Annexing an area the size of England isn't just a "pyric victory".
Russia's Future
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
Annexing an area the size of England isn't just a "pyric victory".
Zardnaar
Deity
Might not be the size of England though shootings not finished yet.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
My immediate concern for a revolution in Russia is what to do with all the defense establishment people, rocket scientists and what have you, left out of a job. We don’t want them finding their way to Iran or North Korea.
At the end of WWI, Germany was still some 50, 80km within France. Depending on defining defeat, the U.S. pullouts of Afghanistan and South Vietnam could also count.
It is if it comes at the price of 10,000-20,000 men and 10% of Russia’s GDP.
Zardnaar
Deity
China's reliant in western money and are having economic problems of their own.
If anything, it may end up being larger, since there is talk of taking over the rest of the coast too (Odessa etc).
What is currently controlled by Russia is the size of England, though.
Austria was in the process of being overrun, which is why the war was obviously lost and Germany capitulated.
This is what is dangerous to not see: Russia doesn't care about the hit to GDP as long as it annexes the area, since long-term is what matters to it. They won't leave that just to avoid sanctions.
Zardnaar
Deity
And it's just talk they talked about Kyiv as well.
Other reason is Ukraine might actually have more tanks in theatre than Russia now and they've been moving east. Some are in Luhansk already.
Once the Russians embarrass themselves some more looks like a counter offensive.
In about a week that US artillery is ready to go. Ukrainian tanks are also redeploying from from Odessa.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Selling goods to both sides is a very profitable business.
Zardnaar
Deity
That two but something like half the expats in Hong Kong and 20000 businesses have left China.
Afaik Odessa and the rest of the western coast has many minorities (though perhaps not as friendly or neutral towards Russia), and of course distance from Kiev and the west part of Ukraine will make it much harder to defend. There is also the fleet which can hit it from the coast.
Zardnaar
Deity
The fleet that can be spotted by US planes and hit by harpoon and Neptune missiles? That fleet mostly hiding in port?
Think it was the 5th armored brigade it's about 4 btgs worth of stuff.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
In a war of conquest, finishing poorer than when you started is a crappy metric of victory to me!
Verbose
Deity
Yes, but if that is China's game, as soon as the war forces a choice between Russia (tiny in terms of trade) and the US and EU (huge) then the profitable business calculation is pretty darn harsh.
Russia is not really a contender compared to the others.
And what Russia is doing here is analog to the UK invading the Netherlands, due to a felt need to maintain the British Empire by taking out a competitor in international trade.
Verbose
Deity
You think these minorities will want to be made war on Russian-style at this point?
Zardnaar
Deity
Well Russia does have a right of return type immigration policy for ethnic Russians.
If they haven't moved home in 30+ years kinda says a bit.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Things change.
IMO desertification and pollution are likely bigger problems in China.
Back to Ukraine.
The Russians (while improving on the Kiev fiasco) are clearly unable to modify
their equipment or battle field tactics fast enough to capture East Ukraine.
In this war, the defence have the advantage.
I anticipate the Russian offensive will run out of steam, and they will switch to the defensive.
Once they do that, it is the Ukrainians who will then be facing attrition.
No doubt US armour and artillery will enable the Ukrainians to make progress, but it will be slow.
I do not see that this war forces China to make a choice now. The prior question is: are the USA and the EU prepared
to take substantive actions against China to enforce their sanctions regarding a war that neither are actually a party to.
Is the USA prepared to ban all coal and food exports to China?
I think not, but I could be wrong.
Maybe the situation will change if and when the EU complete completely stops importing coal, gas and oil from Russia.
But until then, the Chinese have no real reason to take any western requests to sanction Russia as made in good faith.
Verbose
Deity
IF – as was the suggestion – China decides to carry Russia by supplying the weapons Russia might eventually need to keep a war going – in order to "bleed the west" as you suggested – then, yes, China will be sanctioned and forced to chose.
Except of course IF it goes all the way to that situation, then China has already chosen, and not chosen the trade but rather to carry Russia. Simple Chinese miscalculation, like prior Russian miscalculation, is the greater risk.
But if China is looking at the bottom line still, they are not going to carry Russia like that, and take such a risk.
EnglishEdward
Deity
But it is not just a profit and loss calculation regarding trade.
The Chinese may conclude that an out right defeat for Russia would likely result in Russia becoming a de facto
vassal state of the West with NATO advancing into Siberia on its northern borders, and decline to take that risk.
The Chinese may conclude that an out right defeat for Russia would likely result in Russia becoming a de facto
vassal state of the West with NATO advancing into Siberia on its northern borders, and decline to take that risk.
Verbose
Deity
Seems to be the case with Putin clearly, yes. As long as it might look good in the history books three centuries hence, it's all good with him.
But the question is if Putin is actually getting the historical development to put him on par with Peter the Great here? He might be willing to risk it to have a shot at that, but is he getting it? And if he gets it wrong, we shall have to dredge Russian history of other analogies.
If he only partially succeeds in Ukraine, we will all move to the next Russo-Ukranian war. And if he succeeds fully, or just gets the job done eventually, he can move on to the next Russian war on the neighbourhood. Be that the Russo-Moldovan and then the Russo-Georgian. Eventually there could be a Russo-Finnsh one perhaps, maybe even the Russian-Swedish (possibly part of a Finland situation), and then eventually the Russo-NATO, whether that involves that Baltics or Poland first?
And that's Successful Russia in the incarnation Putin wants for it. If we go for Unsuccessful Russia, then other kinds of scenarios become possible.
Part of the question for the rest of Europe is can we afford that kind of Successful Russia, with the tangent it is on with Putin? If not, Russian failure is a Common Good for everyone. If not in Ukraine, then somewhere else.
We are talking about the same China that a few days ago made a statement naming Sweden as not caring about muslims?
Besides, I don't see how Russia losing is in the interest of China in the slightest. They'd lose an obvious ally in their own conflicts with the US.
Verbose
Deity
HOW would that happen? Not unless the Ukranians successfully march on Moscow.
In this scenario the Russian state has already collapsed I'd say. Well, it's a possibility, but if that happens all the massive amount of land Russia once took from China would more or less by default revert to China. The "Century of Humilitation" of China by westerners might have been inaugurated by the British, but it was the Russian who lopped of the really huge chunks of geopolitical real estate. China will meet whetever "westerners" (the Ukranians perhaps) somewhere in the middle in that kind of scenario.
