Will the Virus Spread to Sports?
An industry built on live entertainment and big crowds wonders what happens if people have to stay at home
The NCAA tournament. Major League Baseball opening day. The Masters golf tournament. The NFL draft, the NBA and NHL playoffs, the Boston Marathon and Olympic qualifiers all over the U.S.
The busiest time of the American sports calendar is coming—if the coronavirus doesn’t come first.
As the global economy braces for the potentially devastating effects of a novel coronavirus that is spreading around the world, few businesses are at greater risk of being impacted than sports. This is a multibillion-dollar industry built on live entertainment, easy travel and mass gatherings, and that makes it especially vulnerable if major cities begin to embrace social distancing, as they have in countries where the virus has already disrupted everyday life. The problem is that there is no work-from-home in sports. The NBA season can’t be played on Slack.
Should games be canceled? Can they be delayed? Will they be played in empty arenas? These are the questions that leagues and governing bodies are scrambling to answer as they size up potentially the biggest disruption to the sports calendar since World War II, and they are constrained by uncertainty as they make contingency plans to keep up with this mysterious pathogen. “It will give March Madness a new meaning,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University.
As corporations begin to prohibit nonessential travel for their employees, American sports leagues are monitoring the situation closely, but there have been no interruptions to schedules yet. In a World Health Organization briefing on coronavirus and sporting events last week, experts warned against canceling mass gatherings for now, while cautioning that risk management was a fluid process.
But a lesson from Asia and Europe is that one day can be normal and the next can be turned upside down. If the U.S. follows the lead of the countries that have already seen outbreaks turn into epidemics, sports leagues could soon be canceling, postponing or playing games without fans, a measure that would’ve seemed drastic last week until it quickly became reality.
In one of the most extreme approaches, Japan all but shut down its sports scene this month. Preseason baseball is being played entirely behind closed doors ahead of Opening Day on March 20. The national soccer and basketball leagues are postponed until mid-March. And the spring sumo tournament— a touchstone of the Japanese calendar— will unfold in an empty arena.
Europe, too, is playing defense. Switzerland banned all gatherings of more than 1,000 people on Friday, leaving its national hockey league to play games behind closed doors. France followed suit on Saturday, temporarily suspending all events of more than 5,000 people that were likely to draw large groups of foreign visitors. The first victim became Sunday’s Paris Half-Marathon, which was expecting more than 40,000 runners. By then Italian soccer had been in turmoil for nearly two weeks. After first ordering that a handful of games near the outbreaks in Northern Italy be played in empty stadiums, the league went one step further last weekend, bumping five matches until mid-May in what it called “an extraordinary public health emergency.” For its next home game against AC Milan, Juventus is now barring fans from certain hard-hit regions and asking others to bring proof of residency.
While none of the U.S. sports leagues have taken similar measures, spectators and investors seem to be considering the possibility. As trillions of dollars were wiped out of the stock market in its worst week since the 2008 financial crash, businesses related to sports were among the biggest losers. Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s stock was down 14.6% last week. Madison Square Garden took a beating, too, finishing the week down 11% even after a slight uptick on Friday.
How effectively banishing fans from sporting events or wiping out schedules would contain the virus as it becomes widespread, however, is a matter of some debate.
“During a pandemic, there’s really not a lot of evidence that canceling mass gatherings is of much benefit,” said Dr. Patricia Daly, the chief of health services at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, which came after the peak of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic. “If you think back to H1N1, you probably don’t recall a lot of cancellations.”
The loudest opposition from athletes themselves has come from the National College Players Association, an athletes’ rights advocacy group, which called on the NCAA to cancel auxiliary events such as meet-and-greets, and urged a serious discussion of holding the NCAA tournament in empty arenas. The first weekend of March Madness is about three weeks away, and the Final Four is scheduled for the weekend of April 4. The NCAA said Monday that it’s “keenly aware of coronavirus” and continues to monitor the situation.
Major League Baseball has more time to make decisions about the status of the season since Opening Day is March 26. As of now, spring training games are still being played across Florida and Arizona, and MLB has been in touch with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services. The sport’s collective bargaining agreement contains a provision for the mandatory establishment of a “safety and healthy advisory committee” to
help handle situations like coronavirus.
The NBA is in a trickier spot with its season in full swing and the playoffs beginning next month. The league’s schedule has become so optimized by computer algorithms in recent years that it operates a bit like a Jenga tower. Take out a few games, and it teeters. Wipe out a few weeks, and it crashes. While some around the league have whispered about the possibility of playing games in empty arenas, the NBA is still coordinating with teams and consulting with the CDC and infectious disease specialists. “The health and safety of our fans, players, teams and employees is paramount,” league spokesman Mike Bass said.
Any delays in the schedules of these leagues, or the NCAA tournament, would almost certainly turn seasons on their heads. But for now they’re in the same position as everyone in the U.S. The only thing they can do is consider their options— and wait.
—Louise Radnofsky contributed to this article.
By
Ben Cohen, Joshua Robinson