• Civilization 7 has been announced. For more info please check the forum here .
I've no doubts about that, unless they want to go to jail, Russian milbloggers must publish more Ukrainian losses than Russian. Are they allowed to publish any list of Russian losses to begin with ?



More neutral than Switzerland ? Wouldn't Russian officials have come there if they were invited ?

And of course Russia will have to be involved in the following steps.
Switzerland is not neutral in this conflict. It also decided to support Ukraine in this conflict, in solidarity with the rest of Europe.

The Swiss not declaring themselves strictly neutral is pretty big, historically speaking.
 
In reality he reviews more Russian sources from telegram than Ukrainian sources.
Apparently not.
From fighterbomber, aka "the only reliable Russian source":

"The (Morozovsk) airfield was empty. But you'll get your ass kicked for the broken roof, of course"
 
If you see reports about Ukrainian military assets destroyed, they all refer to Russian-made footage, not Ukrainian.
For example:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...atching-and-a-russian-strike-force-was-ready/
With rare exceptions when local civilians post something in social media, risking to get arrested.

yes, of course, but I thought Russians had leveled the difference with Ukraine when it comes to recon drone.

Apparently not.
From fighterbomber, aka "the only reliable Russian source":

"The (Morozovsk) airfield was empty. But you'll get your ass kicked for the broken roof, of course"

And indeed, those Su-34 are not listed in the Russian losses.

Switzerland is not neutral in this conflict. It also decided to support Ukraine in this conflict, in solidarity with the rest of Europe.

The Swiss not declaring themselves strictly neutral is pretty big, historically speaking.
but still not allowing weapons/ammo they sold to European countries to be transferred, or did I miss that ?

Who's left neutral ? Brazil ?
 
Since you y
Apparently not.
From fighterbomber, aka "the only reliable Russian source":

"The (Morozovsk) airfield was empty. But you'll get your ass kicked for the broken roof, of course"
You are mixing two different twits from different authors talking about different things. Understanable, since you don't know what you are talking about.

About the airfield , it is empty NOW for sure lol. Funny how in fighterbomber photo, which is the same as the one you can't see, the resolution is just low enough so the two su-34 in the destroyed hangar are not visible. Maybe the number of Russian reliable sources is not one but zero?
 
Part in bold is factually wrong, there was a report about that which was misinformed as they are still used.

I mean, I've seem them still appearing in the visually confirmed losses of the last few weeks
About Abrams losses - the article is two weeks old, by the time of publishing it was correct. They were withdrawn from combat after Ukraine lost 5-6 of them in about a week in April.
They started to appear in losses again only in June or late May, you can check earlier reports.
 
Sweden used to be neutral, now they too have realized Russia cannot be trusted, the others will come around too but for the moment they still profit from the conflict.

Nah, the formula was "alliance free in peacetime, neutral in wartime".

When Russia attacked Ukraine the situation overnight flipped to "wartime", except this time Sweden decided to not declare itself neutral to it. There is a precedent – the the 1939-40 Finnish Winter War, where Sweden also did not declare its neutrality, and sent aid to Finland.

And then there is of course the whole funny business of Sweden being an "undercover" secret US ally through the later part of the Cold War. The US extended it's "nuclear umbrella" over Sweden as well, in return for Sweden scrapping its nuclear weapons program in the late 1960's.
 
Loss of these Su-34 was debunked, it would be stupid for him to report such cases.
Debunked by who? We have satellite images of a heavy attack on an airfield where many impacts and destructions are visible after Russian officials claimed all UAVs were downed (as usual), we have also the before with the aircraft and the aftermath with burn spots in the exact places where the aircraft were parked and even two aircraft are partially visible inside a destroyed hangar.
Of course Andrew didnt include them since he only counts confirmed loses where you can see the tank exploding in pieces literally. But nothing debunked here. Much on the contrary.
 
About Abrams losses - the article is two weeks old, by the time of publishing it was correct. They were withdrawn from combat after Ukraine lost 5-6 of them in about a week in April.
They started to appear in losses again only in June or late May, you can check earlier reports.

Brigades are rotated on the front, there is only one operating the Abrams, the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

That brigade suffered losses because Russia was about to make a breakthrough in their sector in March...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ir-last-stand-and-halted-the-russian-advance/

It’s dangerous work for the 47th Brigade’s weary troopers, who have been in combat practically non-stop for nine months.

... then in April, just before it was about to be rotated out of the front...


The 47th Mechanized Brigade has been fighting for nearly a year without a break. Its soldiers are tired; its battalions are running low on their best M-2 Bradley fighting vehicles and M-1 Abrams tanks. The brigade needs a break—and it almost got one this week.

But that planned break was an invitation for the Russian field armies around the ruins of Avdiivka—an opportunity to inflict on the Ukrainians the kind of major defeat the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russians farther north around the city of Kharkiv in late 2022.

... and the rotation was delayed.

And once they were finally rotated out, Russian propaganda started, and pro-Russian or useful idiots spread it.
 
Debunked by who?
By Fighterbomber, who has insider information, and doesn't hesitate to report Russian losses. As opposed to speculations from low res satellite pictures.

Brigades are rotated on the front, there is only one operating the Abrams, the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

That brigade suffered losses because Russia was about to make a breakthrough in their sector in March...
I don't see substantial difference between "Brigade suffered losses and was withdrawn from combat" and "Brigade suffered losses and was rotated".
Whether rotation was caused by high losses in general or unusually high Abrams losses, we don't know.

There were reports about Ukrainians equipping Abramses with anti-drone nets and Soviet-made Kontakt ERA, so the reason for withdrawal might just as well be making them more difficult to kill by the drones.
 
By Fighterbomber, who has insider information, and doesn't hesitate to report Russian losses. As opposed to speculations from low res satellite pictures.
Let's see: satellite pictures being debunked by the word of a Russian mil-blogger mmmm... Sorry but this work the other way around.
 
I don't see substantial difference between "Brigade suffered losses and was withdrawn from combat" and "Brigade suffered losses and was rotated".
Whether rotation was caused by high losses in general or unusually high Abrams losses, we don't know.

Rotation is something planned, Russian army doesn't rotate its brigades ?

That brigade stayed longer on the front that it should have, that was known before the losses in March.

And those April losses happened after it was beginning to rotate out, they had to go back because the rotation with another brigade failed and Russia could have made a breakthrough.

So yes, we definitively know that the April losses didn't cause the withdrawal, it's the failed rotation that caused the losses.

Almost no artillery support in March and April by the way (and no air support, of course), 10:1 ratio of shells fired in favor of Russia, would that happen if it was the US army operating them on the front ?

And yet, no breakthrough.

Conclusion: Abrams are a failure.

Sure. Let's hope the F-16 will fail the same way, as well as other western equipment, a few more failures like that and Russia will finally be short of cold war era stocks to wage its war.
 
Right, satellite pictures which failed to provide evidence of losses, even for pro-Ukrainian reporters.

Apart of the parking zone charred even with marks of burnt fuel splits, there are two aircraft visible in the destroyed roofless hangar, unless Russia like to store aircraft in ruinous debris-full hangars those were there during the attack. So not direct evidence but extremely heavy indications. The word of a russian milblogger is neither evidence, nor indication otoh.
 
Rotation is something planned, Russian army doesn't rotate its brigades ?

That brigade stayed longer on the front that it should have, that was known before the losses in March.

And those April losses happened after it was beginning to rotate out, they had to go back because the rotation with another brigade failed and Russia could have made a breakthrough.

So yes, we definitively know that the April losses didn't cause the withdrawal, it's the failed rotation that caused the losses.

Almost no artillery support in March and April by the way (and no air support, of course), 10:1 ratio of shells fired in favor of Russia, would that happen if it was the US army operating them on the front ?

And yet, no breakthrough.

Conclusion: Abrams are a failure.

Sure. Let's hope the F-16 will fail the same way, as well as other western equipment, a few more failures like that and Russia will finally be short of cold war era stocks to wage its war.
We can't know the all the real reasons of withdrawal/rotation.
The facts that we know is Ukraine suffered multiple Abrams losses in April. Then tanks didn't appear on the battlefield for a while, until June. Having additional anti-drone protection, but still suffering losses. Everything else is assumptions.

So not direct evidence but extremely heavy indications.
Neither one.

Oh he sure does hesitate to report Russian losses :) . He only reports the most obvious ones that cannot be hidden.
I regularly read him, unlike you.
In regards to air forces he occasionally reports some losses which didn't appear anywhere else.

And of course he likes to debunk Ukrainian fakes about Russian losses.
One of the earlier reports when Ukraine claimed six aircraft destroyed and 8 damaged, which upon verification turned into zero :)

 
Last edited:
We can't know the all the real reasons of withdrawal/rotation.
The facts that we know is Ukraine suffered multiple Abrams losses in April. Then tanks didn't appear on the battlefield for a while, until June. Having additional anti-drone protection, but still suffering losses. Everything else is assumptions.
Please, I take the time to source my facts, planned rotation in April is one, if you want to discuss that fact, provide a source that says it wasn't planned.
 
Time to restart the program maybe ?
Hardly. It's a big part of the reason Sweden has headed into NATO. When the USSR imploded, the treaty with the US expired – no USSR, no deal.

Not that anyone thought much about it at the time, since this new Russia was supposed to be nice and reasonable and not-threatening like the USSR had been. It wasn't as if there was any kind of ideological conflict – or so it seemed for quite some time...

The other big part was that the Finns took one hard look at Russia in early 2022, and went hell-for-leather towards NATO. Had the Finns not done so, then the separate Swedish-Finnish defense-union that was already in place would have continued – and neither of them would have joined NATO. It's just that with the Finns already gone, the clock was ticking to not end up holding the bucket of being the only non-NATO state in a neighborhood dealing with an aggressive, revanchistic Russia.

The fundamental problem with an independent nuclear weapons (and launch vehicle) program is that it costs a fortune. And it is a LOT less useful than outright conventional military capability for deterrence – and what makes for the deterrent effect is actual military ability to seek out a destroy stuff in detail. Nuking everything in sight could do that too, sorta kinda, but is clearly not advisable.
 
Top Bottom