[BTS] SGOTM 26 - Home Slices

[Mitchum]

Well played, LC! It looks like we're in a great position. All of this planning to set up PP, Corp, (Eng), Chem, SM, Bio, Lib and Med in 10 turns.

Kait, you're up and I'm on deck!

 

[Mitchum]

Should I sift back through the thread and update the AI/WFYABTA post on page 1? Will that information be useful in a kill 'em all game?

 

[Kaitzilla]

I have the Save.

Great work LowtherCastle.
Putting hammers into Great Library paid off bigly.

The war with Sitting Bull looks like it is probably a Go.
We'll probably do as you suggest and bribe SB to Nationhood, bribe Peter to DOW, then DOW SB and drop off Musket + Chariot 1S of Poverty Point.

First I'll simulate our attack a bunch of times and see how often we fail to burn the city with 2 CG II Archers and a Dog Soldier defending.
All of our attacks should be above 50% odds which is exactly what we want in a raiding war for xp and pillage gold.

SB's capital still has 2 Archers, 1 Dog Soldier, and 1 Catapult.
Poverty Point is still at 20% defenses, a miracle.

Few screenshots:

Spoiler :

I see the capital has pillaged its farm.
That means our 1 in 500 chance of jungle spread each turn is back for National Park on that tile.
Should go up to 4 in 500 chance with Preserve I think.

 

[Kaitzilla]

149 2bulb SM, finish it

Start preserving T150 huh?
We probably want to start 2E1N of capital and 2W1S of capital.

But 1st we should chop forests 4S of capital and 5N1E of capital to make National Park easier to whip.

**Edit**
Whipping National Park (300) in capital with 75% production bonus gives 35 per pop.
Whipping with 100% production bonus gives 40 per pop.

 

[WastinTime]

Should I sift back through the thread and update the AI/WFYABTA post on page 1? Will that information be useful in a kill 'em all game?

Nah, other than calendar & drama, what can we get? Unless we really push Peter for some fringe tech. Let's see:
MIl.Tradition
Communism
(those both have a huge wonder attached)
Maybe he does Rep Parts while we go for Radio.

 

[WastinTime]

First I'll simulate our attack a bunch of times and see how often we fail to burn the city with 2 CG II Archers and a Dog Soldier defending.

I'd like to know how that compares to unloading all 6 units t146 and raze 147.

Science not working the horse?

 

[MirrorGuard]

Great job LC!
It seems there's not enough ep for a revolt in PP?

 

[Kaitzilla]

Great job LC!
It seems there's not enough ep for a revolt in PP?

That's a good point.
Did I factor in losing the any Open Borders bonus our spy is getting in Poverty Point?

Spy
T144 - Unload in Poverty Point and immediately start building spy bonus
T146 - With -20% cost from waiting, trigger City Revolt for 0.8*754 = 604 out of our total of 612

Right now on T145 we have 631 in Sitting Bull and City Revolt for Poverty Point is 741

Mmm, oh ya!
We are in Mercantilism, so there should be no -20% trade route bonus factoring into 741 cost.
Next turn on T146 if our spy is still alive, city revolt should cost 0.8*741 = 593 in Poverty point since our spy has a -20% cost wait bonus.

I'd like to know how that compares to unloading all 6 units t146 and raze 147.

Science not working the horse?

Can Sitting Bull finish Feudalism and upgrade his Archers to Longbows on the same turn?
I've seen the AI do some things like that before which I did not understand how it was possible.

Then again, double DOW, double blockade on T146 might push Sitting Bull to 2T for Feudalism.

An extra turn might see a Dog Soldier drafted, another one slow built, 40% borders, and our Spy dead because of closed borders increasing his odds of dying in between turns.

 

[WastinTime]

Peter is Cautious with SB, so there will be no Peter DoW on SB.
It would blow my mind if he drafted Dogs. I'd like to see that in a test before we even consider it a reality.
It would also blow my mind if we see longbows instantly.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Just because Peter is Pleased with Sitting Bull doesn't mean he won't DOW him.

Spoiler :

It would also blow my mind if we see longbows instantly.

I'll do some testing to see if it is just another thing I imagined seeing.

 

[WastinTime]

Just because Peter is Pleased with Sitting Bull doesn't mean he won't DOW him.

I wasn't clear with my statement. And you mis-read it. Peter is Cautious
I know we can have him DoW. We don't want to. The only reason I wanted him to was so we wouldn't get -1 diplo hit with Peter when they were Pleased

 

[Kaitzilla]

It would also blow my mind if we see longbows instantly.

I'll do some testing to see if it is just another thing I imagined seeing.

Testing confirms that the AI cannot both complete Feudalism and upgrade to Longbows at the same time.

I guess in my game long ago someone traded it my war target who had 1 turn left to go on Feud., and then they upgraded to Longbows causing me to explode in anger.

Poverty Point has 6 in a build.
No way he can make a Dog Soldier in 1 turn.

It looks like all 6 units attacking T147 might be worth it, even if the spy dies and borders go to 40%.

**Edit**
Fixed Longblow typo.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I wasn't clear with my statement. And you mis-read it. Peter is Cautious
I know we can have him DoW. We don't want to. The only reason I wanted him to was so we wouldn't get -1 diplo hit with Peter when they were Pleased

Oh I see.
Keep Peter out of it and teching full speed.
Take the -1 diplo hit.

Isn't the danger of Peter founding 1 more city, getting a spread from Tao shrine, switching to Tao, and us unable to bribe him back to Confu+Friendly a bigger danger?
Pleased Tao Peter won't trade us Engineering or any other fancy tech.

I kind of want Peter in our war.
That way, even if he switches to Taoism it isn't a biggie.


Peter looks Pleased with Sitting Bull to me.
If we DOW SB first, we get -1 with Peter.

Spoiler :

 

[WastinTime]

Peter looks Pleased with Sitting Bull to me.

Crap, I was looking at the other way SB feelings for Peter.

 

[WastinTime]

I kind of want Peter in our war.

I don't wanna mess with his Mojo on Engineering. Any ideas? Can we get him into the war after Eng? Can the war wait?

 

[Kaitzilla]

I don't wanna mess with his Mojo on Engineering. Any ideas? Can we get him into the war after Eng? Can the war wait?

AI's do sometimes slow down teching after a DOW.

We could bribe Peter into war, and then since he has a higher power rating than SB, immediately bribe him to cease fire after we DOW.

The cost would be.....

Are we currently at Friendly with Tao Peter if he switched religions right now?
Is saving -1 diplo worth such a crazy cost?

Peter currently goes to -3 diplo if he switches to Tao due to Tao holy city.
https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/civ-illustrated-1-know-your-enemy.478563/page-2#post-11931780

Here is our diplo with Peter 3 turns ago:

Spoiler :

Uhh, hopefully our +3 shared civic bonus with Bureaucracy doesn't decay back to +1?
Guess we will find out when we switch back T148.

 

[WastinTime]

I may have a solution.
SB gets Nationalism, then nationhood for Music. No DoW
146 gift Constitution? or currency? or whatever it takes to get him off the bottom of the score.
Peter drops the +1 puny Civ diplo and goes to Cautious.
We DoW and either unload 6 units and amphib capture or 147 capture.

 

[WastinTime]

146 gift Constitution? or currency? or whatever it takes to get him off the bottom of the score.

What do you guys think of possible gift of MC?
He would waste hammers on Triremes instead of longbows. And it would take him forever to get a trireme anyway.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I may have a solution.
SB gets Nationalism, then nationhood for Music. No DoW
146 gift Constitution? or currency? or whatever it takes to get him off the bottom of the score.
Peter drops the +1 puny Civ diplo and goes to Cautious.
We DoW and either unload 6 units and amphib capture or 147 capture.

"Your small civilization is no threat to us" +1 diplo is quite buggy when not all AI are met I think.
Check out this test game.

Spoiler :

In this test game we are in bottom half of score among known AI and Mongolia won't give us +1 diplo for being a small civ. All 3 unknown AI have a very high score.

Then after us meeting 1 of the unknown AI, Mongolia does give +1 diplo for us being a small civ?

Anyway, I have no idea how many techs Sitting Bull would need to boost score to drop the +1 diplo from Russia for being a small civ.

What do you guys think of possible gift of MC?
He would waste hammers on Triremes instead of longbows. And it would take him forever to get a trireme anyway.

I really like having an absolute naval advantage.
No MC trade plz.

 

[WastinTime]

Prepare to have your mind blown.
tl;dr We have to move SB up one notch on the rankings

+1 your small civ is no threat

This is based on Leader, Ranks, and # players.

So, when RankDiffAttitude * rankDiff / (allPlayers +1)
is >= 1, you get +1 attitude
allPlayers is all players, even dead or unmet.

In your example, K. Khan has a iBetterRankDifferenceAttitudeChange of 3

KK doesn't give us +1 because rank diff is ours (3) - his (1) = 2

3 * 2 / (7 + 1) < 1

Adding Egypt, our rank is 4, so rankDiff is 3.

3 * 3 / 8 > 1, so now we get the +1.

Ethiopia got the +1 with or without Egypt.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter is a little tougher

iBetterRankDifferenceAttitudeChange of 2

SB (rank 6) - Peter (rank2) = 4

2 * 4 / 8 = 1, so SB gets +1 diplo

Ergo, all we have to do is get SB above one player on the score graph. Rank diff would be 3.

Arabia 754
Holy Rome is 744
SB is 674
So a couple tech gifts should do it after Nationalism
Music and currency might be enough, but I think we should consider MC again, cus I don't really want to give Constitution (something Peter doesn't have), nor are we giving Paper.
Or, we could let him get Feudal, but no one likes that idea I'll bet.
Or population can change. SB can grow, Sal or Holy Rome could whip (or grow)