Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Game 4 Thread

Was kind of anxious for my Mansa pick given how snug his start was, but RNGesus pulled through. And That Steel Folding Chair Moment from Qin, followed up by the Frederick special! :lol:

Eh, a bit short of a Frederick one still. He at least teched Rifling before Industrialism! (I have seen Fred go straight from muskets to panzers in the past, no joke.)
 
My only general comment on the game right now is: MAN did this suck to watch given that Saladin was my second-largest fantasy bid. Massive L there that puts a real big dent in my chances.

More in a couple of days once I've recovered, maybe...
 
I will post my full post-game analysis later today. Don't have time at the moment so we'll settle for just a LEADER SEEDING WATCH!

First, I neglected to mention this last week, but with his elimination in Game 3, Hannibal is in imminent danger of losing his Pool Two position. He only needs another leader to tie or beat his 24 point total and he's out. In particular, Cyrus or Cathy accomplishing anything in their upcoming games, or Mehmed making the playoffs again, would all be enough to bump him off. (Sal arguably should have grabbed that position this week, but it was not to be...)

Alexander is also not looking great in this regard, but he has more hope. He does have Hannibal as a buffer, and if I understand the seeding system correctly is also guaranteed to remain ahead of the eliminated Mao Zedong. (Even if they end the season with no additional points, Alex had the higher score last season.) Plus, he is still alive and going to the Wildcard, so he has the chance to bolster his position there. Not a great run here but he's not out of options.

Qin and Washington's meager point totals this game did not move them meaningfully towards seeded status, and neither did Frederick or Sitting Bull's stronger performances last week. They all have too low of existing point totals and would need a monster rest of the season in order to even come close.

On the other hand, Mansa Musa's victory this week puts him a mere two points behind Huayna Capac for the spot of #1 ranked leader! If he can nock another win in the playoffs (or second place and a kill, which is less likely IMO) then he will be top dog once again, and it will be hard to argue that it isn't deserved. He now has more career game wins than any other leader... and more than double the amount of any other leader except for Huayna! What a guy.
 
This post ended up taking a very different turn than I had expected when I started to write it.

Sal, Sal, Sal.
How did it all go wrong for my pal?
His whole game right there was looking so fine,
I thought good fantasy scores were mine.
That beautiful start was as good as I thought,
But anticipate that backstab I did not.
Nor did he hold out as well as he might,
Instead he all too soon embraced the night.
He never did finish that castle in Baghdad.
That siege might have gone differently if he had.
But no! He chose to instead use the whip
And those two extra soldiers did not help one pip.

This performance ended up such a blunder,
It's one that really makes me sit and wonder.
What about Sal's game here was typical?
And which of the aspects were just pure bull?
Would Qin ever backstab his ally again?
Does their huge border make this outcome win?
How huge should that border have been, anyway?
In settling north, Qin had quite a field day.
Does Saladin normally settle more towns,
And Qin usually end up sized more like those clowns?
What if Sal goes after one - Pericles?
Would he be as like to be brought to his knees?
Or if Sal rolls through Washington - what then?
Could Mansa be stopped? Would he still just win?
So many questions. So many indeed.
That game was defined by Qin's bout of greed.

In fantasy Sal went for 39 gold.
Of all my bids he was the second-most bold.
I really was hoping that he would come through.
Instead all the points that he got me were two.
All the other leaders could still score some more;
Sal was the only one shown to the door.
This was unfortunate. Really not fun.
It's feeling quite like my last fantasy run.
Most of my leaders were just first to die,
Got me some points but were done by and by.
It was just Churchill that got to round two,
What happened to the others, I have no clue.
We'll see how things go in Game Eight and Game Six,
But soon only Fred might still be in the mix.

Enough introspection! This poem is done,
But composing it was surprisingly fun.
 
That was just a lovely read
It flowed with proper speed
I wish more people would take their time
To put their thoughts into a rhyme
Be it for betting
Or in some other setting
I too had predicted Sal to be champ
But then Qin put a blanket so damp
On my fire of excitement and hopes
Now I'm the one that sits 'round and mopes
 
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All right, now for some proper game analysis.

Any newer viewers who didn't understand what the deal was with Mansa Musa certainly should know now. He executed a subpar landgrab, had only a middling number of cities, and never went and conquered anymore... yet he completely ran away with the game economically, and it didn't even take him that long to do it! The simple read of the map proved the correct one in this case: Washington and Zara were the perfect meat shield for Mansa to just do his thing uncontested. I'm sure it won't go so smoothly in some alternate histories but it did for the real thing and I doubt that's an unlikely result. I like his position in the playoffs too, as long as he can deal with whoever will start to his east. Could we be in for a Mansa vs. Justin throwdown to become the first two-time champ? I'd be here for it!

Also notable is that he won without ever fighting a single war - quite a rare feat! But I know it's been done once before... by Mansa, in the Season One playoffs, in a game that, for him, looked virtually identical to this one. So yeah, watch out for the Mansanator!

Qin was the only other leader with any real power move in this game, that of course being the backstab of Saladin. With Sal out of the picture and China double the size, nobody else seemed to be capable of contesting Qin for second place. He certainly didn't do anything else to deserve the position after that move, though, remaining committed to the Willem Gambit even in the face of a 2v1 and getting lucky to get peace when he did. I was salty about his backstab so that was definitely frustrating to see. But credit where credit is due: he executed a great landgrab and used one decisive war to get out in front of the pack, just so long as you ignore Mansa over there in the corner... Those who backed him based on his strong start clearly had the right idea.

On the other hand, despite that landgrab, he was still clearly behind Sal before the backstab, not doing anything very impressive with that land. The biggest thing that made the backstab a surprise is Qin's not-that-aggressive nature; if this had been someone more like, say, Kublai, then sure. If it were Alex it would virtually have been unexpected for it to not happen. But peaceful Qin was not somebody I saw this from. I'm still not too impressed with Qin as a leader, personally, but I will admit that I'll never have an easy time giving him full credit for this particular performance.

Poor Saladin had everything all lined up, and then suffered one of the most dramatic collapses we've seen. Other than not expanding fast enough out of the gate, he played a great game up to the backstab; not the most efficient conquest of America, sure, but he was in great shape there overall. Unfortunately, he seemed to epically bungle his defense. I don't think he should have fallen quite that easily, and as I referenced in my poem his failure to complete a castle in his first city under siege was a grave tactical error that let Qin attack faster, and if I remember the power graphs directly that attack was what really sunk him, taking out a good portion of his army while inflicting minimal casualties in return. So no, Sal was not just a victim of circumstance, he definitely had his own failures as well. Still, it feels like an overall unlucky result, and honestly at this point I feel like Sal is one of the competition's unluckiest leaders. We shall see how successful he actually proves in the alternate histories, though.

Credit where credit is due, Washington putting up a spirited defense and not pulling a Lincoln gave him time for a save and allowed him to skate by to the Wildcard. He played well in that part of the game. Before that, though, it looked like he was in the process of wasting a strong start, first to eight cities but then not expanding anymore after that, and seemingly running out of options. I don't know how much he is to blame for his consistently poor economy post the war, either - shouldn't he have been able to rebuild a bit better? Dunno. Overall a pretty meh performance from him.

Better at least than Zara, who was actively uninspiring. Poor early expansion, and then he had the game's second-best economy overall but completely failed to leverage it in any appreciable way. He fought Qin a couple of times without accomplishing anything, and in particular his dropping out of the 2v1 right as he was getting the upper hand was an extremely foolish move that cost him his chance to place. Maybe he'll accomplish more in the Wildcard, but I was doubtful of him before the game and no less doubtful after the game. He doesn't even have any really strong Alternate Histories results in past seasons and I really don't think he's that effective of an AI.

Pericles... oof. He was lucky the Greeks were ignored by the rest of the world and that Alex similarly bungled his start, because that was a terrible mishandling of an already-poor start. First to Die for him in many Alternate Histories seems quite reasonable because he will always have a tough time getting up and running from that start, and Sal may not always go east. On the other hand, he's probably not going to push for the early religion all the time, and using those early research turns on worker techs might be what he needs to flip this start around and at least be reasonably competitive. In any case, he got lucky to slip by the Wildcard, where he'll be hoping for a more competitive starting location.

Finally, after several straight seasons of impressive opening-round performances, Alexander reminded us just how low he can go to, and just why his dominant win in Season 5 was such a shock. In an economically weak start, he stagnated completely and left himself totally crippled, and just got lucky that Pericles was similarly weak and Qin such a fantastic meatshield. Honestly, this performance doesn't affect my opinion of him much, rather than just confirm that he's very much a go big or go home leader. We still need to watch out and not underestimate him too much, because when he does go big... yeah. Honestly I'm happy he made it to the Wildcard and it would be fun if we had an Alex stomp there.

Overall, I found this game very promising at the start, utterly devastating in the middle, but quite comical near the end as the rest of the field bumbled about as Mansa strolled to victory.
 
How does this game system work? We watch the AI fight each other, I guess with sped up turns?
 
Basically. It can be surprisingly interesting to see what the AI is capable of, both in a good way and in a bad way :crazyeye:.
 
Yeah, Sullla sets up an irrelevant "observer" civ in the Antarctic, enters Debug mode, and watches a set of AIs play a game of Civ 4. Takes about 3-4 hours per game usually, but is a lot more entertaining then it sounds.
 
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