Russia's Future

[Birdjaguar]

This is a speculation thread on what Russia's future might look like across the spectrum of arenas that might include:

• As part of the international community
• Militarily
• Economically
• Politically
• As a place to live
• As Climate changes
• As the war winds down and the rest of the world assesses its options
• Etc.

 

[thetrooper]

Climate change: China wants a big chunk of land.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I'm thinking that Russia will spend a decade as a pariah state like NK if the EU and US don't fold when the war ends. If Putin is booted, that might change, but I am hoping Russia pays hard for the war.

 

[r16]

brighter than America's . When the recent escapade backfires . Never underestimate the power of internal issues to wreck a country .

 

[Birdjaguar]

Brighter than Turkey's?

 

[REDY]

If will Ukraine fall, Russia has no option than become a puppet of China. Economical decline will be harsh, but with Chinese help Russians will be able to restore its military and Russia will become useful stick against Chinese rivals.

The best option is probably that Russians will not like it and Putin will end like Ceacescu. Then would be wise some sort of Marshall´s plan.

 

[r16]

turkey will outlast America hands tied down . Just check this . Governor of a city , assigned by a Goverment bent on destruction of everything . Including the tradition of kids growing up for a day , as they will in the future and take the "seat" of power . New Turkey , back in Obama's time when Syria would fall and they would openly become Arabs and handle the rest in some "proper" way ... PM said he wouldn't give his seat to any kid because he had won an election or two , his status had to respected ... Second picture former Speaker of Parliament , mentor of PM , long held to be the organizator of a political rally that saw the first "political murders" of the country in 1968 or so . If they are a child , they do not cover up . If they need to cover up they are not a child and they have no place in an April 23rd ceremony . And ı have never ever seen a pink headcover as of yet . The third ? Current Speaker on a day when the political debate revolves around 10 million Syrian refugees and 20 million Pakistanis on the road . They need to mollify people ...

Spoiler :

and yes , the guy that is figuratively "America's greatest success" is bodily blocking the picture of Atatürk so that Jews and all sorts of similar undesirables will understand New Turkey is eternal . You know , instead of removing Atatürk's picture totally . Not about Russia ? Trust me , ı am behaving and for now will avoid telling how Ukraine happens because the Governor of a prime Congregation territory can not remove a single picture .

 

[Kyriakos]

Russia will be the puppet of China, but buying gas and oil from an ocean away has nothing to do with being a puppet.

 

[r16]

russia will become Chinese property and there will be partizans and China will be too busy to mess with America . This for the 21st Century , the American Century where are no dark clouds on the horizon .

 

[Birdjaguar]

brighter than America's . When the recent escapade backfires . Never underestimate the power of internal issues to wreck a country .

russia will become Chinese property and there will be partizans and China will be too busy to mess with America . This for the 21st Century , the American Century where are no dark clouds on the horizon .

Hmmm...make up your mind please.

 

[r16]

there is no confusion . That China will be militarily opposed , and the Chinese will be better judges of that than any forum members anywhere on the web . My lack in the use of smilies should not blind you at the sarcasm about this American Century .

 

[amadeus]

Putin is 69–if he pulls a Hastings Banda, that means he’s got another 20-25 years in him.

What does that spell for Russia? Myehhhh, not good. Whatever problems the country has now, they’ll just be exacerbated over the next decade. Is anyone going to want to, in the private sector, do anything capital-intensive in such an unstable environment? Not just Western capital, sanctions or no sanctions, but even Russians themselves—do you want to risk having your investments wiped out because of Putin’s arbitrariness?

The only way forward as I see it is for Russia to embrace the West, embrace at least some liberalism, and get past the Soviet “stab-in-the-back” myth. Fears that Russia would just become some poor American/IMF colony? Ridiculous! Look at Germany and Japan, neither country has even a sliver of the resources Russia does, and Russia’s population surpasses both.

 

[Estebonrober]

Putin is 69–if he pulls a Hastings Banda, that means he’s got another 20-25 years in him.

What does that spell for Russia? Myehhhh, not good. Whatever problems the country has now, they’ll just be exacerbated over the next decade. Is anyone going to want to, in the private sector, do anything capital-intensive in such an unstable environment? Not just Western capital, sanctions or no sanctions, but even Russians themselves—do you want to risk having your investments wiped out because of Putin’s arbitrariness?

The only way forward as I see it is for Russia to embrace the West, embrace at least some liberalism, and get past the Soviet “stab-in-the-back” myth. Fears that Russia would just become some poor American/IMF colony? Ridiculous! Look at Germany and Japan, neither country has even a sliver of the resources Russia does, and Russia’s population surpasses both.

I miss having this kind of optimism for potentials in world geopolitics.

 

[amadeus]

I miss having this kind of optimism for potentials in world geopolitics.

I don’t see any other path; Russia is talking about moving its trade to the BICS countries, but they’re not buying oil and natgas in those volumes at WE prices. And then there’s everything else, like these countries being structurally deficient, heading straight into a middle-income country trap. I think India over the long term is best suited to get out of it if they want to, the others... well, they’re stuck with leaders that run the gamut from pure evil to grossly crooked and incompetent.

edit: oops accidentally spilled formatting all over my text

 

[Kyriakos]

Putin is 69–if he pulls a Hastings Banda, that means he’s got another 20-25 years in him.

He'd be pretty young if he was running in the US elections ^_^

 

[Snowygerry]

He doesn't look very healthy - can barely sit up straight, incoherent, often repetitive speech, I'll be surprised he last another 10 years.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I keep thinking things will go much faster and Putin will no make it to 2023. Not because the otherwise glomy economical prospects but because Russia is heading for a crushing military defeat in Ukraine. So he will have two options: going nuclear or going into a mass grave with the rest of his government. In both cases he will not make it to 2023.

 

[Kyriakos]

I still don't identify how a side is militarily crushed when it controls 1/4 of the other side's country. Sure, if Ukraine keeps being sent weapons, they can keep fighting, but in order to be winning you sort of have to at least control your territory.

 

[Zardnaar]

I still don't identify how a side is militarily crushed when it controls 1/4 of the other side's country. Sure, if Ukraine keeps being sent weapons, they can keep fighting, but in order to be winning you sort of have to at least control your territory.

They've made very little progress on the ground last month+ and pulled out near Kyiv.

There economy is gonna be in trouble in a month or two.

They've lost close to half their deployed tanks (minimum) though to around 700/1200.

They might win some sort of Pyric victory as it looks like their new attack is going about as well as the last one.

From the sounds if it they can't replace any tanks or planes etc that they lose.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I think the logic is about resources; the argument being that the West can replace
destroyed Ukrainian equipment faster than Russia can replace its own losses.

Thing is the strategy of supplying Ukraine to bleed Russia is all very grandiose,
but what happens if China counters by deciding to supply Russia to bleed the West.