Soapbox:Time we stop acting like an asshat of a species before we go out like dinos

[Winner]

Winner, we can see planets at the distance of light years. Finding some rocks this size isn't impossible if we tried - especially if we start building up our space infrastructure which would effectivley increase the number of 'eye' out in space looking dor this stuff.

That's because we know where to look, and mostly we find them by indirect ways.

It is certainly possible to find pretty much all LARGE (let's say over 100 m) asteroids threatening Earth which orbit in the inner Solar System. Comets are fickle as usual, but we can find them too. Doing something about them is a different thing which needs to be taken seriously, I agree. Right now, if we found one was about to hit in 3 years, my bets would be on the asteroid.

MEDIUM asteroids (like the one which is passing Earth right now, 40 metres in diameter) can be found soon enough to give us time to prepare provided we invest in the kind of global defence plan I mentioned. Let's pre-place nuclear-armed interceptors in high orbits and have them ready in case another Tunguska was about to happen over, say, the UK, which would have led to a large loss of life and extreme economic damage - things that justify the expense and risk of trying to eliminate the threat.

SMALL asteroids measuring in metres cannot possibly cause much damage beyond a loud bang, shattered windows, and road accidents caused by the distraction. They can be found in time with our existing infrastructure, provided we use it to look for incoming satellite-sized rocks. The US, Russia, China, France and who knows who else are already tracking spy satellites in LEO, so it is just a matter of looking a bit beyond it.

And once you have found them, you can keep track of them to keep a warning. You won't have to send a last minute deflextion mission because you'd have plenty of advanced warning.

Well, again - it depends on how far you want to spot them. Inside the Moon's orbit, or a bit beyond? Doable. 2 AUs away? Veeeeeery difficult and not worth the cost.

 

[Peck of Arabia]

Incredibly, this news story was an absolute last priority of what BBC producers think the viewing public want to know. This was the order of the main stories on BBC's lunchtime news

1 Horsemeat scandal
2 Horse meat in school meals
3 Oscar Pistorius in Court
4 Soap Actor arrested for child molestation
5 ex-MP having expenses claims challenged
6 Something else
7 Asteroid crashes into earth, but it's ok coz it's in, like, Russia or something

I gave up after the fifth story, if it wasn't for this forum, I'd have no idea this had happened!

In short, we're doomed by our indifference and parochial obsessions, so I suggest instead living rakish, hedonistic lifestyles, full of debauchery and over-indulgence until the next one comes to finish us off. The counter-proposition, if you will

 

[emzie]

You are familiar with radar, right?

We have the technology to find these but our current searches are extremely limited in scope, restricted to the visible wave lengths and reliant on past observational data. We can do better but don't because it's not a priority.

Since radar isn't passive (it requires a broadcast to ping off an object) I'm skeptical it'd be of much use at detection. A circle with a 1 million KM radius creates a sphere with ~12.6m square kilometres. That's a lot to ask of a radar system.

I quoted you before you added some stuff. Question: you acknowledge this could have killed a lot of people, so what difference does it make if it couldn't have thoroughly wiped a city from the map? It could wreak massive death and it was the size of a kitchen table. Objects this size are not rare and we need to wake up to the danger.

They're not rare, but they're next-to-invisible until they're about to hit. I'm concerned with events that could kill millions of people and conceding these smaller, more frequent events are unavoidable for the near future.

My gut is telling me though that this was bigger than a kitchen table.

edit: to build on what Winner is talking about, the reason this post was delayed was I was working out the calculations to find a 3m object at 1 million KM with different wave lengths. It's not easy with passive systems.

 

[Core Imposter]

I'm not exactly sure what if anything could have been done if we knew in advance about this thing.

In my mind, we saw the lightning hit St. Peters, we've seen this, its all part of end times prophecy. There is no reason to panic. God is in control.

(If Godless disregard the last two sentences.)

 

[Neomega]

I'm not exactly sure what if anything could have been done if we knew in advance about this thing.

In my mind, we saw the lightning hit St. Peters, we've seen this, its all part of end times prophecy. There is no reason to panic. God is in control.

(If Godless disregard the last two sentences.)

Do you think you are one of the 144,000?
Sure seem to be millions of Christians who think they are.

Also, it says Christ is coming back with a SWORD.
Who did Christ hang out with?
Prostitutes.

You think he is coming to chop down the prostitutes, or the Church of Laodicea?
Who do you think god finds more pious, the Muslims who dress much like they did in his time, or the botox enhanced plastic Christians of the United States?
Bible says God will spew them from his mouth.
If there is a Laodecia, it certainly is the Christians of the United States.

Yeah. I pray for the tribulation too. I'd love to see all these people who thought they were Christians but are actually nothing more than flag worshipping nationalists curse God for not rapturing them.

I've seen your hate. You have no love or understanding or mercy in your heart for your fellow man. Your idea of ministry to muslims is dropping bombs on them.

And then it's guillotine time for those without the mark. 7 years. I'll definitely be signing up for the honors of pulling the cord a thousand times.

God will need helpers meting out his judgement. Sign me up, big guy in the sky.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

We knew a larger one was passing by the Earth and we were tracking it,

Amateurs spotted the larger one, last year. Not such a good record itself.

 

[TomYo689]

do you think you are one of the 144,000?
Sure seem to be millions of christians who think they are.

Also, it says christ is coming back with a sword.
Who did christ hang out with?
Prostitutes.

You think he is coming to chop down the prostitutes, or the church of laodicea?
Who do you think god finds more pious, the muslims who dress much like they did in his time, or the botox enhanced plastic christians of the united states?
Bible says god will spew them from his mouth.
If there is a laodecia, it certainly is the christians of the united states.

Yeah. I pray for the tribulation too. I'd love to see all these people who thought they were christians but are actually nothing more than flag worshipping nationalists curse god for not rapturing them.

I've seen your hate. You have no love or understanding or mercy in your heart for your fellow man. Your idea of ministry to muslims is dropping bombs on them.

And then it's guillotine time for those without the mark. 7 years. I'll definitely be signing up for the honors of pulling the cord a thousand times.

God will need helpers meting out his judgement. Sign me up, big guy in the sky.

7/10

 

[tokala]

My gut is telling me though that this was bigger than a kitchen table.

In some of the office camera videos it looks like people got knocked of their feet.
Seems a pretty large effect for a supposed ~10 ton object exploding some 100 km away.
10 tons at 10...30km/s would be about 0.1...1 kt TNT equivalent, wouldn't it?

edit: to build on what Winner is talking about, the reason this post was delayed was I was working out the calculations to find a 3m object at 1 million KM with different wave lengths. It's not easy with passive systems.

The ~50m rock about to buzz earth is expected to peak around 7m visually. Your values amount to about 1/15 of the diameter, 30 times the distance and you get ~20m visually.
Probably right at the threshold for those sky surveys with wide-angle telescopes looking for NEOs.
A bit smaller, a bit further away and you won't find it unless you have a fairly good idea where to look for it.

Amateurs spotted the larger one, last year. Not such a good record itself.

http://www.minorplanets.org/OLS/

Not exactly amateuers, but the equipment they used might be not that much beyond what's available to the dedicated (and well-off) amateuer astronomer.

 

[Core Imposter]

Do you think you are one of the 144,000?
Sure seem to be millions of Christians who think they are.

Also, it says Christ is coming back with a SWORD.
Who did Christ hang out with?
Prostitutes.

You think he is coming to chop down the prostitutes, or the Church of Laodicea?
Who do you think god finds more pious, the Muslims who dress much like they did in his time, or the botox enhanced plastic Christians of the United States?
Bible says God will spew them from his mouth.
If there is a Laodecia, it certainly is the Christians of the United States.

Yeah. I pray for the tribulation too. I'd love to see all these people who thought they were Christians but are actually nothing more than flag worshipping nationalists curse God for not rapturing them.

I've seen your hate. You have no love or understanding or mercy in your heart for your fellow man. Your idea of ministry to muslims is dropping bombs on them.

And then it's guillotine time for those without the mark. 7 years. I'll definitely be signing up for the honors of pulling the cord a thousand times.

God will need helpers meting out his judgement. Sign me up, big guy in the sky.

God bless you, God save you, and God keep you.

 

[Neomega]

God bless you, God save you, and God keep you.

Don't tell God what to do. He already has a plan and grand design. And I am part of that design. God's will will be done.

Do you think his prophets will be loved or despised in the end times?

How do you feel about me?

 

[Winner]

Can there be one thread free of religious trolls please? One? Just one, is that too much to ask?

---

BTW, hobbsyoyo, speaking of what people pay attention to, here's what people are following on BBC website at the moment:

1:
Meteor injures hundreds in Russia

2:
Disabled piglet gets tiny wheelchair

3:
Meteor: A 'ball of fire' in the skies

4:
Asteroid set for record near-miss

5:
Child murderer killed in prison

A meteoroid or a disabled piglet on a wheelchair? Ah, the agony of choice

 

[Borachio]

Piglet, please.



And was the child murderer murdered by another child? How old is this child murderer?

Meteorites, schmeterorites!

 

[AdamCrock]

We could put our satellite network to use and instead of spying on Putin's bathroom we can spy on threats from space. Moonbase would also be a significant boost in our aspirations toward space-faring. If we would aim to colonize moon->mars one of the major problems would probably be supplying oxygen rich ice blocks of water to the said station on a regular basis We also need to invent enclosed ecosystems to grow plants to eat something else besides astronauts paste all the time

All in all I agree with hobbs, rivalry among nations, wars, commercialism could be our undoing and we will probably not wake up untill it's to late ... well life's hard

 

[ace99]

This is why you need to starting using Al Jazeera: http://www.aljazeera.com/

Hundreds injured in Russia meteor crashing

Thousands flee fighting in Syria's east

Pro-Morsi supporters rally in Cairo

Palestinians rally for hunger striker

Paralympic star Pistorius appears in court

Bangladesh war crimes protest turn deadly

Stricken US cruise ship passengers disembark

Kenya's Kenyatta wants ICC trial delayed

Bahrain to investigate latest protest deaths

Pakistani soldier killed in Indian shooting

 

[duckstab]

Winner, we can see planets at the distance of light years.

Yes, but this is using specific techniques like measuring the gravitational perturbation of the parent star or observing the planet's transit. It hardly follows from this that we can easily detect small dark objects close to home.

Finding some rocks this size isn't impossible if we tried - especially if we start building up our space infrastructure which would effectivley increase the number of 'eye' out in space looking dor this stuff.

And once you have found them, you can keep track of them to keep a warning. You won't have to send a last minute deflextion mission because you'd have plenty of advanced warning.

I don't know if we can actually determine an object's trajectory with the degree of accuracy needed to say, issue a meteor impact warning for a specific city with enough warning to evacuate it. And objects entering the atmosphere often break apart in stages, scattering debris over a wide area. When the Mir space station was deliberately deorbited in 2001, they had to issue cautionary statements for a large chunk of the south Pacific, for example.

However, I ultimately agree with your overall sentiment. It's worth investing some money and effort to better understand, predict, and mitigate the threats posed by near-Earth objects of all sizes.

 

[Gucumatz]

Hobbs, how small of space debris/asteroids can we detect currently? Any reason why this bit wasn't detected?

 

[Borachio]

Teheran Times, most read:

What China’s missile intercept test means
U.S. cop killer 'believed dead' inside cabin
Afghan president welcomes U.S. troops withdrawal
Russia to continue Syria arms supply
Pope asks for support after decision to resign
Indian embassy shelters ex-Maldives president
NATO airstrike kills 9 Afghan women, children
London University professor predicts Iran-Egypt ties will become stronger
Battle for the soul of Egypt
Persepolis fights back to defeat valiant Gahar
Larijani discusses bilateral issues with Pakistani president
Egypt floods Gaza tunnels to cut Palestinian lifeline

 

[Gucumatz]

Fascinating seeing the differences. I personally use CNN, Al Jazeera, and Deutsche Welle. I may add Tehran to my bookmarks just to see their stances now and then.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

http://www.minorplanets.org/OLS/

Not exactly amateuers, but the equipment they used might be not that much beyond what's available to the dedicated (and well-off) amateuer astronomer.

I said amateurs in my news source

 

[hobbsyoyo]

It is certainly possible to find pretty much all LARGE (let's say over 100 m) asteroids threatening Earth which orbit in the inner Solar System. Comets are fickle as usual, but we can find them too. Doing something about them is a different thing which needs to be taken seriously, I agree. Right now, if we found one was about to hit in 3 years, my bets would be on the asteroid.

Rhetoric aside, I bet on humanity.

SMALL asteroids measuring in metres cannot possibly cause much damage beyond a loud bang, shattered windows, and road accidents caused by the distraction. They can be found in time with our existing infrastructure, provided we use it to look for incoming satellite-sized rocks. The US, Russia, China, France and who knows who else are already tracking spy satellites in LEO, so it is just a matter of looking a bit beyond it.

I am saying we need to go beyond what we have now and invest in better detection systems overall.

Also your point on size and its relation with damage is flawed. The engery scales linearly with mass but with the square of velocity. I haven't had time to fact check but I got an email from the asteroid miners at Planetary Resources and they say it had a blast equal to 1000 Hiroshimas. The only estimate on size I have seen yet is table sized. While it sounds like that isn't possible, all it means is it was going very fast.

Well, again - it depends on how far you want to spot them. Inside the Moon's orbit, or a bit beyond? Doable. 2 AUs away? Veeeeeery difficult and not worth the cost.

It is worth the cost to find them all, period. You can't put a value on lives saved.

Plus, you are assuming that we would be doing this with technology of fixed capability (bad assumption) and that there will be no economic returns from the endevour(bad assumption). Already, Planetary Resources is making a business case to launch lots of asteroid finding telescopes and making money of the data and mining the juicy ones.

Since radar isn't passive (it requires a broadcast to ping off an object) I'm skeptical it'd be of much use at detection. A circle with a 1 million KM radius creates a sphere with ~12.6m square kilometres. That's a lot to ask of a radar system.

I am not talking about current ground based systems only. I am talking about making investments to build new, more capable, space based systems. My point is about our future and this problem going forward, not about current capabilites.

They're not rare, but they're next-to-invisible until they're about to hit. I'm concerned with events that could kill millions of people and conceding these smaller, more frequent events are unavoidable for the near future.

This is why we need to start getting serious about this problem.

My gut is telling me though that this was bigger than a kitchen table.

Maybe, but remember the energy released is not only dependent on mass.

edit: to build on what Winner is talking about, the reason this post was delayed was I was working out the calculations to find a 3m object at 1 million KM with different wave lengths. It's not easy with passive systems.

Current systems, maybe.

In some of the office camera videos it looks like people got knocked of their feet.
Seems a pretty large effect for a supposed ~10 ton object exploding some 100 km away.
10 tons at 10...30km/s would be about 0.1...1 kt TNT equivalent, wouldn't it?

Planetary Resources claims it was 1000x Hiroshima, which was roughly 20kt. If it had hit a city, it would have annihilated it (if their estimate is true). It was so powerful the effects were felt 200km away.