible to know whether anyone will be right, shall we just do anything we want?

Both of you should know the answer to that:

a planned economy.

:)
 
We should start with a regulated one. I don't know if we'll ever get to planned ;)
 
Remember though, Soros and Buffet have self serving interests that revolve around the stock market. They'd have to give up accessing and using that if they want to be part of a solution.
 
And you agree with it?

No, not really. I believe it was not a good idea to lessen regulation. But all I'm saying is that it's a bit unfair to bash on Greenspan AFTER the crisis, when everybody was giving him nothing but high praises when everything was apparently fine. I mean, I even read some French articles praising his work :lol:

Both of you should know the answer to that:

a planned economy.

:)


We should start with a regulated one. I don't know if we'll ever get to planned ;)

Don't try to teach a French dude about regulated economies :)
 
It's well known that Greenspan is an Objectivist.
 
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