Self-rule and Amnesty for Rebel-held Ukrainian territories

[FriendlyFire]

Russia is unusual among the major economies in that it has its own resources.

Or you could you know scroll down a bit and read more regarding what makes Russian economy tick ?

Russian leaders repeatedly spoke of the need to diversify the economy away from its dependence on oil and gas and foster a high-technology sector.[56] In 2012 oil, gas and petroleum products accounted for over 70% of total exports.[26] This economic model appeared to show its limits, when after years of strong performance, Russian economy expanded by a mere 1.3% in 2013

Foreign investment in Russia is very low. Cumulative investment from U.S. sources of about $4 billion are about the same as U.S. investment in Costa Rica. Over the medium-to-long term, Russian companies that do not invest to increase their competitiveness will find it harder either to expand exports or protect their recent domestic market gains from higher quality imports

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#cite_note-EIA-26

What about China?

Pretty good description of Chinese economy.
Which in contrast with Russian economy is built on different economic principle

The socialist market economy[17] of China is the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP and by purchasing power parity after the United States.[1][18] It is the world's fastest-growing major economy, with growth rates averaging 10% over the past 30 years.[19]

China is a global hub for manufacturing, and is both largest manufacturing economy in the world and the largest exporter of goods.[20] China is also the world's fastest growing consumer market and second largest importer of goods.[21]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China

 

[Timsup2nothin]

What about China?

China doesn't produce anywhere near enough oil to meet their needs now. They are currently at about 20% of the consumption they would have if they were as fully industrialized as a 'western' power. If they achieve that, which is basically their objective, they would be consuming all the oil currently produced in the Middle East.

 

[Agent327]

Interesting. Russia has also more than quadrupled GDP in the same period. And now also has highways and world class stadiums. Does it mean it happened because we are not associated with Poland anymore?

A better question might be which citizens profit form this quadrupled GDP growth in free, unassociated-with-Poland Russia.

More on topic: the Kremlin called the autonomy and amnesty accepted by Ukrainian parliament 'a step in the right direction'. Let's see what the Eastern Ukrainian 'self defense forces' response is.

 

[LamaGT]

Or you could you know scroll down a bit and read more regarding what makes Russian economy tick ?





Pretty good description of Chinese economy.
Which in contrast with Russian economy is built on different economic principle

It's interesting that growth in most of Europe and even China is slower in the 2010s, with Russia actually having the highest growth rate in 2012 among other European nations. Of course in 2014 it's likely going to sink more, but it looks like the journalists saying that Russia is falling down haven't taken a long stare at their own economies.

 

[red_elk]

Or you could just read the wiki ?
Resource booms last only so long you know.

Oil prices were growing until 2007, then they achieved the current level and last 7 years, they are oscillating around 90$/barrel mark. And GDP growth in Russia exceeds average EU one in all these years, except 2009.

A better question might be which citizens profit form this quadrupled GDP growth in free, unassociated-with-Poland Russia.

Pretty much all citizens benefit from this. Both mean and median income have grown substantially. Median household income in Russia is now on a level between Czech. Rep. and Slovakia and continue growing. It can possibly be mitigated by current sanctions related to Crimea, but it's well worth it.
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/355013...es/Russia_houshold_income_trends_Sep_2013.pdf

 

[warpus]

Did Poland need the EU persée to achieve that? It was actually well on its way when it joined in 2004.

A lot of the infrastructure, most certainly. The EU is funding a lot of it.

I thought you gave quadrupling of Polish GDP as one of the reasons to join EU. Ukraine also has example of Russia which did the same without joining EU, and Kazakhstan, which also did the same without turning its butt to Russia.

It's the reason Ukrainians want to join EU, not the reason why I necessarily think it's a good idea for them to do so (I do, but that's beside the point in this case). I think staying in Russia's sphere would help them more in the short term. The EU is more of a long term project that will last decades.

I believe the original claim of mine was that it's obvious why they want to join the EU - they think it will bring them prosperity in the long run.. It's something for their children, not for them necessarily. Poland is just an example of very successful EU integration, that's why I threw it out there.

I think a lot of Ukrainians will also see Russia's relative economic prosperity as a function of Russian natural resources and energy supplies. They might not necessarily see their own country moving in such a direction since they lack those resources. This is just a guess, but when they look westward they instead see economies built on free trade and other such principles - economies that should last and improve rather than be tied to natural resources which will one day run out.

My opinion of the Ukrainian perspective is that all in all they understand the benefits of both, but see a lot more benefit in joining the west as a long term strategy. Poland sees the same benefits and has really worked hard to reform the economy and get integrated with other western nations. It's taken a while, but the benefits are already apparent.

I'm afraid that's wishful thinking. If you see both opinion polls in Russia or Russian posters here, you can notice they either put their head in the sand and claim there have been no Russian army on Ukraine, or they actively condone it.

Over time more and more people are going to be questioning things. The soldier's wives, relatives, friends, family members.. More and more questions are going to pop up, the economy is going to get worse, and so on.

I agree it's partially wishful thinking, since we have so little of the information of what's really going on. So who knows.. But over time, it should be more and more uncomfortable for Russia to directly support the rebels. (With troops, etc.)

Polish GDP and GDP per capita hasn't risen any faster after it joined the EU, same thing for pretty much every single recent EU member. In Eastern Europe, GDP was steadily growing roughly since 2000 until 2008, including in Ukraine. For most countries including Poland, growth these past few years has been slow .

..

You have highways now because your economy did not take a massive plunge in the 90s after an economical, political and fiscal void, creating an oligarchy and massive corruption.

Point taken.

I was using the example of Poland's increased GDP as an example of what Ukrainians see in the far future for their country, if they move westward rather than eastward. I don't think they see EU membership as a silver bullet that's going to solve all their problems, but rather as a sign that they're moving westward, and in the "right" direction. I think they're more looking at Poland and saying: "Look! Look what's possible when you join Europe.".. They could also point at Germany and say the same, but Poland is a better example because membership has been far more recent.

The EU has thrown a lot of money at Polish infrastructure projects by the way. I have no idea how much of an economic boom it has been to the country, but it can't be a minor. New highways, railways, Euro 2012 related projects, stadiums, trams, public transit.. We'd have built some of that stuff without the EU eventually, but EU money funding a lot of them really helps.

 

[red_elk]

I believe the original claim of mine was that it's obvious why they want to join the EU - they think it will bring them prosperity in the long run.

Well, yes, that's basically what I said earlier. They hope the EU (Germany) will pour money into their economy, help to rebuild their infrastructure and drag them out of their poverty.

This is just a guess, but when they look westward they instead see economies built on free trade and other such principles - economies that should last and improve rather than be tied to natural resources which will one day run out.

Russia's dependence on natural resources is rather an outcome of free trade, free market regulations and its integration into world economy. For example, Norway has the similar dependence simply because it has a lot of oil. Drilling oil and mining other resources, investing in natural resources sector, is more profitable than doing other business, because other countries in the world need these resources and willing to pay money for them.

 

[Agent327]

Pretty much all citizens benefit from this. Both mean and median income have grown substantially. Median household income in Russia is now on a level between Czech. Rep. and Slovakia and continue growing. It can possibly be mitigated by current sanctions related to Crimea, but it's well worth it.
http://gallery.mailchimp.com/355013...es/Russia_houshold_income_trends_Sep_2013.pdf

Good. Let's hope the Russian federation can keep up this reduction in poverty. Which raises the question why a more prosperous Russia should feel the need to dabble in dubious foreign adventures.

Russia's dependence on natural resources is rather an outcome of free trade, free market regulations and its integration into world economy. For example, Norway has the similar dependence simply because it has a lot of oil. Drilling oil and mining other resources, investing in natural resources sector, is more profitable than doing other business, because other countries in the world need these resources and willing to pay money for them.

No, that's not it. It's a lack of diversification on the part of Russia, which is a very different country than say, Saudi Arabia. It is remarkable that an industrialized country such as Russia (which, say Saudi Arabia is not) should turn from an exporter of industrial products to an importer of such products and an exporter of raw materials. In the long run that is not a healthy development - although granted this trend has already started in the Communist era, it hasn't been reversed since. Far from it.

 

[Tahuti]

A lot of the infrastructure, most certainly. The EU is funding a lot of it.

Again, was the EU indispensible? You'd figure sovereignty is worth more than some money.

 

[red_elk]

No, that's not it. It's a lack of diversification on the part of Russia, which is a very different country than say, Saudi Arabia. It is remarkable that an industrialized country such as Russia (which, say Saudi Arabia is not) should turn from an exporter of industrial products to an importer of such products and an exporter of raw materials. In the long run that is not a healthy development - although granted this trend has already started in the Communist era, it hasn't been reversed since. Far from it.

This doesn't contradict with point I made. Diversification doesn't come out as a natural result of free trade. Free market regulations favor specialization of Russian economy on export of natural resources, and diversification requires the opposite things - state intervention in economy, subsidies.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

No, that's not it. It's a lack of diversification on the part of Russia, which is a very different country than say, Saudi Arabia. It is remarkable that an industrialized country such as Russia (which, say Saudi Arabia is not) should turn from an exporter of industrial products to an importer of such products and an exporter of raw materials. In the long run that is not a healthy development - although granted this trend has already started in the Communist era, it hasn't been reversed since. Far from it.

Lack of diversification is usually just a question of time. Saudi Arabia has been 'frozen' by their primary oil customer in order to prevent them from developing the internal market for their oil. Russia has grown their resource development industry faster than other sectors, but eventually those sectors will catch up, as long as they don't allow their primary customers (western Europe) to enact a similar freeze. As their internal market grows they will export less.

The universal problem in oil is China. Their internal market already consumes their own production plus they are the number one importer in the world (I think...they may not have quite surpassed the US yet, but if they haven't they are about to). They are fully capable of creating a market that can consume all currently available exports. That would leave the US relying on their own production (ouch), and Europe pretty much out in the cold.

 

[Tahuti]

This doesn't contradict with point I made. Diversification doesn't come out as a natural result of free trade. Free market regulations favor specialization of Russian economy on export of natural resources, and diversification requires the opposite things - state intervention in economy, subsidies.

You don't 'regulate' free trade, you abolish protectionist regulations.

However, protectionist policies have to be handled with care. Brazil utterly failed when it attempted to create a computer industry by setting an import quota. Likewise, it simply won't do for nations like the Netherlands.

Russia can develop a powerful IT industry, and is in fact already developing one. However, IT requires innovation and competition, as well as plenty of skilled workers and a favourable entrepreneurial environment, in the department of which Russia is simply overregulated. Protectionism generally works best for jolting heavy industry and agriculture so any protectionist legislation Russia is to enact should be focused on these areas.

 

[LamaGT]

A lot of the infrastructure, most certainly. The EU is funding a lot of it.



It's the reason Ukrainians want to join EU, not the reason why I necessarily think it's a good idea for them to do so (I do, but that's beside the point in this case). I think staying in Russia's sphere would help them more in the short term. The EU is more of a long term project that will last decades.

I believe the original claim of mine was that it's obvious why they want to join the EU - they think it will bring them prosperity in the long run.. It's something for their children, not for them necessarily. Poland is just an example of very successful EU integration, that's why I threw it out there.

I think a lot of Ukrainians will also see Russia's relative economic prosperity as a function of Russian natural resources and energy supplies. They might not necessarily see their own country moving in such a direction since they lack those resources. This is just a guess, but when they look westward they instead see economies built on free trade and other such principles - economies that should last and improve rather than be tied to natural resources which will one day run out.

My opinion of the Ukrainian perspective is that all in all they understand the benefits of both, but see a lot more benefit in joining the west as a long term strategy. Poland sees the same benefits and has really worked hard to reform the economy and get integrated with other western nations. It's taken a while, but the benefits are already apparent.



Over time more and more people are going to be questioning things. The soldier's wives, relatives, friends, family members.. More and more questions are going to pop up, the economy is going to get worse, and so on.

I agree it's partially wishful thinking, since we have so little of the information of what's really going on. So who knows.. But over time, it should be more and more uncomfortable for Russia to directly support the rebels. (With troops, etc.)



Point taken.

I was using the example of Poland's increased GDP as an example of what Ukrainians see in the far future for their country, if they move westward rather than eastward. I don't think they see EU membership as a silver bullet that's going to solve all their problems, but rather as a sign that they're moving westward, and in the "right" direction. I think they're more looking at Poland and saying: "Look! Look what's possible when you join Europe.".. They could also point at Germany and say the same, but Poland is a better example because membership has been far more recent.

The EU has thrown a lot of money at Polish infrastructure projects by the way. I have no idea how much of an economic boom it has been to the country, but it can't be a minor. New highways, railways, Euro 2012 related projects, stadiums, trams, public transit.. We'd have built some of that stuff without the EU eventually, but EU money funding a lot of them really helps.

The problem in Ukraine is that SOME people want to move westward, while other people want to move eastwards, and other more sensible people want to maintain non-alignment. This whole mess started because the people wanting to move westwards pissed on those who want closer ties with Russia. In such a polarized environment the sensible course of action is neutrality, or otherwise civil wars might ensue.
Economically, since Russia covers 30% of imports and exports, neutrality is the only sensible option.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The problem in Ukraine is that SOME people want to move westward, while other people want to move eastwards, and other more sensible people want to maintain non-alignment. This whole mess started because the people wanting to move westwards pissed on those who want closer ties with Russia. In such a polarized environment the sensible course of action is neutrality, or otherwise civil wars might ensue.
Economically, since Russia covers 30% of imports and exports, neutrality is the only sensible option.

Unfortunately the EU/US doesn't allow neutrality...you are either with them in their holy crusade against the evil Russians, or you're agin'em.

 

[Akka]

Over time more and more people are going to be questioning things. The soldier's wives, relatives, friends, family members.. More and more questions are going to pop up, the economy is going to get worse, and so on.

I agree it's partially wishful thinking, since we have so little of the information of what's really going on. So who knows.. But over time, it should be more and more uncomfortable for Russia to directly support the rebels. (With troops, etc.)

Oh, on the long run, sure. People blindly supporting Russia here will end up changing their mind or being blamed by history in a few decades (if that long), like the ones who supported Pinochet or Salazar.

But the problem is : will Ukraine survives long enough to benefit from this, or will it be ruined, bankrupt and maybe dismembered by then ?

Unfortunately the EU/US doesn't allow neutrality...you are either with them in their holy crusade against the evil Russians, or you're agin'em.

Funny how it's exactly the inverse of reality.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Funny how it's exactly the inverse of reality.

Funnier how you see exactly half of the reality...the half that makes your side look like the 'good guys' while they are nothing but a mirror image of the 'bad guys'.

 

[Akka]

Funnier how you see exactly half of the reality...the half that makes your side look like the 'good guys' while they are nothing but a mirror image of the 'bad guys'.

Considering how Russia has pressured and then invaded (twice) Ukraine to prevent it for being anything except a vassal state, I'd say you're the one with selective blindness.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Considering how Russia has pressured and then invaded (twice) Ukraine to prevent it for being anything except a vassal state, I'd say you're the one with selective blindness.

I see Russia doing the same basic thing as the EU does. I just don't see it with the 'good guys/bad guys' filter that you use all the time.

 

[Borachio]

Oligarchs don't tend to have the interests of anyone in mind but the oligarchs, though.

I think I'm lightly biased towards the EU. What with its democratic traditions and institutions. Ineffectual though it may often be.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Oligarchs don't tend to have the interests of anyone in mind but the oligarchs, though.

I think I'm lightly biased towards the EU. What with its democratic traditions and institutions. Ineffectual though it may often be.

The EU has just as much, if not more, tradition (and current involvement) in oligarchy as it has in democracy.