[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: The 7th Thread Itch; scratch it here!

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I ignore people for many reasons, especially when they keep trying to go back in time to shoot Putin with their ethics guns.

The final settlement? Who knows. Ask Mystic Meg for the answer you want.
My guess for Ukraine: things will be worse than yesterday, but better than tomorrow.

Maybe back to the Iron Curtain days, but this time it will probably be an "Iron Wall", with little holes through which some EU countries can get oil and gas. Until Russia is able to supply their "favored nations" and it can turn off the spigots to the nations whose pips it wants to politically and economically squeeze. And other countries will try to put the squeeze on Russia. So business as usual there.

Ethics guns for the ethics soirées.
Man never change, you're actually quite charming and funny in your own peculiar way. Please do more of that: exposing your own world view and speculating about the war's outcomes. It's much more entertaining than just quoting some Marco Rubio's platitudes. And it will surely be better at driving engagement.
I'll follow the recommendation and ask Mystic Meg!
 
You are rightfully critical of Western propaganda, but seem to completely fall for Russian propaganda. This is the classic trap for the enlightened contrarian. You make a lot of claims that seem to have no basis in truth. I'd be curious about your evidence. But I presume like most others you will disappear when asked to articulate your arguments.
You make the mistake of bi-polar thinking.

What were the efforts to de-Russify Ukraine? How is that in any way a justification for the invasion that caused hundreds of thousands to die and millions to suffer?
I'm not aware of any violent policy from the Ukrainian government against its Russian-speaking citizens. They only fought against an armed insurgency in the Donbass propped by Russia. Any sovereign country would do that.
There were some language policies to promote Ukrainian. Is that a reason to invade?
I come from a place that promotes its own language and discriminates legally against the use of English in the public sphere. Is that also a justification for an invasion?
If you think the invasion was a reaction to "de-Russification" efforts by Ukraine, you should ask yourself who caused the killing and maiming of hundreds of thousands of Russian speakers through its invasion? Russia's actions have done much more to eliminate Russian speakers in Ukraine than Ukraine ever did in its history.
Their elections started going towards pro-Russian rather than pro-EU candidates so they responded by clamping down on anything Russian even to a degree banning the use of the language, then when the ethnically Russians started resisting the violence reached a point where the military was shelling Russian areas which caused the reactive violence from the Russians to escalate and eventually Russia was pulled into what had since at least 2014 been a civil war no one was yet paying attention to.

There does not have to be a public policy for anything, verbal orders are enough for something to be practical policy. The first step of ethnic cleansing if you are not prepared to do outright genocide is to eliminate the language and replace the souls of the people with a new one in your own image by forcing your language on them. There is a difference between promoting a language and attempting to eradicate another, even if they did not try to do this it was interpreted by the Russian Ukrainians as such. And I speak as someone who's great grandparents went through the same process where the then overlord attempted to replace their language in order to replace their identity.... and the current overlord is using low intensity strategies to currently do it but at least this one is more incompetent than the previous one and it too will fail.

There is a lot of he said she said here but the fact is Russia could never have gotten involved if Ukraine did not overstep and target civilians in some way. The invasion was merely the tail end of a decade long process. Yes you can make the argument that more Russians have died because of the war but you come up against arguments that they either merely sped up the process and that the Ukrainians are to blame in some way or another.... IMO though the Russians are simply guilty of stubborn incompetence here where they intended for a police action which spiraled into a war because of Western interference and they are simply too caught in the grip of history to admit they are not in full control. They don't in their minds have any way out other than through.... and they will blame Ukraine (with a degree of truth) for the excess deaths. I might be in ignorance about something but it stuns me that they did not do mass evacuations of the disputed areas unless they want to use them as human shields or something. It just seems blatantly stupid to still do it this way.

What was the inevitable humiliation of Russia that needed to be averted by war?
If anything the war itself has been a colossal humiliation for Russia. It took them two years to push past the suburbs of Donetsk. They suffered probably hundreds of thousands of casualties. The Black Sea Fleet got humiliated. And they significantly worsened their diplomatic relations with important economic partners.
How had Putin no choice? What would have happened if he didn't invade?
Russia had everything to start with. The largest landmass on Earth. Plenty of natural resources. And an enviable position between the world's centers of productions and centers of consumption. It doesn't seem like they were on the verge of some irreversible catastrophe, except maybe through the eyes of a megalomaniac or a paranoiac.
You make the mistake of thinking this is perceived as a war on Ukraine when it's a defensive war against the Western powers which seek to make Russia a client state. This is true both on the ground and in leadership... they don't even see Ukraine as the real enemy they are fighting it's just a puppet in the second phase of the cold war or cold war 2.0... and this is quite obviously true. This is not about a mere 10 years of humiliation for the Russians but about a century of humiliation the same way as it is for China only there it's multiple centuries they are sore about.... it's not about either the land or the resources, that's just a very welcome bonus. It does not help though that the age old pattern of the Slavs wanting to separate from the Russians with the Russians wanting to re-integrate them is repeating, this is something that has been going on for many centuries of to and fro. Ukraine is a kind of schizophrenic remnant of the original rulers of what is now Russia in many ways.

How do you define Nazism? What characteristics of Nazism did the Kyiv government have? How many of these characteristics does the Russian government have?
I don't see any of the main characteristics Nazism in Zelensky's governemnt (irredentism and expansionism, totalitarianism, virulent anti-semitism and anti-liberalsm). If anything Russia's regime is closer to that, but I would never qualify it as Nazi either. Using this term dishonestly is an insult to all the real victims of Nazism. The only authoritian policies of the Ukrainian state came after and as a reaction the invasion itself, so they cannot be used as a justification.
Doesn't it seem odd to describe as Nazi a multiparty democracy electing a Jewish Russian-speaking president?
I guess you'll say it's just an elaborate ploy. But I suggest you try to think a bit more.
The Jew thing is a red herring. All that is needed for Nazism is any kind of National Socialism (Socialism being the state being in control of society at a granular level) combined with a "foreign" boogyman within your borders on which you can blame everything wrong with the world.... simple. Jews just happened to be the one the Germans blamed. There is nothing stopping Jews from being Nazi's.... in their case their boogeyman is the Arabs. In the case of Ukraine the boogeyman is the Russians.

In what credible way did this country, Ukraine, that you viciously describe as poor and corrupt, pose an existential threat to Russia? (The largest country on this planet with the largest nuclear arsenal...)
You guys always invoke this existential threat, but you never explain it because you know it doesn't make sense.
The Russian public might have believed it if they listened to enough propaganda but this does not make it true in any way.
It didn't, it posed a thread to Russians in Ukraine. The same justification incidentally that led to the war of Texan independence which drew American military aid. The moment Ukraine took the bait and made it about fighting the ethnically Russian they gave Russia a Cassius Belli on a silver platter.

Nobody says that everything is either good or bad. You're the one using this as a straw man to discredit your opponents. But there are things in life that are bad. Imperialism or expansionism, and the wars and suffering that ensue, are bad, wheter they come from NATO or Russia. This is very easy to say for anybody with moral principles. People can have moral principles (ascribing a moral value to actions) without necessarily engaging in dichotomous black-and-white thiking as you seem to suggest. This might sound utopian to the most cynical among us, but it's just the most basic common sense. Saying that the invasion was wrong does not mean that one thinks that NATO is a a faultless force of good. There is no link between the two. It is your post, by making this assumption, that engages in black-and-white thinking and thus completely lacks nuance.
The mistake is to place moral weight on the invasion as if it happened in isolation or even is the most important part of the story. Morals have nothing to do with it other than as propaganda.

Overall your message appears confused. You seem to have internalized different propaganda messages that end up contradictory. One one hand, you say Russia invaded because Ukraine was National Socialist. On the other, Ukraine is a pet-project of the West that tries to transform it into a decadent homosexual liberal hellhole. Despite what's being said by the third-rate propaganda you might have consumed online, national socialism and liberalism are opposed ideologies. A cursory reading of any encycopledia would tell you.

Maybe next time, instead of this confused mess, try to chose just one hateful propaganda message and stick with it? It would have a bit more credibility.
No I never said Ukraine is a Nazi state, it has Nazi elements it uses to it's advantage.... or did at least until it backfired.

Ukraine is a corrupt sh-hole where the most powerful or wealthy people get their own way and has been spiraling into depravity imported from the West for a long time now.... just as my own country has incidentally. This has nothing to do with ideology it's about influence and usefulness. I don't hate them, I pity them, I know what they did to themselves because I live it first hand only in a different way. It's about mafia factions vying for turf while having political fronts representing them in government... or the political factions having crime syndicates greasing their wheels. Ukraine is not so much a pet project as a convenient proxy and slush fund for wealthy Western politicians.... I dunno if the biolabs thing has any validity but if true yes there is that threat too.... what would your country do if it believed a hostile force operated biolabs on it's border?

As for the supposed ideologies.... in the West the Liberals are not actually Liberal but by now open Leftists and the Libertarians are crypto fascists who show their true colours as soon as you present half a threat to them.... no one actually is what they pretend to be.
 
I ignore people for many reasons, especially when they keep trying to go back in time to shoot Putin with their ethics guns.

The final settlement? Who knows. Ask Mystic Meg for the answer you want.
My guess for Ukraine: things will be worse than yesterday, but better than tomorrow.

Maybe back to the Iron Curtain days, but this time it will probably be an "Iron Wall", with little holes through which some EU countries can get oil and gas. Until Russia is able to supply their "favored nations" and it can turn off the spigots to the nations whose pips it wants to politically and economically squeeze. And other countries will try to put the squeeze on Russia. So business as usual there.
My money is on Russia and China (and any surrounding territory they can secure into their sphere of influence) at some point descending into an isolationist Technocratic hellscape before the end of the century. They tried playing the game, found it was rigged against them.... and are plotting their own thing in response rather than submit.

It could be that a lot of this war is part of securing farmland for this project but this is all just my speculation. One thing I do feel in my bones though is anyone actually Christian or otherwise unwilling to follow the state religion whatever it is wont be safe for very long in either the East or West.
 
"If you don’t like gay people, they tell you all Ukrainians are gays. If you don’t like Nazis, they tell you all Ukrainians are Nazis. If you do like Nazis, they tell you all Ukrainians are Jews"
The real fun starts when it's kinda true or at least believable though.... a case of digging your own grave and blaming the guy that fills it up over you.

Yes it's a confused mess with all sorts of populism, the problem is how people want to oversimplify complex issues.
 
My money is on Russia and China (and any surrounding territory they can secure into their sphere of influence) at some point descending into an isolationist Technocratic hellscape before the end of the century. They tried playing the game, found it was rigged against them.... and are plotting their own thing in response rather than submit.

It could be that a lot of this war is part of securing farmland for this project but this is all just my speculation. One thing I do feel in my bones though is anyone actually Christian or otherwise unwilling to follow the state religion whatever it is wont be safe for very long in either the East or West.
I can't get astrology charts that far into the future. Probably paywalled anyway. :)
Maybe Zelenskyy will continue as president.
Maybe the recently formed "Triumvirate" of Klitschko, Poroshenko and Zaluzhny will take control.

Ne mano cirkas, ne mano beždžionės. (Not my circus, not my monkeys.)
 
I can't get astrology charts that far into the future. Probably paywalled anyway. :)
Maybe Zelenskyy will continue as president.
Maybe the recently formed "Triumvirate" of Klitschko, Poroshenko and Zaluzhny will take control.
I am going by a projection of past patterns over current rhetoric and other developments. A lot can happen but my projection seems most likely to me.

Regarding Ukraine specifically it's most likely that Russia gets the Russian parts while the rest is either decimated or has a puppet in place, one way or another Russia will not consent to leave unless it has some sort of solid assurance that no threat from NATO will come through Ukraine.... no matter how drastic they have to act. No one wants to actually see Russia desperate they just think they do. I have even at one point speculated that they could create a sort of radioactive cordon to dissuade mass enemy land invasion but dunno if they will be able to pull that off if they actually get that desperate.... but at the same time radioactivity dissipates so quickly it wont be anything other than a short term strategy and they could most likely poison their own lands because of wind currents etc....

The main direct threat that Ukraine poses Russia itself is as a highway of potential foreign invasion. At worst Russia will for the foreseeable future be extremely sensitive to any kind of foreign activity in Ukraine which will lead to it constantly operating militarily in it. The irony is they are doing the same thing Israel has been doing since the start only with a lot less finesse and intelligence.... one shudders to think what will happen if Russia is at some point surrounded by hostile states.
 
Or a confused mess with all sorts of conspiracy theories and propaganda narratives where Ukraine is simultaneously a Nazi state and a decadent gay state.
The funny thing is nothing precludes both being true at the same time.... Gay Nazi's blaming straight white Christian males for everything wrong with the world....
 
Ok, since we are back to posting war porn again, a couple recent updates
Caesar howitzer:
Spoiler :


Abrams:
Spoiler :

 
You make the mistake of bi-polar thinking.


Their elections started going towards pro-Russian rather than pro-EU candidates so they responded by clamping down on anything Russian even to a degree banning the use of the language, then when the ethnically Russians started resisting the violence reached a point where the military was shelling Russian areas which caused the reactive violence from the Russians to escalate and eventually Russia was pulled into what had since at least 2014 been a civil war no one was yet paying attention to.

There does not have to be a public policy for anything, verbal orders are enough for something to be practical policy. The first step of ethnic cleansing if you are not prepared to do outright genocide is to eliminate the language and replace the souls of the people with a new one in your own image by forcing your language on them. There is a difference between promoting a language and attempting to eradicate another, even if they did not try to do this it was interpreted by the Russian Ukrainians as such. And I speak as someone who's great grandparents went through the same process where the then overlord attempted to replace their language in order to replace their identity.... and the current overlord is using low intensity strategies to currently do it but at least this one is more incompetent than the previous one and it too will fail.

There is a lot of he said she said here but the fact is Russia could never have gotten involved if Ukraine did not overstep and target civilians in some way. The invasion was merely the tail end of a decade long process. Yes you can make the argument that more Russians have died because of the war but you come up against arguments that they either merely sped up the process and that the Ukrainians are to blame in some way or another.... IMO though the Russians are simply guilty of stubborn incompetence here where they intended for a police action which spiraled into a war because of Western interference and they are simply too caught in the grip of history to admit they are not in full control. They don't in their minds have any way out other than through.... and they will blame Ukraine (with a degree of truth) for the excess deaths. I might be in ignorance about something but it stuns me that they did not do mass evacuations of the disputed areas unless they want to use them as human shields or something. It just seems blatantly stupid to still do it this way.


You make the mistake of thinking this is perceived as a war on Ukraine when it's a defensive war against the Western powers which seek to make Russia a client state. This is true both on the ground and in leadership... they don't even see Ukraine as the real enemy they are fighting it's just a puppet in the second phase of the cold war or cold war 2.0... and this is quite obviously true. This is not about a mere 10 years of humiliation for the Russians but about a century of humiliation the same way as it is for China only there it's multiple centuries they are sore about.... it's not about either the land or the resources, that's just a very welcome bonus. It does not help though that the age old pattern of the Slavs wanting to separate from the Russians with the Russians wanting to re-integrate them is repeating, this is something that has been going on for many centuries of to and fro. Ukraine is a kind of schizophrenic remnant of the original rulers of what is now Russia in many ways.


The Jew thing is a red herring. All that is needed for Nazism is any kind of National Socialism (Socialism being the state being in control of society at a granular level) combined with a "foreign" boogyman within your borders on which you can blame everything wrong with the world.... simple. Jews just happened to be the one the Germans blamed. There is nothing stopping Jews from being Nazi's.... in their case their boogeyman is the Arabs. In the case of Ukraine the boogeyman is the Russians.


It didn't, it posed a thread to Russians in Ukraine. The same justification incidentally that led to the war of Texan independence which drew American military aid. The moment Ukraine took the bait and made it about fighting the ethnically Russian they gave Russia a Cassius Belli on a silver platter.


The mistake is to place moral weight on the invasion as if it happened in isolation or even is the most important part of the story. Morals have nothing to do with it other than as propaganda.


No I never said Ukraine is a Nazi state, it has Nazi elements it uses to it's advantage.... or did at least until it backfired.

Ukraine is a corrupt sh-hole where the most powerful or wealthy people get their own way and has been spiraling into depravity imported from the West for a long time now.... just as my own country has incidentally. This has nothing to do with ideology it's about influence and usefulness. I don't hate them, I pity them, I know what they did to themselves because I live it first hand only in a different way. It's about mafia factions vying for turf while having political fronts representing them in government... or the political factions having crime syndicates greasing their wheels. Ukraine is not so much a pet project as a convenient proxy and slush fund for wealthy Western politicians.... I dunno if the biolabs thing has any validity but if true yes there is that threat too.... what would your country do if it believed a hostile force operated biolabs on it's border?

As for the supposed ideologies.... in the West the Liberals are not actually Liberal but by now open Leftists and the Libertarians are crypto fascists who show their true colours as soon as you present half a threat to them.... no one actually is what they pretend to be.

Apparently we're not supposed to discuss the causes of the war. So I won't dwell on this for too long.

But I really recommend you read more about Ukraine's language laws. Russian was never banned.
And a majority of Russian speakers in Ukraine didn't want to be invaded to be saved from tyranny.
Polls would show this. Or just ask the Ukrainian in this thread.

I'd also recommend you think more about the impact of language laws. Take the example of Quebec in Canada. It has had very strict laws limiting the use of English (or promoting French) for about 50 years. However, there still has been no genocide against English speakers and there is no sign of one yet. English is alive and well, it's still spoken and used by many people and institutions.

You engage in the slippery slope fallacy. You predict genocidal consequences because of some mild language laws. This type of hysterical reaction was sometimes seen in Quebec too, but it has obviously been shown to be completely false. It wouldn't be so bad if you wouldn't then use this fallacy to justify the invasion and all the suffering it caused.

Btw, maybe you didn't follow the Donbass war form 2014, but plenty of us did. There was no gratuitous shelling of Russian speakers. I really suggest you go back and read about it. All areas of the countries were mostly peaceful post-Maidan. Only in the Donbass, where Russia propped separatists with weapons, soldiers, money and intelligence did a war emerge. And indeed from that war there has been some collateral damage on both sides. Some units might have purposefully targeted purely civilian areas, we can speculate. But there's been no evidence of a coordinated policy to target civilians. And even if there was, it would have occured after Russia sent its little green men into Crimea and the Donbass, so it couldn't be used to justify an invasion that already started. By 2021, the conflict was pretty much frozen and civlian deaths almost zero. So again no justification for the larger scale invasion.

You're right that the US establishment is full of self-interest and will use and abuse its proxies and then abandon them. The main motivation driving their foreign policy is maintaining and increasing their power. And the same is true for Russia. Every humanitarian justification invoked for the war is just propaganda aimed at the feeble-minded, and I encourage you to see it. Countries usually don't go to war for humanitarian reasons (e.g. saving Russian speakers), they do out of geopolitical interests (or more often, geopolitical miscalculations).

You, yourself, say
Morals have nothing to do with it other than as propaganda.
Well in a way you're right. So why then do all kinds of mental gymnastics to give a purely moral justification to Putin's war?

Here you engage in black-and-white thinking again. Correctly describing the US as self-interested, but bending over backwards to try to present Russia's intervention as a selfless humanitarian war of conquest. You seem to be completely blind to this cognitive bias of yours.

You try to make Russia's intervention seem righteous by comparing them to the Texan Revolution? I'm confused.
As far as I know, the Anglos of Texas fought for independence mainly because they wanted to keep their slaves and make their own laws (I presume mostly regarding money and property) independently from Mexico City's centralist government, not because of some deep cultural discrimination or threat against their culture.
And if the US helped them it was never out of humanitarian goodwill but because it furthered its own foreign policy interests.
The expansionist ambitions of the US became even more obvious when they annexed Texas and then waged war on Mexico in 1846 based on a bogus casus belli.
Could you explain to me why this war currently waged by Russia is so different in its good intentions compared to all wars of the past?

I wanted to enage with you, because at least it seems like you pretend to speak in good faith.
But then your post deteriorates in the usual propaganda mumbo jumbo:
1. This war of conquest is "actually a defensive war against the West"
2. "I can call everyone I don't like a N*zi, words have no meanings" (in which case there's no point having a discussion?)
3. The classic ad hominem attacks on the Ukrainian nation, which "is a sh*thole" (what would it change to anything? it seems like you guys can't refrain from insulting an entire nation, which really just weakens your point and the fake persona you're trying to project of a detached and realistic observer)
4. And finally, when in doubt, "gays!" and "biolabs!"

Overall it was a good effort, but I suggest next time to try to avoid the logical fallacies and read a bit on the history of the conflict (and Texas maybe?). And once again, a more focused message would do wonder.
 
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All that is needed for Nazism is any kind of National Socialism (Socialism being the state being in control of society at a granular level)
This is an amusing historical take that I just wanted to note and not discuss, given the thread. But: funny!
 
It's not good, but it's going better, at the same level of Algeria, Brazil and Serbia.

While Russia is worsening, now at the same level of Guinea, Kyrgyzstan and Uganda.

.

Also China. Xi's regime does everything in its power to conceal the level of corruption taking place, but the last years have really exposed a lot of stuff going on. Corruption, greed and sheer incompetence has lead to an overbuild of additional homes that can house around +1 billion people, homes that are vacant and will likely never see anyone living in them. That's the populations of the US, South America and Europe combined. Utter stupidity.

Thousands of officials and officers disappear each year in China, often due to being connected to corruption scandals. No trials, they just 'disappear'. Swept under the rug.
 
Moderator Action: OK guys, you all have strayed far enough from the current news that I'm going to give your fingers a 24 hour break. See you all tomorrow. Locked for now.
 
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