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[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine--Act 3: Ride of the Valkyries

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Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned. Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”
 
I'd guess that China can rely on Myanmar, North Korea and Russia.
yeah both of them are unstable and poor at the moment.
And China don't even like Russia THAT much. they are forced into alliance because of common enemy ( USA) but aside from that... not much.
Their relationships are more of co-workers who are forced to deal with each other rather than actual friends like US with four-eyes alliance ( US,UK,Australia, New Zealand). Really china don't have its own "four eyes" alliance.
Edit: sorry didn't see the mod post. I won't post about China any more after this.
 
I suspect perceptions of the four eyes alliance vary according to whether one is inside it outside it.

As an insider I note that Australians are programmed from child hood to dislike the UK.
New Zealanders are programmed not to be Australians. Even its membership varies;
sometimes includes the Canadians (programmed not to be yankydoodles) instead of the Kiwis
because the USA hates the no nukes in New Zealand policy of the New Zealand government.

To my mind, its main achievement is annoying the French.

Although arguably that is worthwhile in itself.
 
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Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned. Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”

Purported reasons for the invasion:

nnnn. Vlad Putin and friends think they will each win a giant yacht?

Edit:

Vlad Putin already has a yacht.

But perhaps the battle of Mariopol was to secure a mooring space for it ?
 
The list of purported reasons you posted for the Johnson regime last week works just as well for the Putin one,

it would suprise me if someone came up with a new reason for going to war, it is the second oldest profession in the world after all.
 
Phony narrative after phony narrative. How come the russians are both causing a hunger inside Ukraine and blocking food exports from Ukraine?
The Ukranian government's stance of denial about its own defeat will cause all kinds of problems, that much is obvious. But it's not part of a any "genocide" any more than the germans were genocided while losing WW2.

Have you tried reading ?
Its not that hard to figure it out.

access has been cut off to the war's victims in the heavily besieged cities of Eastern Ukraine. David Beasley: We can't reach them. We're blocked. We can't get into the besieged cities
Why would the Russians not allow food to be delivered to starving people?
David Beasley: It's beyond imagination. Why would you deny innocent victims of war food, non-combatants? It's just wrong, evil.
This is their time. And they are not. Why? Because farmers are soldiers.
No labor, no fuel, no machinery. Our estimates are between 30 to 50 percent will actually be harvested
Food is now a weapon in this war. A restaurant cooking for the disaster relief organization, World Central Kitchen, was hit in an airstrike--wounding four. Sandbags shield a church basement.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-food-shortage-russia-60-minutes-2022-05-01/
 
That is a change of topic from economics to military alliances, no matter.

I'd guess that China can rely on Myanmar, North Korea and Russia.
But China is not at war now, so it does not matter much at the moment.




So what. The cars my father drove me in and the cars I used to drive didn't have airbags.
And it also seems that they are no longer paying for emissions cheating technology.

That doesn't kill the Russia economy.

According to that link this relaxation lasts until until February 1, 2023.
The question is, will the relaxation be extended or will they have
alternatively sourced or reverse engineered the technology by then.
I suspect that it will take longer than that, and primarily because
the priority will be given to military vehicles.

You can see that the restriction on technology transfer is starting to have its effects. You can recreate cars from the 1930s and they will get the job done of carrying you from A to B. If that's the only thing that matters to you, then I guess you won't mind. If Russians will be content with having plain bread, old cars and old computer technology for the next 30 years, then I guess all's well there. On the other hand, in the 21st century I would have expected that the government should support technological advancement and betterment of quality of life. Instead, Russia went for land grab and genocide.
 
The overall effect is obviously negative, and not only for Russia. As for good sides, it creates stronger incentives for development of semiconductor and other high-tech sectors of economy. Increases trade with BRICS and other more friendly partners. Also, as all viable sanctions are in place, the economic leverage of the West against Russia is pretty much depleted.
1. Like Russia will invest in high tech technology that's not weapons manufacturing. You had 30 years to build up an actual economy that's not reliant only on energy exports. It did not happen and your best talents are emigrating to the West. Now, when the situation is pretty dire, you think you will succeed in a few years? Russia just barely learned to produce its own food after 2014, and foodstuff is the lowest level among the value added industries.
2. How do you intend to trade with BRICS? India and China will buy some oil and gas and minerals, but not much else. The price of export goods will be depressed due to sanctions. Furthermore, the infrastructure is not yet there, sea cargo companies will not really sell their services to Russia. I agree that some of the lost export will be sent to BRICS, but both the price and volume will be much lower (and shipping costs will be higher).
3. The EU has not yet activated oil and gas sanctions. This will take time, probably 2-3 years, but it will come, nevertheless.
 
The overall effect is obviously negative, and not only for Russia.

Well, yeah, it's trivially obvious. That's comparative advantage.

Also, as all viable sanctions are in place, the economic leverage of the West against Russia is pretty much depleted.

It might make a difference in practice, because of the psychology of people being more upset at losing something they have than about not gaining something they don't have, but in terms of objective, measurable leverage, it doesn't make much difference, declining to lift a sanction A is equivalent to imposing a new sanction B.

If Russians will be content with having plain bread

Russian agriculture produces everything required for fancy bread.
 
We still live in caves actually. Don't have IT, space and nuclear industry, can't make own planes, trucks and power plants. But invented wheel already.
You have all of which you listed, only the technology is from the 1970s without Western transfers.
 
It might make a difference in practice, because of the psychology of people being more upset at losing something they have than about not gaining something they don't have, but in terms of objective, measurable leverage, it doesn't make much difference, declining to lift a sanction A is equivalent to imposing a new sanction B.
Sanctions will stay basically forever, as there is no defined mechanism of lifting them and practice shows that they are imposed and kept for arbitrary reasons. For example Jackson–Vanik amendment enacted against USSR and still active against several post-Soviet republics 50 years later. The problem with them is that they affect both sides and their effect diminishes over time.

You have all of which you listed, only the technology is from the 1970s without Western transfers.
Mindless orcs cannot have innovations or develop new technologies, I remember.
 
Mindless orcs cannot have innovations or develop new technologies, I remember.

Well, to develop new technologies you need more investment in education and/or importing more technology. None of these is available currently.
Being an attractive international environment for young people and entrepreneurs also helps.
 
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-politics-41f8ccd1e1d75a062275181d9288d378

After 3 months of war, life in Russia has profoundly changed

When Vladimir Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, war seemed far away from Russian territory. Yet within days the conflict came home — not with cruise missiles and mortars but in the form of unprecedented and unexpectedly extensive volleys of sanctions by Western governments and economic punishment by corporations.

Three months after the Feb. 24 invasion, many ordinary Russians are reeling from those blows to their livelihoods and emotions. Moscow’s vast shopping malls have turned into eerie expanses of shuttered storefronts once occupied by Western retailers.

Major industrial players including oil giants BP and Shell and automaker Renault walked away, despite their huge investments in Russia. Shell has estimated it will lose about $5 billion by trying to unload its Russian assets.

While the multinationals were leaving, thousands of Russians who had the economic means to do so were also fleeing, frightened by harsh new government moves connected to the war that they saw as a plunge into full totalitarianism. Some young men may have also fled in fear that the Kremlin would impose a mandatory draft to feed its war machine.
Article continues ...
 
Sanctions will stay basically forever, as there is no defined mechanism of lifting them and practice shows that they are imposed and kept for arbitrary reasons. For example Jackson–Vanik amendment enacted against USSR and still active against several post-Soviet republics 50 years later. The problem with them is that they affect both sides and their effect diminishes over time.

U.S. drops sanctions on former Iranian officials
 
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