[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: The Four Horsemen Arrive

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How pro war do we need to be?

Roger Waters gigs cancelled in Poland after Ukraine comments

Concerts by Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters have been cancelled by a venue in the Polish city of Krakow after the artist’s comments on the war in Ukraine caused a storm of criticism.​
Waters was to appear in Krakow in April, but Polish media reports about an open letter he wrote to Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska urging her to ask her husband to choose “a different route” and criticising the West for supplying Ukraine with arms provoked a fierce backlash.​
“Lukasz Wantuch has threatened to hold a meeting asking the council to declare me ‘persona non grata’ because of my public efforts to encourage all involved in the disastrous war in Ukraine, especially the governments of the USA and Russia, to work towards a negotiated peace,” Waters wrote in a post on Facebook.​
Spoiler Did You Exchange A Walk On Part In The War For A Lead Role In A Cage? :
 
How pro war do we need to be?
I mean, Waters is on-record as saying Biden is a war criminal (but only primarily because of Biden's support for Ukraine in the current conflict, and not anything else that we might ascribe to US foreign policy and indeed multiple Presidents generally) and that Taiwan is a part of China. He blames the current conflict on NATO, to boot.

So it's not so much "person cancelled for being anti-war" and "person generally found to be in a minority opinion that often tends to align with pro-Russian propaganda". This isn't to say that you can't criticise NATO without being a Russian propagandist, I'm just pointing out the overlap specifically at the moment in the wake of Russia's invasion (that Waters is also on-record as saying the notion of such was demonisation of Russia, before it happened).
 
So they are not puppets but bona fide allies and supporters?
Speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed his country was coping with the West’s economic “aggression”. He warned that instead of having the effect the West desired, the sanctions were eroding the quality of life for Europeans and poorer countries were losing access to food.

Well, they're echoing that sentiment in that oh so witty cartoon ....


When it comes to assessing the impact of economic sanctions, six months is normally not enough time. Indeed, economists believe the real debate on the Russia sanctions goes beyond 2022.

The second challenge is selection of and access to reliable data.

A commonly used figure to measure the impact of sanctions is Gross Domestic Project (GDP) in a targeted country. In April, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the Russian GDP to drop 8.5% in 2022. It has now improved its outlook for the dynamics of Russia’s economy to a fall of 6%.

A similarly indicative figure is inflation rate. But as with GDP, a clear and singular causality between sanctions and inflation is impossible to establish.

According to First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, inflation in Russia in 2022 will come in at 12-13%. The actual figure is likely to be higher.

A look at car sales in Russia offers another illustrative example, especially since households tend to try to buy durable goods during periods of high inflation.

Car sales in March 2022 were three times lower than in March 2021. By September 2022, the production of cars in Russia has fallen by three-quarters compared to last year.

A similar dynamic can be observed in the aviation industry. The Russian airline Aeroflot, for instance, has grounded planes because there are no more spare parts.

Equally, the Russian military is reportedly taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors.

This suggests that the system of Western export controls is working. Indeed, according to some estimates, imports in April 2022 collapsed as much as 70-80% year-on-year.


So, where does that leave us?

The sanctions have not stopped Russia from waging war in Ukraine. And, at least for the time being, Putin’s grip on power in Russia itself remains strong.

This means the short-term disruptions from the Russia sanctions may be less than originally hoped for. But there are early signs of significant stress for the Russian economy. Indeed, it is likely this stress will intensify in 2023 and beyond.

More generally, it is important to recognise that limiting an assessment of sanctions to measuring impact and causality is missing the bigger picture.

Short of direct military confrontation, the US, the EU and their allies had few alternatives at their disposal to respond to the Russian aggression. More importantly, perhaps, it is clear that eventually the Ukraine crisis can only be solved diplomatically.

And it is at this point that the sanctions – or the lifting of them – will come in handy as a major political and economic bargaining chip.
 
Speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed his country was coping with the West’s economic “aggression”. He warned that instead of having the effect the West desired, the sanctions were eroding the quality of life for Europeans and poorer countries were losing access to food.

Well, they're echoing that sentiment in that oh so witty cartoon ....


When it comes to assessing the impact of economic sanctions, six months is normally not enough time. Indeed, economists believe the real debate on the Russia sanctions goes beyond 2022.

The second challenge is selection of and access to reliable data.

A commonly used figure to measure the impact of sanctions is Gross Domestic Project (GDP) in a targeted country. In April, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the Russian GDP to drop 8.5% in 2022. It has now improved its outlook for the dynamics of Russia’s economy to a fall of 6%.

A similarly indicative figure is inflation rate. But as with GDP, a clear and singular causality between sanctions and inflation is impossible to establish.

According to First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, inflation in Russia in 2022 will come in at 12-13%. The actual figure is likely to be higher.

A look at car sales in Russia offers another illustrative example, especially since households tend to try to buy durable goods during periods of high inflation.

Car sales in March 2022 were three times lower than in March 2021. By September 2022, the production of cars in Russia has fallen by three-quarters compared to last year.

A similar dynamic can be observed in the aviation industry. The Russian airline Aeroflot, for instance, has grounded planes because there are no more spare parts.

Equally, the Russian military is reportedly taking chips from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their military hardware, because they ran out of semiconductors.

This suggests that the system of Western export controls is working. Indeed, according to some estimates, imports in April 2022 collapsed as much as 70-80% year-on-year.



So, where does that leave us?

The sanctions have not stopped Russia from waging war in Ukraine. And, at least for the time being, Putin’s grip on power in Russia itself remains strong.

This means the short-term disruptions from the Russia sanctions may be less than originally hoped for. But there are early signs of significant stress for the Russian economy. Indeed, it is likely this stress will intensify in 2023 and beyond.

More generally, it is important to recognise that limiting an assessment of sanctions to measuring impact and causality is missing the bigger picture.

Short of direct military confrontation, the US, the EU and their allies had few alternatives at their disposal to respond to the Russian aggression. More importantly, perhaps, it is clear that eventually the Ukraine crisis can only be solved diplomatically.

And it is at this point that the sanctions – or the lifting of them – will come in handy as a major political and economic bargaining chip.
It's only a cartoon, no need to overreact to it; surely in Holland this would be known at least as much as everywhere else.
But the more important issue is that no one can seriously expect any criticism of the sanctions to be in tautology with being pro-Putin.
 
How pro war do we need to be?

Roger Waters gigs cancelled in Poland after Ukraine comments

Concerts by Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters have been cancelled by a venue in the Polish city of Krakow after the artist’s comments on the war in Ukraine caused a storm of criticism.​
Waters was to appear in Krakow in April, but Polish media reports about an open letter he wrote to Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska urging her to ask her husband to choose “a different route” and criticising the West for supplying Ukraine with arms provoked a fierce backlash.​
“Lukasz Wantuch has threatened to hold a meeting asking the council to declare me ‘persona non grata’ because of my public efforts to encourage all involved in the disastrous war in Ukraine, especially the governments of the USA and Russia, to work towards a negotiated peace,” Waters wrote in a post on Facebook.​
Spoiler Did You Exchange A Walk On Part In The War For A Lead Role In A Cage? :

Hes entitled to his opinion and the Poles are entitled to decide they don't want him performing in Poland. I suspect given how strong support for Ukraine is in Poland the venue feared trouble at his concerts if they went ahead.
 
Hes entitled to his opinion and the Poles are entitled to decide they don't want him performing in Poland. I suspect given how strong support for Ukraine is in Poland the venue feared trouble at his concerts if they went ahead.
Was it the Guardian (or some other newspaper) that rather ridiculously tried to counteract Waters' view with that of Gilmour? (as if being a member of Pink Floyd automatically means you have a history of expressing views on political events - Waters does due to himself) :)
 
It's only a cartoon, no need to overreact to it;
I agree, it's just a dumb cartoon.
surely in Holland this would be known at least as much as everywhere else.
Indeed, there's some dimwits in the Netherlands who also think that the sanctions only hurt ourselves.
But the more important issue is that no one can seriously expect any criticism of the sanctions to be in tautology with being pro-Putin.
Luckily, this was only a cartoon and not serious criticism.
 
I agree, it's just a dumb cartoon.

Indeed, there's some dimwits in the Netherlands who also think that the sanctions only hurt ourselves.

Luckily, this was only a cartoon and not serious criticism.
Just because you project dumbness into something, doesn't mean it was dumb. It's why it's called "projection", otherwise we'd speak of people being in touch with the reality of all others.
And you misinterpreted point 2 in a different way, I meant that surely history has taught us that overreacting to political comedy won't end well.
 
Just because you project dumbness into something, doesn't mean it was dumb.
Quite. The cartoon being dumb means it was dumb.
It's why it's called "projection", otherwise we'd speak of people being in touch with the reality of all others.
Like how you're projecting overreaction on to me? Yeah, I can see how that works.
And you misinterpreted point 2 in a different way, I meant that surely history has told us that overreacting to political comedy won't end well.
Tell me, what won't end well when I judge a dumb cartoon being dumb?



edit: By the way, what's your take on the assessment of the sanctions I posted?
 
Quite. The cartoon being dumb means it was dumb.

Like how you're projecting overreaction on to me? Yeah, I can see how that works.

Tell me, what won't end well when I judge a dumb cartoon being dumb?



edit: By the way, what's your take on the assessment of the sanctions I posted?
I didn't project overreaction; you called it "dumb" a few times, which isn't exactly a passive reaction one would expect for a cartoon in a newspaper in a different country. You even went on to tie it to people you regard dumb in your own country; cartoon found a rent-free abode fast :/

My view, Ziggy, is that it is not a good idea to go all in with emotions and in the process identify everyone who isn't quite of the same view as a secret-Putin.
I recall discussions with you on similar issues, where you had a different view (it's why I mentioned cartoons and political comedy, hoping they'd ring a bell; maybe they did but it got silenced pretty quick :) )

edit: As for your assessment of the sanctions, are you happy with pontificating on what may or may not happen in 2023? Isn't it a bit unsafe itself?
 
I didn't project overreaction; you called it "dumb" a few times, which isn't exactly a passive reaction one would expect for a cartoon in a newspaper in a different country.
If it's not a passive reaction, it's an overreaction? Is that how that works?
You even went on to tie it to people you regard dumb in your own country; cartoon found a rent-free abode fast :/
Not the cartoon, but the sentiment the sanctions are only hurting ourselves is a dumb sentiment. So a cartoon which voices this sentiment is dumb by extension, sure.

I wonder what your point in posting it was. Is it you agree with this sentiment and I'm calling you a dimwit by proxy? If that's the case, I do apologize. I'll rephrase it that the sentiment is dumb.
My view, Ziggy, is that it is not a good idea to go all in with emotions and in the process identify everyone who isn't quite of the same view as a secret-Putin.
I recall discussions with you on similar issues, where you had a different view (it's why I mentioned cartoons and political comedy, hoping they'd ring a bell; maybe they did but it got silenced pretty quick :) )
For your information Kyriakos, judging a dumb cartoon as being dumb is not an emotional reaction. Nor is it an overreaction. It's just a reaction.

In the post you quoted I also posted an assessment of the sanctions which I find to be rather on the point. Any thoughts on that assessment?
 
Yes, I edited the post later, with a reply to the assessment of the sanctions. TLDR: it's merely expecting that while now it isn't so, it will be so in 2023, which is - to say the least - not a very safe assumption, and only an assumption.
 
As for your assessment of the sanctions, are you happy with pontificating on what may or may not happen in 2023? Isn't it a bit unsafe itself?
Riiiiight.

Also: not taking credit for it, not my assessment, just one I found to be on point.

Oh well, see you tomorrow!
 
How pro war do we need to be?

Roger Waters gigs cancelled in Poland after Ukraine comments

Concerts by Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters have been cancelled by a venue in the Polish city of Krakow after the artist’s comments on the war in Ukraine caused a storm of criticism.​
Waters was to appear in Krakow in April, but Polish media reports about an open letter he wrote to Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska urging her to ask her husband to choose “a different route” and criticising the West for supplying Ukraine with arms provoked a fierce backlash.​
“Lukasz Wantuch has threatened to hold a meeting asking the council to declare me ‘persona non grata’ because of my public efforts to encourage all involved in the disastrous war in Ukraine, especially the governments of the USA and Russia, to work towards a negotiated peace,” Waters wrote in a post on Facebook.​
Spoiler Did You Exchange A Walk On Part In The War For A Lead Role In A Cage? :

My understanding of Waters is that he is an absolute pacifist who considers fighting in any war to be wrong - to the extent that he thinks the harm done by surrendering to an aggressor, now matter how bad, to be less than that caused by fighting to resist aggression.

Which would be a sentiment I could potentially have some respect for, particularly given how WW2 shaped his early life, if he didn't also go on to blame Ukraine and NATO for the war....
 
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