[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine--Act 3: Ride of the Valkyries

[Ziggy Stardust]

Mariupol deportations gaining pace - city official

People are being deported from Mariupol to other Russian-held territory at a faster and faster rate, according to a mayoral adviser in the fallen port city.

Petro Andryushchenko wrote on the Telegram app that 313 Mariupol residents were taken away to a so-called "filtration camp" in Russian-occupied Bezimenne on Saturday. 55 of them were children.

Andryushchenko said many of those being taken to camps were later being sent to Russia itself.

The BBC has not been able confirmed the claims, and Russia has previously denied any forced deportations.

Mariupol is now under total Russian control after its last defenders surrendered at an industrial plant on Friday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61518209

I know this one. They're just rescuing these people. It's not how it looks.

 

[red_elk]

It is "The BBC has not been able to confirm the claims, but will post everything from pro-Ukrainian twitter accounts anyway"

 

[Broken_Erika]

Well, it would make sense to get people out of there, the city will need massive reconstruction before it's livable again.

 

[red_elk]

In case anyone is interested, few recent blog posts from a volunteer delivering humanitarian aid to Mariupol and Donbass in general. Use auto-translate.

https://littlehirosima.livejournal.com/556901.html
https://littlehirosima.livejournal.com/557120.html

 

[thetrooper]

Little Hiroshima... fitting name wrt Mariupol.

 

[FriendlyFire]

The overall effect is obviously negative, and not only for Russia. As for good sides, it creates stronger incentives for development of semiconductor and other high-tech sectors of economy. Increases trade with BRICS and other more friendly partners. Also, as all viable sanctions are in place, the economic leverage of the West against Russia is pretty much depleted.

Understands this work boths ways for sanctions hurting
But then says Russia will develop its own semiconductors (lol), might as well say that EU will develop its own Energy

My dear Ivan things can always get worse

 

[Zardnaar]

The technological side to non-cooperation is irrelevant: the future is China and Asia in general: technological know-how always follows production. And production has been mostly outsourced from where it was during the 20th century. We're the healthy heirs spending away the inheritance. With this war and the sanctions gamble, more production is going to be shut down in Europe because "uncompetitive". Loss of cheap energy, loss of other cheap inputs, loss of markets, the closing at the EU's borders of the belt-and-road thing where the EU initially tried to remain between the US and China benefiting from links and trade to both. Combine that with the blind faith in "markets", it's a recipe for de-industrializing what remained. "creative industries" don't produce necessary things. Instead they produce scams like trading of monkey pictures... or its predecessors, trading of "intellectual property", another scam.

The rest of Eurasia will continue to integrate into the world's largest market. Europe is backing itself into being indeed a backwater, beholden to the US. And increasingly dragged by the americans into their own desperate hanging-on to the island chains of east Asia - NATO on the Pacific, good luck with that. As strategy this is suicidal.

The scientific side - is science going to be conducted in top-secret labs? No, not yet at least. We'll have a cold war like that if the dumb path continue to be trodden. But this time the "first world" no longer has empires, no longer controls most of the world, not most of the population and resources. Europe still owned Africa, the Middle East and South Asia when the previous cold war started. No more. This time we're the ones closing to the big wide world. The ones lagging behind. All those other places are no longer forced to take orders from european capitals. Or from Washington. How well will the threats to the former "third world" to get in line with sanctions go after the promised proxy wear for bleeding Russia ends with a russian victory?
The US's own Pavda is already admitting defeat, did you notice? It took a russian here, @red_elk, to mention it.

Freedom of movement. Oh goodie, we get to enjoy multiple epidemics out of control because "freedom of movement" within the shrinking block prevents the only working public health measures. While the others integrate smartly, selectively and with controls. Convenience of travel has a price. Will you be grateful of that as you die muck younger than your father's generation? In this Russia and its vassals are playing as dumb as the rest of Europe. But they will probably get on with China's strategy, border controls are a return to old form that this splitting of waters makes easier. We, we are on the dumb and won't learn block.



Compare Russia's revenues from hydrocarbons through January, February, March, April 2022. And compare to 2021 for good measure. Can you show us here with actual numbers where has Russia been losing revenues?
Or is it, like the imminent collapse of the russian army, in the eternal event horizon of your desires?
In before you claim that "numbers are fake" because they don't support your faith, you could also point to exchange rates crashing. The ruble must have sunk if income from exports was lost. Right?

You lapped up all the propaganda. You still believe this is going well - evidence-free, just because the media tells you so. Ukraine's army is collapsing, Europe is effectively disarming to support a losing war there, committing to a huge rearmament bill even as it falls back on "austerity" for its population, and leading its energy-intensive industries to bankruptcy.
Over the next few months you will get to watch the propagandists executing a U turn, too late and too clumsily. And if you are as dumb as they think you are, you will be parroting new lines by year's end and forget the contradictions. And wonder how did the sky fall on you. Except you won't be so dumb. Most people won't, they will remember. Leading to political collapse on top or all else.
Our glorious leaders are used to lying their way out of "crisis" while the population suffers and endures. Any of us who remember the 2008 crisis know that. Problem is, this time reality will be too much to paper over with propaganda for the plebs, the crisis too deep to blame them and their "profligate ways". Only way to end it quick enough: get that cheap energy back. And food.
I think the russians are fed up with how they were treated and their desired end state for this conflict is now no less than breaking the EU, and the crisis already brewed is large enough for that - they can do it if they're set on that. But it will cause a lot of harm here in western Europe. And even more in central. The path to that is political turmoil, a natural consequence of crisis of energy, inflation, employment, food. They just have to refuse accepting to renew trade on a large scale before the consequences of all this disruption hit home here. Or perhaps not, their goal is to pull the EU out of the US orbit. Unlikely though. How would it go?

The EU's most relevant countries were not on with the stupid plans hatched in Washington to militarily and use Ukraine. Hence the famous "fudge the EU" comment from Nuland back in 2014. Hence the Minsk process, and the attempts at diplomacy. But when things came to a head with the russian invasion, weak governments fell into line with the Zelensky adulation, with the sanctions playbook (which the US exempts itself from doing), in short with self-flogging as a means of punishing others. Crazy. They should have opposed any military solution, any "help" or "sanctions" to either party, and demanded a diplomatic solution. Isolating Ukraine if necessary to compel its government to negotiate, preferably along the ideal of implementing the Minsk agreement. At that point it was the only way to preserve Ukraine itself, and Europe in general, from the crazy plan to use and dump it. Unfortunately apart from Macron (oh, and Orban the unholy...) there were no adults in the room in european capitals.

I blame this also on decades of allowing the continental media to wither into copy-paste outfits taking "news" from anglo media. The UK got its revenge from how it was treated over brexit, and cheaply at that. It'll be a Pyrric victory but the people on charge there don't expect to be on the suffering side, and will get their kicks from pulling down the continentals.

And even trying to explain this is too much effort spent here. What for. I increasingly get why @r16 has that telegraphic style...

One last think before taking some more days off, @Remorseless1 while you look at numbers do look at this piece, and then try to figure out how much it will cost monthly to just keep Ukraine's government barely running. And, politically, who is going to finance it going forward after this bill.
Either the pea-brained idiots who conceived of arming and using Ukraine were as surprised* as I was when Russia decide to call the whole think and invade, didn't plan for that. Or they were so bad at strategy that they didn't even consider what would be necessary to sustain a proxy war this big. It's unsustainable, unwinnable.
*In my defense I would never gamble with a country like they did.

Long range forecast for China are terrible.

Their population is looking at halving by 2050 -70, they've lost the edge for cheap manufacturing and their economy is a giant debt fueled bubble worse than the USA.

Some forcasts are saying it's basically all over for China by 2030 and it's all downhill from there.

 

[Gorbles]

In case anyone is interested, few recent blog posts from a volunteer delivering humanitarian aid to Mariupol and Donbass in general. Use auto-translate.

https://littlehirosima.livejournal.com/556901.html
https://littlehirosima.livejournal.com/557120.html

It's hard to take this in good faith considering your criticism of "pro-Ukraine twitter accounts". Are these not pro-Russian blog posts?

If we accept these on merit, why can't the same be done for sources you don't believe in / agree with?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Long range forecast for China are terrible.

Their population is looking at halving by 2050 -70, they've lost the edge for cheap manufacturing and their economy is a giant debt fueled bubble worse than the USA.

Some forcasts are saying it's basically all over for China by 2030 and it's all downhill from there.

Any chance of a link or two to substantiate your prophecy of doom for China?

 

[Zardnaar]

Any chance of a link or two to substantiate your prophecy of doom for China?

Multiple reports/news. Evergrande is the most well known.

Google China debt bubble (property) or China demographics.

Basically it's related to the One Child policy. China's age demographic pyramid is similar to Russia's.

Unlike the west there's minimal immigration.

And the Chinese economic figures are also unreliable idk if the Chinese government has access to real figures or if real figures even exist.

 

[Zardnaar]

Kiwi YouTuber in Ukraine.

 

[EnglishEdward]

@ Zardnaar

I understand that the Chinese One child policy has and is being very much relaxed.

Automation means that one simply doesn't require as many workers to get the same production.
And as the price of Chinese labour rises, Chinese industry will merely automate more.

And as for the housing bubble, most other countries not devastated by poverty or war also have a housing bubble.

I rather reckon that the problems that China will face, climate change and the exhaustion of unpolluted top soil
and aquifers for irrigation etc, are not going to be very dissimilar to what most of the rest of the world will have.

I suspect that western forecasts of doom for China are a desperate attempt not to admit that China is taking the lead.

 

[Verbose]

Long range forecast for China are terrible.

Their population is looking at halving by 2050 -70, they've lost the edge for cheap manufacturing and their economy is a giant debt fueled bubble worse than the USA.

Some forcasts are saying it's basically all over for China by 2030 and it's all downhill from there.

The Chinese Covid policy is playing merry hell with China at the mo. Things could look up for China, if it is the beginning of the end for Xi, and the CCP possibly, after all. Something's gotta give...

To what extent that kind of dramatic changes in China might help or hinder Russia, who knows. So far Xi and Putin are professed best buds, and still it has not materialized in great help for Russia so far.

 

[Verbose]

Any chance of a link or two to substantiate your prophecy of doom for China?

Frankly, regardless of links, the current political system. The concentration of power to the top and lack of accountability will strangle China in its present form. There are of course ways to get out of that, but...

 

[Kupe Navigator]

@ Zardnaar

I understand that the Chinese One child policy has and is being very much relaxed.

Automation means that one simply doesn't require as many workers to get the same production.
And as the price of Chinese labour rises, Chinese industry will merely automate more.

And as for the housing bubble, most other countries not devastated by poverty or war also have a housing bubble.

I rather reckon that the problems that China will face, climate change and the exhaustion of unpolluted top soil
and aquifers for irrigation etc, are not going to be very dissimilar to what most of the rest of the world will have.

I suspect that western forecasts of doom for China are a desperate attempt not to admit that China is taking the lead.

Here is one reason. Unlike US China doesn't necessary have close allies. Who are allies that China can rely on?

 

[keli]

Has this been posted?

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia...roduce-cars-without-airbags-the-moscow-times/

Sanctions obviously don't work. I'm glad red elk has not experienced any inflation and can still access all kinds of Western goods.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Here is one reason. Unlike US China doesn't necessary have close allies. Who are allies that China can rely on?

That is a change of topic from economics to military alliances, no matter.

I'd guess that China can rely on Myanmar, North Korea and Russia.
But China is not at war now, so it does not matter much at the moment.

Has this been posted?

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia...roduce-cars-without-airbags-the-moscow-times/

Sanctions obviously don't work. I'm glad red elk has not experienced any inflation and can still access all kinds of Western goods.

So what. The cars my father drove me in and the cars I used to drive didn't have airbags.
And it also seems that they are no longer paying for emissions cheating technology.

That doesn't kill the Russia economy.

According to that link this relaxation lasts until until February 1, 2023.
The question is, will the relaxation be extended or will they have
alternatively sourced or reverse engineered the technology by then.
I suspect that it will take longer than that, and primarily because
the priority will be given to military vehicles.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: This thread is not about the Chinese economy. Please start a separate thread if you wish to discuss China's economy. Back to topic please.

 

[innonimatu]

Make your own conclusions as to what the Russians are doing to Ukraine.
To me, this is what genocide + a premeditated famine looks like.

I do make my own conclusions: you're regurgitating here lies and more lies. Ukraine is hurriedly exporting wheat by the trainload using its remaining diesel. Someone is pocketing the money for emptying the silos. It isn't the russians. Pwerhaps it's to pay for the "generous gifts" of western weapons?

Western governments have been complaining of the "russian blockade" preventing wheat exports from Ukraine. Which is another lie, it wasn't Russia that mined all the harbours remaining to Ukraine, it was the ukranian military. They were also the mines who set adrift dozens of miens, thus preventing any sane captain of a commercial ship from approaching. During late March and April that was becoming a problem even for other coastal states in the black sea. Fortunately Ukraine seems to have run out of sea mines to deploy. And no one is offering them more.

Phony narrative after phony narrative. How come the russians are both causing a hunger inside Ukraine and blocking food exports from Ukraine?
The Ukranian government's stance of denial about its own defeat will cause all kinds of problems, that much is obvious. But it's not part of a any "genocide" any more than the germans were genocided while losing WW2.

 

[Snowygerry]

(...)
Phony narrative after phony narrative. How come the russians are both causing a hunger inside Ukraine and blocking food exports from Ukraine?

Only ones reported hungry in Ukraine were Russian soldiers, reduced to plundering as if it was the 16th century again, and of course Ukrainian citizens blockaded by the Russian army.

If they just go home and mind their own business there would be no problem anywhere.